Let's Trade Options | Page 937 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

BELLA SYSTEM. Let's try it, let's improve it! 118 replies

Let's Trade The News V 0.4 ! 479 replies

Any Options, Bull Options & Option Bit 39 replies

Let's Trade The News! 46 replies

Let a trade develop? 17 replies

Attachments: Let's Trade Options
Exit Attachments

Let's Trade Options

  • #18,721
  • Apr 21, 2023 12:40pm Apr 21, 2023 12:40pm
Never snort a dead tape.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,722
  • Apr 21, 2023 12:40pm Apr 21, 2023 12:40pm
Never rape a dead stork.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,723
  • Apr 22, 2023 11:44am Apr 22, 2023 11:44am
COMMON observation amongst youtube gurus and other media pundits is the '23 rally has been carried on the backs of a very small group of stocks - GOOGL, APPL, MSFT, and a few more.....well they have their ERs coming in the next week, so any big beats or misses could move the market....then the Fed on May3.

Painful lessons learned from the last few weeks: ramp up the premium selling; if funding directional plays, use diagonals to reduce cost basis of those; go out in duration....

The dbl SPX diagonal below an example. I'll look to enter in coming few days, after taking off the last funding SPX IC, which as of Friday was about 50% in profit. Look to get the diags on for near $0 or small profit - plow that back into some tail risk guards in XSP or SPY.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 69 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,724
  • Apr 23, 2023 9:36pm Apr 23, 2023 9:36pm
diag combos can be downside risk free when the diag yields a credit....plow the credit into some combo trade that guards the tail risk of the diag....as shown the 1x SPX vert would be 10x XSP or SPY....as show, risk $250 to make $8,500....I have preference to just sell SPX verts when looking to fund profit-seeking debit trades, but I like the added potential of diags, even if it's only 1 day of long call duration, as shown.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 28 KB


....the matching May5/8 put diag, SPX 3950/3940, will go on for about $0.45, risk $450 to make >$10k, breaks even May5 at about 4100, needs a hedge below 3,900
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,725
  • Apr 24, 2023 1:56am Apr 24, 2023 1:56am
wtf is ever gonna move these markets? You gotta believe things could break out after the FOMC...right? I will be setting up some trades to come off that very day, and the days after.....I ain't forgot about.....The White Whale! The Nasdaq is not under some kind of magic spell where we will never again see 800+ weekly candles. Well maybe it is. But all spells can be broken. Counting on JPow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 73 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,726
  • Apr 24, 2023 3:02pm Apr 24, 2023 3:02pm
Hooray, another doji day for SPX! May5/8 IC @ -$1.45 of daily theta....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,727
  • Apr 24, 2023 3:13pm Apr 24, 2023 3:13pm
Quoting The Fool
Hooray, another doji day for SPX! May5/8 IC @ -$1.45 of daily theta....
The market should get better from here! I wouldn't be selling options at these levels. Plenty of news in the next couple of weeks.
  • #18,728
  • Apr 24, 2023 3:47pm Apr 24, 2023 3:47pm
Quoting Steamroller
{quote} The market should get better from here! I wouldn't be selling options at these levels. Plenty of news in the next couple of weeks.
IC about 1/2way done, May8 SPX 3925/3900 - 4275/4300....went on for $6.05 credit, will take off this week most likely, looking to net $4...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,729
  • Apr 25, 2023 3:14pm Apr 25, 2023 3:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}IC about 1/2way done, May8 SPX 3925/3900 - 4275/4300....went on for $6.05 credit, will take off this week most likely, looking to net $4...
took off the call side for 60c debit, nets about $3.45, watching/waiting on the puts...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,730
  • Apr 25, 2023 3:15pm Apr 25, 2023 3:15pm
Quoting The Fool
.....I ain't forgot about.....The White Whale!
...trying a little bit for this week, need to keep my harpoon arm in shape...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 72 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,731
  • Edited 3:57pm Apr 26, 2023 1:28pm | Edited 3:57pm
Doji fucked again....I am giving up. Maybe get a paper route, or take up male prostitution.

...entire indices carried on the back of MSFT, META, AMZN, just a handful of names....last chance for bears is a big AMZN miss Thurs....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,732
  • Apr 27, 2023 6:45am Apr 27, 2023 6:45am
Quoting The Fool
Doji fucked again.......
back to 4100....SPY dead money since Mar '21. Without META, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOG, it would be down >15% since then. I could see markets going sideways for years more....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,733
  • Apr 27, 2023 2:36pm Apr 27, 2023 2:36pm
NDX and QQQ call calendars coming off today for near 3 bag, made me feel better.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,734
  • Apr 28, 2023 12:01am Apr 28, 2023 12:01am
Spoos'll probly dither sideways til next week, waiting for the FOMC May3. I'll be looking to enter SPX/XSP diagonal/vert combo similar to below, will be looking to pay less than shown. I expect the Fed to make some dove sounds, they have not made a big enough dent in inflation, so they should hike, but there are grinding noises coming from the banking sector, so they should not. I have told them many times that this post-pandemic situation is unique and they needs to think outside they box, let inflation run hot til it burns itself out. But they don't listen. If I have to guess a side I'll say we sell in May after the Fed hikes and get a dip back to 3900 or lower....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 77 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,735
  • Apr 28, 2023 12:14am Apr 28, 2023 12:14am
if we're going to sell off post-FOMC, the RUT will sell off the hardest imo.

When IVs are grinding down in SPX (<0.2 in puts and <0.15 in calls now) it's not worth the risk to sell them for funding, and I will trade directionally with diagonals, being careful not to set those up too close to expected max moves, and hedging some of the tail risks with spreads in correlated names...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 56 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,736
  • Edited 1:09am Apr 29, 2023 12:58am | Edited 1:09am
Quoting The Fool
If I have to guess a side I'll say we sell in May after the Fed hikes and get a dip back to 3900 or lower....
everything looking uber bullish actually. Fed dove could break out another big week for these indices. Wild cards are more bank troubles. NDX especially primed to stack on another 500-800 in the next week. Once you taste that White Whale meat, there's no going back....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 24 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,737
  • Apr 29, 2023 2:03am Apr 29, 2023 2:03am
RUT still my goto for bearish breakdowns...it never recovered from the SVB debacle, will be dropping more if/when the next bank domino falls....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 24 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 30 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,738
  • Apr 29, 2023 7:31pm Apr 29, 2023 7:31pm
XOM reported record earnings and profits not cause oil price is surging but because of gouging and buybacks so i'll have to short some stock and buy puts and if i have any money leftover sell call LOL.....price should be near a 100 by next earnings
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2023-04-29 190216.png Size: 26 KB
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #18,739
  • Apr 30, 2023 5:01pm Apr 30, 2023 5:01pm
Quoting Zebi
XOM reported record earnings and profits not cause oil price is surging but because of gouging and buybacks so i'll have to short some stock and buy puts and if i have any money leftover sell call LOL.....price should be near a 100 by next earnings
oil price not surging now but I'd bet it will & we'll probably see the highs of last summer. I think we are about to break out into a hellacious bull market generally. That and weakening USD will benefit oil. If I wasn't a big pussy I would buy about 40,000 shares of PBR, check out that 60% forward divvy...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,740
  • Edited 6:14pm Apr 30, 2023 5:46pm | Edited 6:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Once you taste that White Whale meat, there's no going back....
....last week's NDX range was 523, & only about 1/2 of that was to the upside. What I need is some of those 800-1200 pt dingers, look at them bull runs, lookit Mar '22 - there was a >2,200 pt run in there over just 3 weeks....tired of this weakshit pa....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 42 KB


...risk <$3,000 to net >$0.25 million, are you kidding me?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 57 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
12 traders viewing now