Oil and Natural Gas

#NGAS / Daily

Natural Gas prices are very low after a warmer than expected winter in the US.


Futures curve is showing prices should be going up from here:


It's dangerous to initiate a position heading into the US summer, but if prices remain low or even head lower, it seems like an easy buying opportunity.

I'll try a small one first

any buddy guess how much it will go downside...

i have a new long entry around 2,04

going long brent & xtiusd

any one trade Ng... what's your idea.

It's about to blast off - 4 year cycle L-L / 2 years up, 2 years down - it can Invert as it did in 2008

Took off in FEB 2024 as expected, then it pulls back on the weekly, then goes - we're in the pullback zone right now

I believe that the price of oil is being kept down in an effort to help the US curb inflation. We are in an election year. Something has to give. I expect the price of oil to go up and the US government to give up on supporting the war in Ukraine in an effort to ease up on inflation.

I don't look at oil for some reason - I've never been able to get the data easily enough

You could be right - I focus more on the stock market

I'm a believer of cycles - if you find a recurring cycle, you can often find the economic conditions throughout it and therefore, allows you to make some predictions for the next occurrence etc "loosely" not rigid

This is my outlook for the next few years:

The stock market has a very pronounced 16-19 year cycle say average 18 years - UP/DOWN sequence which is either Inflationary or Deflationary and by deflationary I mean depressed business, need to stimulate the economy, it can sometimes mean price deflation, but in its purest form credit deflation which obviously means less credit available which only happens when the outlook is bleak for business

This cycle turned UP in 2016 - so during this next phase of the cycle, we need to expect rising Interest rates (see Int cycle below), rising inflation, generic better economy etc This should end in 2034 with a big stock market crash

Then we have the 40 year Interest cycle (see chart below) - this bottomed out and ended its down phase in 2020, the expectation was rising int rates and we got them, to curb the expected rise in inflation, which happened

This cycle is 40 years long and it started up in 2020 - you only get to double digits towards the end of the cycle last 15 years or so



and then there is a war cycle - this is due 2026-2028 and all that brings to the table

You can then piece together outlooks, expectations etc - you'll never time it perfectly, but being there or there abouts puts you ahead of the pack

So that 4 year cycle in Nat Gas - fits right over the war cycle - I think the USA is going to get involved in na war rather than walk away, whether its Ukraine or not I don't know - I just know that every 84 years the USA is involved in brutal major wars going back to when the USA was formed, if it doesn't happen this time, its the first time in their history to skip the cycle