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Price Action Trading (PAT) - Amplifying Market Insights

  • #361
  • Mar 19, 2023 12:15am Mar 19, 2023 12:15am
Quoting Rossidi
{quote} what is the highest can it go Pat (agak2)
This thread is different from other thread.
We don't give signal.

A good trader can never truly know where price want to go next., or when the market will shift between sideways and trending modes.

To make a simple analogy trading strategy in a non-stationary price chart is like trying to score a goal with moving goal posts by the time the ball reaches the goal the goal posts will be in a different position and you'll miss the goal completely

It is better for you to share analysis in this thread, rather than waititng for trade signal.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #362
  • Mar 19, 2023 3:25am Mar 19, 2023 3:25am
Quoting FocusWinReal
{quote} Firstly, it doesn't matter. Secondly, most would have, being the nature of the herd. Thirdly, the stats would be interesting to see. And wouldn't it be great if 95% went long?
Thanks for your reply.....I think
  • #363
  • Mar 19, 2023 3:53am Mar 19, 2023 3:53am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} This thread is different from other thread. We don't give signal. A good trader can never truly know where price want to go next., or when the market will shift between sideways and trending modes. To make a simple analogy trading strategy in a non-stationary price chart is like trying to score a goal with moving goal posts by the time the ball reaches the goal the goal posts will be in a different position and you'll miss the goal completely It is better for you to share analysis in this thread, rather than waititng for trade signal.
For me personally, my trading only became profitable when I started not trying to predict the market, it was like taking the weight of the world off my shoulders, don't get me wrong trading is still immensely hard and always will be, it has to be or else we would all be rich and we know that just can't happen........Pat again thanks for answering questions that are put to you, I'm finding more and more when you ask someone a question they just come back with more dribble rather than and answer to the question, then they get upset and start telling you that you don't live in the real world, can't trade for shit and only their view/opinion is the right one, so please if anyone posts a statement have some sort of answer to back it up, if not then just don't post it .....have the bestest day everyone...
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  • #364
  • Mar 19, 2023 3:54am Mar 19, 2023 3:54am
Quoting FocusWinReal
{quote} Firstly, it doesn't matter. Secondly, most would have, being the nature of the herd. Thirdly, the stats would be interesting to see. And wouldn't it be great if 95% went long?
Here you go, 86% short 14% long...

https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook/XAUUSD

but that doesn't always have to mean anything, and myfx is only a small sample of global trading;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #365
  • Mar 19, 2023 4:11am Mar 19, 2023 4:11am
This is always my dilemma, underwater GU, underwater GOLD but flying high with DJIA, overall in profit, cant' bring myself to take a loss on GU or GOLD but could easily closed my DJIA, will wait sit on it for another week me thinks, exit is so much harder than entry for me, I'm sure there are others that have this dilemma please share your experiences and maybe what you would do in my situation but please no predictions ...
  • #366
  • Mar 19, 2023 4:13am Mar 19, 2023 4:13am
@pat

for the last 2-3 years i have only been trading GU. you recently said that UJ also has nice trends and you are right. i am now taking a look at UJ with one eye.

one question about your splitorders: when you enter you buy e.g. 15lots on 5x3 all at similar price levels. why don't you buy 15lots at once?

when you exit, it is clear to me that you only want to make partial sales. but you can also do that later with a large original total buy order of e.g. 15lots.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #367
  • Mar 19, 2023 4:44am Mar 19, 2023 4:44am
Quoting Waveskierrob
This is always my dilemma, underwater GU, underwater GOLD but flying high with DJIA, overall in profit, cant' bring myself to take a loss on GU or GOLD but could easily closed my DJIA, will wait sit on it for another week me thinks, exit is so much harder than entry for me, I'm sure there are others that have this dilemma please share your experiences and maybe what you would do in my situation but please no predictions ...
i'm still experimenting with averaging, i do enter into real orders but still with a small volume for me.

what i notice is that i perform better when i limit my orders daily. i.e. only one order per currency pair per day.

if it doesn't reach my TP of e.g. 30-50 points, then i try to start averaging the next day. this way i avoid averaging into a freight train in a 200-300 pip day;-)


to indices: i would only go long equity indices, as they have a growth component. in the long term they tend to go up.

and gold is too trendy for me, but that's just my opinion.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #368
  • Mar 19, 2023 4:56am Mar 19, 2023 4:56am
Quoting birdland
{quote} i'm still experimenting with averaging, i do enter into real orders but still with a small volume for me. what i notice is that i perform better when i limit my orders daily. i.e. only one order per currency pair per day. if it doesn't reach my TP of e.g. 30-50 points, then i try to start averaging the next day. this way i avoid averaging into a freight train in a 200-300 pip day;-) and i would only go long equity indices, as they have a growth component. in the long term they tend to go up. and gold is too trendy for me, but that's just...
Thanks for reply, I like your thinking will put that one in my box of trading tools.......yes only just started with GOLD as you rightly said too trendy and you know my style favours a ranging market (won't be trading GOLD again...), just occurred to me that GOLD is just ONE commodity and indices MANY and forex PAIRS, so it makes sense that ONE would trend more then say indices as as there are more factors to price in ...thanks Bird something for me to think about...
  • #369
  • Mar 19, 2023 5:21am Mar 19, 2023 5:21am
Quoting Waveskierrob
This is always my dilemma, underwater GU, underwater GOLD but flying high with DJIA, overall in profit, cant' bring myself to take a loss on GU or GOLD but could easily closed my DJIA, will wait sit on it for another week me thinks, exit is so much harder than entry for me, I'm sure there are others that have this dilemma please share your experiences and maybe what you would do in my situation but please no predictions ...
I am a newbie so I dont have much experience but from my limited experience I found that:
- I have never regretted early loss but always regretted early profit-taking.
- Being in drawdown for longer period of time affects my stress level.
- I abandoned a very good strategy with many high win rate, many small profit few big loss. Overall, it was making me money but those few losses were always there that would take a significant portion of my profit. And this affected my psychology knowing that no matter how much i make I will eventually have to give back a significant chunk of my profits.
-Long term goal is scalability for me - to trade big lots make big money and keep improving. If I dont measure risk now then it will be hard to scale up on lot size because I dont know EXACTLY how much I am losing. And that could mean a devastating loss when trading big lots.
  • #370
  • Mar 19, 2023 5:39am Mar 19, 2023 5:39am
Quoting alwaysloser
{quote} I am a newbie so I dont have much experience but from my limited experience I found that: - I have never regretted early loss but always regretted early profit-taking. - Being in drawdown for longer period of time affects my stress level. - I abandoned a very good strategy with many high win rate, many small profit few big loss. Overall, it was making me money but those few losses were always there that would take a significant portion of my profit. And this affected my psychology knowing that no matter how much i make I will eventually...
Newbie you are certainly not, your post says so, again it always comes back to psychology and we all have different levels as I am happy to take early profit and let losing trade run (up to a certain point) probably due to the fact I have experience which equals confidence that I will make profit in the end big or small, I suppose it depends on how you look at things eg if you made a $1,000,000 profit in a day you would be happy but if you were up $21,000,000 then lost $20,000,000 in day then you would be pissed off but in the end same result...
  • #371
  • Mar 19, 2023 8:15am Mar 19, 2023 8:15am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} eg if you made a $1,000,000 profit in a day you would be happy but if you were up $21,000,000 then lost $20,000,000 in day then you would be pissed off but in the end same result...
Your words always on fire
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #372
  • Mar 19, 2023 8:19am Mar 19, 2023 8:19am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} This thread is different from other thread. We don't give signal. A good trader can never truly know where price want to go next., or when the market will shift between sideways and trending modes. To make a simple analogy trading strategy in a non-stationary price chart is like trying to score a goal with moving goal posts by the time the ball reaches the goal the goal posts will be in a different position and you'll miss the goal completely It is better for you to share analysis in this thread, rather than waititng for trade signal.
Pat, i'm taking this positively. I believe you mentioned not only to me but others too...
  • #373
  • Mar 19, 2023 12:14pm Mar 19, 2023 12:14pm
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The chart below means nothing to the trader who doesn't use HP, or EW or doesn't have enough knowledge of TA. But a savvy person would compare their support/resistance zone with my chart and use it to their advantage keeping in mind the TF the analysis is done on and the tools presented here (do you trade bounce of TL-3rd touch- or break out?) How do you react if the market doesn't do what you expected? Are you going to reverse, or only close the trade if you are wrong? Those and many other questions should have answers before the trade is taken. Sticking to our own trading plan is the best solution by my standards but using others' analysis and suggestions can be beneficial if we know how to utilize others' knowledge. Good luck to all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #374
  • Mar 19, 2023 2:56pm Mar 19, 2023 2:56pm
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My telegram: https://t.me/avidforex
  • #375
  • Mar 19, 2023 8:42pm Mar 19, 2023 8:42pm
Weekly open at 1.22, has closed gap with last week's close. Need a strong daily break above 1.22. If happens, 1.24 next. FOMC and BEO will decide that this week.
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Daily is between 50 & 61.8 Fib. Good possibility to test 1.2125 today. (50% Fib) as Friday's daily closed below 61.8

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  • #376
  • Mar 20, 2023 1:56am Mar 20, 2023 1:56am
Quoting DerTrader
Weekly open at 1.22, has closed gap with last week's close. Need a strong daily break above 1.22. If happens, 1.24 next. FOMC and BEO will decide that this week. {image} Daily is between 50 & 61.8 Fib. Good possibility to test 1.2125 today. (50% Fib) as Friday's daily closed below 61.8 {image}
I have always had a question about the Fibonacci indicator.
Why would we think that 61.8% would be a good support/resistance level?
Just follow the trend.
  • #377
  • Mar 20, 2023 5:58am Mar 20, 2023 5:58am
Quoting lucaswalliam
{quote} I have always had a question about the Fibonacci indicator. Why would we think that 61.8% would be a good support/resistance level?
you know big players want to eat small players.

so a lot of stops should be explode. at that time big player has some calculation according to percentage change of currency.

he wins money open and close different level position

for example
he start to buy eu 1.10 till 1.20 if bought aritmetic his avarage is %50 so 1,15 is avarage cost
if first buy is better (for example he exlode stops below 1.10 1,0990) his avarge is 61,8(not certain nearly) just math
more explosions generate less cost


when price come that avarage level he is at avarage cost ( level to defend)

you can try on your own with demo

these are my opinion of course
  • #378
  • Mar 20, 2023 7:32am Mar 20, 2023 7:32am
DXY

Pull back in prep for Wed FOMC.
Accumulation phase.
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #379
  • Mar 20, 2023 7:34am Mar 20, 2023 7:34am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} EU End of scalping to target. {image}

EU

Traget 2
Pull back . aaccumulation for FOMC
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #380
  • Mar 20, 2023 7:36am Mar 20, 2023 7:36am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GU End of scalping. Life as day trader. {image}
GU

target 2
pullback
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
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