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The Swamp

  • #107,721
  • Mar 21, 2023 7:21am Mar 21, 2023 7:21am
Quoting Boulder
Gold bulls start to give up.. {image}
Gold is really going down since I noted yesterday,,,
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  • #107,722
  • Mar 21, 2023 7:25am Mar 21, 2023 7:25am
1 min bearish
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,723
  • Mar 21, 2023 7:30am Mar 21, 2023 7:30am
Quoting gatorinla
1 min bearish {image}
5 min. still bullish. There is a algo at 1.0730. That may be a buy with 1.0732.. (but if the day closes below, it may turn bearish)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,724
  • Mar 21, 2023 7:58am Mar 21, 2023 7:58am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Gold is really going down since I noted yesterday,,, {image}
eu adr spent
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,725
  • Mar 21, 2023 9:48am Mar 21, 2023 9:48am
pa is near the top of my 4h stop. I have a week algo at 1.0835. But i have to take this one. I will risk 0.3%
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,726
  • Mar 21, 2023 12:40pm Mar 21, 2023 12:40pm
Quoting Boulder
COT report is catching up now.. last week Mar 7thCOT report, hedge funds continued to cut Eur longs and increased Eur shorts. 2nd week in a row. Tomorrow we will see Mar 14th report.. {image}
3rd Week in a row, hedge funds cut Eur net long position, according to Mar 14th COT report
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  • #107,727
  • Mar 21, 2023 1:20pm Mar 21, 2023 1:20pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} 3rd Week in a row, hedge funds cut Eur net long position, according to Mar 14th COT report {image}
It looks like they finally caught up.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,728
  • Mar 21, 2023 3:01pm Mar 21, 2023 3:01pm
The day closed + 1.0732 and 1.0734. That is positive for the eu to rise. The month 20 sma at 1.0811 looks to be tested. It may be on its way to 1.0835 or more. Unless the FOMC response decides to do something else. It looks like it may test 1.0811 in the Asian session. The close above 1.0734 broke the one day trend, Boulder uses. I have another, that needs a day close above 1.0797. To change it. Price can roam to 1.08xx, and still close below 1.0797. In this case 1.0797 would still be valid R for closes. If tomorrow closes below 1.0765. It may drop again. The same R like 1.0732, and 1.0694 on the way up. Is now support, needed to be beat for any drop. Often in a pump before FOMC levels like 1.0732 are broken. Then 3 days later it breaks the newly formed levels. If this be that same situation. 1.0508 may break next week. No, I'm not saying its bearish now. I'm saying if tomorrow closes below 1.0765, and 1.0694. It may be bearish. There is still lots of levels to beat for bears. The latest bias is still bullish. PA is bullish until it shows different.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,729
  • Mar 22, 2023 6:22am Mar 22, 2023 6:22am
Quoting gatorinla
The day closed + 1.0732 and 1.0734. That is positive for the eu to rise. The month 20 sma at 1.0811 looks to be tested. It may be on its way to 1.0835 or more. Unless the FOMC response decides to do something else. It looks like it may test 1.0811 in the Asian session. The close above 1.0734 broke the one day trend, Boulder uses. I have another, that needs a day close above 1.0797. To change it. Price can roam to 1.08xx, and still close below 1.0797. In this case 1.0797 would still be valid R for closes. If tomorrow closes below 1.0765. It...
Asia didnt pull it off.. There is still time for 1.0811. What matters will be after FOMC, and the press conference to follow. That gives about 2 hs for pa to absorb info. Hopefully the dust will have settled to a direction.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,730
  • Mar 22, 2023 6:37am Mar 22, 2023 6:37am
A day close below 1940 gold may lead to 1904. 1903.76 day close below. Could lead to 1873.x. I dont know about shorting. I think those targets may be a long. I think gold is bullish. But if something crazy happens with the usd. 1848 is another buy. The bank situation helps gold. The closes below mentioned are support levels. Gold being bullish, those may be a buy.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,731
  • Mar 22, 2023 6:53am Mar 22, 2023 6:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Asia didnt pull it off.. There is still time for 1.0811. What matters will be after FOMC, and the press conference to follow. That gives about 2 hs for pa to absorb info. Hopefully the dust will have settled to a direction. {image}
See chart above. I wanted to short here. FOMC prevents what i would have done on a normal day.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,732
  • Mar 22, 2023 7:04am Mar 22, 2023 7:04am
Asteroid discovery suggests ingredients for life on Earth came from space...
https://www.reuters.com/article/spac...-idUSL1N35P3HD
I am who I am
  • #107,733
  • Mar 22, 2023 8:30am Mar 22, 2023 8:30am
Quoting imwim
Asteroid discovery suggests ingredients for life on Earth came from space... https://www.reuters.com/article/spac...-idUSL1N35P3HD
When a carpenter cuts a piece of wood sawdust falls to the floor, and he may also take the scraps of wood leftover and build other things since it's the material he uses when he builds.

It's understandable that the ingredients used in the physical world are present throughout the physical universe.
  • #107,734
  • Mar 22, 2023 8:46am Mar 22, 2023 8:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} See chart above. I wanted to short here. FOMC prevents what i would have done on a normal day. {image}
For sure... It's one of those day's that it makes sense to sit on the hands (or trade small), but some do really well during these events while others get their account smashed.
  • #107,735
  • Mar 22, 2023 9:12am Mar 22, 2023 9:12am
I don't see how this is good for the USD no matter what is done/said today. Anyone have thoughts on how this could be bullish for the USD (even if they did a .50 shock). The current news cycle is against the USD, and it may take a bit before the cycle to swing into other markets (it will).

Any thoughts, am I missing anything? What's your big picture view?
  • #107,736
  • Mar 22, 2023 9:34am Mar 22, 2023 9:34am
Quoting mmccormac
I don't see how this is good for the USD no matter what is done/said today. Anyone have thoughts on how this could be bullish for the USD (even if they did a .50 shock). The current news cycle is against the USD, and it may take a bit before the cycle to swing into other markets (it will). Any thoughts, am I missing anything? What's your big picture view?
It looks completely bullish. It most often will continue up. PA has reacted to this place. The last 2 times here, pa fell. I have R here that wasn't here the 2 other times.

After the minutes, if the day closes below 1.0765. That is usually a rejection. More so if this week closes below 1.0694. Even if it was to reach 1.0835, then falls below to those comments. It may drop. But as things stand now. it looks bullish.

Fundi wise, in 2008 the FED lowered rates, as the ECB raised. The eur/usd fell. That's opposite of what's most often expected. The FED raised hard on this rise since September.

I dont know where this goes. I know it usually closes below support to fall. Or closes above key levels to rise. It has pumped the last week. Its pump since the bank situation evolved. It often pumps before rate news.

I left a pending short at 1.0812. Because its a month level inside a bunch of other R. Nothing big.

Often the pump takes up all the slack. It already priced in things. The closes usually confirm whatever direction
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,737
  • Mar 22, 2023 9:49am Mar 22, 2023 9:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It looks completely bullish. It most often will continue up. PA has reacted to this place. The last 2 times here, pa fell. I have R here that wasn't here the 2 other times. After the minutes, if the day closes below 1.0765. That is usually a rejection. More so if this week closes below 1.0694. Even if it was to reach 1.0835, then falls below to those comments. It may drop. But as things stand now. it looks bullish. Fundi wise, in 2008 the FED lowered rates, as the ECB raised. The eur/usd fell. That's opposite of what's most often expected....
Thanks for the post! I can see why the USD would rise (risk-off) once this heats up on the macro side, along with the Yen of course, and falling yields... For now though, as you mentioned everyone has been trained for long the E/U pair since the bank situation (the pump)-(trap door caution).
  • #107,738
  • Mar 22, 2023 10:23am Mar 22, 2023 10:23am
Quoting mmccormac
{quote} Thanks for the post! I can see why the USD would rise (risk-off) once this heats up on the macro side, along with the Yen of course, and falling yields... For now though, as you mentioned everyone has been trained for long the E/U pair since the bank situation (the pump)-(trap door caution).
Price often returns to the 20sma. The month sits at 1.0812. The week and day 1.063x. 12h 1.0676, 8h 1.0689, 6h 1.0695 4h 1.0732. So either we bust 1.0812 wide open, or fight those others again. This all lined up bearish before reaching those 1.05xx lows.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,739
  • Mar 22, 2023 11:30am Mar 22, 2023 11:30am
FOMC Press Conference March 22, 2023...
Inserted Video
I am who I am
  • #107,740
  • Mar 22, 2023 2:18pm Mar 22, 2023 2:18pm
If i was bullish, 1.0843/51 looks interesting.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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