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The Swamp

  • #108,361
  • Apr 26, 2023 6:23am Apr 26, 2023 6:23am
Quoting Boulder
Going to ..chop. month end rebalancing The day range high at 1.1046. well passed...
bears took back M5.. M15 next at 1.1020
  • #108,362
  • Apr 26, 2023 8:07am Apr 26, 2023 8:07am
Quoting Boulder
FX option expiries for Apr 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0900 2.6b 1.0925-40 2.6b 1.0950 2.5b 1.0955-60 1.7b 1.0970-75 1.4b 1.1000 1.5b 1.1030-45 2.1b
on its way..
  • #108,363
  • Apr 26, 2023 8:26am Apr 26, 2023 8:26am
1092/93 has some R. 1129/31 has some. Pa may have to wait for next month to get much above 1131ish. Possible retrace there until next month.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #108,364
  • Apr 26, 2023 8:29am Apr 26, 2023 8:29am
shorted here 1094..stop loss 1.1102
  • #108,365
  • Edited 9:00am Apr 26, 2023 8:50am | Edited 9:00am
Quoting Boulder
Going to chop... month end rebalancing The day range high at 1.1046. well passed...
I have it going to 1.1189/slip. But there may be some R 1.1129/30ish to slow or stop it this month. I dont know if 1045 is ready to support. Also 1062, or 1077 could. Month and week average range are above 1128/29. So it can go to 1.1186 anytime. Most time frames are bullish now from 1 min to week. I would not stand between atm pa and 1128. If it can not power past 1129. It may set up a tradable range below 1129/?/1045 (85ish pip range may develop)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #108,366
  • Apr 26, 2023 9:04am Apr 26, 2023 9:04am
My aud long is stuck in the stronger euro vortex. If the euro R at 1129 holds it. That may allow the aud/usd to climb off that support 0.6607 area. To get those 60 ish pips.
Its stuck with just a tiny range atm..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #108,367
  • Apr 26, 2023 9:05am Apr 26, 2023 9:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I have it going to 1.1189/slip. But there may be some R 1.1129/30ish to slow or stop it this month. I dont know if 1045 is ready to support. Also 1062, or 1077 could. Month and week average range are above 1128/29. So it can go to 1.1186 anytime. Most time frames are bullish now from 1 min to week. I would not stand between atm pa and 1128. If it can not power past 1129. It may set up a tradable range below 1129/?/1045 (85ish pip range may develop) {image}
I need this drop like other month end .. V shape // I have 1:2 RR not cash out two times already
  • #108,368
  • Apr 26, 2023 9:18am Apr 26, 2023 9:18am
Quoting Boulder
shorted here 1094..stop loss 1.1102
I booked here 1.1070.. 3RR
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  • #108,369
  • Apr 26, 2023 9:29am Apr 26, 2023 9:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I have it going to 1.1189/slip. But there may be some R 1.1129/30ish to slow or stop it this month. I dont know if 1045 is ready to support. Also 1062, or 1077 could. Month and week average range are above 1128/29. So it can go to 1.1186 anytime. Most time frames are bullish now from 1 min to week. I would not stand between atm pa and 1128. If it can not power past 1129. It may set up a tradable range below 1129/?/1045 (85ish pip range may develop) {image}
noted.. month end .. very good chance to go there in a day or two
as always,, not greedy during month end rebalancing..
  • #108,370
  • Apr 26, 2023 9:42am Apr 26, 2023 9:42am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I need this drop like other month end .. V shape // I have 1:2 RR not cash out two times already
V shape would be wild.. That 1.0973.x close was just slightly above 0973.x. Never the less, it was above. I need to allow pa a few extra pips. The low was 0964. I like to treat those as a b/o. But once it was back above 0974.. That was bullish again.
I dont know if it can break 1045 now. But I need to keep an open mind about 1027 and 1.006
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #108,371
  • Apr 26, 2023 9:48am Apr 26, 2023 9:48am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I booked here 1.1070.. 3RR {image}
I left half on table...
  • #108,372
  • Apr 26, 2023 9:49am Apr 26, 2023 9:49am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} noted.. month end .. very good chance to go there in a day or two as always,, not greedy during month end rebalancing..
I'm on auto swing.
Inserted Video

curios if 1045 develops
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #108,373
  • Apr 26, 2023 9:53am Apr 26, 2023 9:53am
1045.8
It take time to develop. This one institutions watch.
After 1.1186 this one can be critical
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #108,374
  • Apr 26, 2023 9:59am Apr 26, 2023 9:59am
Quoting gatorinla
1045.8 It take time to develop. This one institutions watch. After 1.1186 this one can be critical {image}
long 1044...stop loss, 1002, .. H1 ea is on now...
  • #108,375
  • Apr 26, 2023 11:14am Apr 26, 2023 11:14am
Quoting gatorinla
1045.8 It take time to develop. This one institutions watch. After 1.1186 this one can be critical {image}
0942 another, 1.0835 another. losing these after 1.1186 is what a down trend looks like. Larger closes indicate more meaning. The smaller algo below 1.1186 is 1.0736. If pa is tired, after 1.1186/slip it will pass these. The run to 1.1186 has 3% to complete the algo. A 1600 pip journey (algo to algo 0.9598/1.1186).

After 1.1186 there will be 2 algos of = size. One at 1.2350, the other 0.7992. Between the 2 1.0369.
Possible top if 1.1186/slip is tired.. 1.1236/1.1186.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #108,376
  • Apr 26, 2023 11:23am Apr 26, 2023 11:23am
support st if pa can not stay with closes above 1046..
below 1036 is 1011.5, .0986.6, .0961, 0936.7,0911.8.. *These should be very close.
Above 1036/45.. 1061.4, 1086.3, 1111.2, 1136.1 1161.1, 1186, 1210.9,1235.9.
*These should be good for scalping.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #108,377
  • Apr 26, 2023 11:45am Apr 26, 2023 11:45am
The high made 97% of 1.1186.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #108,378
  • Apr 26, 2023 12:26pm Apr 26, 2023 12:26pm
I will take a chance it runs to 1028. But buy just above 1023.9, with a very tight stop. Second choice 1011.5
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #108,379
  • Apr 26, 2023 12:39pm Apr 26, 2023 12:39pm
this 4h candle is suggesting some retrace.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #108,380
  • Edited 7:35pm Apr 26, 2023 7:19pm | Edited 7:35pm
Some R 1045/46 1061/62 1077 and 1.1128/29 possible.
Since the day closed below 1045/46. A breach above may come back to close back below it. To run North, it may need a day close above 1.1046.
Whatever happens to reach 1.1186/slip, may be quickly slapped down in the 1205 1222 area. It can slip some above. 43 to 50 pips above 1.1186 would be in the past range of slip. So anywhere in the 1.1186 + 100 pip area weakness in bull may be spotted. But with 1.1129 blocking, this may happen next month
Today only, pa may find support. 1030/31 1002 0945 0917 0927
I lean bullish, but that close below 1045 got my attention. Its not likely pa will breach 1.0973, 0955. until pa makes the run to 1.1186. The thing is, 1128/29 could stop a run to 1.1186 this month. Next month may open up pa to reach 1.1186 easier.
So pa has a lot of clock time before. That may allow supports like 1.0926 to be tested. I dont think it can go there. Because i think 0974 wont let it. Pa may find a range above 1.0974 to the 1.1129 area. With a dance around 1.1045 as a pp. Yesterday's high is about 50 pips above 1.1045. 50 pips below is 1.0995. I think some range has a good chance to develop. Pa may sit in a range somewhere between 1.0974 and 1.1129.

Shooting from the hip of 1.0974/1.1129= 1.1051/52. Just a little above 1.1045. It looks like this area will be popular unless bulls can b/o 1.1129 before the month ends.

I think institutions are watching 1.1045.x. So it may be popular. Sometime support, sometimes resistance. A dance of pa around it..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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