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  • #18,761
  • May 3, 2023 9:54pm May 3, 2023 9:54pm
The spoos really just wants to die at 4,100....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,762
  • May 4, 2023 12:11am May 4, 2023 12:11am
Big beat in ADP Wed morning a bit drowned out in Fed noise, but maybe points to a beat @ NFP Friday. Will that be bad news? Will further bank fails be bad news? Or is that good news cuz it means the Fed will cut sooner to counter that? Maybe there really is no bad news. And the good news, well ok it's not so good. So, a sideways market. A bunch of bots trading against each other intraday....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,763
  • May 4, 2023 10:05am May 4, 2023 10:05am
Every earnings announcement I’ve seen has beaten by wide margins. This looks like an elastic about to snap. Unless as you say good news is bad in these inflationary times?
  • #18,764
  • May 4, 2023 11:48am May 4, 2023 11:48am
Quoting clemmo17
Every earnings announcement I’ve seen has beaten by wide margins. This looks like an elastic about to snap. Unless as you say good news is bad in these inflationary times?
No expectation of further ffr hikes, per the futures, and still they think the Fed will be cutting this year. Even after JPOW says, "I don't think so." over and over. The unspoken expectation is that there will be a recession (or financial crisis or..?) that the Fed will have to respond to by cutting. So - bad news = good news. And good news is also good news. I don't trust any down moves, really. I have healthy profits in all put spreads for the week, looking to close about half of everything by the end of the day, crossing fingers for a sharp slide into the close......
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,765
  • Edited 2:54pm May 4, 2023 2:29pm | Edited 2:54pm
pretty typical result on these dbl calendars. Barely breaking even going into the last day. I set these up so that the expected move for exp day either way will net profit the whole combo. Sideways action is the killer.

Today AAPL & tomorrow NFP, I'd be wise to take a lot off b4 th close....AAPL earnings likely to control Friday price action....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,766
  • May 5, 2023 1:08am May 5, 2023 1:08am
NFP consensus is 180k/3.6%; Ima say she beats to 240k and rate stays at 3.5%. That should sink equities, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't. If NFP comes in @ forecast or lower, stocks are guaranteed to rally. I took some off Thurs at a little over 2x, but I need movement Friday to break even the week, or better.....need SPX below 4050 or above 4170 to do well on SPX, SPY, & XSP spreads; need RUT >1745 or <1685. Could be a tall order. Stocks are fucked to run sideways until idk what will change that...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,767
  • May 5, 2023 9:04am May 5, 2023 9:04am
Quoting The Fool
NFP consensus is 180k/3.6%; Ima say she beats to 240k and rate stays at 3.5%. That should sink equities, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't. If NFP comes in @ forecast or lower, stocks are guaranteed to rally. I took some off Thurs at a little over 2x, but I need movement Friday to break even the week, or better.....need SPX below 4050 or above 4170 to do well on SPX, SPY, & XSP spreads; need RUT >1745 or <1685. Could be a tall order. Stocks are fucked to run sideways until idk what will change that...
...took off a pile of RUT May5/8 1785 calls for about $1.15 net, saved my accounts from ugly wound...looking at same dates 1645 puts might get close to be on those if we pull back early. SPX related trades all sucking big time, we are still stuck in the mud around 4,100. Like I said I'm not surprised stocks rally on a strong NFP. Can they keep going to 4,200 or higher? I doubt that. The sideways market affliction is still intact...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,768
  • May 6, 2023 1:33pm May 6, 2023 1:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...we are still stuck in the mud around 4,100. ...
...HUGE oi built up over the hast month+ in the 4,100 - 4,200 chop box. In the coming week, inflation data might break it open. Stocks are chomping at the bit for a run north. If CPI prints low Wed, spoos could load on 150-200 by Friday. Been a while since we've seen some 100+ dailies, but you know they are out there. Combo shown risks <$2k to net >$50k on a run to 4,300 by Friday, even more if you can get the cldr long calls into the following week.

If inflation prints hot 'n sticky, stocks might slide a 2σ, but any down runs will be short-lived, imo. This is the Summer of Love. The pandemic is over, the Fed's tightening program is over, it's a golden time. See below for longer time spreads to catch bigger bull move for even crazier profits.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,769
  • May 7, 2023 9:09pm May 7, 2023 9:09pm
These combos are set up to catch a pretty wide range in the underlying. What if there's no range? Well they don't do so well in that case. However, if they are set up with enough overlap in the mid-range, they can still net a profit in doji times. A key to trading them in the latter case is to take most or even all of it off a couple or even 3 days b4 expiry. The only reason to wait is if there have been some big moves in the early days and it seems like there can be a fat finish. Even in that event, it's good to take some off well before expiry. Worst case, if you wait too long, price goes late back to the mid-range and you can lose all the debit required to set it up...bummer.

As shown the SPX verts are meant to be 10x @ SPY or XSP verts. They are just there to guard the steep tail risk of the diagonals, but they can also generate alot of profit with the right range & time....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,770
  • May 8, 2023 4:23pm May 8, 2023 4:23pm
Another debt ceiling crisis....coming at the end of the month maybe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_U...ceiling_crisis
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,771
  • May 8, 2023 5:00pm May 8, 2023 5:00pm
I don't trade flys much, but a BWB is made for a big event risk scenario. A $200-wide SPX fly could return $50k on a <$2k stake, with a perfect finish. BWBs also have a very wide capture zone.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,772
  • Edited 1:58pm May 9, 2023 12:51pm | Edited 1:58pm
volume this low pre-CPI day suggests the data will really move things. Well one can hope.

Looking for a break of $406 or $420 by Friday early. I think downside risk has traction if there's a sticky CPI read....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,773
  • May 9, 2023 1:58pm May 9, 2023 1:58pm
here once I again I invite the SPX to shove a doji up me a.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,774
  • May 10, 2023 11:06am May 10, 2023 11:06am
6 weeks of 100-pt range, not sure if we will ever make it out....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,775
  • May 10, 2023 11:12am May 10, 2023 11:12am
Quoting The Fool
volume this low pre-CPI day suggests the data will really move things. Well one can hope. Looking for a break of $406 or $420 by Friday early. I think downside risk has traction if there's a sticky CPI read....
...lol
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,776
  • May 10, 2023 1:31pm May 10, 2023 1:31pm
Quoting The Fool
I think downside risk has traction if there's a sticky CPI read....
...seems like now the Fed-related data reads can be reliable non-movers....markets are sick of thinking about it. I know I am....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,777
  • May 11, 2023 2:44am May 11, 2023 2:44am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...seems like now the Fed-related data reads can be reliable non-movers....markets are sick of thinking about it. I know I am....
whether or not this is true, it looks like we could be working up to a bullish breakout. You need to be more positive, Fool.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,778
  • May 11, 2023 12:29pm May 11, 2023 12:29pm
Quoting The Fool
6 weeks of 100-pt range, not sure if we will ever make it out....
....brutal....not sure you could find a 6-week spoos run with a 100-pt range in the last 20 yrs...no escape in sight....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,779
  • May 11, 2023 1:17pm May 11, 2023 1:17pm
Call it....death by doji.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,780
  • May 11, 2023 4:47pm May 11, 2023 4:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....brutal....not sure you could find a 6-week spoos run with a 100-pt range in the last 20 yrs...no escape in sight....
It's a great environment for options selling!

Since you asked, here's every case where there's been a 6 week range this small or less in the past 20 years. I also included forward returns, many of which resolved to the downside!

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