What is US strength? | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strength of the Trend ? 6 replies

Signal Strength? 1 reply

VT Moving Averages of Relative Strength Index Alert Wanted 1 reply

Strength or weakness? 4 replies

Change in USD Index and its effect on USD strength 8 replies

Attachments: What is US strength?
Exit Attachments

What is US strength?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 5:55am Apr 14, 2023 5:41am | Edited 5:55am
So the general consensus is that Feds raising rates is usually considered a US positive for the currency.

The Feds mentioned that Banks and tighter credit based on these Bank Failures and bailouts might help the Feds do their work for them

I'm confused how to view this subject.
Is lower Retail Sales today a net positive then ? Or still negative ?

The direction seems volatile and seems to indicate net positive or perhaps already priced in.

As quoted by some Fed members:

 

  1. Significant credit tightening could offset the need for rate hikes, but judgement difficult in real time


What's it all about ?
Please advise.
Thanks

  • #2
  • Apr 14, 2023 6:27am Apr 14, 2023 6:27am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (6014).png Size: 342 KB

I belive it happens in this order: Hike, pause, cutting and recession. While the recession might start befor the cuttting.

So where are we now?
My guess is we might see the pause or one more hike and afer that the pause.

So i would like to see markets go up so i will have higher prices for my shorts.

Apperantly inflation is coming down, retail sales going down and unemployment claims going up, sounds all like bad news to me, so the higher markets go, the more attraktive the shorts are to me.

I personally dont buy in time like now, i wait for higher prices to sell, my longterm bias is recession. If markets react bullish to bad news, thats good for my plans.
1k to 100k Copy Trading All Time Return: 367.9%
  • #3
  • Apr 16, 2023 10:48pm Apr 16, 2023 10:48pm
There is very helpful post it's very nice i wanted this information for last 1 week now finaly i got here.


Best Regard,
Reptionall
  • #4
  • Apr 17, 2023 1:44am Apr 17, 2023 1:44am
Quoting AgentPips
So the general consensus is that Feds raising rates is usually considered a US positive for the currency. The Feds mentioned that Banks and tighter credit based on these Bank Failures and bailouts might help the Feds do their work for them I'm confused how to view this subject. Is lower Retail Sales today a net positive then ? Or still negative ? The direction seems volatile and seems to indicate net positive or perhaps already priced in. As quoted by some Fed members: Significant credit tightening could offset the need for rate hikes, but judgement...
Well it works like that: Fed provides guidance, economic and policy forecasts at their meeting, then data arrives and if too strong or too weak it causes repricing of Fed policy actions. It is like cat-and-mouse game, sometimes Fed is "ahead of the curve" (interest rates structure) sometimes behind of the curve. It's not sometimes obvious how markets should react to good or bad economic figures.
  • #5
  • Last Post: Apr 23, 2023 8:21am Apr 23, 2023 8:21am
Quoting AgentPips
So the general consensus is that Feds raising rates is usually considered a US positive for the currency. The Feds mentioned that Banks and tighter credit based on these Bank Failures and bailouts might help the Feds do their work for them I'm confused how to view this subject. Is lower Retail Sales today a net positive then ? Or still negative ? The direction seems volatile and seems to indicate net positive or perhaps already priced in. As quoted by some Fed members: Significant credit tightening could offset the need for rate hikes, but judgement...
Market response was quite dubious actually, bond yields rose which is not something that should happen during risk-off news. Better to focus on remarks of Fed representatives as incoming data is really confusing.
0 traders viewing now