"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,721
- Apr 21, 2023 10:40am Apr 21, 2023 10:40am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
- #18,722
- Apr 21, 2023 10:40am Apr 21, 2023 10:40am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,723
- Apr 22, 2023 9:44am Apr 22, 2023 9:44am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
COMMON observation amongst youtube gurus and other media pundits is the '23 rally has been carried on the backs of a very small group of stocks - GOOGL, APPL, MSFT, and a few more.....well they have their ERs coming in the next week, so any big beats or misses could move the market....then the Fed on May3.
Painful lessons learned from the last few weeks: ramp up the premium selling; if funding directional plays, use diagonals to reduce cost basis of those; go out in duration....
The dbl SPX diagonal below an example. I'll look to enter in coming few days, after taking off the last funding SPX IC, which as of Friday was about 50% in profit. Look to get the diags on for near $0 or small profit - plow that back into some tail risk guards in XSP or SPY.
Painful lessons learned from the last few weeks: ramp up the premium selling; if funding directional plays, use diagonals to reduce cost basis of those; go out in duration....
The dbl SPX diagonal below an example. I'll look to enter in coming few days, after taking off the last funding SPX IC, which as of Friday was about 50% in profit. Look to get the diags on for near $0 or small profit - plow that back into some tail risk guards in XSP or SPY.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,724
- Apr 23, 2023 7:36pm Apr 23, 2023 7:36pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
diag combos can be downside risk free when the diag yields a credit....plow the credit into some combo trade that guards the tail risk of the diag....as shown the 1x SPX vert would be 10x XSP or SPY....as show, risk $250 to make $8,500....I have preference to just sell SPX verts when looking to fund profit-seeking debit trades, but I like the added potential of diags, even if it's only 1 day of long call duration, as shown.....
....the matching May5/8 put diag, SPX 3950/3940, will go on for about $0.45, risk $450 to make >$10k, breaks even May5 at about 4100, needs a hedge below 3,900
....the matching May5/8 put diag, SPX 3950/3940, will go on for about $0.45, risk $450 to make >$10k, breaks even May5 at about 4100, needs a hedge below 3,900
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,725
- Apr 23, 2023 11:56pm Apr 23, 2023 11:56pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
wtf is ever gonna move these markets? You gotta believe things could break out after the FOMC...right? I will be setting up some trades to come off that very day, and the days after.....I ain't forgot about.....The White Whale! The Nasdaq is not under some kind of magic spell where we will never again see 800+ weekly candles. Well maybe it is. But all spells can be broken. Counting on JPow.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,726
- Apr 24, 2023 1:02pm Apr 24, 2023 1:02pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,728
- Apr 24, 2023 1:47pm Apr 24, 2023 1:47pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,729
- Apr 25, 2023 1:14pm Apr 25, 2023 1:14pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,730
- Apr 25, 2023 1:15pm Apr 25, 2023 1:15pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
.....I ain't forgot about.....The White Whale!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,731
- Edited 1:57pm Apr 26, 2023 11:28am | Edited 1:57pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,732
- Apr 27, 2023 4:45am Apr 27, 2023 4:45am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,733
- Apr 27, 2023 12:36pm Apr 27, 2023 12:36pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,734
- Apr 27, 2023 10:01pm Apr 27, 2023 10:01pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
Spoos'll probly dither sideways til next week, waiting for the FOMC May3. I'll be looking to enter SPX/XSP diagonal/vert combo similar to below, will be looking to pay less than shown. I expect the Fed to make some dove sounds, they have not made a big enough dent in inflation, so they should hike, but there are grinding noises coming from the banking sector, so they should not. I have told them many times that this post-pandemic situation is unique and they needs to think outside they box, let inflation run hot til it burns itself out. But they don't listen. If I have to guess a side I'll say we sell in May after the Fed hikes and get a dip back to 3900 or lower....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,735
- Apr 27, 2023 10:14pm Apr 27, 2023 10:14pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
if we're going to sell off post-FOMC, the RUT will sell off the hardest imo.
When IVs are grinding down in SPX (<0.2 in puts and <0.15 in calls now) it's not worth the risk to sell them for funding, and I will trade directionally with diagonals, being careful not to set those up too close to expected max moves, and hedging some of the tail risks with spreads in correlated names...
When IVs are grinding down in SPX (<0.2 in puts and <0.15 in calls now) it's not worth the risk to sell them for funding, and I will trade directionally with diagonals, being careful not to set those up too close to expected max moves, and hedging some of the tail risks with spreads in correlated names...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,736
- Edited 11:09pm Apr 28, 2023 10:58pm | Edited 11:09pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
If I have to guess a side I'll say we sell in May after the Fed hikes and get a dip back to 3900 or lower....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,737
- Apr 29, 2023 12:03am Apr 29, 2023 12:03am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
RUT still my goto for bearish breakdowns...it never recovered from the SVB debacle, will be dropping more if/when the next bank domino falls....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,738
- Apr 29, 2023 5:31pm Apr 29, 2023 5:31pm
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Trader | 8,133 Posts
short trump and go long the deepstate
- #18,739
- Apr 30, 2023 3:01pm Apr 30, 2023 3:01pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #18,740
- Edited 4:14pm Apr 30, 2023 3:46pm | Edited 4:14pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,269 Posts
{quote} Once you taste that White Whale meat, there's no going back....
...risk <$3,000 to net >$0.25 million, are you kidding me?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake