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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #16,781
  • May 8, 2023 10:51am May 8, 2023 10:51am
I wasnt paying much attention. It was a nice opportunity, although the stop is somewhat bigger than I prefer
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  • #16,782
  • May 8, 2023 10:57am May 8, 2023 10:57am
I forgot to post my results for the last two weeks and I would like some feedback on that. I still make some stupid mistakes and it sets back profitability. there are many breakeven trades that are a few dollars. I dont know if that makes any difference but anyway here it is:

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  • #16,783
  • Edited 11:17am May 8, 2023 11:04am | Edited 11:17am
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and out
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I was not convinced it would pick up speed. It is so choppy that I think I made the right decision to grab a few points rather than hoping
  • #16,784
  • May 8, 2023 11:26am May 8, 2023 11:26am
Quoting bistolis
I forgot to post my results for the last two weeks and I would like some feedback on that. I still make some stupid mistakes and it sets back profitability. there are many breakeven trades that are a few dollars. I dont know if that makes any difference but anyway here it is: {image}
Net profit / max DD around ~3.5... that's very good. Add size and see if you can keep that ratio... then you're golden.
  • #16,785
  • May 8, 2023 12:08pm May 8, 2023 12:08pm
6E M1 - Took a pounding due to idiocy early on - great day in YM but rather show this because Euro whipped me and it took 4 in a row before I stopped and waited for a clearer break.

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  • #16,786
  • May 8, 2023 12:14pm May 8, 2023 12:14pm
M1 EURO

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M5 EURO

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PA is slow, volatility is low but volume is OK.

Trend PASR down to 5am Globex Open?

Basic PASR to 6am

Swing PASR to 7am

Trend PASR to 8am

Swing PASR to finish
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,787
  • May 8, 2023 12:34pm May 8, 2023 12:34pm
Strat, how did you see/decide we would have that consolidating wedge, rather than continued breaks? I understand no new lows, and no real break above the highs, but some of the candles inside were strong and large, and I took the bait for a while...
  • #16,788
  • Edited 1:25pm May 8, 2023 1:08pm | Edited 1:25pm
Quoting Barbaresco
Strat, how did you see/decide we would have that consolidating wedge, rather than continued breaks? I understand no new lows, and no real break above the highs, but some of the candles inside were strong and large, and I took the bait for a while...
how did you see/decide we would have that consolidating wedge, rather than continued breaks?

After the trend down, the higher probability is for PRICE to move into consolidation which the Strat Shadow showed and confirmed.

PRICE then oscillated between SR until the ellipse at "a". Volume showed that PRICE was not supported at that level so as soon as the next candle opened red, I closed. This created the dreaded "false break out" which told me there is some jiggery pokery going on by Smart Money.

Similarly, the Bond Shooting Star at "b" was not supported by volume.

The Shooting Star which followed was on exhaustion volume getting rejected by the 200.

The Swing from my blue dashed Strat Lines was a no brainer to test the Shooting Star high. Volume around that high dropped off dramatically indicating that Swing was likely done.

The inverted hammer at M1 support was on exhaustion volume and the following green candle confirmed the Swing Low. PRICE blew through previous Shooting Star resistance and stopped at next R on little volume.

Hope this helps, any questions, ask again.

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,789
  • May 8, 2023 1:24pm May 8, 2023 1:24pm
Missed this 200 point move by visiting thread - Note to Self: No distractions until end of my trading session!

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,790
  • Edited 2:24pm May 8, 2023 1:51pm | Edited 2:24pm
Thanks, yes, it all makes sense and I could've ridden that donkey had I expected a continued consolidation there. My brain said, nope, she's moving, because the previous 3 hrs of action were relatively heavy for the time of day as well as day of week, and normally, we have an uptick in volatility at CME open, and then another at NY open.

Perhaps I should've taken into account that the only news today was 30 mins after NY open instead of at CME open, as it frequently is... I was also paying too much attention to other pairs and took the 6E trades for granted. Came back to see the chart each minute and after the 4th loss I kicked myself in the ass...

Sorry for pulling your focus - I missed that last move also - in hate with 6E today and was happy she looked done - but her sweet panties came down for one last hurrah

edit - re-reading my post and I am thinking way too much - trading M1 my focus needs to be on that, not the trailing 90 minute avg volatility and other metrics, that while very useful programming algos, are superfluous info when going manual, subjective
  • #16,791
  • May 8, 2023 6:58pm May 8, 2023 6:58pm
Quoting Barbaresco
Thanks, yes, it all makes sense and I could've ridden that donkey had I expected a continued consolidation there. My brain said, nope, she's moving, because the previous 3 hrs of action were relatively heavy for the time of day as well as day of week, and normally, we have an uptick in volatility at CME open, and then another at NY open. Perhaps I should've taken into account that the only news today was 30 mins after NY open instead of at CME open, as it frequently is... I was also paying too much attention to other pairs and took the 6E trades...
My brain said, nope, she's moving, because the previous 3 hrs of action were relatively heavy for the time of day as well as day of week, and normally, we have an uptick in volatility at CME open, and then another at NY open. Perhaps I should've taken into account that the only news today was 30 mins after NY open instead of at CME open, as it frequently is...

Posted in this thread many, many times:

TRADE WHAT YOU SEE - NOT WHAT YOU THINK
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,792
  • May 9, 2023 2:08am May 9, 2023 2:08am
Good morning. I messed up my stop again. The position was taken out by a bit of volatility
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and I was too slow to enter again. On to the next one now.
  • #16,793
  • May 9, 2023 2:21am May 9, 2023 2:21am
Not my cup of tea. I guess I will have to wait for something that is more clear to me. Too many wicks and PA is all over the place.
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  • #16,794
  • May 9, 2023 3:36am May 9, 2023 3:36am
Typical timing . I just came back to the laptop and with hindsight this is how I would have traded.

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  • #16,795
  • May 9, 2023 7:52am May 9, 2023 7:52am
Quoting bistolis
Typical timing . I just came back to the laptop and with hindsight this is how I would have traded. {image}
Hopefully you can devote more time to it - already great ratios would likely improve.
  • #16,796
  • May 9, 2023 8:46am May 9, 2023 8:46am
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} Hopefully you can devote more time to it - already great ratios would likely improve.
I messed up quite a bit today with my stops.
after the open it confused me
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unfortunately I didnt hold it and I didnt buy again
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I will take a break to get my head in order
Mistakes eating at my profitability. And I just saw PnL for the week. Another mistake, since I just want to check every friday. Well I am up abit but it can for sure be alot better
  • #16,797
  • May 9, 2023 8:52am May 9, 2023 8:52am
Actually quite a few mistakes today. Maybe I should thank my lucky stars and quit for the day. Not really feeling it.
I will take a look after NY lunch if I can focus better. I will edit this post with some of the "mistakes"

EDIT:
Mostly I missed obvious trades which indicates a lack of focus
Shorted at what I saw as a good opportunity on M5/m1 at the time and then after the candle at the red arrow I took a small loss. What should have come naturally would be to go long after the red arrow.
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Next is this long indicated by the arrow that I didnt take. This a bit more complex because the spread went to 4pips and still is at the time of the screenshot.
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I took the next screenshot because I was thinking to go short, M5 hinting at a nice shooting star but 3minutes on the clock still. So I passed on this.
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I went long at this PA but it didnt work out as expected so I closed it for some peanuts.
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  • #16,798
  • May 9, 2023 12:42pm May 9, 2023 12:42pm
M1 EURO

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Slow, unstable, irregular, erratic, horrible PA today testing patience and discipline.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,799
  • May 9, 2023 1:33pm May 9, 2023 1:33pm
YM M2 - repeat of yesterday, but I rode the donkey today. 17 wins and 1 loser, although a few of those wins were minimal.

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  • #16,800
  • May 10, 2023 4:19am May 10, 2023 4:19am
I made a big mess of my trading and managed to lose some. Still in profit but not happy with my decision making.
And I missed to see this forming up while I was getting chopped trying to buy before it plunged
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