I love this place because of the free flow of information and I would like to be a contributor and not just a taker.
I will begin posting my trades, as best I can, before I make them.
I will do my best to explain the system I have developed, with the help of other posts/threads here at the forex factory. There are parts of my system that are copied whole and parts that have come to me from long hours of looking at charts and thinking: what is it that I am trying to figure out here?
What works best for me is a system that is mostly mechanical (maybe 90%) but that, unfortunately for me in trying to describe it, is based half on stuff I just made up after looking and pacing and writing out ideas until I could make sense of what I was looking at.
Sitting in you're little room, working on something good. But if it's really good, you're gonna need a bigger room. - thank you, jack white, white stripes
I will start with trade posts and add the system as soon as I can get the time to explain it. Note: it has not been, what do people here call it, curve fitted? to the past.
Basically, the main idea behind the system is that there is a wide range of daily prive movement of gbp/usd compared to the average daily movement over time. Without getting too specific now when it doesn't matter, the pair ranges 125 per day but only moves 5 or 6 per day over a multi-year average.
You already know this I am sure. So I am trying to capture that noise as profit. And my system matches my personality. I tried the 4 hour systems, but being down 40-50 pips for hours at a time really bummed me out.
The 5,10,15, and 30 min systems, that I tried, weren't statistically significant enough to give me enough predictive capability. So I moved to the hourly and still had no luck but I liked it as it seemed to have the capability of catching half of the daily move in the market in a short period of time without being exposed for more than 25 pips for a couple of hours.
For me, it is better to shorten my exposure time to being in a losing trade, so I stayed with the one hour.
The issue is: how do you capture a significant part of the daily noise as profit, without getting whipsawed around by that noise for a series of losses?
I think my system solves that problem with enough probability to trade my own real money with it. Please don't take my journal entries as advice for your own trades. I am just a guy.
I am trading my own money live with this system and, once again, will try to post the trades before I make them, as well as trying to explain the system completely. There are usually 10-20 trades per month.
I am doing this in a public forum to: 1. force myself to write every rule out in a logical manner; 2. help others to learn to look at the market in a deeper way to find out what is truly happening and then profit from it; 3. to help myself stay true to the rules of the system and the principles behind the discretionary parts; and 4. at some point maybe get some help coding it into a system that will call me in the middle of the night if a possible setup is about to take place, so I can sleep soundly the rest of the time.
05/09 First trade - made this morning, sorry but I have to start somewhere:
Bought gbp/usd at 1.9930 at 6 et. Set sell stop (at the bid rate - to be explained later) at 1.9905 and sell limit at 1.9980. Sold for profit at 8:30. Missed being stopped out by 1 pip - lucky.
+50 pips with spread
Please don't take my ideas as trade advice. They are not.
I will begin posting my trades, as best I can, before I make them.
I will do my best to explain the system I have developed, with the help of other posts/threads here at the forex factory. There are parts of my system that are copied whole and parts that have come to me from long hours of looking at charts and thinking: what is it that I am trying to figure out here?
What works best for me is a system that is mostly mechanical (maybe 90%) but that, unfortunately for me in trying to describe it, is based half on stuff I just made up after looking and pacing and writing out ideas until I could make sense of what I was looking at.
Sitting in you're little room, working on something good. But if it's really good, you're gonna need a bigger room. - thank you, jack white, white stripes
I will start with trade posts and add the system as soon as I can get the time to explain it. Note: it has not been, what do people here call it, curve fitted? to the past.
Basically, the main idea behind the system is that there is a wide range of daily prive movement of gbp/usd compared to the average daily movement over time. Without getting too specific now when it doesn't matter, the pair ranges 125 per day but only moves 5 or 6 per day over a multi-year average.
You already know this I am sure. So I am trying to capture that noise as profit. And my system matches my personality. I tried the 4 hour systems, but being down 40-50 pips for hours at a time really bummed me out.
The 5,10,15, and 30 min systems, that I tried, weren't statistically significant enough to give me enough predictive capability. So I moved to the hourly and still had no luck but I liked it as it seemed to have the capability of catching half of the daily move in the market in a short period of time without being exposed for more than 25 pips for a couple of hours.
For me, it is better to shorten my exposure time to being in a losing trade, so I stayed with the one hour.
The issue is: how do you capture a significant part of the daily noise as profit, without getting whipsawed around by that noise for a series of losses?
I think my system solves that problem with enough probability to trade my own real money with it. Please don't take my journal entries as advice for your own trades. I am just a guy.
I am trading my own money live with this system and, once again, will try to post the trades before I make them, as well as trying to explain the system completely. There are usually 10-20 trades per month.
I am doing this in a public forum to: 1. force myself to write every rule out in a logical manner; 2. help others to learn to look at the market in a deeper way to find out what is truly happening and then profit from it; 3. to help myself stay true to the rules of the system and the principles behind the discretionary parts; and 4. at some point maybe get some help coding it into a system that will call me in the middle of the night if a possible setup is about to take place, so I can sleep soundly the rest of the time.
05/09 First trade - made this morning, sorry but I have to start somewhere:
Bought gbp/usd at 1.9930 at 6 et. Set sell stop (at the bid rate - to be explained later) at 1.9905 and sell limit at 1.9980. Sold for profit at 8:30. Missed being stopped out by 1 pip - lucky.
+50 pips with spread
Please don't take my ideas as trade advice. They are not.
