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Filled today to come off Thurs/Fri.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
also NDX dbl calendars, although I have work to do tomorrow to fill both sides. Tough to fill wide spreads, but could be well worth it if we get a big move post FOMC.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
SPX/SPY for the week. Put side, SPX Mar24/27 diag with a SPY Mar 27 bear put vert guard....will try to enter tomorrow or Wed open, to adjust on entry
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
calls, bullish breakout to near 4100 possible by Friday, em @ 4,050 as of now. The call diag goes on for a credit so I can over-size, maybe bring in the SPY bull call hedge
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Credit anticipates, equity confirms.
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I guess we'll see fear subside, rates come up some. Idk what the Fed can do to spook the market now. We just had a week of systemic risk drama, and it barely made dent. Six of the last 7 daily spoos candles green. Naz up >7% in the last week alone. Dominant market expectation seems to be FOMC will do the 25bps, but also will make some kind of sign, maybe just the slightest wink, that there will be a pause. No way markets won't explode higher if that's the deal.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
Credit anticipates, equity confirms. {image} I guess we'll see fear subside, rates come up some. Idk what the Fed can do to spook the market now. We just had a week of systemic risk drama, and it barely made dent. Six of the last 7 daily spoos candles green. Naz up >7% in the last week alone. Dominant market expectation seems to be FOMC will do the 25bps, but also will make some kind of sign, maybe just the slightest wink, that there will be a pause. No way markets won't explode higher if that's the deal.
Gotta imagine if we pop tmmrw itll get sold into by desperate and over eager bears.
3650 is likely the downside risk to put a dagger in the macro bullish thesis, but that certainly doesnt mean we have to actually print it.... Still holding the long macro book. No changes.
All I got done today was buy out the put leg of the Mar24 SPX funding IC - in that for about $2 and out for $0.35. Got a lot of bp to blow on lotto tix tomorrow now. Will have to fade some of this bull froth.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Gotta imagine if we pop tmmrw itll get sold into by desperate and over eager bears. 3650 is likely the downside risk to put a dagger in the macro bullish thesis, but that certainly doesnt mean we have to actually print it.... Still holding the long macro book. No changes.
no doubt rips will be sold, dips will be bought, as it has always been, since the beginning of time. I just need to see some follow through in one direction for 2-3 days post-FOMC. Is that too much to ask? Especially need to see NDX put on another 2sigma move to close the week....always on the edge of Glory....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
{quote}no doubt rips will be sold, dips will be bought, as it has always been, since the beginning of time. I just need to see some follow through in one direction for 2-3 days post-FOMC. Is that too much to ask? Especially need to see NDX put on another 2sigma move to close the week....always on the edge of Glory.... {image}
I got my backspreads at the ready

they cant crash it, it would put me into retirement on a Caribbean island…. Im sure we likely just clear the range and print a giant Darth Mail candle on the day…

but, as always, a girl can dream
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} …. Im sure we likely just clear the range and print a giant Darth Mail candle on the day… but, as always, a girl can dream
Yeah, you know Uncle Jerry will bring the hawk. "Hey kids, wanna see my Dot Plot?" ...."Eeeew! Put it away!" ......I have some 2sigma red plays queued up for SPX. Thurs-Fri would be a good time for another regional bank to fall thru the Earth's crust. I always liked Darth Maul. Here around Seattle, I still see guys with the permanent prosthetic antler nubs.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
JPow comments bullish ! Load up!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Gotta imagine if we pop tmmrw itll get sold into by desperate and over eager bears. 3650 is likely the downside risk to put a dagger in the macro bullish thesis, but that certainly doesnt mean we have to actually print it.... Still holding the long macro book. No changes.
Imagine being bearish and thinking youre in control….
Quoting The Fool
JPow comments bullish ! Load up!
...and then there was JY. They giveth and they taketh awayeth. Buggered my NDX dreams. But, early today I shored up my bear case with SPX and IWM put calendars and verts. Just not believing the FOMO market can string together much of a bear run without some news to support that. I just need 2 days of trend....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
{quote}... I just need 2 days of trend....
....this has all the signs of another sideways run. US index futures green in early Asia, I expect they will rally to the end of the week. But probably not hard enough. Markets are firmly convinced of the bull case - the tightening rates cycle is ending. There is no bear case unless it's a resurgence of contagion risk. Sideways is the new down....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....this has all the signs of another sideways run. US index futures green in early Asia, I expect they will rally to the end of the week. But probably not hard enough. Markets are firmly convinced of the bull case - the tightening rates cycle is ending. There is no bear case unless it's a resurgence of contagion risk. Sideways is the new down....
Dude Whats happening is monstrously bullish…. This basing is just an accumulation for a major major move.

As always timing is the devil. And I dont have a good idea when its going to happen. But usually when thats the case it means its close. Im buying a lot of short dated gamma…. My prop algo(aptly named TardBot, because I built it from scratch) really sees 4550-4600 within 6-8 weeks…

you know how it works, a tiny bit at first, then all at once…
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} My prop algo(aptly named TardBot, because I built it from scratch) really sees 4550-4600 within 6-8 weeks… you know how it works, a tiny bit at first, then all at once…
Well, I can't usually think that far ahead. But I see tech leading a rally into earnings season, anyway. Which is about 4 weeks. Easy to see NDX back to 15,000+ by then. Spectacular lotto wins out there just waiting for the lucky and the bold.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Spectacular lotto wins out there just waiting for the lucky and the bold.
ok liquidity in NDX monthly expiries; cheap calendars and verts in the calls have easy 100x roi......IF we get that run up for a few weeks....vert shown $250 wide you can buy for <$150....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
week-wide call calendar Apr21/28, @ 14,775 - <$5k bet could net 80:1 or much more if you get the long calls to run alone in the last week
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
JY really fucked me. I likely roll all put side spreads this morning, but that will result in small losses at best. If NDX has a great day and gets back above 13,000, I might make a couple bucks on the call calendar, enough to be for the week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
I'm in good profit @ bearish spreads with this dump in the last hour. It'll be even better tomorrow, but this market can't be trusted to go in a single direction for anything over a day. I must always remember my rules:

https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=2
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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