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The White Whale

  • #1
  • First Post: May 6, 2023 11:42pm May 6, 2023 11:42pm
The White Whale is my pet name for the Nasdaq 100 index, more specifically, it's what I call the NDX, a European style options contract with the Nasdaq 100 its underlying. I'll use this space to show some trades in NDX options. I invite other Nasdaq traders to post here. Do you trade /NQ, QQQ, NDX, or anything related, including any of the stocks in the Nasdaq, especially the leaders...? Well, post your related trades and trade ideas here.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2
  • May 6, 2023 11:59pm May 6, 2023 11:59pm
The top 10 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 are below, ordered by market cap. (per ChatGPT)...the index is heavily weighted toward tech names. Many of the largest stocks are there. The top 5 or six are the top-sized stocks across all indices.

  1. Apple Inc. (AAPL) - Market Cap: $3.06 trillion USD
  2. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - Market Cap: $2.44 trillion USD
  3. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - Market Cap: $1.91 trillion USD
  4. Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) - Market Cap: $1.73 trillion USD
  5. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) - Market Cap: $1.71 trillion USD
  6. Facebook, Inc. (FB) - Market Cap: $1.01 trillion USD .....should be META
  7. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) - Market Cap: $966.85 billion USD
  8. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - Market Cap: $758.88 billion USD
  9. Adobe Inc. (ADBE) - Market Cap: $277.99 billion USD
  10. PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) - Market Cap: $244.77 billion USD

"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3
  • May 7, 2023 12:04am May 7, 2023 12:04am
The top 10 in the Nasdaq 100, by % weight:

  1. Apple Inc. (AAPL) - 13.1%
  2. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - 10.4%
  3. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - 8.2%
  4. Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) - 6.4%
  5. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) - 6.4%
  6. Facebook, Inc. (FB) - 3.8%
  7. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) - 3.6%
  8. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - 2.7%
  9. PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) - 1.5%
  10. Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) - 1.4%

"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4
  • Edited 12:26am May 7, 2023 12:15am | Edited 12:26am
Pound for pound, the Nasdaq 100 is the richest index anywhere (debatable) - it has a total market cap of about $17.5 trillion USD. Compare to S&P 500 @ $39 trillion, but with 5x the names. The two are not mutually exclusive, though: 65 of the names in the SnP 500 are also in the Nasdaq 100, including most if not all of the big boys. Anyway, it's big and full of big names.

NASDAQ Fact Sheet for the Nasdaq 100: https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/docs/FS_XNDX.pdf

The NDX euro style options contract and the QQQ American options is how I try to trade it.

NASDAQ spec sheet for NDX: https://nasdaqtrader.com/content/phl...oductSheet.pdf
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5
  • May 7, 2023 12:37am May 7, 2023 12:37am
The White Whale NDX is huge and problematic to trade; since it's so big, it's thinly traded. Even at the monthlies, volume is very thin:
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...to buy at the money options out of the question - even next-day atm calls are >$45, so, most options traders are trying to trade it with spreads....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6
  • May 7, 2023 12:53am May 7, 2023 12:53am
For the next week or so anyway, I am bullish NDX. Looking to get in a May12/15 call calendar. Shown below @ 13,800. The expected weekly move showing 254, but the White Whale can melt up big time when he has been ticked off. There are lots of green weekly candles with R=500+, many over 800 and a few over 1,000. I want to catch one of those....(Friday's daily range was 231 - pretty good - but the White Whale can range up to 500 on really choice days...)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7
  • May 7, 2023 1:07am May 7, 2023 1:07am
I also shoot verts at the White Whale. I honestly think he could be ready for a big run in the next week: 14,000 by Friday would not be outrageous. The 10-lot 13900/14900 May15 vertical call spread shown will risk $800 to net over $50k if NDX hits 14,000 by Friday. Well, one can dream......
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....well, enough for a beginning ... I'll be back in the coming week if I get in some actual NDX or QQQ trades.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8
  • May 9, 2023 12:50am May 9, 2023 12:50am
I'm bullish NDX but only near term. The coming months will have event risk opps for a big drop, perhaps foremost and first will be potential debt ceiling crisis at Jun01+. BWB my preferred gambit for fotm bearish action....nothing like the the wide flys for max roi....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9
  • May 9, 2023 10:59pm May 9, 2023 10:59pm
All I got in for CPI week. If this inflation data Wed-Thurs is Fed-friendly, I'm betting on a NDX rally. Nothing in NDX puts but have bearish trades in SPX & RUT.

Shown is May12/15 13800 calendar calls, in for a hair under $1 each.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10
  • May 12, 2023 12:54pm May 12, 2023 12:54pm
Quoting The Fool
All I got in for CPI week. If this inflation data Wed-Thurs is Fed-friendly, I'm betting on a NDX rally. Nothing in NDX puts but have bearish trades in SPX & RUT. Shown is May12/15 13800 calendar calls, in for a hair under $1 each.
80% loss, whale wins again.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11
  • May 15, 2023 5:29pm May 15, 2023 5:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}80% loss, whale wins again.
this week's gambit, maybe add to it tomorrow. May19/May24 NDX 14,000 calendar calls:
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for a bit of downside chance: QQQ May19 bear puts, $320/$316:
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12
  • May 16, 2023 10:47am May 16, 2023 10:47am
Binary booger of the week is debt ceiling talks - if they come out later today and say they have a deal, or agreed to kick it down the road, the NDX will boogie north. If there is an obvious and rancorous communication breakdown, all indices will slide.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13
  • May 16, 2023 10:50am May 16, 2023 10:50am
If there is very big spike for EURUSD, it will be up. White Whale also will likely follow Blue Whale
  • #14
  • May 16, 2023 10:54am May 16, 2023 10:54am
Quoting Ihlas
If there is very big spike for EURUSD, it will be up. White Whale also will likely follow Blue Whale
concur....US indices love some weak USD.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15
  • May 16, 2023 9:27pm May 16, 2023 9:27pm
Quoting The Fool
Binary booger of the week is debt ceiling talks - if they come out later today and say they have a deal, or agreed to kick it down the road, the NDX will boogie north.
....yes lookin' good but I need Moby to make a run for it. The short leg here is May19, the monthly, an AM closer, so I need to close the spread by cob Thurs. I wanna see 300+ added into late Thurs and I could net >$10 maybe >$15 within reach. Ismael needs a break for once aaarrrggghhhh.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16
  • Edited 1:25pm May 17, 2023 12:42pm | Edited 1:25pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....yes lookin' good but I need Moby to make a run for it. The short leg here is May19, the monthly, an AM closer, so I need to close the spread by cob Thurs. I wanna see 300+ added into late Thurs and I could net >$10 maybe >$15 within reach. Ismael needs a break for once aaarrrggghhhh.
....took some to the bank @ $3.40 net, may get fatter so I will hold some out.....

...took the rest off at near $4 net out, one of these days I will catch a good move into the fat part of the P/L.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17
  • May 18, 2023 8:19am May 18, 2023 8:19am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}... ...took the rest off at near $4 net out, one of these days I will catch a good move into the fat part of the P/L.
...BOY I do some stupid shit sometimes....holding to the close today probly gonna net $25+....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18
  • May 18, 2023 8:48am May 18, 2023 8:48am
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19
  • May 18, 2023 9:57am May 18, 2023 9:57am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...BOY I do some stupid shit sometimes....holding to the close today probly gonna net $25+....
ABC a trap to watch out for, but I live to trade another day
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20
  • May 18, 2023 11:43pm May 18, 2023 11:43pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...BOY I do some stupid shit sometimes....holding to the close today probly gonna net $25+....
NDX May19 14000 calls will expire overnight worthless; the May24 calls will be worth $40+ tomorrow....so, about $30k I left on the table.......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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