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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #2,161
  • Mar 31, 2023 3:42am Mar 31, 2023 3:42am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} SHORT again 32736 no tp no sl ....4 x SHORTS open BE 32259 bit of a fighter this one ....
SHORT again 32865 no sl no tp
  • #2,162
  • Edited 6:02am Mar 31, 2023 3:46am | Edited 6:02am
Short EU at 1.0879, now hedged (beginning to think broker is watching, will move hedges 1 pip away from now on)
* Short banked @67, second long @64 sell again @57
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,163
  • Mar 31, 2023 4:17am Mar 31, 2023 4:17am
All GU shorts now flat. I’d built a much larger position than I normally would yesterday so I was squirming a bit under pressure. Came out good though but a lot of screen time required.

Trade well and have a great weekend!
  • #2,164
  • Mar 31, 2023 4:45am Mar 31, 2023 4:45am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} SHORT again 32865 no sl no tp
one more SHORT to go into the weekend 32930 no sl no tp
  • #2,165
  • Edited 5:10am Mar 31, 2023 5:00am | Edited 5:10am
Short S&P 4059 *closed at TP
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,166
  • Mar 31, 2023 7:02am Mar 31, 2023 7:02am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} one more SHORT to go into the weekend 32930 no sl no tp
6 x SHORTS BE 32471......don't reckon it will get there before the weekend but you never know...
  • #2,167
  • Mar 31, 2023 7:13am Mar 31, 2023 7:13am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} 6 x SHORTS BE 32471......don't reckon it will get there before the weekend but you never know...
DJIA isn't an option with my broker but that looks like a long soak, having my own fun today missing reversals by 1 pip.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,168
  • Mar 31, 2023 7:22am Mar 31, 2023 7:22am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} DJIA isn't an option with my broker but that looks like a long soak, having my own fun today missing reversals by 1 pip.
Not too bad still under 500 pips away but as the DJIA can move 1000 pips in a day its not to unattainable to hit BE before the weekend ...yes missing by a pip annoying but common, this where a massive bag of patience is needed...
  • #2,169
  • Mar 31, 2023 7:25am Mar 31, 2023 7:25am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Not too bad still under 500 pips away but as the DJIA can move 1000 pips in a day its not to unattainable to hit BE before the weekend ...yes missing by a pip annoying but common, this where a massive bag of patience is needed...
Agreed, this is what I like most about this style of trading, the requirement to be able do nothing at times.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,170
  • Mar 31, 2023 7:37am Mar 31, 2023 7:37am
Nice jump north on EU, all closed, running PL@ 4.46%.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,171
  • Apr 3, 2023 12:48am Apr 3, 2023 12:48am
Quoting birdland
{quote} i accidentally closed yesterday's short, but immediately reopened it. i went long at the blue line. i would go short again at the red line. 3 short, 1 long {image}
+91 and +43 from the shorts.

running now 1 long and 1 hort.

balance now 10221 or +2.21%

blue line i will take one long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 25 KB
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,172
  • Edited 8:30am Apr 3, 2023 1:59am | Edited 8:30am
Short EU @ 8124, will hedge @ 8237
*Long side banked, pending short @ 8660, pending long @ 8752
** Two shorts and 1 long in play, I'll be looking around 9150 for the next play.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,173
  • Apr 3, 2023 8:53am Apr 3, 2023 8:53am
Quoting birdland
{quote} +91 and +43 from the shorts. running now 1 long and 1 hort. balance now 10221 or +2.21% blue line i will take one long {image}
+122 from this long today. +256 for the day so far

red line i would add a short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 12 KB
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,174
  • Apr 3, 2023 11:20am Apr 3, 2023 11:20am
So I've been sparingly trying to apply this. Good to see that the thread is still active!

My main issues right now are understanding how to manage the losing side (seems obvious, I know, that's the whole point hah ). After some trial and error I think that maaaybe (I repeat, maybe, if someone knows better and can provide some guidance it'd be appreciated!) these are some observations:

When averaging, the risk will inevitably increase. When this happens:
1) I think it's important to keep this big position active until it reaches the finish line (flat, making it so that all the other scalps in the other direction are cashed in, and the DD from the position is back to 0) to make it worth it, risk wise. I think someone here had mentioned something about 'equity explosions', maybe it ties into that.
2) BUT there can also be runaway markets, in that case maybe having a hard % where I can unplug the cord doesn't seem too bad. At the end of the day I need a way out of the whole thing if it just goes and goes, no? Or is there another way to handle that scenario?
3) Maybe there's something about being more selective on when to add in. Instead of a rigid 'x amount of pips' or time, maybe add on a particular trigger based on whichever strategy one has.

Just some ideas. Again, if anyone has tips and tricks, they are welcome!
  • #2,175
  • Apr 3, 2023 3:31pm Apr 3, 2023 3:31pm
Just my way, so feel free to ignore the following completely, but there's no need to get positions back to the beginning. If you are able/lucky enough to pick the reversal zones (I always have a gap between buy and sells) those trades can cancel each other out meaning your banked trades make the basket profitable. For me, the key is being comfortable waiting for price to come to you (patience). Hope it helps.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,176
  • Apr 4, 2023 12:50am Apr 4, 2023 12:50am
Quoting birdland
{quote} +122 from this long today. +256 for the day so far red line i would add a short. {image}
+41 from a long, now short also triggered. more than +400 pips closed so far.

2 shorts running...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 11 KB
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,177
  • Apr 4, 2023 1:54am Apr 4, 2023 1:54am
Quoting Rfs199
So I've been sparingly trying to apply this. Good to see that the thread is still active! My main issues right now are understanding how to manage the losing side (seems obvious, I know, that's the whole point hah ). After some trial and error I think that maaaybe (I repeat, maybe, if someone knows better and can provide some guidance it'd be appreciated!) these are some observations: When averaging, the risk will inevitably increase. When this happens: 1) I think it's important to keep this big position active until it reaches the...
Hi Rfs, good question and the short answer is it's up to you to find your jive. You are right, somedays put me right in the can like yesterday on GU, I'd developed a new model and totally effed up so lost about 2 months of work in one day, totally this idiots fault for using a wonky calculator and half a brain.

While trying to work things out I'd stick to the same position sizes for now and work out your max loss over an average range and an average gap size per trade, you don't have to stick to it like grid trading but at least you'll not be trading on a wish and a prayer. Lets say maybe 5% over 10 trades spread over 200 pips. This would be my 1st starting point of tuning a plan trading this style.
  • #2,178
  • Apr 4, 2023 1:56am Apr 4, 2023 1:56am
Managing my EU shorts = doing very little, I'll continue dropping shorts but at higher timeframes near potential reversal points. I think there are a few of us now looking forward to the next spell of dollar strength.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,179
  • Apr 4, 2023 7:48am Apr 4, 2023 7:48am
Quoting birdland
{quote} +41 from a long, now short also triggered. more than +400 pips closed so far. 2 shorts running... {image}
above the red line i will add another short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 10 KB
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,180
  • Apr 4, 2023 11:20am Apr 4, 2023 11:20am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Somewhere around here is my trading account....
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