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Let's Trade Options

  • #18,741
  • Apr 30, 2023 4:20pm Apr 30, 2023 4:20pm
given iv skew to the put side, NDX put calendars are a lot more expensive, but you'd get the benefit of some rising iv into a drop. I'd just rather look at RUT put spreads for bear plays.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,742
  • Apr 30, 2023 4:41pm Apr 30, 2023 4:41pm
last week traders breathed a sigh of relief to see some movement in the markets - but the SPX range was only 120. Compare to 2022, when the weekly ATR held above 185 the whole year. ATR now crashed to <130, iv's cratering to 15% and below. Some say the compression of range and iv in SPX/SPY is due to the heavy volume of 0dte options trading in those names. So you only see movement out of sideways pa when one of the heavy-weighted names makes a big move - like META last week.

I did well in 2022 selling SPX/SPY strategies, but that resource is drying up for anything other than scalping, it seems.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,743
  • May 1, 2023 2:33am May 1, 2023 2:33am
Getting the 1st Republic story settled another piece of the puzzle and the Fed signaling an end to tightening will bring it into clear view: yes it's a bull market. Maybe not the season for it but there it is.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,744
  • May 1, 2023 6:07pm May 1, 2023 6:07pm
Looking for decent movement off the FOMC, May3 & into May4. I gotta believe the Fed will drop some dovish words. They will even go so far as to mention the effects of their mismanagement on SVB et al. They will flash the "PAUSE" sign, only visible to the fastest bots. There will be work to do to break well above 4200, but that will get done & I think 4,250+ will be easy by Thursday early. I will be asymmetric leaning long May4 SPX calls and also in some May4 bear put verts for good measure. We'll see what 1dte calls cost in the hours b4 FOMC, I might load em up. 2-way trade might look something like this.....
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it's wide open above 4,200 and who knows how far she'll go....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,745
  • Edited 8:45am May 2, 2023 4:29am | Edited 8:45am
JY Jun01 debt ceiling letter a bit of a surprise; RBA rate hike also; 95%+ say Wed FOMC will hike 25 bps; what a surprise it would be if they hold off. Maybe they will after the bank failure scares of the last weeks. FOMC holding off would really pop the indices.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,746
  • Edited 7:57am May 2, 2023 7:44am | Edited 7:57am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}oil price not surging now but I'd bet it will & we'll probably see the highs of last summer. I think we are about to break out into a hellacious bull market generally. That and weakening USD will benefit oil. If I wasn't a big pussy I would buy about 40,000 shares of PBR, check out that 60% forward divvy...?
PBR chart nothing special....they report earnings next week...price prolly fall to the support level at 9.50 by then and id buy if earnings lousy since im a contrarian

I have a question thefool....i dont trade options much so what should i look at to be sure i dont lose too much money on time decay on my XOM puts
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #18,747
  • May 2, 2023 8:53am May 2, 2023 8:53am
Quoting Zebi
{quote} PBR chart nothing special....I have a question thefool....i dont trade options much so what should i look at to be sure i dont lose too much money on time decay on my XOM puts
PBR all about the dividend - $6.39 forward dividend means you get $6.39 back per year on a $10 stock. Of course, that is subject to change, there are tax considerations, etc.

I can't answer your question re: XOM puts - you never showed what the trade is. But, I assume you are long puts. Theta decay is your enemy if you're long options, your friend if you short them. I recommend anyone trading options - learn all the adjustment moves, learn to spread.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,748
  • May 2, 2023 11:43am May 2, 2023 11:43am
95% down to 87% since yesterday. I think you gotta have some $ on FOMC holding off. SPX will go to 4250+ if they do.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,749
  • May 2, 2023 12:33pm May 2, 2023 12:33pm
ES looking juicy indeed if we can hold that 4200. I'm also keeping an eye on NQ. Above 13350 for upside if we can hold that. Today levels were very clean. Starting to enjoy playing around futures. Hope I can share my analysis here from time to time Either way, I always lurk here to see your trades and analysis The Fool. Love your mindset and ideas!

Keep blasting!
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The consistency that you seek is in your mind
  • #18,750
  • May 2, 2023 1:08pm May 2, 2023 1:08pm
I entered SPX and RUT May 5/8 dbl calendars b4 the close, maybe add to them tomorrow pre-FOMC. Also tomorrow maybe shoot some 1dte SPY & QQQ verts. Now I need the shit to move...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,751
  • May 2, 2023 1:12pm May 2, 2023 1:12pm
Quoting alexvmit
ES looking juicy indeed if we can hold that 4200. I'm also keeping an eye on NQ. Above 13350 for upside if we can hold that. Today levels were very clean. Starting to enjoy playing around futures. Hope I can share my analysis here from time to time Either way, I always lurk here to see your trades and analysis The Fool. Love your mindset and ideas! Keep blasting!
feel free to post any active trade stuff here. I pretty much stick to the indices but anything is fair game. Yeah I think this FOMC has shaped up to be a nice binary event, but we'll see. As noted above, I think the possibility they hold off with no hike is under-subscribed - a big surprise could mean a big move.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,752
  • May 2, 2023 9:45pm May 2, 2023 9:45pm
I closed the puts before the close. XOM looks like it will bounce..im keeping my shorts and will add hier up
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #18,753
  • May 2, 2023 10:24pm May 2, 2023 10:24pm
Quoting alexvmit
ES looking juicy indeed if we can hold that 4200. I'm also keeping an eye on NQ. Above 13350 for upside if we can hold that. Today levels were very clean. Starting to enjoy playing around futures. Hope I can share my analysis here from time to time Either way, I always lurk here to see your trades and analysis The Fool. Love your mindset and ideas! Keep blasting! {image} {image}
I got ES falling to 4000 and then 3900 on daily and weekly so price will probably be lower next week regardless of what the FED does
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #18,754
  • May 2, 2023 10:35pm May 2, 2023 10:35pm
Quoting Zebi
{quote} I got ES falling to 4000 and then 3900 on daily and weekly so price will probably be lower next week regardless of what the FED does
/ES could easily break down 90-100 pts or more over Wed-Thurs. Then we have NFP Friday and the forecast consensus is that will fall below 200,000. A big upside beat in NFP will probably spook equities - the old good news = bad news nut. I think there is a case for bullish action also - that will depend on the Fed holding back on the expected hike (unlikely, but a slim chance there) or, there could be some good dovish messages in the JPow's remarks. I always play these binary events bi-directionally, and this time I am slightly fading the upside....about 55/45 bear/bull. I got a good feeling that at least we will see some good moves.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,755
  • May 2, 2023 10:46pm May 2, 2023 10:46pm
Your scrabble word for today is 'telson'. A telson is the venomous barb at the end of a scorpion's tail. From experience I can tell you it is something to avoid.

The Friday full moon is in Scorpio, which I interpret to mean the full light of the malicious moon in Scorpio will show us wtf is wrong, what is at the root of all this dysfunction. These markets have been writhing in agony under the oafish influence of the dumbfuck Federal Reserve. And now agony is giving way to grim Death. Friday under the Scorpio full moon, would be another likely day to hear about the next bank to go tits up. Or not. But anyway, be careful. And watch your step.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,756
  • May 3, 2023 12:09pm May 3, 2023 12:09pm
Im nursing a DD on my oil longs so just short 1 ES right now
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #18,757
  • May 3, 2023 12:33pm May 3, 2023 12:33pm
Kind of a nothinburger FOMC. Only a surprise would've delivered real movement. A trip back to 4,100, oh boy. Probly a sideways market until the next bank scare.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,758
  • Edited 3:08pm May 3, 2023 12:43pm | Edited 3:08pm
gona hold the short till 4075..stop at even to keep the futures monkeys from losing me money
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #18,759
  • May 3, 2023 2:48pm May 3, 2023 2:48pm
Quoting The Fool
. Probly a sideways market until the next bank scare.
ruh....roh....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,760
  • May 3, 2023 3:08pm May 3, 2023 3:08pm
Quoting Zebi
gona hold the short till 4075..stop at even to keep the futures monkeys from losing me money

lowering my stop so i make a profit
short trump and go long the deepstate
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