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  • #101
  • Mar 18, 2023 9:03am Mar 18, 2023 9:03am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Hold on a minute. ANY long trade I execute, REGARDLESS of the TF, ofc I know where my cut-off point is..otherwise we go down the rabbit hole of martingales and ever-increasing drawdown. I'm telling you my assumptions, but at the same time you are making an assumption about me which I have to tell you is wrong too. I may not know the "banks intent" or where you may have calculated support for that trade to be, but that does NOT mean I have just enter a trade blind as you put it. Blind to your trading methods, maybe.
Hi DM, my post is not directed at you or anyone in particular. Let's be clear about that. I wrote thousand times I aim at technical analysis, not the person.

So you agree traders must have an idea where support is when they execute a long trade.

My question is, by what means does the trader derive his support from? Technical analysis, isn't it? Someone gave them this idea and the trader assumed it to be true without logical questioning if the assumptions make sense or not, isn't it?

How many traders execute long trades and have an idea where the support level?

Where is price heading to? On what basis does the trader assume price head to next? Technical analysis, isn't it?

Why don't FF members feel comfortable to discuss this difficult subject?

I repeat, my point is directed at the efficacy of technical analysis. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #102
  • Mar 18, 2023 9:35am Mar 18, 2023 9:35am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi DM, my post is not directed at you or anyone in particular. Let's be clear about that. I wrote thousand times I aim at technical analysis, not the person. So you agree traders must have an idea where support is when they execute a long trade. My question is, by what means does the trader derive his support from? Technical analysis, isn't it? Someone gave them this idea and the trader assumed it to be true without logical questioning if the assumptions make sense or not, isn't it? How many traders execute long trades and have an idea where...
I think you could make your point better if you had said, I have tried TA for many years and I have found that it make No sense to me as I have not
gained any advantage from it.

Your personal experience, sees no value. - That is a perfectly acceptable standpoint.

However I have discovered something that works better for me and I will try & discuss my own personal analysis methods.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #103
  • Mar 18, 2023 9:53am Mar 18, 2023 9:53am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Nearly all TA tools and techniques are derived from equity markets and trading. Maybe a place to start, or at least to include in this discussion, is how equity markets compare to the highly controlled and manipulated forex market?
Hi GEfx, yes you are correct. We have this cross adaptation. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #104
  • Mar 18, 2023 10:39am Mar 18, 2023 10:39am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi whitesta, this tool is readily available on the MT4 apps. I repeatedly told for years now I make live calls on my phone. Figure out which tool on the MT4 apps that fit this bill. Do your homework. Shouldn't be too difficult to figure out. There's only one tool that retail traders attach it to support resistance. Those members who accuse me of selling and scamming. Well I can't sell standard MT4 apps tool. Cheers
Hi Bwilliam,

Enjoying your thought-provoking thread as well all of your previous postings. You raise many good points about TA.

There was a trader (want name him) that has since departed from FF that shared similar thoughts as you on TA & several of his postings started me to thinking outside of the traditional TA box. That thinking has led me to a much more successful way of trading.

Your post #52 & #93 are very insightful. Would you mind elaborating on the above post directed to Trader whitesta? My efforts to look into what you share were unsuccessful.

Thank you for always sharing your thoughts, views & comments with those that are always trying to learn more about this business from those that have learned more.
  • #105
  • Mar 18, 2023 7:11pm Mar 18, 2023 7:11pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
So, to keep it simple, go through all ways you have used or tested etc, that may assist to see or point to feasible reversals. In many of my own writings on this site you'll see many eg's. But I'm sure you have tried several yourself as have others. Beyond this, trial your own ideas based on HOW a market likes to move and turn. The rest is down to experience. With experience you will start to learn what to use and when. A tight stop level may not be the wisest choice when trading eg GBPUSD, that likes to create large blowback spikes as it moves...
Hi Peter,

Person A describe how he define reversals, whatever that may be.

Person A goes on to say he doesn't know how low the support, or how high the resistance.

Person A goes on to say nobody know how high the bullish swing, or how low the bearish swing.

Person A continues with no one knows the future.

Yet person A insists this market is not random, it's highly organised to him.

What do you and readers make of all that he has written?

To me, there's glaring contradiction. A messy confusion. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #106
  • Edited 9:22pm Mar 18, 2023 7:51pm | Edited 9:22pm
My observation reveals that traditional Technical Analysis reinforces our confirmation bias instead of observing the market in real-time and assessing the current situation.

Example:

Price is rising then people see divergence in RSI/CCI/MACD/etc, subconsciously, people find all the reasons for a signal entry:

  1. looking for round numbers to buy/sell
  2. previous swings that could be support/resistance
  3. fibonacci drawings to predict where it would reverse
  4. adding other indicator to re-enforce the signal (like pivots/bollinger band/TMA/TDI/etc. the more the better confirmation?)

Not only that they find all the reasons, as the market goes on, they find additional reasons to reinforce such trade idea.

People call this confluence, but could it be confirmation bias?

The problem perhaps is that these confirm people's pre-existing beliefs and ignoring or downplaying evidence that contradicts their views. This kind of confirmation bias can be a serious problem for traders, as it can lead to poor decision-making and missed opportunities.

I think everybody can relate.

  1. We put sell order because there is a regular divergence
  2. We found all the reason to sell because of other "confluence"
  3. We found additional reasons as the market goes on
  4. Price keeps on pumping yet we add sell for every pip move because "our minds are fixed that this market will dump"
  5. In the end, we lose it all
  6. Then we examine the chart in higher time frame or any other analysis (trying to justify the move in hindsight)
  7. Then we blame ourselves because we did not saw that price is in "demand zone" or it is at "weekly POC" or "weekly divergence", etc...
  8. We lost money then punish ourselves more

Perhaps the truth is that most people have stopped asking real-time questions about the markets/algos/banks' intentions and where they will most probably move the price because, in their minds, they already have a fixed direction thanks to the previous ideas learned from forums and YouTube about traditional TA, like divergence.

I am not criticizing divergence trading or those who use such indicators for divergence.

Please don't misunderstand me and think I am attacking someone or a strategy, the discussion is about confirmation bias only.

So the point of all of this is, we should examine our pre-existing beliefs about traditional TA and how it affects our objective thinking.

Perhaps we could start digging about the calculations why RSI shows divergence? Instead of relying blindly to a circulating image showing how to trade divergence?

Thanks for your time.

The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #107
  • Edited 9:47pm Mar 18, 2023 9:33pm | Edited 9:47pm
Quoting FulMargnAlch
My observation reveals that traditional Technical Analysis reinforces our confirmation bias instead of observing the market in real-time and assessing the current situation. Example: Price is rising then people see divergence in RSI/CCI/MACD/etc, subconsciously, people find all the reasons for a signal entry: looking for round numbers to buy/sell previous swings that could be support/resistance fibonacci drawings to predict where it would reverse adding other indicator to re-enforce the signal (like pivots/bollinger band/TMA/TDI/etc. the more the...
Hi FulMargnAlch

"We should examine our pre-existing beliefs about traditional TA and how it affects our objective thinking".
Very nice statement, in other words TA is just a reflection of our minds confusion. It just gives us mixed signals where we always seem to take the wrong bias.

What I see is there is only three reasons price to trend Long if we study Bids & Asks.
1.. Selling limit order dominance over 20% in the books
2.. Large aggressive Long Market orders
3.. Pulling of Asks

TA is a waste of time unless we know what's happening within a candle, so we need to be able to see this process.
Lets look at Gold, how many traders in Forex factory are now short on Gold because of some TA over- brought indicator.
Hope they don't lose money, but it's a bloody Long if you look at the order books objectively without TA.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #108
  • Mar 18, 2023 9:48pm Mar 18, 2023 9:48pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi FulMargnAlch "We should examine our pre-existing beliefs about traditional TA and how it affects our objective thinking". Very nice statement, in other words TA is just a reflection of our minds confusion. It just gives us mixed signals where we always seem to take the wrong bias. What I see is there is only three reasons price to trend Long if we study Bids & Asks. 1.. Selling limit order dominance over 20% in the books 2.. Large aggressive Long Market orders 3.. Pulling of Asks TA is a waste of time unless we know what's happening within...
I can sense your three reasons came from research and experience, not some google image telling it so for the public's consumption.

I even suggest people who want to follow that line of thinking to test it themselves.

'''
What I see is there is only three reasons price to trend Long if we study Bids & Asks.
1.. Selling limit order dominance over 20% in the books
2.. Large aggressive Long Market orders
3.. Pulling of Asks
'''

Perhaps only someone with enormous resources can do those three things? So the only thing we can do is wait for their move and act accordingly?

Thanks for these insightful statements.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #109
  • Mar 18, 2023 10:46pm Mar 18, 2023 10:46pm
Quoting RickM
Very nice statement, in other words TA is just a reflection of our minds confusion. It just gives us mixed signals where we always seem to take the wrong bias.
Hi RickM, this is the reason why TA is faulty, misleading and dangerous. If anyone read my post history, I have been telling this for a long time. And ofc my message offended FF members who are die hard TA traders. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #110
  • Mar 18, 2023 10:53pm Mar 18, 2023 10:53pm
Quoting RickM
Lets look at Gold, how many traders in Forex factory are now short on Gold because of some TA over- brought indicator. Hope they don't lose money, but it's a bloody Long if you look at the order books objectively without TA. Cheers
Hi RickM, when price of gold rise these TA traders look left for previous day or week or month high, labeling them resistance. The higher the timeframe the stronger the resistance the more sellers jump on the bandwagon. Or when price hit some fib level, pivot and whatnot. There's also this idea of divergence which is deemed the best signal to sell. What goes up must come down. That's what TA taught them. Explains for why traders sell in rising market. Vv. Especially when the rise is rapid showing a sharp spike.

My question is a simple one, there's this underlying assumption of resistance just by drawing lines. Does it make logical sense this TA resistance label? Are there any trader who think logical on FF? Yes, I do know a few who don't fall for this crap. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #111
  • Mar 18, 2023 11:10pm Mar 18, 2023 11:10pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Peter, Person A describe how he define reversals, whatever that may be. Person A goes on to say he doesn't know how low the support, or how high the resistance. Person A goes on to say nobody know how high the bullish swing, or how low the bearish swing. Person A continues with no one knows the future. Yet person A insists this market is not random, it's highly organised to him. What do you and readers make of all that he has written? To me, there's glaring contradiction. A messy confusion. Cheers
People (post year 2000) come into a new activity and give no thought to stretching their minds and thinking inline with their past to present knolwedge, emotions and experiences. PERIOD. End of every conversation necessary. If a person would stop shunning away from this, then THIS WRETCHED SITE and all the other revolting BS of its kind would inevitably dissolve because a person could think for themself, taking into consideration their past and themself now. Therefore, the person can keep themself in CHECK. These things (sites etc) would have no following and people would have no need for what it offers. It's NOT fuckin' rocket science. WE used to call it COMMON SENSE. Didn't need a shrink or "google" or frickin' "ff" etc.

Suggestion to people : Grow some fuckin' balls and backbone and get honest about you, your past and then look at the industry and the activity of "trading". I just finished with some turd brained moron who holds "peer sway" over other people who "doesn't like me or what I said". I say "Get offline you fuckin' git and grow some balls and stop pretending you're using your brain...... being online!" Worst thing is, most people are not stupid. They just need a shove into the dark so they can start being honest.

So I have one word for everyone ....... Ready .......

OBSERVATIONS.

OBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONS

Nothing is more potent as it helps you challenge everything you think is true and real. TA is just a tool. End of discussion. EVERY SINGLE FUCKIN' DAY ..... Make personal observations, write them down IN FULL. INSERT EVERY DETAIL. Write down your thoughts on what you see and the outcomes that prevail. Add to personal blueprint. Next day ...... Repeat. Day after that - REPEAT. Day AFTER THAT ..... guess what?!! .... REPEAT. After some time you will begin to see a "map" and you will also begin to see you IN that map IF you are looking at your own assumptions, knowledge, experience, know-how etc etc etc. Stop playing intellectual trader and DO the work.

I've had enough "arguments" with people on here now, to know this ...... it's gonna take many people a hundred years to get to step 2 3 or 4. WHY? Not organized and listening to others who talk SO MUCH FUCKIN' BULLSHIT it's just SO FAR past a joke now. Life, people and money, sprinkled with some human society. There is your measuring stick. Everything in between is happening on a personal level and must be treated accordingly.

I know that many people don't know much about personal psychology but FUCK ME!!! COME ON people.

Whether you want to learn or unlearn something there must be a starting point. Observations are key. Everything else is just gravy on top.

Yeah Ok I'm finished now. Hehehehehe.


Peter

PS - From day one here, I have said "Don't try to do it all in your head, BIIIIG mistake".
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #112
  • Mar 18, 2023 11:15pm Mar 18, 2023 11:15pm
There is a real skill to not caring about being "ignored" on these silly sites when speaking about real things. Just use your time better.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #113
  • Mar 18, 2023 11:45pm Mar 18, 2023 11:45pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
There is a real skill to not caring about being "ignored" on these silly sites when speaking about real things. Just use your time better. Peter
FF seems to be a site full of kids. Or stupids. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #114
  • Mar 19, 2023 2:14am Mar 19, 2023 2:14am
Quoting PeterCaleb
There is a real skill to not caring about being "ignored" on these silly sites when speaking about real things. Just use your time better. Peter
Hi Peter

Obviously I do have that real skill of not caring about being ignored on silly sites like Forex Factory, because you have me on the ignored list.

Along with Aussi, Tooslow, B.Mir, Norling, Miksiu, mixedbag, GEfx, tiborf71, joyny, mallee, moodybot, jmn5611, ryuryu, bfx17, viktor, rtopa43

Can I say if you decide to voice BIG opinions here, you should also be able to take criticism of those words.
Please try to consider other people's opinions without being such an old dismissive old bugger.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #115
  • Mar 19, 2023 3:25am Mar 19, 2023 3:25am
Retail traders tend to overthink this Forex market with all sorts of faulty assumptions. If you look from the view of the banks who move price it's actually very simple. And intraday price move like an aircraft carrier, slow and with clear intent. Doesn't it sound logical that banks move price with clear intent?

The problem is retail traders are indoctrinated with the faulty retail sector narrative that marketers and broker reps push into retail traders mindset. Judging by the posts on FF it looks like impossible to change this entrenched mindset. Banks intent is so simple yet retail traders converted it into something so complicated. Too bad, threads like mine is a waste, probably a handful see the message I bring, brave enough to make changes to discard primitive TA.

If you do the same thing, you get the same result. Unless and until you conscientiously change your underlying base belief to that which make logical sense. Fact is you will be left behind. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #116
  • Mar 19, 2023 3:38am Mar 19, 2023 3:38am
Quoting BWilliam
Retail traders tend to overthink this Forex market with all sorts of faulty assumptions. If you look from the view of the banks who move price it's actually very simple. And intraday price move like an aircraft carrier, slow and with clear intent. Doesn't it sound logical that banks move price with clear intent? The problem is retail traders are indoctrinated with the faulty retail sector narrative that marketers and broker reps push into retail traders mindset. Judging by the posts on FF it looks like impossible to change this entrenched mindset....
Those who can see the intent and the bank targets maybe really successful and milking pips. Good on em. Well you definitely have a point but as per stats its not easy or there may not have been close to 90% traders who fail. Some traders mark these lines just to see what the average trader maybe doing. Not necessarily to place trades but to look for reactions. They may not make 50 pips but few pips just to make some profit. There are some out there who trade big lots and are done early in different sessions. To make 50 pips consistently as you said, its important to know the bank levels and intent.
Trade Well all.
  • #117
  • Mar 19, 2023 3:54am Mar 19, 2023 3:54am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Peter Obviously I do have that real skill of not caring about being ignored on silly sites like Forex Factory, because you have me on the ignored list. Along with Aussi, Tooslow, B.Mir, Norling, Miksiu, mixedbag, GEfx, tiborf71, joyny, mallee, moodybot, jmn5611, ryuryu, bfx17, viktor, rtopa43 Can I say if you decide to voice BIG opinions here, you should also be able to take criticism of those words. Please try to consider other people's opinions without being such an old dismissive old bugger.
You might think that I'm hypocritical re: this and the ignored. To be honest, initially it was a field test to see how I would react or respond to it all, then after awhile I just forgot about them. So now, I have let them loose. No ignored list. So thank you for reminding me.

Something else you said troubles me here with you people .... your definition of what an opinion actually holds. And when does an opinion become something more substantial? Now you might think I'm just some old bugger with loud opinions. I wish it was that simple. The things I speak about are not from a book or website. They are something I have come to learn and KNOW are part of Life because I have lived. If you people cannot understand the concept of overlaps in learning, then what is the point in trying to trade? Or even try to learn? Most of what goes on at these sites is collective conversation, that is not learning. That is the first step to group think. Seeking approval from others about something you're supposed to be trying to get better at/with on your own.

So I'm not just trying to push my weight around, trying to tell people what to do. That would be a complete waste of time. I try not to have just 'an opinion' as that is the same trap most people fall into. Capiche ??

So what you call opinions are so much more than that. People fail to see what's there ......


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fpls-13-1044637-g001.jpg Size: 106 KB



This is from something else but the pic graph can display what I am saying here. Most people stand under something and aim to look up at it. Either in interest, awe or surprise and perhaps shock. But if these diminish, they then seek to gain control of the information OF that object position. This is how you form an opinion. If it remains unchecked or unchallenged, it becomes a safety net "belief". Sometimes a person is not satisfied with just an opinion, so they seek form in information ... the fact. While the other form that remains requires an additional standpoint ...... to stand over something ..... the overstanding perspective. What some call 'bird's eye view' of something / someone or a situation. If a person holds "too true" to one of these for too long, they are called stubborn. A situation requires ALL 3 to really try and see what's there within the situation. This is not my opinion or just a bunch of facts thrown together, it has been well understood for a very long time. Most people just prefer to wait til the "tony robbins"'s of the world or whoever, come out with the 'next revelation' in personal development and pay through the nose for their product etc. But the knowledge has always been there if you want to learn and get better. As you can see from the pic, the thick black line represents the balance point, while the upper and lower represent the other forces at work - understanding and overstanding.

So while I'm not perfect, I strive to improve and not get bogged down in personal opinions or mere facts if I can.

I know that's more than you expect but there you go.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #118
  • Mar 19, 2023 5:40am Mar 19, 2023 5:40am
Nick Leeson

I think his actions pretty well sum up what's good about TA and why its bad now.

Nick Leeson was of course the Futures trader working for Barings bank in Singapore in 1995 who after getting into some serious losses, when all out going long on the Japanese nikkei future contracts over a few weeks period. About an hour before close every day, he would start BUYING heavily on the nikkei and it soon created a pattern which was seen by many famous Future & world stock traders. In fact if you read some of the Market Wizards book by Jack D Schwager, you will see a few of these top traders mention this pattern and how much money they were making at the time. There was even a reference I read recently from a trading house in London where every prop trader in that firm waited for his Buying 1 hour before Close and then every man, woman, dog, started to SELL SELL SELL the nikkei as this pattern became regular like clockwork.

Easy Money, TA is fuckin fantastic.
One man with a large wallet can create TA that is tradable.

So Barings Bank lost around a Billion dollars and every other trader in the world that saw this TA pattern had their best trading year they had ever had.

Now for the bad.

TA patterns started to struggle in early 2000's because of high frequency Algo's. The reason is whenever a large trader put their orders up in the order books, they would be front run by these HFT algo's - so they changed

And TA became DEAD

So instead of placing these 1000 lot trades, they changed to chopping them up into smaller orders and in so hiding their actions from HFT's.
So as the human real life aspect of trading disappeared, so did reliable TA trading disappear as well.

Peter Caleb is therefore correct that trading is about real life, TA is about real life or lack of it.

TA that provided high profits died 15 years ago RIP
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #119
  • Mar 19, 2023 6:38am Mar 19, 2023 6:38am
Quoting RickM
Nick Leeson I think his actions pretty well sum up what's good about TA and why its bad now. Nick Leeson was of course the Futures trader working for Barings bank in Singapore in 1995 who after getting into some serious losses, when all out going long on the Japanese nikkei future contracts over a few weeks period. About an hour before close every day, he would start BUYING heavily on the nikkei and it soon created a pattern which was seen by many famous Future & world stock traders. In fact if you read some of the Market Wizards book by Jack D...
Is that the movie called "Rogue trader"?
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #120
  • Mar 19, 2023 7:43am Mar 19, 2023 7:43am
Quoting RickM
Nick Leeson I think his actions pretty well sum up what's good about TA and why its bad now. Nick Leeson was of course the Futures trader working for Barings bank in Singapore in 1995 who after getting into some serious losses, when all out going long on the Japanese nikkei future contracts over a few weeks period. About an hour before close every day, he would start BUYING heavily on the nikkei and it soon created a pattern which was seen by many famous Future & world stock traders. In fact if you read some of the Market Wizards book by Jack D...
It was the Kobe earthquake that did him eh?
A classic case of trying to martingale a black swan event. You could argue he showed tremendous lack of real life awareness, but I guess that's easy in hindsight, we may all have done the same thing. That's the peculiar thing about the financial world, people are allowed to play with money that isn't theirs. There's tremendous upside potential in terms of bonuses and fame...but the downside is limited...it's not THEIR billions they are losing . Ok, they might do a few years in jail, but I guess that's why Ponzi schemes will always reappear.
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