Global Forex Broker Solidecn.com

JPY Recovers losses ahead of upcoming BOJ meeting

Japanese central bankers will meet this week to decide on monetary policy (Friday). This will be the first meeting under new Bank of Japan governor Ueda. There was some hope in the markets that change at BoJ helm will result in change in BoJ policy. However, Ueda so far has been hinting at continuation of the ultra-loose policy of his predecessor, at least for now. On the other hand, Sankei reports that the central bank may review and assess the past 10 years of monetary policy. One cannot rule out that even in spite of lack of change in policy or statement, assessment alone may offer some guidance. JPY is recovering some of its recent losses as the meeting draws closer.

USDJPY is trading higher today, due to USD strength, but has lost some ground after the Sankei news report. USDJPY continues to trade in an uptrend started at the end of March but has run into resistance in the 135 area.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

US100

Taking a look at US100 chart at H1 interval, we can see that the index has been trading in a triangle pattern for some time with a 13,000 pts area serving as the lower limit of the pattern. This is a continuation pattern so traders should be aware of a potential for a downside breakout, especially as price has reached a lower limit recently. In case of a break below 13,000 pts, textbook range of breakout from the pattern suggests possibility of an around 350-points drop, to 12,650 pts area.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

Coca-Cola on wave of strong demand and higher prices

Like other companies in the industry, the Coca-Cola Company has increased the prices of its products, but this has not affected consumer demand. In recent years, as pandemic-related restrictions have disappeared, the company has seen an increase in productivity. This is mainly due to consumers being willing to pay more for drinks in public places such as restaurants, stadiums and concerts.

Current premarket trading on Wall Street indicates that Coca-Cola (KO.US) shares have broken above the important resistance set by the local peaks of December 2022.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

US500

1. Wall Street opens slightly lower
2. Regional activity in US is shrinking
3. Goldman Sachs express its favorable outlook to energy companies
4. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY.US) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy over the weekend

On the first day of the week, Wall Street opens slightly lower as investors await corporate earnings reports from major tech companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta Platforms. Important macroeconomic data are also released this week, such as US GDP, PCE and continuation of regional activity indicators in the US.

Today there are not many publications in the macro calendar, but it is worth paying attention to two regional indices from the US. This morning Chicago index was published - index remains unchanged at -0.19 points. This is a worsening outlook compared to the beginning of the year, but still stable compared to the previous reading. At 15:30 BST Dallas index will be published which may further confirm trends in the US regional economy. This could be another argument that the Fed may end interest rate hikes in May.

Worsening macro situation and the highest recession expectations in this cycle did not prevent the experts from Goldman Sachs from recommending energy and mining stocks for cyclical exposure. Strategist David Kostin said miners are levered to China's growth through rising metals prices. And the green transition and higher domestic infrastructure spending will be tailwinds. Energy remains Goldman's preferred cyclical overweight as it trades at a discounted valuation, while oil should rise to $100 in the next 12 months.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

EURUSD

EURUSD has once again moved above the resistance zone at 1.10 USD. If this break is sustained, a continuation of the upward movement towards the next resistance level at 1.1273 is not excluded.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

BTC

Recently, many events have overlapped and influenced the prevailing sentiment on the cryptocurrency market.

On the one hand, we observe weakening bulls on the broader financial market after high index results in the first quarter of this year. Investors are trying to price in new quarterly reports published by the largest technology companies in the US and deteriorating macroeconomic data, which are starting to forecast the upcoming recession on the financial markets.

On the other hand, a lot has happened in the crypto market space. The recent hearing of SEC chairman Gary Gancler did not bring any new news. The SEC chairman continued his narrative without any explanation that all cryptocurrencies except BTC should be considered security - despite many questions from Congress Representatives.

Another wave of declines came today after the news about Coinbase suing the SEC. According to the information provided, Coinbase has taken legal action in a US federal court to force the country's securities regulator to give a definitive response to a petition it submitted in July. The petition sought clearer regulatory guidelines for the cryptocurrency industry in the US.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the BTC price continued to consolidate below $28,000, with the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization trading at around $27,240, down 0.55% in the past 24 hours. BTC has already dropped by 13% from its recent highs of $31000. The price broke through the key support level around $28,600, indicating a bearish trend in the short term. Currently, the price is at the equilibrium level of the last consolidation range, indicating that the market is in a state of indecision. However, further price action downwards is expected, with the next resistance level likely to be at $26,650. This level acted as a support in the past. Overall, the short-term trend for Bitcoin appears bearish and traders should exercise caution when taking long positions. It is essential to keep an eye on any major news events or developments in the cryptocurrency space that may impact the price of Bitcoin.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

Microsoft

Microsoft (MSFT.US), interval D1. The major supply has activated in $280 zone, it's level of resistance from summer 2022 highs. If the earnings will be weaker than expected, the major support may be at 270 or 260 USD levels, where we can see 23,6 and 38,2 Fibonacci retracement of upward wave started in the October 2022. On the other hand if the financial report will be strong, with possible optimistic guidance the major resistance at $300 level may be exceed. Also 'golden cross' formation of moving averages (SMA200, SMA100) may indicate that bulls will be still strong.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

USD dips after US survey, new home sales data

A pack of US data was released at 3:00 pm BST today. While both soft and hard data was released, the market was more focused on the former, especially Conference Board consumer confidence reading for April. CB reading turned out to be a disappointment with headline index dropping from 104.2 to 101.3 (exp. 104.0). Lower reading was driven by a drop in expectations subindex. Other data released simultaneously to CB reading turned out to be mixed - new home sales increased 9.6% MoM in March and beat expectations while Richmond Fed index came in lower than expected.

US data released at 3:00 pm BST today

1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence for April:101.3 vs 104.0 expected (104.2 previously)
2. Present situation: 151.1 vs 151.1 previously
3. Expectations: 68.1 vs 73.0 previously
4. Richmond Fed manufacturing index for April: -10.0 vs -8.0 expected (-5.0 previously)
5. New home sales for March: 683k vs 630k expected (640k previously)

Markets barely saw any reaction to the release of US data. USD ticked lower with EURUSD attempting to halt a decline in the 1.10 area while US index futures moved slightly higher following the release.

EURUSD attempts to bounce off the 1.1000 area after release of US survey and housing market data.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

Oil

Oil continues to trade near but has not yet managed to close a bullish price gap, triggered by an unexpected OPEC+ output cut announcement. A bearish sentiment can be spotted on the crude market since mid-April and is trading less than $1 per barrel away from closing a bullish gap. Taking a look at OIL.WTI at the D1 interval from a technical point of view, we can see that downward move accelerated after the price failed to break above $82 resistance. According to the Overbalance methodology, this hints that the long-term trend remains bearish. Moreover, price dropped back below 100-period EMA, what further supports the bearish outlook.

Taking a look at WTI at a lower interval (H1), we can see that price tested a recently-broken support as a resistance and, after a failure to break above it, downward move was resumed. Currently, we are observing OIL.WTI testing recent local lows in the $76.85 per barrel area and should we see a break below this zone, the way towards $75.50 - lower limit of bullish price gap - will be left open.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

AUDUSD

Investors' morning attention in the FX market turned towards Australia, where we learned the latest inflation data. Australia's headline CPI came in at 1.4% k/k in Q1 2023 (versus the expected 1.3%). However, the AUDUSD pair saw declines, dictated by a lower core inflation reading (1.2% quarter-on-quarter versus expectations of 1.4%). By weight, it is core inflation that is the more important factor creating predictions for future RBA policy.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has forecast and continues to forecast a slowdown in inflation in the near future. The bank's rhetoric comments relatively bluntly that changes in monetary policy have a lagged effect on economic activity and its indicators. The combination of these two factors persuaded the RBA to hold the cash rate steady at its April meeting, and today's decline in core inflation will add to the case for another pause at the RBA's next meeting on 2 May. At the moment, the swap market is pricing in a near 80% probability of holding rates at 3.6%.

Looking at the technical situation of the AUDUSD currency pair, we can see that the AUD is weakening against the US dollar and is currently descending into the support area defined by the March 2023 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the upward wave initiated in October 2022. The nearest region of resistance is the confluence of the 50-, 100- and 200-day exponential moving averages marked on the chart.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

Bitcoin

Bitcoin chart, D1 interval and US500 (yellow chart). Bitcoin again showed a negative correlation with the S&P500 and started an upward movement when US500 contracts weakened, influenced by weakness in the banking sector. The RSI indicator is still at relatively neutral levels indicating that the bulls still have plenty of room to possibly continue their attack. The first significant resistance level appears to be around $30,000 - $31,000, last seen in early summer 2022. The bulls has defended the bullish momentum at 23,6 Fibonacci retracement.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

Gold

Risky assets, like equities or commodity currencies, dipped shortly before the Wall Street cash session opened following a report from CNBC on First Republic Bank. According to the media piece, the US government is currently unwilling to intervene to save First Republic Bank. First Republic Bank is on watch after Q1 earnings release highlighted the bank was close to collapse during recent US banking turmoil and that this risk has not waned yet.

S&P 500 futures (US500) dropped around 0.2% on the news. Interestingly, we also saw a move lower in USD with GBPUSD jumping above 1.25 mark and EURUSD moving closer to 1.11 handle. Safe haven flows as well as weaker USD provided fuel for around-0.5% jump on gold market, with precious metal climbing above the $2,000 mark.

GOLD jumped above the 200-hour moving average and $2,000 mark following CNBC report on First Republic Bank.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

US500

1. Wall Street indices finished yesterday's trading mixed - Dow Jones and S&P 500 dropped while Nasdaq gained fueled by solid performance of Microsoft and NVIDIA
2. US index futures caught a bid after close of the session following better-than-expected earnings release from Meta Platforms
3. Meta Platforms jumped over 11% in the after-hours trading, following Q1 earnings release. Company reported Q1 EPS at $2.20 (exp. $2.03), revenue at $28.65 billion (exp. $27.65 billion) and revenue per user at $9.62 (exp. $9.30)
4. Meta had 2.04 billion daily active users in Q1 2023 (exp. 2.01 billion) while monthly active users were reported at 2.99 billion - in-line with expectations. Meta's Reality Lab reported a $3.99 billion operating loss and company expect this losses in the unit to increase this year
5. Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher today - Nikkei and Nifty 50 gained 0.1%, Kospi moved 0.4% higher and indices from China traded up to 0.7% higher. S&P/ASX 200 was a laggard and dropped 0.4%
6. DAX futures point to a slightly lower opening of the European cash session today
7. The US House of Representatives passed a bill on spending cuts and debt ceiling. However, bill still needs to win backing in the Senate
8. New prime minister of New Zealand Hipkins said that there will be no major tax changes in the upcoming budget announcement (May 18, 2023)
9. Russian deputy prime minister Novak said that OPEC+ cooperation may be extended beyond this year (current agreement is valid until end-2023)
10. Chinese industrial profits dropped 21.4% YoY in the January-March period. Profits were down 19.2% YoY in March alone
11. Cryptocurrencies are trading higher - Bitcoin gains 1.6% while Dogecoin and Ethereum jump 1.7%
12. Energy commodities trade little changed this morning - oil gains 0.3% while US natural gas prices drop 0.1%
13. Precious metals benefit from USD weakness and trade higher - gold adds 0.6%, silver gains 0.7% and platinum jumps 1.1%
14. AUD and NZD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and USD lag the most

US500 recovered part of yesterday's losses after Meta reported better-than-expected earnings. Nevertheless, the technical picture remains bearish following the recent failure to break above the upper limit of the Overbalance structure at 4,190 pts.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

USDJPY

USDJPY is one of the FX pairs that may see elevated volatility until the end of the week. This is because of a number of top-tier releases and events from the United States and Japan, scheduled for the final two days of the week. Traders will be offered a flash release of Q1 GDP report from the United States today at 1:30 pm BST and PCE inflation data for March tomorrow at 1:30 pm BST. In between those two releases, the Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy decision.

The US GDP report is expected to show a slowdown in annualized growth rate from 2.6% in Q4 2022 to 2.0% in Q1 2023. PCE inflation for March is expected to show deceleration in core measure from 4.6 to 4.5% YoY. However, a rate decision from the Bank of Japan is potentially the biggest volatility event of the three. This will be the first BoJ meeting after Ueda took over as governor and because of that there are hopes that he may push for a change in BoJ's ultra-loose monetary policy. While it looks rather unlikely that any major policy change will be delivered tomorrow, one cannot rule out significant changes in an accompanying statement. Any hints at a hawkish shift could be a significant driver for USDJPY moves.

Taking a look at USDJPY chart at H4 interval, we can see that the pair has been trading in an upward channel since late-March. Advance was halted recently at 61.8% retracement of the downward move launched on March 8, 2023 (134.77 area) and the pair started to pull back. However, unless we see a break below the lower limit of the channel and below the lower limit of the Overbalance structure later on, technical picture continues to favor buyers.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

US100 tests 13,000 pts ahead of GDP data

Reading close to market estimates could be a positive for Wall Street and may help alleviate concerns around banking sectors. Simultaneously, it should be neutral for USD as it will be more reactive to Fed. A strong GDP reading could provide fuel for USD gains as it would boost odds for more hikes from Fed. This, in turn, could be negative for Wall Street. Weak GDP report may have mixed impact on Wall Street but would most likely be negative for USD.

US100 is trading in the 13,000 pts area. Yields resumed climb (drop on TNOTE) and suggest a pullback.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

3 markets to watch this week

First week of May looks busy, especially the second half of it, as investors will be offered top-tier macro data from North America as well as rate decisions from Fed and ECB. Stock markets will continue to react to earnings. Among top earnings releases next week one can find Apple, AMD and Qualcomm. Be sure to watch GOLD, USDCAD and US100.


GOLD

Investors will get rate decisions from two major central banks next week - Fed on Wednesday, 7:00 pm BST and ECB on Thursday, 12:45 pm BST. Both banks are expected to deliver 25 basis point rate hikes. Forward guidance will be crucial - hint that rate hike cycle is about to be paused, or nears its end, could be an important mover for GOLD which has recently struggled to climb back above $2,000 per ounce. On the other hand, hawkish guidance would be negative for precious metals and can add more fuel to recent pullback.


USDCAD

While central bank decisions will be the most closely watched events in the week ahead, investors will also be offered some top-tier macro releases. USDCAD may experience elevated volatility on Friday as jobs reports for April from the United States and Canada will be released at 1:30 pm BST. Apart from that, USD may also see some moves on the release of manufacturing ISM (Monday, 3:00 pm BST), ADP employment report (Wednesday, 1:15 pm BST) and services ISM (Wednesday, 3:00 pm BST).


US100

Solid earnings reports from Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Alphabet helped lift sentiment towards the tech sector this week. Apple, the final of the 5 US mega-tech companies, will report earnings next week on Thursday after the close of the Wall Street session. Earnings reports from two semiconductor companies - Advanced Micro Devices (Tuesday, after market close) and Qualcomm (Wednesday, after market close) - may provide additional fuel for moves on Nasdaq-100 index (US100).

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

EURUSD

1. The EURUSD is in a tight bull channel. However, it is collecting much strong bear closes.
2. The odds are that the channel up from the May low is converting into a trading range.
3. The bears need to get closes below the moving average to begin to convince traders that they are taking control.
4. Overall, the market will probably begin to test prior higher lows from the channel up that began on March 24th and convert into a trading range. Traders should expect more sideways trading.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

DE 30

1. Friday marked the end of April trading and it ended with solid gains, sending DE30 to the highest level since January 2022 and US indices to back to resistance zones. For DE30 it was the fourth straight green monthly candle meaning that each month of 2023 has been positive so far.
2. Monday trading has been subdued as trading is halted on most markets due to the Labour Day holiday. US indices are trading close to Friday’s session highs and JAP225 is adding around 0.5%.
3. The Chinese PMIs were released over the weekend and they both were below expectations. The services index slid from 58.2 to 56.4 points but more worryingly the manufacturing one dropped from 51.9 to as low as 49.2 points, just around 4 months after the China reopening. It suggests that while domestic demand picked up on reopening, the global manufacturing keeps struggling.
4. Adding to those concerns, the Australian PMI dropped from 49.1 to 48 points. However, manufacturing PMI in India expanded from 56.4 to 57.2 points in a rare showing of manufacturing strength.
5. Investors were reminded of the US banking issues last week when the First Republic Bank kept suffering deposit flight and eventually the regulator announced that the Bank would be sold. The idea was to sell the Bank over the weekend, however, the process continues as of the Monday morning.
6. The markets did not seem overly concerned though, using strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta to catapult stocks towards the 2023 highs.
7. FX markets are bit mixed as of today with AUD being the strongest and the JPY the weakest currency. The JPY could be under pressure after the BoJ did not change the course of monetary policy with the new chairman at the helm.
8. Crypto markets are sliding after strong gains in recent weeks while the majority of the commodity markets are down as well.
9. The calendar for today is mostly focused on the US releases with the ISM (4pm CET) the key release.
10. The week has a chance to be very eventful with the FOMC (Wednesday) and the NFP report (Friday) the main points on the calendar.

There’s a large divergence between the US500 that is at the resistance and AUDUSD just picking up off the support zone. The Fed meeting this week should clarify the picture for the markets.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

AUDUSD

1. Asian shares were mixed on Tuesday, with some markets closed or anticipating holidays.So far, markets do not react in any particular way to the latest development in the U.S. banking sector.
2. Japan's Nikkei 225 (JAP225) is down 0.3% to 29,150 with no trading sessions in Tokyo for the rest of the week due to the Golden Week holidays.
3. EU main indices are expected to open slightly lower in today's trading session, with Germany's DE30 down 0.15% at 16,030 and France's FRA40 down 0.08% at 7,460.
4. US main CFD on indices are trading slightly higher, with US500 futures up 0.11% at 4,184 points and US100 futures up 0.13% at 13,300 points.
5. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held a policy meeting at 5:30 (BST). Unexpectedly, RBA raised the official cash rate to 3.85%. This came as a surprise to investors who had expected the RBA to keep OCR unchanged.
6. The Australian dollar rose to its highest level in a week due to an unexpected rate hike. In fact, the bank even suggested that there could be more rate increases in the future. AUDUSD is trading 1.2% higher at 0.6706.
7. The Reserve Bank Board of RBA is concerned that predictions of continued high inflation will lead to bigger rises in both prices and wages. RBA also stated that soft landing will be difficult to achieve.
8. Markets are bracing for the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, with oil prices and currencies remaining relatively stable. Oil Brent is trading at $79.4 and is up 0.05%. The US dollar depreciated slightly with EURUSD trading 0.12% higher at 1.0989.
9. Morgan Stanley is reportedly planning to start a new wave of job reductions due to concerns about expenses and the delay in dealmaking recovery due to fears of a recession. Sources suggest that a cut of around 3,000 positions globally by the end of this quarter is discussed.

The AUDUSD currency pair has risen to its highest level in a week, reaching 0.6704 points after rising from 0.66199 points. Currently, there have been no observed corrections in the price movement.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9

AUDUSD

Looking at the chart, the AUDUSD rate started to rise rapidly after 6:00 am. So far, no contrary signals have appeared, so further upward movement of AUD cannot be ruled out. Volatility on the Australian dollar may still appear during the Lowe Philip speech the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia - at 1:20 pm.

However, looking at the hourly chart, it is worth noting two geometries. The first one (blue) was already tested after 8:30 am, after which the rate set new local highs. It seems that even a correction of several dozen pips would not threaten the upward trend for now. The key intraday support is the level of 0.6668, where the lower limit of the 1:1 structure and the earlier local peak are located.

Visit Solidecn.com
Trust Pilot Score 4.9