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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,521
  • May 15, 2007 4:59am May 15, 2007 4:59am
I am currently short from on gbp\jpy @238.00
I am expecting a drop down to 237.50 as per the lower lows in the session...
  • #4,522
  • May 15, 2007 5:01am May 15, 2007 5:01am
Quoting stevetan2010
IMHO AUD is still very strong (I compare AUD and NZD becos they are great pals) of cos like you always say IF i did not analysis wrongly.... lol

As for AUD/JPY:
AUD/JPY has been very kind to me giving me four days worth of interest at one time I am up by +140pips (I am NOT kidding) ok nothing to brag about becos I am too greedy and thus I end up earning only 40pips. If I sold of that time, I net a positive 3%. But..... I am still learning...... T_T

GBP/JPY and USD/JPY I am betting on the interest differential which is very risky I know as GBP especially is showing signs. I am thinking in long term carry will continue but as I have said before not steeper anymore. BUT despite my analysis, i am still very green as I lost money. That is why I do need to seek advice from experts like you cesarnc IF you can. lol.....
Take this "expert" out of the statement... I'm still learning, having tough times during periods of consolidation.

Well, I'm also fan of the carry trades. But market can "carry trade" out of Cable, too. That's my concern. Today's UK CPI came to add to GBP short bias. Even if USD data comes out negative (to the USD) today won't be able to boost cable too much high, imo....

I'm much more to the Euro side right now, since Euro is in the way to a rate hike in June. And EURJPY much more fuelled up than GJ. Well, LATELY.

Gonna wait for USD news now...
  • #4,523
  • May 15, 2007 8:00am May 15, 2007 8:00am
TIC flows out in 4 min. If this turns out to be a redundant news anouncement as well then I'm leaving lol.

If strong, I'm in long until USDJPY runs out of breath.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4,524
  • May 15, 2007 8:04am May 15, 2007 8:04am
damn market... looks like it is on hold until the stock market

Data per se was pretty much mixed, looking in the currency point-of-view. But it looks favored to the stock maket. Specialy the CPI as expected...

Well, gotta wait some more... oh boy...
  • #4,525
  • May 15, 2007 8:20am May 15, 2007 8:20am
09:17 Dow is lower from yesterday, but doing very little pre market. The pattern lately has been one of, futures lower and then institutional buying driving prices higher as the session moves forward. Lets see if we get a re run of that show today
  • #4,526
  • May 15, 2007 8:47am May 15, 2007 8:47am
my god....what the hell do we need to see some real movement around here? Im really curios what are the traders really waiting for these days, coz there hasnt been a serious move since beginning of may...im frustrated.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,527
  • May 15, 2007 9:14am May 15, 2007 9:14am
Well, finally. Cash is flowing...

Dow Jones + 90, stock market appreciated the inflation figures and it is said to be looking for FED to cut rates later 2007.
  • #4,528
  • May 15, 2007 9:35am May 15, 2007 9:35am
Prayers answered. Huge buys in cable. Wake up, guys!
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4,529
  • May 15, 2007 9:47am May 15, 2007 9:47am

You guys think its safe to buy now or wait for a retracement? Just advice, of cos i wont blame u I closed my longs at 238.40 thinking that it doesnt seem likely to go over this resistance a 238.60...

We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,530
  • May 15, 2007 9:52am May 15, 2007 9:52am
Quoting gagiul

You guys think its safe to buy now or wait for a retracement? Just advice, of cos i wont blame u I closed my longs at 238.40 thinking that it doesnt seem likely to go over this resistance a 238.60...

You can buy GJ now, but you're a little too late for GBPUSD. I am 50 pips up in 15 minutes

EDIT: On second thoughts, GBPUSD looks like it has room north as well, we are coming from a big thursday dip. Go ahead man, but dont blame me
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4,531
  • May 15, 2007 9:56am May 15, 2007 9:56am

Hehe, dont worry I was long since 1.9760 on GU so I got 80 pips and out...it was a clear double bottom there, but this move really took me by surprise...i hope its not true what they are saying here,...

EDIT: Im starting to love euro, this old man became younger again...recently it moves much more than GU and Ey together with it...

10:36We are hearing this move is all stop loss related. fundamentals are not making much sense today. The only currency that is making any sense is dollar cad, and it looks heavy still

We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,532
  • May 15, 2007 9:59am May 15, 2007 9:59am
Quoting gagiul

Hehe, dont worry I was long since 1.9760 on GU so I got 80 pips and out...it was a clear double bottom there, but this move really took me by surprise...i hope its not true what they are saying here,...

10:36We are hearing this move is all stop loss related. fundamentals are not making much sense today. The only currency that is making any sense is dollar cad, and it looks heavy still

Looks like dollar wave off to me...
  • #4,533
  • May 15, 2007 10:09am May 15, 2007 10:09am
Quoting cesarnc
Looks like dollar wave off to me...
Well, not only... EJ is at its highs... If EJ pushes though, we are having a damn tsumani of carry trades here...
  • #4,534
  • May 15, 2007 10:09am May 15, 2007 10:09am
gagiul: EURUSD is nearing extremely overbought conditions now (statistical). I am going short very soon. Just my 2 cents.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4,535
  • May 15, 2007 10:11am May 15, 2007 10:11am
Quoting cesarnc
Looks like dollar wave off to me...
sorry, what do u mean by dollar wave off? (i know, newbie question)
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,536
  • May 15, 2007 10:13am May 15, 2007 10:13am
Quoting Plutonite
gagiul: EURUSD is nearing extremely overbought conditions now (statistical). I am going short very soon. Just my 2 cents.
I prefer finding EU's pullback and bouncing off 3570/80 as to go long again. I jumped off all my EU longs at 3599.

On breach of 3600 (4hr, stable) I would jump in again, too.
  • #4,537
  • May 15, 2007 10:14am May 15, 2007 10:14am
Quoting Plutonite
gagiul: EURUSD is nearing extremely overbought conditions now (statistical). I am going short very soon. Just my 2 cents.
what makes u believe that? on the daily, doesnt seem too much OB yet... talking about the hourly?
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,538
  • May 15, 2007 10:15am May 15, 2007 10:15am
Quoting gagiul
sorry, what do u mean by dollar wave off? (i know, newbie question)
dollar long positions exiting.
  • #4,539
  • May 15, 2007 10:23am May 15, 2007 10:23am
Quoting cesarnc
I prefer finding EU's pullback and bouncing off 3570/80 as to go long again. I jumped off all my EU longs at 3599.

On breach of 3600 (4hr, stable) I would jump in again, too.
This is a GJ thread so I don't want to cause any more damage , but you are quite right also. 1.3570 is (again statistically) good place for a bounce, but Euro is in a "high place" right now and down movements will be more violent that upward ones in my humble opinion. For this reason I will be looking for shorts rather than longs even though I did buy at 1.3510 and got out a few minutes ago for 80 pips. Cable is in a similar situation for me, but I am holding my longs there.

What are you trading right now cesar?
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4,540
  • May 15, 2007 10:26am May 15, 2007 10:26am
Quoting gagiul
what makes u believe that? on the daily, doesnt seem too much OB yet... talking about the hourly?
No, just mathematical models here, we deviated strongly (almost 2 deviations) from various types of "average", and are near all time highs in the first place.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
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