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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,381
  • May 9, 2007 6:57pm May 9, 2007 6:57pm
Quoting Sami7
Thanks! wondering if I should change my name next?
Why would you? "Sami" is nice.

BTW, be careful on scaping shorts... GJ kept high levels during the hole NY session and UJ is printing new highs now. Not retracing the daily move in one of the most bullish situation in the immediate term.

Personally I'm holding UJ longs since 119.60 and will drop them at 120.46 eventually. I know I will have to chew a lot of ECB's "must reflect fundamentals" until we get there. I'll just buy more dips.

If you have the patience, wait for UJ to pullback off 120.20/25 area first and test the 120.00. That would provide a good buy opportunity with good R:R and is likely to bring GJ to a nice bottom to fish...

Hey, your beloved bears are natural born fishers... Why aren'tya?
  • #4,382
  • May 9, 2007 7:18pm May 9, 2007 7:18pm
Quoting cesarnc
Why would you? "Sami" is nice.

BTW, be careful on scaping shorts... GJ kept high levels during the hole NY session and UJ is printing new highs now. Not retracing the daily move in one of the most bullish situation in the immediate term.

Personally I'm holding UJ longs since 119.60 and will drop them at 120.46 eventually. I know I will have to chew a lot of ECB's "must reflect fundamentals" until we get there. I'll just buy more dips.

If you have the patience, wait for UJ to pullback off 120.20/25 area first and test the 120.00. That would provide a good buy opportunity with good R:R and is likely to bring GJ to a nice bottom to fish...

Hey, your beloved bears are natural born fishers... Why aren'tya?
Gotcha - I'm doing the 10 -14 pip scenario (safe) a little heavier on the lots. Yep, I go bottom fishing too....
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,383
  • May 10, 2007 2:31am May 10, 2007 2:31am
any signs of topping again at 239.55? 10 min ago i was 100% of a follow trough but now i believe the opposite...thats the beauty of this beast...
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,384
  • May 10, 2007 3:56am May 10, 2007 3:56am
Quoting gagiul
any signs of topping again at 239.55? 10 min ago i was 100% of a follow trough but now i believe the opposite...thats the beauty of this beast...
Hey you!!! at least let this beautiful beast move up another 40 pips ok!!!
I have two positions in it and one is already in +120pips while the other is still stuck at +20pips!!!! lol.........
  • #4,385
  • Edited 5:19am May 10, 2007 4:17am | Edited 5:19am
Quoting stevetan2010
Hey you!!! at least let this beautiful beast move up another 40 pips ok!!!
I have two positions in it and one is already in +120pips while the other is still stuck at +20pips!!!! lol.........
Well, god damn the british with their fcked up pound. why are they selling it just ahead of BOE rate hike? very pissed off... cable just retraced the whole move from yesterday.

LOL, damn, I got my own answer with pure technical analysis. Just pissed off to see all my longs going to red for GY...
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,386
  • May 10, 2007 5:03am May 10, 2007 5:03am
Quoting gagiul
Well, god damn the british with their fcked up pound. why are they selling it just ahead of BOE rate hike? very pissed off... cable just retraced the whole move from yesterday.
Cable got caught weak after the news by a huge dollar buyout. Yes, our sweetest dream

All we got is the rate statement. I'm changing my s/t bias to bearish if Cable don't make it above 0131 until Monday, tops.

Question now is how market is going to react on the likely 0.25% hike.

On UJ, I took the majority of profits at this run to 120.46 and as soon as it appeared, talks of 121 poped up... I'm a buyer at 120.20/00 area.
  • #4,387
  • May 10, 2007 5:06am May 10, 2007 5:06am
Japan"S [WATANABE] does not expect currencies to be a major topic at the G8 and so expects fin mins to maintain its stance, i.e averse to volatility or over rapid moves. Currencies should reflect fundamentals.

Here comes another dip!
  • #4,388
  • May 10, 2007 5:14am May 10, 2007 5:14am
Quoting cesarnc
Japan"S [WATANABE] does not expect currencies to be a major topic at the G8 and so expects fin mins to maintain its stance, i.e averse to volatility or over rapid moves. Currencies should reflect fundamentals.

Here comes another dip!
ola! so what sauce are we dipping into! Looks likely that i will plan a short, short term strat after the release...My bias remains pound bearish. darn! should have kept that bear avatar a week longer!
  • #4,389
  • May 10, 2007 5:35am May 10, 2007 5:35am
Quoting jest1081
ola! so what sauce are we dipping into! Looks likely that i will plan a short, short term strat after the release...My bias remains pound bearish. darn! should have kept that bear avatar a week longer!
The bias is actually turning to USD bullish in the short term, specialy with Y'day's FOMC. CAble's upside is going to be capped, as it appears. I hate to see Cable going hike from 9850 (!!!!) instead of 9950, but whatta hell....
  • #4,390
  • May 10, 2007 7:09am May 10, 2007 7:09am
1hour chart is bearish like hell.....
  • #4,391
  • May 10, 2007 7:21am May 10, 2007 7:21am
Seems now hammering 239.05/15 support. but still bounce from here might give niceswing up as itseems hammeging resistance on 4h and dayly chard.. but breaking thur this support might indicate some down movement indeed. staying tuned
  • #4,392
  • May 10, 2007 7:46am May 10, 2007 7:46am
Am I crazy, or this has been one of the strangest days in forex?... gbpusd spíked up.. then down.. eurusd almost without movement... carry trades shaking everytime...

Or are the sleepless hours i have so far.. hehe

iiivb
  • #4,393
  • May 10, 2007 7:53am May 10, 2007 7:53am
UJ going higher this pair - lower, does not make for a good scalp opportunity yet. Need both to be in sync. Did well yesterday with scalps.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,394
  • May 10, 2007 7:57am May 10, 2007 7:57am
Quoting iiivb
Am I crazy, or this has been one of the strangest days in forex?... gbpusd spíked up.. then down.. eurusd almost without movement... carry trades shaking everytime...

Or are the sleepless hours i have so far.. hehe

iiivb
hehe . dont know so strange. but indeed collation between currensies can be nice if taking it as soul of trading i quess. but there is allways thos days.

Personal thought:
i gave up and only observe eatch currensy as they own. . if other currensy effect to another. that movement from other currensy must then move the other one. so why not just to look that one.
  • #4,395
  • May 10, 2007 8:11am May 10, 2007 8:11am
opportunity coming up on hourly - 5 min (oversold) to get in on a scalp long as soon as UJ lines up
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,396
  • May 10, 2007 8:11am May 10, 2007 8:11am
Quoting iiivb
Am I crazy, or this has been one of the strangest days in forex?... gbpusd spíked up.. then down.. eurusd almost without movement... carry trades shaking everytime...

Or are the sleepless hours i have so far.. hehe

iiivb
GB rate statement
EU rate statement

ECB, US Treasure and China on the wires hitting the market at the same time.

Each one pointing to a different direction, proving the String Theory is right. We live in a 10 dimension universe

Wasn't the big pips on UJ and GJ y'day and today, I'd be in awful shape now. I'm dumping my Cable shorts loosers and winners and will get the hell out this market as soon as I can.

We are in the need of a massive shakeout here, whatever the direction.

100 billion dollars pocket "scalping" is the lil trader's worst nightmare.
  • #4,397
  • May 10, 2007 8:23am May 10, 2007 8:23am
i am allsummer shorts now. and will see how it will go. as it seems people wanna get some money brigging USD back in game. and looking distant time lines. so why not some hammering down. let see where today will close. curious about it.
  • #4,398
  • May 10, 2007 8:33am May 10, 2007 8:33am
238.50/55 thinking its very critical support now! (from dayly)
  • #4,399
  • May 10, 2007 8:36am May 10, 2007 8:36am
Quoting Mother
238.50/55 thinking its very critical support now! (from dayly)

I am looking at 238.40 from my fibs - so we are there or thereabouts.
  • #4,400
  • May 10, 2007 8:41am May 10, 2007 8:41am
Quoting musicman007
I am looking at 238.40 from my fibs - so we are there or thereabouts.
couple points here and there!

i have been thinking closing today below that point might indicate more down movement in coming days?
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