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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,361
  • May 9, 2007 9:46am May 9, 2007 9:46am
On a seperate note, does anyone knw what the feds decided about how to deal with the Japs and Chinese dirty-dealing their money on the market? I mean, everybody and their mom knows that there is no way the Yen can stay at the rate it is for the past 20 years while being the exporting monster it is. Money is being thrown on the streets for sure, WWII style.

But did we actually make a statement this time? Will the dollar be manipulated in a do-si-do (i.e increase dollar supply)? That would justify a huge long term short on the GBPUSD in my opinion.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4,362
  • May 9, 2007 9:53am May 9, 2007 9:53am
Quoting Plutonite
On a seperate note, does anyone knw what the feds decided about how to deal with the Japs and Chinese dirty-dealing their money on the market? I mean, everybody and their mom knows that there is no way the Yen can stay at the rate it is for the past 20 years while being the exporting monster it is. Money is being thrown on the streets for sure, WWII style.

But did we actually make a statement this time? Will the dollar be manipulated in a do-si-do (i.e increase dollar supply)? That would justify a huge long term short on the GBPUSD in my opinion.
All I got:

"10:01 Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will call on China to speed its adoption of a flexible exchange rate at a summit of U.S. and Chinese economic leaders this month, aTreasury official said."

"09:31 US Treasury aide says JPY value is set in open and competitive market, menaing the US Tsy has no problem with current JPY weakness and that's a green light for USD/JPY and JPY crosses to move higher"

In the other side of the Atlantic:

"09:10 -EUROGROUP'S JUNCKER SAYS YEN DOES NOT REFLECT ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS"

So overall, USA is much more worried, of course, with China than with Japan. While Europe is already sounding DESPERATE to see some Yen strength here FOR MOOONNNTTHHSSS

Know what? Japan and China are just not giving a rat's arse about them
  • #4,363
  • May 9, 2007 10:18am May 9, 2007 10:18am
Quoting cesarnc
All I got:

"10:01 Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will call on China to speed its adoption of a flexible exchange rate at a summit of U.S. and Chinese economic leaders this month, aTreasury official said."

"09:31 US Treasury aide says JPY value is set in open and competitive market, menaing the US Tsy has no problem with current JPY weakness and that's a green light for USD/JPY and JPY crosses to move higher"

In the other side of the Atlantic:

"09:10 -EUROGROUP'S JUNCKER SAYS YEN DOES NOT REFLECT ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS"

So overall, USA is much more worried, of course, with China than with Japan. While Europe is already sounding DESPERATE to see some Yen strength here FOR MOOONNNTTHHSSS

Know what? Japan and China are just not giving a rat's arse about them
LOL Very entertaining stuff. Those Europeans need to come over here and relax, or something. The world is beautiful! Nobody cheats! Visit disneyland! Thanks for the summary cesar, you are the man, as usual.

Since the European dude sounds rather p*ssed, I believe that at least the EUR should be starting to show long term weakness (from counter-dirty moves, or fear of counter moves). The US treasury can bark about crosses all they want, I only care about what they have to say for USD.

So far, this means the UJ is poised to continue up, EJ is dangerous and GJ will depend on who England wants to side with. Anyway, this is pure astrology, I am following a H4 chart for god's sake, let them do their worst.

Cheers
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4,364
  • May 9, 2007 10:24am May 9, 2007 10:24am
Quoting Plutonite
LOL Very entertaining stuff. Those Europeans need to come over here and relax, or something. The world is beautiful! Nobody cheats! Visit disneyland! Thanks for the summary cesar, you are the man, as usual.

Since the European dude sounds rather p*ssed, I believe that at least the EUR should be starting to show long term weakness (from counter-dirty moves, or fear of counter moves). The US treasury can bark about crosses all they want, I only care about what they have to say for USD.

So far, this means the UJ is poised to continue up, EJ is dangerous and GJ will depend on who England wants to side with. Anyway, this is pure astrology, I am following a H4 chart for god's sake, let them do their worst.

Cheers
Be aware that when those Central Banks Gentlemen start talking the same language, we'll be dead meat here...

Those B.S. talkings are what bring us nice trades

  • #4,365
  • May 9, 2007 1:45pm May 9, 2007 1:45pm
Quoting cesarnc
All I got:

"10:01 Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will call on China to speed its adoption of a flexible exchange rate at a summit of U.S. and Chinese economic leaders this month, aTreasury official said."

"09:31 US Treasury aide says JPY value is set in open and competitive market, menaing the US Tsy has no problem with current JPY weakness and that's a green light for USD/JPY and JPY crosses to move higher"

In the other side of the Atlantic:

"09:10 -EUROGROUP'S JUNCKER SAYS YEN DOES NOT REFLECT ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS"

So overall, USA is much more worried, of course, with China than with Japan. While Europe is already sounding DESPERATE to see some Yen strength here FOR MOOONNNTTHHSSS

Know what? Japan and China are just not giving a rat's arse about them
So we may see EUR/JPY moving lower and possibly USD/JPY doing the same but with less strength/correlation.
  • #4,366
  • May 9, 2007 2:08pm May 9, 2007 2:08pm
This was a lackluster movement for the usd/yen pair.

I wonder if the setiment is positive for usd for the rest of the week.
  • #4,367
  • May 9, 2007 4:08pm May 9, 2007 4:08pm
Time to short overbought on hourly and 5 min.... Hey Sami 772 - what's up with the name?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,368
  • May 9, 2007 4:30pm May 9, 2007 4:30pm
Quoting Sami7
Time to short overbought on hourly and 5 min.... Hey Sami 772 - what's up with the name?
Finally this market start making SOME sense to me. GBP was the only currency to gain some value before FOMC, as would be expected ahead of BOE's.

During the dollar frenzy, GU naturally lost ground but GBP held high levels in relation to other pairs (EUR, JPY, CHF).

Stage is set for tomorrow.

  • #4,369
  • May 9, 2007 4:40pm May 9, 2007 4:40pm
Cesar, I've been away from the thread - what do you think will happen in regards to the movement from the BOE announcement. Are you saying this retracement is indicative of where we might be heading? Short, then long?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,370
  • May 9, 2007 4:56pm May 9, 2007 4:56pm
Quoting Sami7
Cesar, I've been away from the thread - what do you think will happen in regards to the movement from the BOE announcement. Are you saying this retracement is indicative of where we might be heading? Short, then long?
As Cable failed to go below the 9840 mark (previous toppish for months, now proved bottomish) the bias is consolidative, although extending a bit too long as says the comments I read.

Tomorrow is 0.25% hike. BOE can surprise bringing 0.5%, but as the intention is to buffer inflation only, there's the risk of an excessive reaction (all markets) in case of 0.5%. "Watchout not to overkill" is what BOE is being told.

So, it will be key to watch next CPIs and Retail Sales as to figure out whether or not another hike is coming soon. Market's perception was that 5.5% would be toppish for 2007 (that would trigger a large profit taking), but as rumors have it, looks like 5.75% is sneaking around as toppish.

GJ will be even more attractive with the bigger rate differentials.

I'm looking for new highs (GU) after this announcement. Possibly on Friday or on next week and then a likely correction as to preserve 98s as bottomish at least until poor CPIs pop up. Thus GJ upside potential will be widen up, specially if UJ remains bullish for quite some time.

Scenario denied if cable fails to push through 0131.
  • #4,371
  • May 9, 2007 5:02pm May 9, 2007 5:02pm
Quoting Sami7
Cesar, I've been away from the thread - what do you think will happen in regards to the movement from the BOE announcement. Are you saying this retracement is indicative of where we might be heading? Short, then long?
And please, Sami, pleeeasee change this avatar... I'm GU, UJ and GJ long here.

I know the polar bear is cute, but c'mon....

  • #4,372
  • May 9, 2007 5:28pm May 9, 2007 5:28pm
Quoting Sami7
Time to short overbought on hourly and 5 min.... Hey Sami 772 - what's up with the name?
very nice name , but who is the first?
....
  • #4,373
  • May 9, 2007 5:31pm May 9, 2007 5:31pm
IMHO GBP/JPY has started her last march north before she move south. I dun think GBP economy is able to cope with her high currency value for long. I think the last march will end at 240.5 though.

BUT enjoy the ride north GUYS!

damn my three pairs are still in red lol.....
  • #4,374
  • May 9, 2007 5:37pm May 9, 2007 5:37pm
Quoting sami772
very nice name , but who is the first?
Well according to the number of posts, I'd say I was....
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,375
  • May 9, 2007 6:14pm May 9, 2007 6:14pm
Quoting cesarnc
And please, Sami, pleeeasee change this avatar... I'm GU, UJ and GJ long here.

I know the polar bear is cute, but c'mon....

Here you go. Temporary until after BOE
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,376
  • May 9, 2007 6:17pm May 9, 2007 6:17pm
Quoting Sami7
Here you go.
BEAR IN THE DOLLAR BILL!!!

That's what I'm asking for. For DAYS already.

Thanks you Sami, for you kindness and generosity.
  • #4,377
  • May 9, 2007 6:28pm May 9, 2007 6:28pm
Quoting cesarnc
BEAR IN THE DOLLAR BILL!!!

That's what I'm asking for. For DAYS already.

Thanks you Sami, for you kindness and generosity.
Good one
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,378
  • May 9, 2007 6:35pm May 9, 2007 6:35pm
Another opportunity to short on 1 hour chart. Overbought again. Made a scalp before on it.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,379
  • May 9, 2007 6:44pm May 9, 2007 6:44pm
HEY SAMI7!!!

UR AVATAR IS SIMPLY AWESOME!!!! LOL

iiivb
  • #4,380
  • May 9, 2007 6:47pm May 9, 2007 6:47pm
Quoting iiivb
HEY SAMI7!!!

UR AVATAR IS SIMPLY AWESOME!!!! LOL
iiivb

Thanks! wondering if I should change my name next?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
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