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My Live Trades

  • #41
  • May 12, 2007 4:18am May 12, 2007 4:18am
Quoting Scrat
...
I will have to get back with the targets for these trades, but I'll do it next week.
Looks like the week is over, have a nice weekend everyone!
Have a nice weekend to Scrat ...
  • #42
  • May 13, 2007 9:18pm May 13, 2007 9:18pm
Ok, a new week has just begun. As I promised, I'm back with the adjusted trades for this week.

1. Eur-Usd:
- Sell @ 1.3540, TP @ 1.3440 - executed (I have an active trade on E-U at this moment)
- Sell @ 1.3565, TP @ 1.3440 (pending trade)
The other long trade on E-U has closed (1.3480 to 1.3513) and I got +30 pips. I forgot to write that on Friday.

2. Gbp-Usd:
- Sell @ 1.9925, TP @ 1.9755 (pending trade)

3. Aud-Usd:
- Buy @ 0.8245, TP @ 0.8330 (pending order)
- Sell @ 0.8368, TP @ 0.8298 (pending order)

4. Nzd-Usd:
- none yet

5. Usd-Chf:
- none yet

6. Usd-Cad:
- Buy @ 1.1040, TP @ 1.1140 (pending trade)
I have 3 active trades on U-Cad, short, waiting to close them @ 1.1053.

7. Gbp-Jpy:
- Sell @ 239.30, TP @ 236.90 (pending trade)

8. Gbp-Chf:
- Buy @ 2.4110, TP @ 2.4265 (pending trade)
I also have an active trade, long, from 2.4144 to 2.4265.


That's it for now, I will post the upper/lower limits a little bit later.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #43
  • May 13, 2007 9:25pm May 13, 2007 9:25pm
If you have followed my trades last week, you would have got this:
+90 pips on G-U
+30 pips on G-J
+93 pips on A-U
+30 pips on E-U.
Total: +243 pips (Wednesday to Friday). NO LOSING TRADE.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #44
  • May 14, 2007 6:56am May 14, 2007 6:56am
congratulations scrat
it's awesome
and thank you for sharing your trades in this journal that I think is going to be a great thread.
  • #45
  • Edited 7:28am May 14, 2007 7:08am | Edited 7:28am
Way to go Scrat. I agree on all the trades except EURUSD. Also, EURJPY could be good for a sell at 163.30 or maybe higher, we'll see how it goes. Good luck.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #46
  • May 14, 2007 7:32am May 14, 2007 7:32am
Congratulations, I think that I am interested in your programme.
  • #47
  • May 14, 2007 7:38am May 14, 2007 7:38am
i think e-u has to go down, at least to 1.3490 area; that's where my middle line sits now, and since it's pointing down i think it'll dip more than that.
thanks for reminding me about e-j. i completely forgot about it. i actually think now it's a good time to short it, and i placed another short @ 163.40 (my fib pivot is at 163.50 so if it's going up there's a good chance to touch it).
alright, i'll be back later.

Quoting Plutonite
Way to go Scrat. I agree on all the trades except EURUSD. Also, EURJPY could be good for a sell at 163.30 or maybe higher, we'll see how it goes. Good luck.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #48
  • May 14, 2007 7:40am May 14, 2007 7:40am
thanks, it's a journal not a program. if you want to follow my trades, i strongly advise you to do it on demo for at least one month.

Quoting dapero2
Congratulations, I think that I am interested in your programme.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #49
  • May 14, 2007 7:53am May 14, 2007 7:53am
Hi:
Great trades, but can you let us know your method or system of trading please, I want to learn how to fish.

Keep up the great work
Zeetrader
  • #50
  • May 14, 2007 8:38am May 14, 2007 8:38am
Zeetrader to read Scrat post (post #5). Scrat does not want to be asked about the system or method now.
  • #51
  • Edited 1:36pm May 14, 2007 12:21pm | Edited 1:36pm
I can tell you the basic principle of my method and maybe you can come up with something better.
My initial problem was to find a way to obtain an average value of the market. And I don't mean a regular moving average (simple, exponential, weighted etc) but one that is not that susceptible to variations. I found a formula that uses some kind of regression to average AND even forecast the price (it is widely used in physics and biology statistics and it is very reliable, I know because I work in research)...
After that, the rest is just textbook statistics: 2 stadard deviations from this average will give you a 95% rate of successful trades; if you combine this with the direction of the trend, you can filter the unsuccessful trades and always be a winner.
A simpler way to explain my system is this: I use a channel that tells me what are the most probable upper/lower limits for the price. I sell when price hits the upper limit and I buy when price hits the lower limit.
For the rest of the adjustments I use indicators for daily fib pivots, daily average and weekly average. Also vegas tunnel for H1 timeframe is very useful for my entry/exit points.
That's about it.

Quoting ZeeTrader
Hi:
Great trades, but can you let us know your method or system of trading please, I want to learn how to fish.

Keep up the great work
Zeetrader
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #52
  • May 14, 2007 3:58pm May 14, 2007 3:58pm
so it's basically about fitting the price (which is, random data) into a smooth curve. i think non-linear regression is the best choice... and there are several types of non-linear regression...

Quoting Scrat
I can tell you the basic principle of my method and maybe you can come up with something better.
My initial problem was to find a way to obtain an average value of the market. And I don't mean a regular moving average (simple, exponential, weighted etc) but one that is not that susceptible to variations. I found a formula that uses some kind of regression to average AND even forecast the price (it is widely used in physics and biology statistics and it is very reliable, I know because I work in research)...
After that, the rest is just textbook statistics: 2 stadard deviations from this average will give you a 95% rate of successful trades; if you combine this with the direction of the trend, you can filter the unsuccessful trades and always be a winner.
A simpler way to explain my system is this: I use a channel that tells me what are the most probable upper/lower limits for the price. I sell when price hits the upper limit and I buy when price hits the lower limit.
For the rest of the adjustments I use indicators for daily fib pivots, daily average and weekly average. Also vegas tunnel for H1 timeframe is very useful for my entry/exit points.
That's about it.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #53
  • May 14, 2007 4:52pm May 14, 2007 4:52pm
1. Eur-Usd:
- Sell @ 1.3540, TP @ 1.3440 - active
- Sell @ 1.3575, TP @ 1.3450 (pending trade)

2. Gbp-Usd:
- Sell @ 1.9925, TP @ 1.9755 (pending trade)

3. Aud-Usd:
- Buy @ 0.8245, TP @ 0.8330 (pending trade)

4. Nzd-Usd:
- none yet

5. Usd-Chf:
- none yet

6. Usd-Cad:
- Buy @ 1.1040, TP @ 1.1140 (pending trade)
I closed my 3 active trades (1.1160, 1.1090, 1.1071) on U-Cad @ 1.1053. Total profit: +107, +37, +18 = +162 pips.

7. Gbp-Jpy:
- Sell @ 239.30, TP @ 236.90 (pending trade)

8. Gbp-Chf:
- Buy @ 2.4085, TP @ 2.4250 (pending trade)
I also have an active trade, long, from 2.4144 to 2.4250.

9. Eur-Jpy:
- Sell now (136.02)
- Sell @ 136.30
I'll post the target later.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #54
  • Edited 5:30pm May 14, 2007 4:53pm | Edited 5:30pm
Profit for this week: +141 pips on U-Cad. Nice start.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #55
  • May 14, 2007 5:20pm May 14, 2007 5:20pm
Do you think that cable will reach 1.9925? as I've seen it in your pending order
  • #56
  • May 14, 2007 5:25pm May 14, 2007 5:25pm
I must have been really tired... see corrections in red.

Quoting Scrat


6. Usd-Cad:
- Buy @ 1.1040, TP @ 1.1140 (pending trade)
I closed my 3 active trades (1.1160, 1.1090, 1.1071) on U-Cad @ 1.1060., not 1.1053.
Total profit: +100, +30, +11 = +141 pips.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #57
  • May 14, 2007 5:29pm May 14, 2007 5:29pm
i don't know that. i can only tell you that 1.9925 is close to the upper limit of the channel i'm using so IF the price will go there i will open a short. IF.

Quoting pino2
Do you think that cable will reach 1.9925? as I've seen it in your pending order
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #58
  • May 14, 2007 9:12pm May 14, 2007 9:12pm
1. Eur-Usd:
- Sell now, @ 1.3547, TP @ 1.3467
- Sell @ 1.3575, TP @ 1.3467 (pending trade)
I have a short from 1.3540.

2. Gbp-Usd:
- Sell @ 1.9890, TP @ 1.9775 (pending trade)
- Sell @ 1.9920, TP @ 1.9775 (pending trade)

3. Aud-Usd:
- Buy @ 0.8250, TP @ 0.8350 (pending trade)

4. Nzd-Usd:
- Sell now @ 0.7374, TP @ 0.7304
I have a short @ 0.7374.

5. Usd-Chf:
- none yet

6. Usd-Cad:
- Buy now @ 1.1060, TP @ 1.1140
- Buy @ 1.1040, TP @ 1.1140 (pending trade)
I have a long from 1.1159, TP @ 1.1140.

7. Gbp-Jpy:
- Sell @ 239.30, TP @ 236.90 (pending trade)
I have a short from 238.52.

8. Gbp-Chf:
- no more long trades, the trend is changing.
I have a long trade, from 2.4144 to 2.4250.

9. Eur-Jpy:
- Sell @ 163.30, TP @ 161.72
I have a short, from 163.02 to 161.72.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #59
  • May 14, 2007 10:46pm May 14, 2007 10:46pm
Seems like this is a great system. I WILL WILL BE FOLLOWING WITH GREAT INTEREST. tX FOR SHARING.
  • #60
  • May 15, 2007 3:10am May 15, 2007 3:10am
Hi Scrat

It seems as if LRC matches with your trades as well, that is what I have been using for some time, right now my EJ and NZD entries are around your figures, a bit higher.
Regards
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