Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 09th MAR, 2023


ETHUSD: Bearish Engulfing Pattern Below $1677
Ethereum was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of $1677 on 02nd Mar, the price started to decline against the US dollar trading below the $1550 handle today in the European trading session.
We have seen a bearish opening of the markets this week.
The price of ETHUSD is ranging near a new record low of 1 month.
We can clearly see a bearish engulfing pattern below the $1677 handle which is a bearish pattern and signifies the end of a bullish phase and the start of a bearish phase in the markets.
ETH is now trading just below its pivot levels of 1537 and moving in a mildly bearish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic support level of 1530 and Fibonacci support level of 1536 after which the path towards 1500 will get cleared.
We can see the formation of a black hanging man in the 4-hour time frame indicating a neutral tone of the markets.
The relative strength index is at 40.95 indicating a weak demand for Ether and a shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.
The commodity channel index, CCI, is giving an oversold signal, which means that the price is expected to correct upwards in the short-term range.
Most of the technical indicators are giving a sell market signal.
Most of the moving averages are giving a sell signal at the current market level of $1531.
ETH is now trading below both its 100 hourly simple and 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

 

1. Ether: bearish reversal seen below the $1677 mark.
2. The short-term range appears to be mildly bearish.
3. ETH continues to remain below the $1550 level.
4. The average true range is indicating less market volatility.

Ether: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $1677

ETHUSD continues to weaken and we can see a move towards the consolidation phase in the markets. Now the next visible targets are located at $1500 and $1450.
We can see the formation of the three black crows pattern in the 2-hour time frame indicating bearish trends.
The MACD crosses down its moving average in the 30-minute time frame indicating the bearish nature of the market.
ETHUSD touched an intraday high of 1552 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 1528 in the London trading session today.
The key support levels to watch are $1446 which is a 50% retracement from a 13 week high/low, and $1486 at which the price crosses 18-day moving average stalls.
ETH has decreased by 1.27% with a price change of 19.71$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 7.237 billion USD.
We can see a decrease of 0.87% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead
ETH was unable to cross the $1700 handle last week and now we are about to touch the $1500 level. If the demand for Ethereum increases we could witness a bounce in the levels next week.
We can see the formation of a bearish ascending channel from $1677 towards the $1522 level.
The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned bearish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.
The resistance zone is located at $1575 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 20% and at $1586 which is a 14-day RSI at 50%.
The weekly outlook is projected at $1450 with a consolidation zone of $1500.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

Gold Price Recovers While Crude Oil Price Declines Further


Gold price is attempting a recovery wave above the $1,820 resistance. Crude oil price is declining and remains at a risk of more losses below $75.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

1. Gold price started a recovery wave above the $1,820 resistance against the US Dollar.
2. A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,832 on the hourly chart of gold.
3. Crude oil price started a fresh decline below the $80 support zone.
4. There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $76.65 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis
Gold price formed a base above the $1,810 support zone against the US Dollar. The price started a decent increase and was able to clear the $1,820 resistance zone.
The bulls were able to push the price above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,858 swing high to $1,809 low (formed on FXOpen). The price is now trading above the $1,820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

Gold Price Hourly Chart

It is now facing resistance near the $1,835 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,832 on the hourly chart of gold.
The trend line is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,858 swing high to $1,809 low. The next key hurdle is near the $1,840 level.

A clear upside break above the $1,840 resistance could send the price towards $1,850. If there is no upside break, the price might correct lower.
An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,820 level. The next major support is near the $1,810 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline. In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,800 support zone.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

Watch FXOpen's March 6 - 10 Weekly Market Wrap Video
In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

1. Swiss National Bank reports record losses
2. AAPL shares: Goldman Sachs puts Buy rating
3. Inflation top of the agenda as Euro slumps
4. Powell accelerates the bullish trend on the dollar index

Watch our short and informative video and stay updated with FXOpen.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

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GBP/USD Rallies While GBP/JPY Faces Key Resistance


GBP/USD climbed higher above the 1.1950 resistance zone. GBP/JPY could start a decent increase if there is a clear move above the 163.00 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

1. The British Pound is slowly moving higher above 1.2000 against the US Dollar.
2. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2060 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
3. GBP/JPY is showing a lot of bullish signs above the 161.50 support.
4. There is a major trend line forming with resistance near 164.40 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound formed a base above the 1.1800 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started a steady increase above the 1.1880 resistance zone.
There was a clear move above the 1.1920 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 1.2000 resistance. A high is formed near 1.2141 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains.
An immediate support is near the 1.2100. The next major support is near the 1.2060 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1802 swing low to 1.2141 high.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2060 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. If there is a break below the 1.2060 support, the pair could test the 1.1970 support. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1802 swing low to 1.2141 high.
Any more losses might send GBP/USD towards 1.1900. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.2140 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2180 level, above which the pair could start a steady increase towards 1.2250.
An upside break above 1.2250 might start a fresh increase towards 1.2320. Any more gains might call for a move towards 1.2380 or even 1.2450.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

AUD/USD: Where Will the Pair Be in 2023 and Beyond?


The Australian dollar/US dollar pair is one of the major pairs traded worldwide. Since 2021, it has been moving in a downtrend. However, the reopening of China, the removal of China’s ban on Australian coal, and the potential weakness of the USD in 2023 allow analysts to make optimistic projections on the AUD/USD exchange rate. In this FXOpen guide, you will find forecasts on the AUD/USD rate and learn the reasons behind them.

AUD/USD: Price History 2021 - the Beginning of 2023

From March 2020 to February 2021, the AUD/USD pair was moving in an uptrend. However, the situation changed in May 2021 when a downtrend came into force as the US dollar was gaining momentum. The pair continues depreciating, and there are a few reasons for this.

The first reason is the problems with exports. It’s also vital to note that the strength of the Australian economy depends on exports. The country is a leader in producing and exporting various commodities, including iron ore, coal, lithium, gold, uranium, and bauxite. China is one of the major importers of Australian goods.
Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, China had to close the country, which affected its economic growth and curbed domestic steel production. A slowdown in its economic growth affected Australia’s economic development, too.

Another reason for the weakness of the Australian dollar was the strength of the US dollar. Despite the 2022 crisis, the US dollar was rising in value. Some analysts explain this by saying that the USD is a safe-haven asset that appreciates in periods of market turbulence. Others doubt the USD’s status as a refuge currency but agree that the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) monetary policy is the primary driver of the USD rate.
The Fed's hawkish monetary policy encouraged the appreciation of the US dollar– in 2022, the central bank raised the interest rate seven times – from 0.25% to 4.50%. However, it’s vital to highlight that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also raised its interest rate even more often than the Fed. During 2022, there were eight rate hikes, so the rate reached 3.10%. Why was the AUD weaker than the US dollar? Despite the smaller number of hikes, the interest rate in the US is higher than in Australia.

Analysts say that the Australian dollar will appreciate only if the pace of the US dollar’s strengthening calms down. This may happen in the near future as the Fed is expected to soften its monetary policy, raising rates at a slower pace. Still, not all analysts agree with that. The Federal Reserve can’t beat the rising inflation rate. Therefore, it may maintain its aggressive approach, and the AUD/USD pair will continue moving in a downtrend.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

NASDAQ feels the effect of Silicon Valley Bank collapse


It was inevitable that a large, previously highly capitalised bank which is one of the preferred depositories of capital for venture capital-funded technology companies in the Silicon Valley and San Francisco Bay area, would create major waves within the wider financial markets economy if it collapsed.
Well, collapse it has, and the fallout is immense.

Silicon Valley Bank, which was founded 39 years ago at the height of the global technology revolution, has gone under, with losses estimated at over $15 billion, and now the fingers of blame are being pointed as the bank's collapse serves to echo the banking crisis of 2008/2009 after which many observers and government regulators cited lack of prudent governance, carefree risk management and lending to those who cannot afford repayments to have been factors.
So grave was it, that the US and European governments embarked on a whole new set of regulations in order to prevent financial institutions from engaging in gung-ho corporate policy and in favour of protecting the public and business community from being subjected to losses should banks fail.
However, here we are in 2023 and we are witnessing the second largest collapse of a bank in the history of the United States economy.
Once again, factors contributing to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank include poor risk management and a bank run driven by tech industry investors.
The failure of SVB was the largest of any bank since the 2007–2008 financial crisis by assets, and the second largest in U.S. history behind that of Washington Mutual which went bankrupt in 2008.

Many high tech firms which had raised venture capital to fund their growth had deposited the venture capital in large sums into accounts at Silicon Valley Bank, and the bank had experienced such an influx of funds in the first part of this decade that it was unable to lend responsibly so took on government bonds, which were long term in their investment structure, and had done so during a period of low interest rates.
Now the piper has to be paid, and the liabilities were too high.

As a result, shareholder confidence in publicly listed stocks on the tech-friendly NASDAQ exchange have taken a downturn.
At close of business on Friday, the NASDAQ Composite index had declined by over 5% during the course of last week, with losses gaining ground after the announcement of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
This high profile and scandalous collapse of a major financial institution which has many Silicon Valley tech firms as customers has added a new dent to the performance of US tech stocks, which have been volatile for some time now.
Over the course of 2022, US tech stocks were very low compared to the previous year, and older style, traditional companies were doing well, and still are – such as those listed on London’s FTSE 100 index.
Overall, the venture-capital funded tech scene is seen as avantgarde but risky compared to the old money which exists on traditional exchanges.
It is just that now, we are seeing the market treat it as such.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

Turkish Lira crisis lingers with sustained record low against USD


The Turkish economy is a highly diversified one.
Its industry base is by far the most developed in the Middle East, almost resembling European nations with its highly advanced telecommunications, tourism, vehicle manufacturing, computer science, fintech, clothing and consumer white goods sectors.
It’s an industrious society and has been improving tremendously over the years in its modernity.
The main obstacle faced by Turkish businesses and households in recent times has been directly connected to the country’s clearly diversified but somehow troubled economy.

Over the past two days, the Turkish Lira has plummeted even further to the extent that it is now at an all-time low against the US Dollar and other major currencies.
Today, the Turkish Lira is trading at 18.97 against the US Dollar, a value far lower than any time in history.
Presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 14 are adding to uncertainty, although they are still some two months away. Overall, there is a concern over the possible continuation of current President Tayyip Erdogan's controversial policies which have led to a rapidly depreciating currency and an eye-watering 70% inflation figure, or if monetary policy could perhaps revert to orthodoxy as promised by the opposition should the opposition become elected.
Added to the long-existing fiscal malaise in Turkey, global economists are now looking at the economic impact of the disastrous earthquakes that hit Turkey last month.

The depreciation to new record lows has occurred despite the recent deposit of $5 billion into the Turkish central bank by the Saudi Fund for Development, which was cited at the time to be "a demonstration of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s commitment to supporting Turkey’s efforts to strengthen its economy’.
Rather astonishingly, The Turkish Lira has depreciated over the past five years against the British Pound by a staggering 300%, demonstrating that its instability has dented the Turkish economy, but has encouraged British tourists to visit the country even more than they already do - and Turkey is one of the most popular vacation destinations for British tourists.

Also, on the subject of tourism, Turkey has welcomed tens of thousands of tourists from Russia over the past year, as its neutrality has been a boon for business.
Whilst it is good that the tourist industry is booming, the depreciation of revenues from tourist business remains a hard metric to swallow in that 70% inflation has done a lot to wipe out a large proportion of revenue.
Turkey's workforce continues to be industrious and is not showing signs of giving up, so it is an economic region to watch closely.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 14th MAR 2023


BTCUSD: Bullish Engulfing Pattern Above $19552
Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bearish momentum last week and after touching a low of $19552 on 10th March, the prices started to correct upwards against the US dollar, touching a high of $24800 today in the European trading session.
We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.
We can clearly see a bullish engulfing pattern above the $19552 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.
Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 24800 in the European trading session, and an intraday low of 24005 in the Asian trading session today.
We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the weekly time frame.
The price of bitcoin is ranging near a new record high of 1 month.
Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.
The MACD indicator is giving a bullish divergence signal in the weekly time frame.
The relative strength index is at 68.46 indicating a STRONG demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.
Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.
Most of the major technical indicators are giving a buy signal, which means that in the immediate short term we are expecting targets of 24500 and 25000.
The average true range is indicating less market volatility with a bullish momentum.

 

1. Bitcoin: bullish reversal seen above $19552.
2. The STOCHRSI is indicating an oversold market.
3. The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $24298.
4. The short-term range is strongly BULLISH.

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $19552

The price of bitcoin is now moving in a strongly bullish momentum above the $24000 handle. After some market consolidation, we can see fresh upsides in the ranges of $24500 to $25500.
The MACD indicator is back over zero in the weekly time frame indicating a bullish trend.
We can see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA 50 in the weekly time frame.
The MACD crosses up its moving average in the daily time frame indicating a bullish scenario.
The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $22460 which is a 14 day RSI at 50%, and at $23557 at which the price crosses the 9 day moving average stalls.
The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 24381 and Fibonacci resistance level of 24426 after which the path towards 25000 will get cleared.
In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has increased by 11.21% by 2462.33$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 46.508 billion. We can see an increase of 21.06% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which is due to the buying seen at lower levels.

The Week Ahead
We have seen a Bullish correction in the prices of bitcoin and the resumption of a bullish trend which is expected to continue towards the $25000 levels.
With an increase in the global investor confidence, we can see an increase in the buying pressure and the trading volumes of bitcoin during the last 24hrs.
We can see the formation of a bullish doji star pattern in the 4-hour time frame.

The daily RSI is printing at 62.03 which indicates a strong demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the bullish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.
We can see the formation of a bullish trend line from $19552 towards the $24780 level.
The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone located at $25238 which is a 13-week high and $25814 which is a pivot point 1st resistance point.
The weekly outlook is projected at $25500 with a consolidation zone of $25000.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY Aim More Upsides


EUR/USD is eyeing a steady increase above the 1.0750 resistance. EUR/JPY is rising and might rally further if it clears the 144.50 resistance zone.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

 

1. The Euro started a fresh increase above the 1.0700 support zone.
2. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0740 on the hourly chart.
3. EUR/JPY started a steady increase after it found support near the 141.40.
4. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 143.65 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro remained well bid above the 1.0550 zone and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair was able to clear the 1.0620 resistance.
There was a clear move above the 1.0700 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 1.0720 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair traded as high as 1.0759 on FXOpen and is currently showing positive signs.
On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0760 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0780 level. The main resistance is near 1.0800.
A clear move above the 1.0800 resistance might send the price towards 1.0880. If the bulls remain in action, the pair could visit the 1.0950 resistance zone in the near term.
On the downside, the pair might find support near the 1.0740 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0740 on the hourly chart. The trend line is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0678 swing low to 1.0759 high.
The next major support sits near the 1.0720 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0678 swing low to 1.0759 high, below which the pair could even test the 1.0680 support zone.
If there is a downside break below the 1.0680 support, the pair might accelerate lower in the coming sessions. In the stated case, it could even test 1.0620.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 16th MAR, 2023


ETHUSD: Bullish Harami Pattern Above $1369
Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of $1369 on 10th Mar, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar touching a high of $1775 on 14th Mar.
We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.
The MACD indicator is giving a bullish divergence signal in the weekly time frame.
We can clearly see a bullish harami pattern above the $1369 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.
ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1660 and moving into a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1705 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1761 after which the path towards 1800 will get cleared.
We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the weekly time frame.
The relative strength index is at 55.18 indicating a strong demand for Ether and a shift towards the buying phase in the markets.
The STOCHRSI is giving an overbought signal, which means that the price is expected to decline in the short-term range.
Most of the technical indicators are giving a buy market signal.
Most of the moving averages are giving a buy signal at the current market level of $1650.
ETH is now trading above both its 100 hourly simple and 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

 

1. Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1369 mark.
2. The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish.
3. ETH continues to remain above the $1600 level.
4. The average true range is indicating high market volatility.

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1369

ETHUSD continues to build upwards momentum and we are now looking to cross the $1700 handle after which the next visible targets are located at the $1800 level.
The parabolic SAR indicator is giving a bullish reversal signal in the weekly time frame.
The MACD indicator is back over zero in the weekly time frame indicating a bullish scenario present in the markets.
We can see the formation of a bullish trend reversal pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA20 in the 4-hour time frame.
ETHUSD touched an intraday high of 1664 and an intraday low of 1634 in the Asian trading session today.
The key support levels to watch are $1559 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average stalls, and at $1587 which is a 14-day RSI at 50%.
ETH has decreased by 2.21% with a price change of 37.60$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 12.639 billion USD.
We can see a decrease of 18.80% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs. which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead
ETH was successful in crossing the $1700 handle and touched a high of $1775 after which we can see some downwards correction. After the price stabilizes, we are looking for fresh upsides in the range of $1700 to $1800 levels.
We can see the formation of a bullish ascending channel from $1369 towards the $1687 level.
The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook for Ether neutral under present market conditions.
The resistance zone is located at $1710 which is a pivot point 1st resistance point and at $1781 which is a 1-month high.
The weekly outlook is projected at $1850 with a consolidation zone of $1800.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Eyes Sustained Move Higher


AUD/USD started a fresh increase above the 0.6680 resistance zone. NZD/USD is rising and might aim a move above the 0.6250 resistance.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

1. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6650 resistance against the US Dollar.
2. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6680 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
3. NZD/USD started a decent increase above the 0.6200 resistance zone.
4. There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6180 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6590 and started a decent increase against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair gained pace for a move above the 0.6620 resistance.
The pair even moved above the 0.6650 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a clear move above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6711 swing high to 0.6589 low.
It is now trading above the 0.6700 level, plus above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6711 swing high to 0.6589 low.
On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.6710 level. The next major resistance is near the 0.6740 level. A close above the 0.6740 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.6800.
On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.6685 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6680 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
The next support could be the 0.6650 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. If there is a downside break below the 0.6650 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.6600 level.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

Watch FXOpen's March 13 -17 Weekly Market Wrap Video

*In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

1. There will be more bank failures
2. Inflation data was not surprising. What will happen next?
3. Turkish Lira crisis lingers with sustained record low against USD
4. Oil updates the minimums of the year

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

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GBP/USD Regains Strength While EUR/GBP Faces Many Hurdles


GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2000 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is struggling and facing resistance near the 0.8780 level.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

 

1. The British Pound started a fresh increase above the 1.2000 barrier against the US Dollar.
2. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
3. EUR/GBP found support near 0.8715 and is currently recovering higher.
4. There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8780 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The British Pound steady increase after it settled above the 1.2000 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair gained pace for a move above the 1.2080 resistance zone.
During the increase, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair even broke the 1.2150 resistance zone and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

A high is formed near 1.2205 and the pair is now consolidating gains. On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.2160 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2027 swing low to 1.2205 high.
The next major support is near the 1.2120 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2027 swing low to 1.2205 high.
Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.2050 support zone. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.2200 level. The first major resistance is near the 1.2220 level. A clear move above the 1.2220 level could spark a decent increase.
The next major resistance sits near the 1.2320 level. Any more gains might send the pair towards the 1.2400 resistance zone.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

Swiss tsunami rips through global markets: FTSE 100 wipeout noticeable


Last week’s revelations that Credit Suisse, the second largest bank in Switzerland which is also a global market-maker at Tier 1 interbank level, has got into financial dire straits has had more than an effect on the local banking sector.
As is to be expected, the demise of such as key financial institution has had a major impact on many other markets internationally, one of which is the FTSE 100 index in London.

By Thursday last week, just days after the possibility of a total demise of Credit Suisse had become a real concern, £76 billion was wiped off the value of the index which contains London’s top 100 stock in blue-chip companies.

Over the past five days, the FTSE 100 index has lost 5.8% in value, and is now at its lowest point in over a month, down some 9.8% over the past 30 days.
This morning, as the markets open in London for the first time this week, it was clear that the collapse of Credit Suisse has taken its toll across a whole range of asset classes and company stocks.

One of the reasons for a further tumble in value this morning is that a possible deal between UBS, another Swiss banking giant, and Credit Suisse has not been successful, meaning that even for $1, Credit Suisse was unsaleable.
Bank stocks across the world have depreciated due to the collapse of yet another Tier 1 bank, which has gone the same way as many banks over the past 15 years despite all of the regulatory overhauls and possible lessons learned from the 2008/2009 financial crisis in which a whole host of large commercial banks in Europe and North America collapsed, with some disappearing forever after hundreds of years in business, and some being nationalised at the expense of the taxpayer.

Confidence, therefore is low and added to that are fall-out factors such as the total write-off of US$17 billion worth of Credit Suisse bonds as part of the proposed UBS deal sparked concern about similar debt and sent banking shares down further.
Lloyds Banking Group PLC, HSBC, Standard Chartered and NatWest shares dropped in value by 3.3%. 2.8%, 7.2% and 3.3% respectively and the FTSE 100 is now languishing at 7.335.
It certainly appears that the 8,000 points that analysts were looking at a few weeks ago is now an unfulfilled and distant memory.

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British Pound reaches one-month high against US Dollar despite banking crisis


There has been so much focus on the shock waves that have been sent through the global markets this week as a result of what has now become viewed as a ‘banking crisis’ that only a downward direction in value for stocks and currencies has been considered.
Credit Suisse, the second largest Swiss bank, and one of the world’s largest Tier 1 interbank Forex dealers has collapsed after a few years of serious financial problems and ill-judged decisions such as the 2021 revelation that the bank had helped Bill Hwang, a trader whose activities got him banned in Hong Kong, move his activities to New York and rebrand his high risk hedge fund as Archegos before beginning down the same path that got him banned in New York, costing Credit Suisse $5.5 billion.

There have been other such disasters too, and some loss-making years over the course of the past decade but it is clear that now we are witnessing the end of Credit Suisse in its current form, and even UBS pulled out of a deal to buy it for $1.
The havoc that this has wreaked, including a lack of trust in banks once again – memories are not so short as to forget the credit crunch and banking collapses of the late 2000s, where many banks were either bankrupt after hundreds of years in business, or bailed out by the taxpayers and nationalised – is now noticeable on European stock exchanges as bank stocks have dived, and in currency prices.
However, it is important to note that it is not just the European side of the Atlantic that has been subjected to high value, high profile banking collapses over the past week.

Silicon Valley Bank in the United States collapsed last week, causing a ripple effect which meant that regional banks, of which there are a lot in the United States, lost a lot of value. One particular bank, First Republic, had lost 61% of its stock value by March 13.
Therefore, if malaise is on both sides of the pond, what can traders and investors do, other than pick up the pieces and try to continue their business.
As a result, the British market is resuming its pace, with the British Pound this morning trading at the high 1.22 range against the US Dollar, representing the highest point in over a month.
This is an interesting situation given that the FTSE 100 index lost over £76 billion in value due to the Credit Suisse debacle causing fear among investors and impacting bank stocks, many of which are listed on the London Stock Exchange and included in the FTSE 100 index.
It appears that the overall sentiment is to pick up the pieces and carry on, with an understanding that the banking trepidation is no better on the North American side of the Altantic, and as a result, it’s a good day for the British Pound.

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 21st MAR 2023


BTCUSD: Morning Star Pattern Above $23935
Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum from last week and after touching a low of $23935 on 15th March, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar, touching a high of $28439 on 20th Mar.
We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.
We can clearly see a morning star pattern above the $23935 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.
Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 28180 in the Asian trading session, and an intraday low of 27378 in the European trading session today.
The price of bitcoin is ranging near a new record high of 1 year.
Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.
The RSI indicator is back over 50 in the 2-hourly time frame indicating bullish trends.
The relative strength index is at 63.77 indicating a strong demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.
Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.
Most of the major technical indicators are giving a BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 28000 and 28500.
The average true range is indicating less market volatility with a bullish momentum.

 

1. Bitcoin: bullish continuation seen above $23935.
2. The STOCHRSI is indicating an oversold market.
3. The price is now trading above its pivot level of $27744
4. The short-term range is strongly bullish.

Bitcoin: Bullish Continuation Seen Above $23935

The price of Bitcoin is now moving in a strongly bullish momentum above the $27000 handle. After some retraction we can see fresh upsides in the ranges of $28000 to $28500.
We can see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA 100 in the 2-hourly time frame.
The price of bitcoin is ranging near the support of the triangle in the 1-hour time frame indicating a bullish scenario.
We have also detected the formation of a three white soldiers pattern in the 30-minute time frame indicating a bullish outlook.
The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.
Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $24152 at which the price crosses the 9-day moving average, and at $25825 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 70%.
The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 27861 and Fibonacci resistance level of 28072 after which the path towards 28500 will get cleared.
In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has decreased by 0.88% by 246.91$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 38.608 billion. We can see a decrease of 18.76% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead
We can see that bitcoin continues its bullish momentum and the prices continue to remain above the $27000 handle. We are now looking for fresh upsides in the range of $28000 and $29000.
The demand for bitcoin continues and we can say that now crypto winter has ended with the resumption of the long-term bullish trend in the BTCUSD.
The daily RSI is printing at 70.68 which indicates a strong demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the bullish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.
We can see the formation of a bullish trend line from $23935 towards the $28667 Levels.
The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone located at $28496 which is a 1-month high and at $28796 which is a pivot point 1st resistance point.



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EUR/USD Gains Bullish Momentum While USD/JPY Recovers Steadily


EUR/USD gained pace for a move above the 1.0700 resistance. USD/JPY is also rising and might rally further above the 132.60 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

1. The Euro started a fresh increase above the 1.0700 resistance zone.
2. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0740 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
3. USD/JPY is showing a lot of bullish signs above the 131.80 support zone.
4. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 131.50 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
This past week, the Euro found support near the 1.0530 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair formed a base and recently started a steady increase.
There was a clear move above the 1.0620 and 1.0650 resistance levels. The pair even climbed above the 1.0700 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0780 zone and traded as high as 1.0788 on FXOpen.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

It is now consolidating gains below the 1.0780 level. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.0755 level. It is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0703 swing low to 1.0788 high.
The first major support is near the 1.0740 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0740 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
The trend line is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0703 swing low to 1.0788 high. The main support sits near the 1.0725 zone, below which the pair could start a major decline. In the stated case, the pair might dive towards the 1.0650 support zone.
On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0780 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0800 level. An upside break above 1.0800 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might visit 1.0880. Any more gains might send the pair towards 1.0950.

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To hike or not to hike? That is the Fed’s question


Today, futures contracts which are related to North American stocks have taken a bit of a downturn in projected value as today is another day in which the United States Federal Reserve Bank – known as The Fed – is set to announce its position on interest rate adjustments.
In advance of the opening session in New York today, futures contracts which related to stocks listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 29 points which equates to a 0.1% drop, S&P 500 futures were down 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures dipped 0.2%.
The Federal Reserve Bank has been holding a policy meeting which has taken place over the past two days, with the final day being today and investors and traders are awaiting the outcome, which may reveal a further increase in the base rate of interest across the United States.
Speculators and analysts have been looking at the possibility of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 base point increase in the base rate of interest, as well as a possibility of tightening of monetary policy especially given the recent contagion across the United States banking sector in the aftermath of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

During the past few days, smaller regional banks have been affected and now First Republic is teetering on the brink of collapse resulting in a 61% drop in share price last week and a bank run which meant that many investors withdrew their money, subsequently depositing it with larger Tier 1 banks.
Rather incredibly, a batch of larger banks this week took their customers funds to the tune of $30 billion and deposited it in First Republic to prop it up.
As a result of this turn of events, confidence in the US banking sector is very low once again, and futures contracts on major indices are showing the bearish approach many investors are taking at a time when banks are struggling, and interest rates may rise again.
Fascinatingly, these stocks, usually traded by conservative investors due to their relative stability and long-standing presence on major exchanges are down, and the overall sentiment within the banking and US monetary situation is cautious to say the least, yet a meme stock that was responsible for the infamous market short in January 2021 is soaring.

GameStop, the entertainment firm which appeared in high profile news reports two years ago because of the reddit group WallStreetBets effectively ‘market making’ on social media and shorting the stock, causing a black swan event, is on the up.
The company, listed on the NASDAQ exchange, reported a 22.4% growth in margins and as a result, its stock soared by 43%.
It is an interesting day, when the banks, some of which are hundreds of years old, are causing more fear than a meme stock!

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