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Let's Trade Options

  • #18,701
  • Apr 12, 2023 10:20am Apr 12, 2023 10:20am
not sure what it will take to break out of the chop. Maybe sideways until the Fed actually does their first cut....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,702
  • Apr 12, 2023 1:46pm Apr 12, 2023 1:46pm
ICs and other credit spreads, maybe scalping intraday. Directional trading a waste of time in a directionless market.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,703
  • Apr 13, 2023 10:31pm Apr 13, 2023 10:31pm
Quoting The Fool
ICs and other credit spreads, maybe scalping intraday. Directional trading a waste of time in a directionless market.
Banks earnings tmmrw could ignite something.

We are right back to the top of the range….
  • #18,704
  • Apr 14, 2023 1:23am Apr 14, 2023 1:23am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Banks earnings tmmrw could ignite something. We are right back to the top of the range….
yep these bigcap banks starting us off could be a green Friday. The smaller banks all next week otoh could be a bloodbath. Anyway I need SPX 4,200 to see daylight from the hole I'm in. NDX 13,300+ would be some extra gravy....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,705
  • Edited 10:16am Apr 14, 2023 8:45am | Edited 10:16am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} We are right back to the top of the range….
....top of range a good place to sell some call spreads...looking for >$7 for the May5 4300/4350 bear calls today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,706
  • Apr 15, 2023 11:14am Apr 15, 2023 11:14am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....top of range a good place to sell some call spreads...looking for >$7 for the May5 4300/4350 bear calls today....
Yep, its still a range until it isnt…
  • #18,707
  • Apr 17, 2023 12:27am Apr 17, 2023 12:27am
a light data calendar this week....monthly opex Friday....I won't be surprised to see more shit volume and weak shit moves....SPX EM for Friday is $57, ....maybe we pin 4,200 Friday or the other way maybe 4,050.....

...I'd like to see some upside esrly so I can sell about a 2-week bear call vert @ about May5 4275/4300 for $5+...tried to fill something up there Friday couldn't get it
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,708
  • Apr 17, 2023 9:11am Apr 17, 2023 9:11am
Market expecting fed rate cuts this year. But, will Fed cut if markets are rallying? The age old conundrum. Discuss.
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  • #18,709
  • Edited 3:26pm Apr 17, 2023 2:13pm | Edited 3:26pm
Quoting The Fool
a light data calendar this week....monthly opex Friday....I won't be surprised to see more shit volume and weak shit moves....SPX EM for Friday is $57, ....maybe we pin 4,200 Friday or the other way maybe 4,050..... ...I'd like to see some upside early so I can sell about a 2-week bear call vert @ about May5 4275/4300 for $5+...tried to fill something up there Friday couldn't get it
...a few more big banks ER tomorrow but the raft of regional banks starts then, too. If the banking "crisis" is over or not, maybe this week will tell.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,710
  • Apr 17, 2023 3:32pm Apr 17, 2023 3:32pm
Quoting The Fool
...I'd like to see some upside early so I can sell about a 2-week bear call vert @ about May5 4275/4300 for $5+...tried to fill something up there Friday couldn't get it
...maybe get there tomorrow on the back of big bank earnings, NFLX, idk....if SPX hops I will go May8 4300/4325 for >$5.

/RTY and /NQ have switched places a bit, but neither is as sluggish as spoos, so I will start funding with the latter and fishing moves with RUT & NDX. Bot Apr28/May1 RUT 1900 calendar calls today for 35c....moving up in duration (2-week) on time spreads to match the sluggish pa generally seen now in equities. Maybe that'll work......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,711
  • Edited 12:32pm Apr 18, 2023 8:35am | Edited 12:32pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...maybe get there tomorrow on the back of big bank earnings, NFLX, idk....if SPX hops I will go May8 4300/4325 for >$5.
...Fishing May5 SPX bear calls 4290/4320 for $5....maybe get it at 4175+....

....Never filled, entered just as spoos turned down, just my luck these days. I like to sell into strength, none to be found in sideways market....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,712
  • Apr 18, 2023 5:53pm Apr 18, 2023 5:53pm
weekly candles getting ready to dump some big red ones, maybe see it if I live long enough..
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  • #18,713
  • Edited 6:57pm Apr 19, 2023 8:54am | Edited 6:57pm
Quoting The Fool
weekly candles getting ready to dump some big red ones, maybe see it if I live long enough..
idk....bears not making much of a show.....& "never sell a dull tape"....we could be in btfd territory if the Fed comes out with a clear "pause" message on 5/3

....Away, I'm just farming theta until we get some action, trying to fill a May8 SPX IC, 3925/3900 - 4275/4300...maybe get $5.30.....

....filled just like that, about $4.05 in the calls and $1.25 in the puts. Bot some XSP calendars May 5/8, well inside the corr IC short strikes, hedging the tails...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,714
  • Apr 20, 2023 1:06am Apr 20, 2023 1:06am
MASSIVE call loadin in VIX as it sinks to a multi year (?) low, <16.5....June21 with many strikes >100k oi, @30 calls oi will go over 500,000 tomorrow....but I'm like, meh, you're always trading vol whatever you do, whether you know it or not, and the VIX options are just too squirrely...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,715
  • Apr 20, 2023 7:26am Apr 20, 2023 7:26am
LOOKING for a 2% red dinger today off good jobs data and Fed yakking.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,716
  • Apr 20, 2023 12:34pm Apr 20, 2023 12:34pm
if we print another doji today it might be a record....
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  • #18,717
  • Apr 20, 2023 3:29pm Apr 20, 2023 3:29pm
Quoting The Fool
if we print another doji today it might be a record....
SPX printed a dead dick doji, R=34. ATR has crashed below 40.

Nevertheless, I will continue beating myself upside the head with a big rubber mallet, waiting for some range. Maybe monthly opex will deliver Friday. Entered the double bull verts as shown in SPY. Just need SPY to range $2 off the doji midline @ $412 to be or better. There are big spoo prizes at 4050 and 4200.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,718
  • Apr 20, 2023 9:44pm Apr 20, 2023 9:44pm
"Towards thee I roll, thou all-destroying but unconquering whale; to the last I grapple with thee; from hell’s heart I stab at thee; for hate’s sake I spit my last breath at thee. Sink all coffins and all hearses to one common pool! and since neither can be mine, let me then tow to pieces, while still chasing thee, though tied to thee, thou damned whale! Thus, I give up the spear!” (Ahab's last words.)

From Hell's Heart I stab at theeeeee! I have no guarantee the market will ever move again, yet I carry on. Not giving up on range-capturing gambits, but know I need to bring them in, pay more for them. You get what you pay for ...I heard it said...and aye, you pays your money and you takes your chance.
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  • #18,719
  • Apr 21, 2023 1:53am Apr 21, 2023 1:53am
Been a trial trying to trade this dead price action, but everything changes, and change is coming. Conventional wisdom is stocks will bottom in a recession after it has "officially" begun (not before)....official recession will depend on GDP falling & going negative, so when will that begin? 4/27 the next prelim GDP read.....when would be good to know but what might be better - as in, what will be your bottom end targets for the recession bottom? Figure that out and start building long-date spread positions to catch it. My first idea is small caps will suffer first and worst, so I can see RUT dropping 15-20% from 1800 to under 1500. Looking at cheap diagonals in late May or June targeting 1500 and lower.....Jun16/30 1470/1450 puts, risk $1.30 to make $25 or more......
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  • #18,720
  • Apr 21, 2023 11:06am Apr 21, 2023 11:06am
Looks like 80% of the SPY options volume is 0dte, all that volume coming in today, vs oi.......have to wonder how much of the SPY shares bot/sold is just mm's matching the options flow. And when puts/calls are balanced near atm, as shown, that's a recipe for no net movement in the share price. As in today's action. There has to be some actual stock buying/selling in individual names outside the index etf's to move the market, is that happening? With enough bull or bear bias to tip the scales either way? I guess not. In this environment, the only options trading that works reliably is selling whatever premium is left....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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