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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #2,261
  • Apr 27, 2023 5:24am Apr 27, 2023 5:24am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} 1. Nothing is set in stone 2. I'm not a guru but I do have some tools and ideas that may help 3. Please no predictions there are other threads for this 4. Try these ideas on DEMO for at least a month 5. BIG bank and trade the smallest lots you can 6. I work on average price and hedging 7. I don't use stoploss but do use target price 8. Market can move in any direction at anytime 9. Don't blame market or news, it is what it is 10. Concentrate on your equity as you bank profits early and let losses run, so profit and loss will mainly be in...
man i have been working on this neutral trading method for years and i figured out some management tactics.
if you like us to talk about it and together try to improve it.i would be happy to co-op
  • #2,262
  • Apr 27, 2023 6:20am Apr 27, 2023 6:20am
New job.... no time for trading.... Sucks....
But I managed to squeeze out some trades and pips on cable this morning.

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  • #2,263
  • Apr 27, 2023 7:25am Apr 27, 2023 7:25am
Quoting PRM
{quote} man i have been working on this neutral trading method for years and i figured out some management tactics. if you like us to talk about it and together try to improve it.i would be happy to co-op
please post anything that could help , I'm sure others would be interested also
  • #2,264
  • Apr 27, 2023 9:51am Apr 27, 2023 9:51am
Quoting PRM
{quote} man i have been working on this neutral trading method for years and i figured out some management tactics. if you like us to talk about it and together try to improve it.i would be happy to co-op
Would be great to hear from you, I for one am open to all ideas and suggestions around the hedging concepts employed here.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,265
  • Apr 29, 2023 5:33am Apr 29, 2023 5:33am
Quoting birdland
{quote} yes, billy will be missed. he often provided very refreshing ideas and comments.
is this the Billy you're referring to?
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I have no clue where it's going
  • #2,266
  • Apr 29, 2023 9:48am Apr 29, 2023 9:48am
Quoting LifeRider
{quote} is this the Billy you're referring to? {image}
yes!
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,267
  • Apr 30, 2023 2:36am Apr 30, 2023 2:36am
Quoting birdland
what may help: put yourself in the shoes of market makers. where do they want to steer the market in order to collect a lot of liquidity? ;-)
Does this inform your regular trading?
I have no clue where it's going
  • #2,268
  • Apr 30, 2023 2:42am Apr 30, 2023 2:42am
Quoting LifeRider
{quote} Does this inform your regular trading?
yes of course. that is one of the most important thing in my trading approach.

either you go against the trend (looking for exhaustion). then you want to open a position when most of the traders are on the wrong side - liquidity on my side

or you go with the trendflow (early bird). then you want to open a position as early as possible when most of the traders running after that trend - also liquidity on my side
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,269
  • Apr 30, 2023 2:49am Apr 30, 2023 2:49am
Quoting birdland
{quote} yes of course. that is one of the most important thing in my trading approach. either you go against the trend (looking for exhaustion). then you want to open a position when most of the traders are on the wrong side - liquidity on my side or you go with the trendflow (early bird). then you want to open a position as early as possible when most of the traders running after that trend - also liquidity on my side
Someone with a large enough account could make a version of grid trading this way... Place small orders without stops everywhere you think there are orders to take...

With a larger account - I don't know how to choose yet

I don't want to hog this thread though, sorry.
I have no clue where it's going
  • #2,270
  • Apr 30, 2023 3:08am Apr 30, 2023 3:08am
Quoting LifeRider
{quote} Someone with a large enough account could make a version of grid trading this way... Place small orders without stops everywhere you think there are orders to take... With a larger account - I don't know how to choose yet I don't want to hog this thread though, sorry.
large means not large. it means NO LEVERAGE.

you can trade a $1000 account and take only 0.01 microlots and it will work.

and if you trade $100,000 with 5 lots it means leverage of 5 and you will get whipped out guaranteed;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,271
  • Apr 30, 2023 4:43am Apr 30, 2023 4:43am
Quoting birdland
{quote} yes of course. that is one of the most important thing in my trading approach. either you go against the trend (looking for exhaustion). then you want to open a position when most of the traders are on the wrong side - liquidity on my side or you go with the trendflow (early bird). then you want to open a position as early as possible when most of the traders running after that trend - also liquidity on my side
Bird explains perfectly. My version is: Take profits early so as not to get drawn into a long hedge scenario but this is inevitable and where the work lies. My trades start with the trend and then look for exhaustion. Smallest lots possible, on a good size account, with bags of patience. All this is laid out in Rob's original post, maybe add a little spice here and there but don't stray too far or the cake gets ruined.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,272
  • Edited 6:32am Apr 30, 2023 6:21am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Bird explains perfectly. My version is: Take profits early so as not to get drawn into a long hedge scenario but this is inevitable and where the work lies. My trades start with the trend and then look for exhaustion. Smallest lots possible, on a good size account, with bags of patience. All this is laid out in Rob's original post, maybe add a little spice here and there but don't stray too far or the cake gets ruined.
Getting drawn into a hedge situation whether long term or not is really not required if you adopt disciplined risk based on volatily trading which does require get wedded to positions.

Risk trading means using fixed quick profit or quick loss. It needs an eye for entry based on probability of volatility birth and quick action to take fixed profit or Loss which should be limited to yesterday's profit on a losing day.

On a profitable day, fixed intra-day loss of 1/3 of today's profit helps repair fear/greed mindset since 1/3 of the profits for 3 days can help recoup one day's loss and restore breakeven position of 3 days ago.

Hopeful trading destroys your account.
Discipline trading is the only way out for profitable account.

Patience needs deep pockets.
.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #2,273
  • Apr 30, 2023 1:43pm Apr 30, 2023 1:43pm
Thanks Simnz for your comments, you have some interesting ideas, and in the spirit of healthy debate I would reply as follows: Hedging very much is required here as this is the whole premise of the thread and is the concept we are mostly exploring. Furthermore, unless you have some inside information, all trading is hopeful. Indicators, methodologies, trading opinions and systems all rely on markets behaving tomorrow similarly to the way they behaved in the past. Yes, we are hoping that price retraces at some point in the future, in the same way you are hoping your methods will continue to be profitable. I'd agree discipline is important but I don't believe hoping for something to happen is akin to ill-discipline. One last point, there are many ways to employ hedging without getting involved in uncomfortable levels of drawdown, everyone has their own way, but yes patience is definitely a pre-requisite here.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,274
  • May 1, 2023 4:20am May 1, 2023 4:20am
Quoting LazyTrades
Thanks Simnz for your comments, you have some interesting ideas, and in the spirit of healthy debate I would reply as follows: Hedging very much is required here as this is the whole premise of the thread and is the concept we are mostly exploring. Furthermore, unless you have some inside information, all trading is hopeful. Indicators, methodologies, trading opinions and systems all rely on markets behaving tomorrow similarly to the way they behaved in the past. Yes, we are hoping that price retraces at some point in the future, in the same way...
I am sorry I used "hopeful' word wrongly instead of "wishful" one.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #2,275
  • May 2, 2023 7:57am May 2, 2023 7:57am
My morning session with around 30 trades in total

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  • #2,276
  • May 4, 2023 4:42am May 4, 2023 4:42am
Todays trading session:

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  • #2,277
  • May 5, 2023 7:42am May 5, 2023 7:42am
Any idea why everyone wants to walk in my office and phone me just before NFP, you couldn't make it up.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,278
  • May 6, 2023 2:34am May 6, 2023 2:34am
Quoting simnz
{quote} Getting drawn into a hedge situation whether long term or not is really not required if you adopt disciplined risk based on volatily trading which does require get wedded to positions. Risk trading means using fixed quick profit or quick loss. It needs an eye for entry based on probability of volatility birth and quick action to take fixed profit or Loss which should be limited to yesterday's profit on a losing day. On a profitable day, fixed intra-day loss of 1/3 of today's profit helps repair fear/greed mindset since 1/3 of the profits...
Thanks for your opinion but it's only an opinion doesn't mean it's right...
  • #2,279
  • May 10, 2023 7:36am May 10, 2023 7:36am
Love it when this happens ;-)
Thanks to CPI red news.

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  • #2,280
  • May 10, 2023 10:22am May 10, 2023 10:22am
Yes, news can certainly speed things up, I'm still nibbling away but working on some EAs to do some of the heavy lifting, life is too short to be in front of these screens all day, regardless of profit.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
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