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US100

It seems that we may be ending the downward phase on Wall Street, given the more than 20% rebound from the bottom. The US100 is having its best quarter since Q2 2020! In fact, if it weren't for the high inflation problem in February and then the banking crisis in March, then the US100 could even be above 14,000 points. Currently, the goal of investors will be to break through the area of 13450 points, where the range of the previous similar correction is located, and 13700 points, which are the peaks of the previous correction as well.

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Oil

1. Output cut came as a surprise as media reports prior to the weekend hinted that OPEC+ JMMC will likely recommend to keep output unchanged at a meeting today
2. Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mixed today - Nikkei and S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.5% each while Kospi dropped 0.2% and Nifty 50 traded 0.1% lower. Indices from China traded up to 1.2% higher
3. European and US index futures trade slightly below Friday's cash closing prices
4. Goldman Sachs updated oil price forecasts following a surprise OPEC output cut. The Bank now expects Brent price of $95 per barrel in December 2023 ($90 prior) and $100 per barrel in December 2024 ($97 prior)
5. ECB De Guindos said that while headline CPI in euro area is likely to fall this year, core inflation will likely stay firm. ECB members said that European banking sector is robust and that there is ample liquidity in the sector
6. Fed's Waller said that recent data shows that inflation can be brought down with causing damage to the labor market
7. Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped from 51.6 to 50.0 in March (exp. 51.7)
8. Australian building permits increased 4.0% MoM in February (exp. -2.6% MoM)
9. Cryptocurrencies are trading lower. Bitcoin drops 1%, Ethereum trades 0.4% lower while Dogecoin and Ripple dip 1.8%
10. Precious metals are pulling back amid USD strengthening - gold and platinum trade 0.9-1.0% lower while silver drops almost 2%
11. USD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while NZD and EUR lag the most

A surprise output cut from OPEC triggered a spike on the oil market. WTI (OIL.WTI) launched a new week near the $81.20 resistance zone, marked with the upper limit of previous trading range as well as the upper limit of the Overbalance structure. However, bulls failed to break above it on the first attempt.

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EURUSD

Today we are going to analyze the EUR/USD for a longer period of time, in order to get a broader view of the major currency pair. Over the last few months the euro has been recovering against the US dollar, but recently the bullish momentum has slowed down. But could the current rally be compromised?
On the weekly chart, we can see that the price continues to be supported relatively well by the 50-period EMA, although it continues to struggle to break above the recent highs reached this year.

Dollar Index - Weekly Time Frame

On the other hand, when we look at the dollar index chart, we can see that there is room for further declines in the USD. Above all, when we identify the chart pattern - head and shoulders which could support further declines if the price breaks below the neckline of the pattern.
Furthermore, the improvement in market sentiment also supports this bearish USD scenario.

AUD leads the gains this morning.

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Markets ignore European PMI revisions

Revisions of European manufacturing PMI indices for March were released this morning. Spanish reading showed quite noticeable beat but releases from other countries, like France and Germany, were revisions and came in close to flash estimates. As a result, there was no major reaction to those on the market. EURUSD trades mostly flat on the day while European equity markets trade slightly higher on the day.

Manufacturing PMIs for March

1. Spain: 51.3 vs 50.1 expected
2. Italy: 51.1 vs 51.0 expected
3. France (final): 47.3 vs 47.7 first release
4. Germany (final): 44.7 vs 44.4 first release
5. Eurozone (final): 47.3 vs 47.1 first release

While EURUSD has seen nearly no reaction to PMI releases, the pair saw some interesting moves earlier in the day and a pin bar pattern near an important price zone can be spotted on the daily chart.

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Oil

OPEC+ members announced massive voluntary oil output cuts over the weekend, triggering a spike in oil prices at the beginning of new week's trade. A total cut of 1.157 million barrels was announced by 8 OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Those cuts will take effect from May and will remain in force until the year of the year. On top of that, Russia announced that its 500 thousand barrel output cut, which was set to end by the end of June 2023, will be extended until the end of 2023. This is a massive reduction in supply, amounting to more than 1% of global output, and it should not come as a surprise that oil prices jumped over 5% at the beginning of a new week. However, it should be noted that such massive oil output cuts may also hint that OPEC has some serious concerns about demand outlook. Having said that, this may not be bullish for oil prices in the long-term. OPEC+ Joint Minister Monitoring Committee is meeting today and will provide recommendations on policy. It was widely expected that recommendation will be for no change in the output but weekend announcements created uncertainty.

OPEC: 1,079k bpd

1. Saudi Arabia: 500k bpd
2. Iraq: 211k bpd
3. United Arab Emirates: 144k bpd
4. Kuwait: 128k bpd
5. Algeria: 48k bpd
6. Oman: 40k bpd
7. Gabon: 8k bpd

OPEC+: 578k bpd

1. Kazakhstan: 78k bpd
2. Russia: extension of 500k bpd cut until end of the year (was set to end in June)

Brent (OIL) launched this week's trading with a big bullish price gap but those gains started to be erased later on. Nevertheless, oil continues to trade around 5% higher on the day. A point to note, however, is that price did not manage to reach a key resistance zone in the $87 area, marked with previous price reactions and the upper limit of the Overbalance structure. This means that the outlook remains bearish and an attempt to fill the bullish price gap cannot be ruled out. The $80 area is the first support to watch in such a scenario.

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Gold

1. OPEC+'s surprising decision to cut production has lifted oil prices. OIL.WTI quotations jumped above the $81 level.
2. Germany's DAX tested Friday's highs, but ultimately closed the day 0.3% lower. In turn, we saw slight increases in France, where the CAC40 added 0.32%, or the UK, the FTSE100 gained 0.54%.
3. Gold is doing quite well on Monday, with the precious metal's quotations rising less than 1% and approaching once again the $2,000 barrier, which should be seen as short-term resistance.
4. Treasury bonds are gaining on a wave of manufacturing ISM data, which eased concerns about lingering inflationary pressures in the U.S. and overshadowed the potential impact of OPEC+ oil production cuts on another jump in the economy's goods and services prices. U.S. TNOTE's and German BUND's are both gaining more than 0.3% in today's session.
5. US industrial activity indicators published today came in below expectations. Both the PMI and ISM readings showed that actuality in the sector is declining.
6. Looking at the forex market, we can observe weakness in the US currency. The EURUSD pair even managed to go above 1.0900, but we are seeing a slight pullback in the evening hours. Nevertheless, the main sentiment on the pair remains upward in the medium term.
7. The crypto market did not show any decisive direction today. The major digital currencies are trading mixed. In the evening hours, bitcoin remains in the regions of the reference level.

GOLD quotes are currently testing resistance stemming from the line drawn after the recent tops. If pierced above, resistance at the $2,000 level may be tested. In turn, its crossing may lead to the generation of another upward wave.

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Dogecoin - Chart of the Day

Dogecoin saw massive moves yesterday in the evening, with the coin rallying around 30% in less than 2 hours. While other cryptocurrencies also saw some gains, none experienced as big a jump as Dogecoin. It should not come as a surprise as a trigger for the move higher was Dogecoin-specific. Elon Musk changed Twitter's logo to Shiba Inu dog, a 'logo' of Dogecoin and its supporters. The move triggered an instant rally in Dogecoin, sending it to the levels not seen since early-December 2022. Musk himself explained that he is simply delivering onto promise he made in a tweet some time ago that he will buy Twitter and change its logo to Dogecoin logo.

Taking a look at the Dogecoin chart at the D1 interval, we can see that the strong upward move launched yesterday in the evening is continuing today. While price erased some of initial gains yesterday, Dogecoin bulls regained ground today and are pushing the coin towards the 0.10 area. A point to note is that the price of cryptocurrency managed to break above a mid-term support zone in the 0.0890 area, marked with previous price reactions as well as the downward trendline. A break above this area brightened technical outlook for the bulls and a test of the resistance zone ranging below 0.11 handle cannot be ruled out in the coming days.

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Morning Wrap - TNOTE

1. Wall Street indices ended yesterday's session mostly lower. Investor sentiment was weighed down primarily by macro data readings and comments from the Fed's Mester, which point to a slowdown in the US economy.
2. The S&P 500 fell 0.25%, the Dow Jones gained 0.24% and the Russell 2000 small-cap index lost 0.99%. The Nasdaq index of technology companies was the weakest performer, losing 1.07%.
3. With the specter of a global recession widening, US 10-year government bond yields are under particular scrutiny by investors, having fallen to their lowest level since September 2022 (3.29% zone). Currently, the money market sees a 48% chance of a 25 basis point hike by the Fed at its May meeting and a 52% chance of keeping rates unchanged.
4. Asia-Pacific indices traded mostly lower - the Nikkei fell 1.3%, the S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.4%, the Kospi lost 1.32% and the Nifty 50 traded 0.15% higher.
5. In the FX market, we are seeing capital outflows to safe haven currencies, i.e. the US dollar and the Japanese yen, among others. The EURUSD pair is recording slight declines and breaking out below the support zone at 1.09. At the moment, pairs linked to the currencies of the antipodes are recording the biggest declines.
6. China plans to cut tax burdens and fees totaling CNY1.8 billion for the corporate sector.
7. China's Caixin PMI index for services recorded an increase and came in at 57.8 (55 was expected, previously it was 55).
8. Former BOJ banker Kazuo Momma commented that the Yield Curve Control mechanism may be terminated this month.
9. China may ban exports of technology used to produce high-performance rare earth magnets.
10. Energy commodities are posting moderate declines this morning. WTI crude oil is losing 0.5%, while natural gas is down 0.4%.
11. Gold is slightly decelerating from its recent upward impulse and is currently consolidating in a zone near 2013 USD. UBS raised its target price for gold at the end of March (2024) to $2200 (previously $2100)
12. There is mixed sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is currently losing nearly 0.5%, while Ethereum is down 1.16%. On the other hand, smaller projects such as Maker and Iota are gaining more than 3.5%.

Weak macroeconomic data and in-between comments from Fed bankers, which indicate that given the high economic and systemic uncertainty, the rate hike cycle may be coming to an end, are bolstering sentiment in the debt market.

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USDCHF rebounds to the 38.2% retracement of the week's trading range

The USDCHF fell sharply in the early NY session and in the process moved below the swing low going back to early August 2021 at 0.90178 (see red numbered circles on the daily chart above). The low price today reached to the nice round number of 0.9000 where some traders put a toe in the bearish water. Those buyers are breathing a sigh of relief as the price has indeed rebounded. The price has rebounded to a high of 0.90756.

That has taken the price above the February 2 low at 0.9058, and tested the swing low from March at 0.90706. The high correct price has extended to 0.90756 just above the March low.

Looking at the hourly chart, the move up off the low tested the 38.2% retracement of the week's trading range at 0.9075. Getting above the 38.2% retracement is the minimum retracement target of a trend like move i.e. the move down from Monday's high.

A move above the 38.2% retracement would next target the 50% retracement at 0.9098. Move above that and focus will turn toward the falling 100 hour moving average and swing area near 0.9120. Getting above all those levels would ultimately be needed if the buyers are to be taken more seriously.
Nevertheless, they could still get short-term satisfaction on a move above the 38.2% retracement.

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May ECB rate hike unsure after Lane comments

Lane, the ECB's chief economist gives a question mark on the May decision, pointing out that it will depend on inflation perpsectives, including the underlying ones. In view of this, Lane stresses that this is why the ECB does not give guidance for the next meeting and everything depends on the data and its outlook. On the other hand, he says that if the data performs as in the projections, May should bring a hike. However, it is unclear what kind. The market, on the other hand, is currently pricing that it should be a smaller hike, or 25 bps.

The EUR is not reacting to these reports, although we have seen slight increases on the pair in recent minutes. Further strong declines in US and European yields are progressing. U.S. yields are down 2.8 basis points today, and European yields are down 2.7 basis points.

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USCAD drops after Candian jobs data beat

The Canadian jobs report for March was released today at 1:30 pm BST. Report release was brought a day forward as Canada will be observing Good Friday tomorrow. Data turned out to be a huge positive surprise. Employment change turned out ot be much higher-than-expected with both full-time and part-time jobs showing decent increases. As a result, the unemployment rate avoided an expected uptick to 5.1% and stayed unchanged at 5.0% instead.

Canada, jobs report for March

1. Employment change: +34.7k vs +12.9k expected (+21.8k previously)
2. Unemployment rate: 5.0% vs 5.1% expected (5.0% previously)
3. Full-time employment: +18.8k vs +31.1k previously
4. Part-time employment: +15.9k vs -9.3k previously

USDCAD climbed to the short-term resistance zone near 1.3490 prior to the release. However, the pair pulled back following better-than-expected data. A support zone near 1.3460 handle, marked with previous price reactions as well as the lower limit of the upward channel. However, bulls managed to defend the area and erased the majority of the drop in the first minutes following the release.

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Bitcoin

Cryptocurrencies are retreating from recent record highs as the sell-off on the Nasdaq gains strength and concerns around a slowing US economy have increased. A weakening consumer could mean lower risk appetite and a narrower range of potentially interested buyers of speculative assets. A recession would likely do nothing good for the crypto market. With its declining reaction in recent days, bitcoin has confirmed that its role as a recession or banking crisis hedging asset is still uncertain. Is the king of cryptocurrencies in for a trend change?

A change in the crypto trend?

The on-chain market sentiment vector is pointing to levels close to greed, which could signal an impending correction. It's also worth noting that BTC's volatility has been drying up in recent days, which has historically heralded an imminent, sudden price movement.

Looking at the chart of BITCOIN on the D1 interval, we can see that the RSI indicator has risen since the beginning of the year, but since then it has been recording lower and lower levels, although the price of the largest cryptocurrency has been steadily rising. This phenomenon is called a bearish divergence, and it can signify the weakening strength of buyers and a change in the trend. The closest support level for declines is the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave initiated on March 11, when the cryptocurrency rebounded sharply amid the collapsing SVB.

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DOGECOIN

1. Wall Street finished yesterday's trading higher as market odds for Fed rate hike in May dropped following another streak of disappointing data from US jobs market
2. Market now sees around 50% chance of 25 bp rate hike in May and around 50% chance of Fed leaving rate unchanged and pausing rate hike cycle
3. S&P 500 gained 0.36%, Dow Jones traded flat, Nasdaq rallied 0.76% and Russell 2000 moved 0.13% higher
4. Indices from Asia-Pacific traded higher today - Nikkei gained 0.1%, Kospi added 1.3% and indices from China traded up to 0.8% higher
5. Liquidity during today's European trading session is expected to be very thin as majority of stock exchanges from the Old Continent will be shut in observance of Good Friday
6. Japanese household spending increased 1.6% YoY in February (exp. 4.2% YoY)
7. Major cryptocurrencies trade mixed - Bitcoin drops 0.1%, Litecoin gains 0.1%, Ethereum trades 0.3% higher and Dogecoin slumps 2.8%
8. AUD and NZD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and CAD lag the most

DOGECOIN is one of the worst performing cryptocurrencies today. The coin has almost fully erased the price jump triggered by Elon Musk changing Twitter logo to Shiba Inu.

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EURUSD

USD is trading slightly higher today but EURUSD remains above 1.09 mark and maintains the uptrend. The latest drop in US yields shows that USD still has room to drop. If NFP data shows sub-200k jobs gain, it would be a strong sign of the labour market cooling down. However, it will not be a sign of a crisis yet. Nevertheless, readings that are significantly below 200k would likely encourage the Fed to pause the rate hike cycle and not raise rates at the May meeting. On the other hand, should we once again see strong job gains and strong earnings growth, rate hike at the May meeting may be still in play.


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Ethereum

Sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains mixed, with major projects moving in a sideways trend. Investors are concerned that Ethereum's correction after the Shapella upgrade will result in more sell-offs.


What after the Shapella Upgrade?

1. Since December 2020, investors have been able to deposit their ETH on the Ethereum Beacon chain and receive blockchain rewards and profits. However, they couldn't withdraw those funds until the recent upgrade. So far, the declines after the Shapella are relatively small;
2. Before the update, all staked ETH was worth nearly $32 billion (about 15% of supply). According to K33 Research, even with small withdrawals, about $2.4 billion in ETH could hit the market as investors will want to withdraw some funds from the Beacon chain. With crypto market liquidity drying up, this could trigger a deeper correction;
3. On the other hand, Bernstein Fund analysts pointed out that of the 18 million ETH staked, nearly 70% were locked into liquidity protocols, allowing investors to de facto trade funds through decentralized Lido-type protocols, which will take off much of the downward pressure.
4. According to analysts, the 30% of investors who deposited ETH in the Beacon chain without using liquidity protocols are likely to have the highest level of conviction and will not be willing to sell. It is also worth noting that the seamless ability to deposit and withdraw ETH may encourage more investors to staking and drive capital flowing into the chain;
5. Passive ETH returns of 5 or 6% per year are no longer as attractive compared to the 0 interest rate period, when investors could not count on comparable yields from regulated fixed income assets. In addition, staking is to some extent subject to risks associated with crypto market regulation. Rewards for ETH staking will decline as the number of stakers increases.

News

1. According to the Block 'open interest' report, the ETH options market (call options vs. put options) before the update showed the highest level since May signaling possible downward pressure
2. The U.S. Treasury Department has indicated that the decentralized asset market poses a threat to national security.
3. Divly revealed a report according to which only 1.62% of US cryptocurrency holders paid tax on their investments. The report is disputed by tax law specialists;
4. According to Bloomberg, Singaupur's central bank is working to unify cryptocurrency-friendly regulations
5. According to a survey by CoinGecko and Blockchain Research, 75% of cryptocurrency investors hold NFTs

Ethereum chart, H4 interval. Looking at the chart, we can see that the price reached before the Shapell update was roughly similar to the peak of the price rally before the Ethereum Merge. If the declines accelerate the key for the price could be the demand reaction around $1700 zone, where we can see SMA200 (red line), 23.6 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started last June and previous important price reactions.

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USDJPY

1. The first market session after the release of US jobs data is mixed as investors are wondering about the future policy path from the Fed. It looks like we are observing a re-trading of the data from Friday as most markets were closed then.
2. NFP came out at 236k and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Wages dynamic decreased to 4.2% YoY but they are still not consistent with an inflation rate of 2%
3. Most Asian stocks reversed earlier gains but on the other hand, US yields decreased also. Nikkei 225 and Kospi are the only indices that are up in the morning trading. Nikkei gains 0.4% and Kospi is higher by 0.9%
4. US indices futures continue their sell-of after Friday’s NFP release that suggests another hike from the Fed in May. US100 is trading 0.5% lower and US500 is down by about 0.3%
5. The US dollar is rising against all of the G10 currencies and the yen is one of the weakest, falling nearly 0.4%
6. It is important to know for all investors that at 10:15 GMT (11:15 BST and 12:15 CET) the new governor of the Bank of Japan will hold the inaugural press conference which means that Kuroda era is finally ended. The market is wondering whether Ueda would decide to end or change its yield curve control program. On the other hand, Ueda said in February that an accommodative policy in Japan is still needed.
7. The gold price digests the US job market data and decreases below 2000 USD per ounce in early morning trading
8. Trading may be choppy today as most markets are still closed in observance of Easter Monday

The USDJPY currency pair is up nearly 0.4% as investors are reassessing the US jobs market report from Friday and are waiting for the first public news conference of the new BoJ's governor Ueda.

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3 Markets to Watch


Investors that will be returning to the markets after Easter holidays and will face a number of top-tier market events in the week ahead. Rate decision from the Bank of Canada, Q1 earnings from major US banks as well as FOMC minutes and US inflation data are highlights in this week's calendar. Be sure to watch GOLD, US500 and USDCAD in the week ahead.


GOLD

A number of top-tier data releases from the United States will be offered to investors this week, including CPI for March (Wednesday, 1:30 pm BST), FOMC minutes (Wednesday, 7:00 pm BST) as well as retail sales for March (Friday, 1:30 pm BST). All of those may shed light on what Fed does next - is a 25 bp rate hike in May still in play or will the Fed pause the rate hike cycle? Higher CPI reading and poor retail sales data may see dovish bets in the markets increase. This, in turn, may help gold look towards highs in the $2,060 per ounce area.


US500

Wall Street earnings season for Q1 2023 will begin this Friday with the release of reports from major US banks. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup are set to report their financials before the opening of the Wall Street session on Friday. Beats and misses in results will be company-specific but investors are also likely to be offered hints on an issue with more broad-based implications - impact of recent banking turmoil on the economy, businesses and credit action. Recent data from the Dallas Fed showed signs of a crunch in consumer loans.Confirmation that deterioration in credit action is indeed taking place may deteriorate market moods.


USDCAD

USDCAD will be one of the FX to watch on Wednesday. Not only because US CPI data for March and FOMC minutes will be released but also because the Bank of Canada is set to announce the rate decision at 3:00 pm BST. No cut is expected as the Bank of Canada strongly hinted that the rate hike cycle is over. However, wage growth in Canada remains elevated, which should exert upward pressure on inflation. Having said that, some hawkish remarks may be offered by BoC.

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Gold

Gold is lower by about 0.6% from the perspective of the first session of the week. It is the first trading day for gold after the release of NFP jobs data from Friday when the market for gold was closed. Data from the US labor market showed that a rate hike from the Fed in May is still in the game. The data showed a further strong rise in employment above 200k and a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. From the perspective of monetary policy in the US, inflation data due for release on Wednesday will be crucial. Although wages data decreased more than expected, it is still inconsistent with the inflation target of 2%.

In response to good data from the US, gold reacted to a stronger dollar (USDJPY). Gold opened with a bearish gap that later was closed. Gold is currently trading below $2,000 an ounce. There is a support of around 1985 USD per ounce that is confirmed by 50 period SMA and the upper limit of the triangle pattern.

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Oil

Oil prices are stabilizing after the big price jump last week in response to OPEC+ decided to further cut production. The volatility decreased significantly as demand uncertainty in China and US offsets OPEC+ production cut. Of course, we could notice a further inventory draw last week but perspective of future demand is cloudy as the chance for the next interest rate hike is increasing.

As we can see the price range from the Monday a week ago is less than 3 dollars. The most important support is at 79.00 USD per barrel that is also a higher limit of bullish gap. On the other hand the nearest resistance lies at 82 USD per barrel that is also a higher limit of consolidation that starter on 1st December. In case of breaking the mentioned support, the price may decrease even to vicinity of 75 USD per barrel which is also a lower limit of the bullish gap.

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EURUSD

EURUSD decreased significantly below 1.0900 with increasing probability of Fed hike

The dollar gained over 0.3% today and EURUSD fell below 1.0900 and tested a vicinity of 1.0850. The dollar is finally higher after Friday's good data from the US labor market. Due to the fact that Friday was a day off in the US, investors can fully assess the data from the US labor market only today. The data increases the likelihood of a rate hike in May to 70%.

EURUSD not only breaks out of the uptrend but falls below the 200-hour moving average. The pair is trading at its lowest level since April 3. Another important support lies around the 1.0800 level.

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