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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #9,041
  • May 4, 2023 1:25am May 4, 2023 1:25am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} This is a good question and I suppose the short answer is I don't know because I don't have sufficient data to say one way or the other definitively. Now the longer answer... What I can say is I am currently tracking the frequency of these trades and I am up to day 46. Over this period of time there has been 26 signals (patterns) so we can see the frequency is just a tad over 1 every two days. A day to setup and a day to execute regardless of the day of the week. Zooming out on the 1-hour chart it looks like this mess... {image} The red...
Hi!
Do you have any overview of how the stats look in terms of how often D or D1 is hit depending on which side of the ema the C-level forms?
As in if C-level is formed below ema price hits D1 first about 75% of the time
  • #9,042
  • May 4, 2023 2:41am May 4, 2023 2:41am
Quoting Fantaburk
{quote} Hi! Do you have any overview of how the stats look in terms of how often D or D1 is hit depending on which side of the ema the C-level forms? As in if C-level is formed below ema price hits D1 first about 75% of the time
No I don't keep stats on that sort of thing because it could lead to forming a bias.

I simply take it that if trading above C then I am long and put my stop below C.. Marry this to the Average and we have a good chance of not only being correct but have a target to aim for so we can establish our risk/reward.

If the average is consistently making HH's and HL's we have a trend but that doesn't mean we cannot trade against it and I often do when a target is reached.
  • #9,043
  • May 4, 2023 8:08am May 4, 2023 8:08am
Hope everyone just got that 1-hour signal. It was a double bottom B and C so expecting a double top with A.
  • #9,044
  • May 5, 2023 1:01am May 5, 2023 1:01am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} No I don't keep stats on that sort of thing because it could lead to forming a bias. I simply take it that if trading above C then I am long and put my stop below C.. Marry this to the Average and we have a good chance of not only being correct but have a target to aim for so we can establish our risk/reward. If the average is consistently making HH's and HL's we have a trend but that doesn't mean we cannot trade against it and I often do when a target is reached.
Marinating over night, would this bias be so bad though? I guess we always have bias trading, with the trend, or towards the ema, etc etc. Being right 75% of the time, with proper money management would make you pretty good money. If the stats are more closer to 50/50 you'd know bias was unnecessary, or?

Just my 2 cents for the morning coffe, or evening in Australia
  • #9,045
  • May 5, 2023 2:33am May 5, 2023 2:33am
Quoting Fantaburk
{quote} Marinating over night, would this bias be so bad though? I guess we always have bias trading, with the trend, or towards the ema, etc etc. Being right 75% of the time, with proper money management would make you pretty good money. If the stats are more closer to 50/50 you'd know bias was unnecessary, or? Just my 2 cents for the morning coffe, or evening in Australia
To me forming a bias is akin to convincing yourself of a desired result and you could easily remain convinced when things are going wrong.

I like to keep stuff simple, a signal, target and 50% initial stop.

Look at this 5 min chart from yesterday and see the three trades I took. Each began with a Div at a ZOO point, the targets were the EMA swings and the initial stops were 50% of the target price.

My logic is simple, mechanical with very little THINKING involved.

The very worst thing that can happen to me is I loose 1% if the market suddenly bolts.
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  • #9,046
  • May 5, 2023 2:36am May 5, 2023 2:36am
Whoops I forgot to add this was a tad over 9% of profit. (Due to adding additional lots and moving the stop accordingly)
  • #9,047
  • May 5, 2023 2:43am May 5, 2023 2:43am
Today I traded the GJ just for a change and have already made my profit.

Based upon the above info can you see what I did here?
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Nothing different I can assure you.
  • #9,048
  • May 9, 2023 10:49am May 9, 2023 10:49am
See how the 1 hour chart makes it back to the EMA by looking at the 1 min chart with the relevant EMA's on it.

Price breaks above the 1 min EMA and finds support.
It breaks above the 5 min and finds support.
It breaks the 15 min and finds support.
It breaks the 30 min and finds support.

It is now testing the 1 hour.
However, the swing high target has been hit so the trade is closed. Nice 40 pips.
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  • #9,049
  • May 9, 2023 12:45pm May 9, 2023 12:45pm
ABC triangle from yesterday came good today reaching D1 for +36pips. Having trouble determining which direction the ABC is heading as sometimes it turns round quick after a quick test of the EMA and turns into a continuation trade. Just trading the ABC signals seems to fit better with my screen time and work commitments too. Keep up the good work Nala.
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  • #9,050
  • May 11, 2023 1:55am May 11, 2023 1:55am
The H1 these days is so straight, I can not find one even entry
  • #9,051
  • May 11, 2023 2:29am May 11, 2023 2:29am
Quoting Fiona96
The H1 these days is so straight, I can not find one even entry
Yes tricky. Daily average trying for the 1.25561 level and H4 has already made an ABC sell triangle. On the H1 we now have the EMA broken so maybe a retest of the EMA to find Bear support for the trip down to the 1.25572 level. M5 divergence so should be pulling back now.
  • #9,052
  • May 11, 2023 3:33am May 11, 2023 3:33am
Quoting Fiona96
The H1 these days is so straight, I can not find one even entry
You are correct a very flat EMA= The signals are small too but be patient they will improve.

Being out of the market is better than being in it and losing.

Just completed another 20 days and we had 9 signals in it on the hour.
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So, we are still averaging one every two days.
  • #9,053
  • May 11, 2023 4:07am May 11, 2023 4:07am
Again with my favorite trade setup and on the GJ.. 60 pips!
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  • #9,054
  • May 11, 2023 1:17pm May 11, 2023 1:17pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} Yes tricky. Daily average trying for the 1.25561 level and H4 has already made an ABC sell triangle. On the H1 we now have the EMA broken so maybe a retest of the EMA to find Bear support for the trip down to the 1.25572 level. M5 divergence so should be pulling back now.
Took a sell punt based on H4 ABC from 2 days ago. Instantly went against me for a 60 pip DD and on the verge of closing it but came good today for +90 pips. Closed on the H4 EMA. More practice required.
  • #9,055
  • May 13, 2023 7:45am May 13, 2023 7:45am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} Took a sell punt based on H4 ABC from 2 days ago. Instantly went against me for a 60 pip DD and on the verge of closing it but came good today for +90 pips. Closed on the H4 EMA. More practice required.
The 4 hour was more complex than you may think.

The green ABCD was hit at D in bear div.

To make it down to (1) it made a series of AB = CD's. Seen better on the 1 hour chart. We expect it to make 1 because of the bear div and the bears FOUND support.

We now see a break of (1) and price may run to (2) or (3) if the EMA is to break the lower low at (1)
My feeling is that it will range a while to allow the EMA to catch up.
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  • #9,056
  • May 15, 2023 3:29am May 15, 2023 3:29am
So far, the 4 hour seems to be forming yet another AB =CD which if the EMA is to make the lower low than (1) price should take out those Green lows from (2) to (3)
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  • #9,057
  • May 15, 2023 3:37am May 15, 2023 3:37am
Nice ABCD on the hour. Since the current trend is down then I will await it crossing below the C point.
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  • #9,058
  • May 15, 2023 7:45am May 15, 2023 7:45am
Well going short for me at C never happened but I have managed to take a few scalps going long.

I just used a few trend lines on the 1-minute chart each time price passed through the EMA I added the line.
  • #9,059
  • May 16, 2023 4:07am May 16, 2023 4:07am
This is how todays played out.

I managed to get five trades on advancing the stops as per the Magenta lines.

Closed at the 4 hour EMA which was also the average swing high.

Same od same old really.

Bull div, bulls find support and price test the swing high.

Price may well run to the 1-hour ABCD but I am a happy Chappy.
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As I write it almost touched D

And now it has.....
  • #9,060
  • May 16, 2023 4:12am May 16, 2023 4:12am
Once we have an idea of where price is heading, we can trade it accordingly.

Remember...

Timing
Entry
Target
Stop and
Money Management
= A trade.

Take out any of these elements and you are dicing with death.
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