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Attachments: My Live Trades
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My Live Trades

  • #61
  • May 15, 2007 5:08am May 15, 2007 5:08am
Quoting Scrat
I can tell you the basic principle of my method and maybe you can come up with something better.
My initial problem was to find a way to obtain an average value of the market. And I don't mean a regular moving average (simple, exponential, weighted etc) but one that is not that susceptible to variations. I found a formula that uses some kind of regression to average AND even forecast the price (it is widely used in physics and biology statistics and it is very reliable, I know because I work in research)...
After that, the rest is just textbook statistics: 2 stadard deviations from this average will give you a 95% rate of successful trades; if you combine this with the direction of the trend, you can filter the unsuccessful trades and always be a winner.
A simpler way to explain my system is this: I use a channel that tells me what are the most probable upper/lower limits for the price. I sell when price hits the upper limit and I buy when price hits the lower limit.
For the rest of the adjustments I use indicators for daily fib pivots, daily average and weekly average. Also vegas tunnel for H1 timeframe is very useful for my entry/exit points.
That's about it.
scrat

congrats for this excellent concept. when reading the above description i came to some thoughts that could help to further develop this concept. I suppose your trades will continue to do excellent as long as the trend models you rely on continue to go the same direction. But as soon as the trends start to change the risk is high to suffer some larger losses though the low risk entries. Therefore my question here and at the same time my suggestion is the following:

how about feeding the regression& forecasting model with trend slope data (maybe regression slope data from lower time frames) instead of the price action and thus truying to forecast the trend turning points ? Would this additional concept maybe help to avoid those potential losses ?

Many thanks
nick
  • #62
  • May 15, 2007 6:34am May 15, 2007 6:34am
very good point. this is one of the reasons why i don't completely trust my indicator yet because i haven't been using it for more than a month.
my approach to the trend change problem is this: let's say, for instance, the trend is up. in this case, i ONLY take buy (long) trades from the lower limit of my channel; if the trend changes down, the upper limit of the channel starts to descend towards my entry... but it seems that i always get a chance to close my trade is profit...
actually i have such an example in my active trades: i opened a long position on Gbp-Chf, @ 2.4144, because at that time the trend was up; now the trend has changed and i have to adjust my TP accordingly: 2.4205.
as for the rest of the idea, it's very good but unfortunately i don't know anyone that could help me with such a work. i'm afraid you just hit the limits of my channel ))


Quoting nick
scrat

congrats for this excellent concept. when reading the above description i came to some thoughts that could help to further develop this concept. I suppose your trades will continue to do excellent as long as the trend models you rely on continue to go the same direction. But as soon as the trends start to change the risk is high to suffer some larger losses though the low risk entries. Therefore my question here and at the same time my suggestion is the following:

how about feeding the regression& forecasting model with trend slope data (maybe regression slope data from lower time frames) instead of the price action and thus truying to forecast the trend turning points ? Would this additional concept maybe help to avoid those potential losses ?

Many thanks
nick
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #63
  • May 15, 2007 7:05am May 15, 2007 7:05am
i don't know what LRC is...?

Quoting howard
Hi Scrat

It seems as if LRC matches with your trades as well, that is what I have been using for some time, right now my EJ and NZD entries are around your figures, a bit higher.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #64
  • May 15, 2007 7:32am May 15, 2007 7:32am
1. Eur-Usd:
- Sell now, @ 1.3547, TP @ 1.3467
- Sell @ 1.3575, TP @ 1.3467 (pending trade)
I have a short from 1.3540.

2. Gbp-Usd:
- Sell @ 1.9905, TP @ 1.9715 (pending trade)
Looks like the down trend has slowed a little bit. There's still room for shorts, though, while longs are aggressive.

3. Aud-Usd:
- Buy @ 0.8262, TP @ 0.8362 (pending trade)

4. Nzd-Usd:
- no more short trades on N-U, the trend is changing.
- Buy @ 0.7280, TP @ 0.7390
I have a short @ 0.7374, TP @ 0.7290.

5. Usd-Chf:
- none yet

6. Usd-Cad:
- no short trades
- Buy now @ 1.1030, TP @ 1.1140 at least
I have 2 longs from 1.1040 and 1.1059, TP @ 1.1165.

7. Gbp-Jpy:
- Sell @ 239.25, TP @ 236.90 (pending trade)
I have a short from 238.52.

8. Gbp-Chf:
- no more long trades, the trend is changing down. if you are long, look to close it on a move above 2.4200, it should go to 2.4215; you can also open a short trade at the same time.
I have a long, from 2.4144 to 2.4215.

9. Eur-Jpy:
- Sell now (163.08) or @ 163.45, TP @ 161.35
I have a short, from 163.02 to 161.35.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #65
  • May 15, 2007 7:40am May 15, 2007 7:40am
Quoting Scrat
i don't know what LRC is...?
Linear Regression Channel
Regards
  • #66
  • May 15, 2007 12:12pm May 15, 2007 12:12pm
Man, this eruo/jpy trade isn't looking to good. Hope it reverses soon!!!!!!!!!!!!



Quoting Scrat
1. Eur-Usd:
- Sell now, @ 1.3547, TP @ 1.3467
- Sell @ 1.3575, TP @ 1.3467 (pending trade)
I have a short from 1.3540.

2. Gbp-Usd:
- Sell @ 1.9905, TP @ 1.9715 (pending trade)
Looks like the down trend has slowed a little bit. There's still room for shorts, though, while longs are aggressive.

3. Aud-Usd:
- Buy @ 0.8262, TP @ 0.8362 (pending trade)

4. Nzd-Usd:
- no more short trades on N-U, the trend is changing.
- Buy @ 0.7280, TP @ 0.7390
I have a short @ 0.7374, TP @ 0.7290.

5. Usd-Chf:
- none yet

6. Usd-Cad:
- no short trades
- Buy now @ 1.1030, TP @ 1.1140 at least
I have 2 longs from 1.1040 and 1.1059, TP @ 1.1165.

7. Gbp-Jpy:
- Sell @ 239.25, TP @ 236.90 (pending trade)
I have a short from 238.52.

8. Gbp-Chf:
- no more long trades, the trend is changing down. if you are long, look to close it on a move above 2.4200, it should go to 2.4215; you can also open a short trade at the same time.
I have a long, from 2.4144 to 2.4215.

9. Eur-Jpy:
- Sell now (163.08) or @ 163.45, TP @ 161.35
I have a short, from 163.02 to 161.35.
  • #67
  • May 15, 2007 1:29pm May 15, 2007 1:29pm
Quoting Scrat
very good point. this is one of the reasons why i don't completely trust my indicator yet because i haven't been using it for more than a month.
my approach to the trend change problem is this: let's say, for instance, the trend is up. in this case, i ONLY take buy (long) trades from the lower limit of my channel; if the trend changes down, the upper limit of the channel starts to descend towards my entry... but it seems that i always get a chance to close my trade is profit...
actually i have such an example in my active trades: i opened a long position on Gbp-Chf, @ 2.4144, because at that time the trend was up; now the trend has changed and i have to adjust my TP accordingly: 2.4205.
as for the rest of the idea, it's very good but unfortunately i don't know anyone that could help me with such a work. i'm afraid you just hit the limits of my channel ))
scrat

yes indeed, as long as you get the time to exit the trade without losses then everything is perfect but in many cases it starts just from the beginning going against the entries. as to my suggestion to use the slopes instead of the prices for feeding the model, i think you are the only one able to analyse it as only you know which nonlinear model you use and and how to calculate it (software).

a further suggestion would be to statistically analyze how many sigmas it needs as a S/L for protecting the positions. i suppose it needs much less than the proposed targets. but unfortunately i didn't have the time to go through your trades and it would need about 100 of them for making any usefull judgment on that. Anyway it would be extremly helpful if you could report the worst drawdown in pips after closing a position.

Many thanks again
nick
  • #68
  • May 15, 2007 4:53pm May 15, 2007 4:53pm
thanks for the great ideas. as i said, i'm only using this formula for about a month so i can't really say much. i'll have to watch it for some more time to "feel" it.
as for the SLs, i don't know... i didn't have any losing trades yet. so no drawdowns at all - and because of that, i don't see the point of using a SL. i'm trying to choose the trades that will most probable be winners (sooner or later).
great comments, thanks!

Quoting nick
scrat

yes indeed, as long as you get the time to exit the trade without losses then everything is perfect but in many cases it starts just from the beginning going against the entries. as to my suggestion to use the slopes instead of the prices for feeding the model, i think you are the only one able to analyse it as only you know which nonlinear model you use and and how to calculate it (software).

a further suggestion would be to statistically analyze how many sigmas it needs as a S/L for protecting the positions. i suppose it needs much less than the proposed targets. but unfortunately i didn't have the time to go through your trades and it would need about 100 of them for making any usefull judgment on that. Anyway it would be extremly helpful if you could report the worst drawdown in pips after closing a position.

Many thanks again
nick
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #69
  • Edited 5:23pm May 15, 2007 5:05pm | Edited 5:23pm
relax. i believe it has to come down. remember, i said that my trades last 2-4 days most of the time. and i also said that i use 1% margin on every trade i take, so i can afford to wait a little bit more. don't you EVER put a big chunk of your account on any of the trades i post; the price might go into the other direction at the beginning, that's why you need enough available margin.
and here's something else to calm you down: it's not important when you enter a trade, but when you EXIT. that's when you take the profit or assume the loss. before i used this system, i hold a g-u position for about 2 months; it went against me about 400 pips (i made a stupid mistake with its entry... and i was away for quite some time - anyway, lesson learned!) but i just didn't want to close it; last week i closed it at +40 pips. bingo.

Quoting alsup1955
Man, this eruo/jpy trade isn't looking to good. Hope it reverses soon!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #70
  • May 15, 2007 7:13pm May 15, 2007 7:13pm
Yeah, I have plenty of margin. The thing is if I would of be awake last night, I could closed for about $350 or so. But woke up it was on its way back up. It will come back , I know. I think this system is going to do well. Tx for sharing and lets make tons of pips. Appriciate you posts and lets keep it going..Tx again.......Kevin

I would love to learn your system ??????



quote=Scrat;1441968]relax. i believe it has to come down. remember, i said that my trades last 2-4 days most of the time. and i also said that i use 1% margin on every trade i take, so i can afford to wait a little bit more. don't you EVER put a big chunk of your account on any of the trades i post; the price might go into the other direction at the beginning, that's why you need enough available margin.
and here's something else to calm you down: it's not important when you enter a trade, but when you EXIT. that's when you take the profit or assume the loss. before i used this system, i hold a g-u position for about 2 months; it went against me about 400 pips (i made a stupid mistake with its entry... and i was away for quite some time - anyway, lesson learned!) but i just didn't want to close it; last week i closed it at +40 pips. bingo.[/quote]
  • #71
  • May 16, 2007 9:48am May 16, 2007 9:48am
i've been pretty busy with my work these days...
just a quick note, for who is trying to open some trades:
long a-u (0.8270), long u-cad (1.1010), short e-j (163.75), short g-j (239.20).
i'm still holding my other trades.
i'll be back after a couple of hours, after work, to post the usual update.
good luck.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #72
  • May 16, 2007 12:45pm May 16, 2007 12:45pm
Entered a short e/u this morning based on your system. It's showing a +55 and I'm having a hard time not closing it. What do you think - take the 55 pips or wait until your target is hit?
  • #73
  • May 16, 2007 12:48pm May 16, 2007 12:48pm
Don't let a winning trade turn into a loser. It could keep going down, but pips are pips!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I took the pips and ran


Quoting asyi
Entered a short e/u this morning based on your system. It's showing a +55 and I'm having a hard time not closing it. What do you think - take the 55 pips or wait until your target is hit?
  • #74
  • May 16, 2007 2:07pm May 16, 2007 2:07pm
right now e-u is at the middle of the channel, so there's still more place to run down. here's how i usually do it: i lock some of the pips (i put a SL somewhere between the current price and the entry point) and then let the trade run. i'm more of a long term guy. if you used more margin and you're looking for imediate profit, you should close it now.
it really depends on you. the only thing that matters is to get a profit, no matter how small it would be.

Quoting asyi
Entered a short e/u this morning based on your system. It's showing a +55 and I'm having a hard time not closing it. What do you think - take the 55 pips or wait until your target is hit?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #75
  • May 16, 2007 6:13pm May 16, 2007 6:13pm
Thanks guys, I did exit at 1.3512 with 53 pips. My decision was based on a BB on a 30m TF. One candle closed out of the 2d and the next in the 2d. Most profit on any one trade I've seen this week so far.
  • #76
  • May 16, 2007 11:36pm May 16, 2007 11:36pm
Im very interested to know what kind of trading technics do u use. I believe some of u hav collected many pips yesterday especially on EU and GU pairs. I have my own forex journal but sadly i cant post here at the moment since im quite new in this arena and earn/loss just a little..
  • #77
  • May 17, 2007 8:13am May 17, 2007 8:13am
I finally have a short break to look at the market and post an update.
Most of my last trades have not been profitable so far; this week is odd, the overall average movement has been reduced on all pairs so far...
I'm still holding most of my trades.

1. Eur-Usd:
- down trend
- upper limits: 1.3571/90 (sell between these values, look for vegas channel or daily fibs here)
- lower limits: 1.3439/21
- midline: 1.3504
I closed my shorts yesterday, @ 1.3515.

2. Gbp-Usd:
- down trend
- upper limits: 1.9857/1.9933 (same recommendation as above)
- lower limits: 1.9658/1.9586
- midline: 1.9759

3. Aud-Usd:
- up trend
- lower limits: 0.8243/24
- upper limits: 0.8379/97
- midline: 0.8311
It looks like the price keeps pushing lower; you can buy now, currently @ 0.8217, with TP @ 0.8317 (at least). It has to go up at some point, it already passed the lower limit of my channel and you can also see a nice RSI divergence on H1 chart. Everything points up now.

4. Nzd-Usd:
- down trend
- upper limits: 0.7384/0.7414
- lower limits: 0.7266/37
- midline: 0.7325

5. Usd-Chf:
- none yet

6. Usd-Cad:
- up trend/sideways
- lower limits: 1.0974/37
- upper limits: 1.1105/41
- midline: 1.1039

7. Gbp-Jpy:
- down trend
- upper limits: 240.04/30
- lower limits: 237.20/236.94
- midline: 238.63

8. Gbp-Chf:
- up trend/sideways
- lower limits: 2.4056
- upper limits: 2.4290
- midline: 2.4173

9. Eur-Jpy:
- down trend/sideways
- upper limits: 164.35/88
- lower limits: 161.85/32
- midline: 163.10

The midline is the safest choice for your TP as soon as you open a trade at the upper/lower channel; the price ALWAYS returns to it.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #78
  • May 17, 2007 9:03am May 17, 2007 9:03am
just a quick note: a-u has just reached the third standard deviation (3σ) from the midline. this means that the chances to go up now are the same as the 3σ confidence interval: 99.73002039367%. it also means that the chances to continue down are about 0.27%.
i'm waiting.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #79
  • May 17, 2007 9:08am May 17, 2007 9:08am
Quoting Scrat
just a quick note: a-u has just reached the third standard deviation (3σ) from the midline. this means that the chances to go up now are the same as the 3σ confidence interval: 99.73002039367%. it also means that the chances to continue down are about 0.27%.
i'm waiting.
Yep, and has reached 2σ from a larger period. Lo, the stars are aligned! Plz see the pm
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #80
  • May 17, 2007 7:10pm May 17, 2007 7:10pm
1. Eur-Usd:
- down trend, buy close to lower limits
- upper limits: 1.3562/84 (sell between these values, look for vegas channel or daily fibs here)
- lower limits: 1.3433/10
- midline: 1.3497

2. Gbp-Usd:
- down trend, buy close to lower limits
- upper limits: 1.9845/1.9926
- lower limits: 1.9648/1.9566
- midline: 1.9745

3. Aud-Usd:
- up trend
- lower limits: 0.8230/12
- upper limits: 0.8371/88
- midline: 0.8300
Theoretically, you can buy now, currently @ 0.8232, with TP @ 0.8335. I'm waiting for it to go up, and IT WILL. at least to midline (see above). just have patience.

4. Nzd-Usd:
- down trend
- upper limits: 0.7378
- lower limits: 0.7259
- midline: 0.7318

5. Usd-Chf:
- I'm not watching it now.

6. Usd-Cad:
- sideways
- lower limits: 1.0965/32
- upper limits: 1.1095/1.1130
- midline: 1.1031

7. Gbp-Jpy:
- sideways
- upper limits: 240.17/44
- lower limits: 237.32/237.05
- midline: 238.75

8. Gbp-Chf:
- up trend
- lower limits: 2.4067
- upper limits: 2.4300
- midline: 2.4184

9. Eur-Jpy:
- sideways
- upper limits: 164.45
- lower limits: 161.95
- midline: 163.20

*** The midline is the safest choice for your TP as soon as you open a trade at the upper/lower channel; the price ALWAYS returns to it. However, don't go against the trend.
Nihil Sine Deo.
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