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Trend Following Experiment - EURUSD

  • #21
  • May 9, 2007 8:19am May 9, 2007 8:19am
Quoting iPlayGames
1st EUR position stopped out @ 1.3571, p/l ($18.5)
2nd EUR position stopped out @ 1.357, p/l ($14.0)

alarm set @ 1.3521;
Quote
price reached trendline, buy market @ 1.3568;

50% line @ 1.3543, buylimit set @ 1.3543;

50% line @ 1.3500, buylimit set @ 1.3500;


Quote
3rd EUR position stopped out @ 1.3518 ($25);

alarm set @ 1.3468;

price has dropped more than 50 pips below the SL of the 1st and 2nd EUR positions;

buystop @ 1.3571, 10 micros lots, 50 points SL;

Hi iPlayGames


Man, you have GOTTA CUT DOWN ON YOUR COFFEE INTAKE !!!


1. There was ONE trade...you bought in at 3608.
At that point your trailing stop loss was 3558 (3608- 0050 =3558).
2. Now, as the price increased, your trailing Stop Loss was dragged up.
3. When the price peaked at 3620, your trailing Stop Loss moved to 3570 (3620-0050 = 3570). And that is where it stays !

4. Unfortunately, your Stop Loss was hit (at 3570).....bummer !!

5. The market then continued down to the next point of interest which is 50 pips past the Stop Loss... which is 3520.
6. At this point a StopBuy order is placed at 3570
7. now we wait for market to resume upward movement (this may take a week or two).

.
  • #22
  • Edited 9:00am May 9, 2007 8:31am | Edited 9:00am
Quoting iPlayGames
hello MizZu X7, nice to meet you too. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

thanks for your analysis, you seem very systematic and thorough.

to me, both the weekly trend and daily trend are still up, I took a position already and got stopped out, this showed that my position was wrong, more corrections are probably on the way.

price dropped more than 50 points from where I was out, so I'm waiting to get back in on the trend when it comes back to that level.

I'm also monitoring round numbers and 50% fib lines on both daily and weekly charts, if price ever drops near them, I'll consider more trades. though I'm not sure how I should approach these special levels. shall I place buylimit orders right at them well in advance? or I should wait for them to be violated and then place buystop orders a few pips above them? I'm really inexperienced in this kind of trade.

there are also trend lines to be looking out for. I've even less experience trading with these lines. I don't know how to approach them correctly. or is there any correct way at all? maybe I should just buy whenever price approaches one. if I'm stopped out, then I'm wrong, no big deal, I'll get back in with Jacko's anti-hedging. I've began to see the importance of money management now. obviously you need a lot of money to use this anti-hedging method. I hope I didn't misunderstand it and abuse it...
Hi iPlayGames

to me, both the weekly trend and daily trend are still up, I took a position already and got stopped out, this showed that my position was wrong, Yes, but 4 hrly trend line has been pierced, (which is why I said that I was standing apart from the market).

more corrections are probably on the way. Possibly, the but they will be relatively short term ...2-3 weeks maximum.


price dropped more than 50 points from where I was out, so I'm waiting to get back in on the trend when it comes back to that level Yes, this is the A-H stategy

I'm also monitoring round numbers and 50% fib lines on both daily and weekly charts, if price ever drops near them, I'll consider more trades. NOOOO !!! Take a break...until your trade either get back in profit OR you determine that the primary trend (Daily) has changed to a bear market.


obviously you need a lot of money to use this anti-hedging method. NOOO!!


I hope I didn't misunderstand it... YES you did misunderstand it...LOL


.
  • #23
  • May 9, 2007 9:00am May 9, 2007 9:00am
i'm sorry but the system yet powerfull and simple but the analysis is very deep..ehem..the trend following system is very intersting, i'll try and watch for the thread..
iPlayGames, Jacko, please continue at the very best, i'm learning the market, and am allways learning
-1128 Pips since 6 August 2007
  • #24
  • May 9, 2007 9:11am May 9, 2007 9:11am
I am new to forex and am in no position to give advice yet. After losing a little money (thats relative) I am focusing on learning and observation. I too have been following Jacko, learning and observing not committing money, and it is great that he is providing advice here in your thread. I am following your thread with great interest in learning from your experience using this method.

Jacko has used the term discretion in his threads, and I enjoyed his "coffee" comment in this thread because I was thinking the same thing.

Just a thought, if you look at the daily chart I have posted, wouldn't a 20 pip break or better of this "seemingly" short term daily trend signal a good entry? Jacko has mentioned it may take a couple of weeks, and even you have suggested a retracement. Perhaps taking a step back and looking for a good indication that the trend is back on track would be better. Based upon my reading Jacko's post and others, the odds are in favor of the longer term trend, but they all acknowledge trends do change.
Attached Image
Redefining Reality
  • #25
  • May 9, 2007 9:15pm May 9, 2007 9:15pm
trendline breached, 4hr bearish, buylimits cancelled, no more buying until 4hr trend reverses.
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  • #26
  • May 9, 2007 9:30pm May 9, 2007 9:30pm
Quoting jacko
Hi iPlayGames

Man, you have GOTTA CUT DOWN ON YOUR COFFEE INTAKE !!!

.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif dear Sir, your joke is wasted on me, I don't drink coffee at all, http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif but I agree with you on everything else. I've been overdosing myself with trading, out of the fear that if I don't do sth, the market will make 1000 pips without me...

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif I'm getting a hold of myself now, cancelling all my limit orders, waiting patiently for 4hr trend to reverse...

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif thank you again for pointing out my errors! I know people who does that for a lot of money. but you are doing it for free. I can't express how grateful I am.
  • #27
  • May 9, 2007 9:42pm May 9, 2007 9:42pm
Quoting piptechnician
I am following your thread with great interest in learning from your experience using this method...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif you are welcome!

Quote
Jacko has used the term discretion in his threads, and I enjoyed his "coffee" comment in this thread because I was thinking the same thing...

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif ahh! having fun at my expense?!

Quote
Just a thought, if you look at the daily chart I have posted, wouldn't a 20 pip break or better of this "seemingly" short term daily trend signal a good entry?.

I don't know, I'm not familiar with your way of analyzing a chart. I still haven't got the hang of trendlines, I've been experimenting but no matter how I define the rules, it all seems inconsistent to me. I don't have an opinion on your view at the moment.
  • #28
  • May 9, 2007 10:02pm May 9, 2007 10:02pm
Thanks to iPlay for starting this thread.

And....thanks to Jacko for posting his thoughts.

iPlay.....I'm like you.....tend to over-analyze......and then get stuck with the "paralysis of analysis"!

Quite refreshing to hear Jacko's comments on your actions (which would probably parallel my own!)

It is amazing how we hear something......it makes perfect sense......and yet we somehow mess up in the implementation process. Hearing Jacko say it over again, but apply it to a live example, really moves some of the trees out my view of the Forex-Forest.

Brunite
  • #29
  • Edited 11:28pm May 9, 2007 11:07pm | Edited 11:28pm
Quoting iPlayGames
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif dear Sir, your joke is wasted on me, I don't drink coffee at all, http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif but I agree with you on everything else. I've been overdosing myself with trading, out of the fear that if I don't do sth, the market will make 1000 pips without me...

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif I'm getting a hold of myself now, cancelling all my limit orders, waiting patiently for 4hr trend to reverse...

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif thank you again for pointing out my errors! I know people who does that for a lot of money. but you are doing it for free. I can't express how grateful I am.
Dude,
one of the best things that Jacko taught me when I met him was to slow down and stop the hyperovertrading, so go back and look at what he said earlier

Quote
Market is showing weakness...retracement is very near (I think)...standing aside from market...waiting for a better (lower) "buy" entry point.

For super aggressive traders, a "short" position looks a viable option. (I just dont do that type of trade!!!).

He is unbelievably patient, he doesnt think in 5 minute time frames he doesnt live on the computer like is still do then when he is comfortable with everything, he hits the market in a big way, he doesnt trade every day and he spends a lot of his time having a life doing ordinary things like shopping and eating out, becos he said that the market will still be there tomorrow and that it will be there long after he is dead and that he doesnt want to loose money by making too many dodgy trades.
Btw, if you read the post above, it was posted when the Euro was at 3650 so if you took the trade, which I did, you would be 100+ pips profitable I am still more aggressive than him in my trading but I am slowing down more and more the more I talk with him becos I want to make this my lifetime career and make as much money as him.
  • #30
  • May 10, 2007 5:43am May 10, 2007 5:43am
Quoting newbietrader101
Dude,
one of the best things that Jacko taught me when I met him was to slow down and stop the hyperovertrading, so go back and look at what he said earlier
thank you, newbietrader101, I'm taking Jacko's advice and prepared to lower my coffee intake, effective immediately http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Quote
He is unbelievably patient, he doesnt think in 5 minute time frames he doesnt live on the computer like is still do then when he is comfortable with everything, he hits the market in a big way, he doesnt trade every day and he spends a lot of his time having a life doing ordinary things like shopping and eating out, becos he said that the market will still be there tomorrow and that it will be there long after he is dead and that he doesnt want to loose money by making too many dodgy trades.

Jacko has obviously given us the hope that we can be successful traders while still have a life http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

Quote
Btw, if you read the post above, it was posted when the Euro was at 3650 so if you took the trade, which I did, you would be 100+ pips profitable I am still more aggressive than him in my trading but I am slowing down more and more the more I talk with him becos I want to make this my lifetime career and make as much money as him.

I came across a reference to Jacko's thread purely by accident. less than a week ago I was still doing my usual searching-for-holy-grail business in the trading systems section, when I clicked on a link that led me to his thread. and after that I'm a different person. for the 1st time in my life, I'm having faith in a method. and I'm actually using it in real trading before I even fully understood it http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif (and got burnt because of it...). so, for the time being, I'm sticking to Jacko's trading method. I must learn how to follow a trend before I can even think about going against it. I've lost quite a lot of money to the market, I must be very cautious now if I want to make trading a lifetime career.
  • #31
  • Edited 7:35am May 10, 2007 6:29am | Edited 7:35am
edited due to redundancy
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #32
  • May 11, 2007 12:18am May 11, 2007 12:18am
...less than a week ago I was still doing my usual searching-for-holy-grail business in the trading systems section...

Very, very amusing and reflective of our trading psyche. I have read it time ago and still I am laughing at it.

Very amusing....

Thanks for your posts.
  • #33
  • May 11, 2007 1:39am May 11, 2007 1:39am
Quoting iPlayGames

Jacko has obviously given us the hope that we can be successful traders while still have a life http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
... and an account. That's the beauty of the stop loss.

Quote

I'm having faith in a method.
Same here. Because of it's simplicity.

Most of the supposed holi grail strategies shows you charts to prove the right entry YOU SHOULD HAVE MADE by that time. So you expect similar formation to repeat in the future.

But those strategies fails to show IN THE SAME VERY CHART the amount of times you would be lead into a bad trade. With exactly the same indicators and signals and stochastics, whatever.

And don't you feel frustrated about your losses. I had mine and several brilliant minds in the forum, too, as I noticed. Even more, yesterday's market reaction was described as "shocking" on several markets commentaries that I receive. So yes, we were (like Jacko says) wwwwwrooooonnngggg.... But being wrong yesterday didn't make any one of us special.
  • #34
  • May 11, 2007 3:53am May 11, 2007 3:53am
Quoting iPlayGames
ok, this is a bit embarrssing, but I've realised that I'm probably over-analyzing, so I'm changing my strategy now.

I had another look at the charts, and what do I see? both weekly and daily trends are up according to my rules, and MAs have crossed to the upside on 4hr chart, so what am I waiting for?

buy market @ 1.3608, 50 points SL;

I don't care which way market is going to go now, if I'm stopped out, I'll use anti-hedging to get back in, as long as the trend is still up.

let's see what happens with this trade.
Seems to me you need a stoploss of 500 pips instead of 50.



But you can always get back in at 1.3608 - 50.

:

Good luck.
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  • #35
  • May 11, 2007 4:21am May 11, 2007 4:21am
Quoting cesarnc

And don't you feel frustrated about your losses. I had mine and several brilliant minds in the forum, too, as I noticed. Even more, yesterday's market reaction was described as "shocking" on several markets commentaries that I receive. So yes, we were (like Jacko says) wwwwwrooooonnngggg.... But being wrong yesterday didn't make any one of us special.

hello Cesarnc! thank you for your encouragement. I found out today that Jacko was wrong. EURUSD is not the most trendy commodity in this world. Patience is. it's at such short supply it has got be trending up all the time. I think Jacko must have a lot of it. he has probably been hoarding it since who knows when? he is so slyyyyyy...
  • #36
  • May 11, 2007 4:27am May 11, 2007 4:27am
4hr trend is obviously down. don't know how low it goes, don't know when it comes back...

really want to find some quick action in lower timeframes, really must get a hold of myself, really need to be patient...
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  • #37
  • May 11, 2007 4:45am May 11, 2007 4:45am
Quoting iPlayGames
4hr trend is obviously down. don't know how low it goes, don't know when it comes back...

really want to find some quick action in lower timeframes, really must get a hold of myself, really need to be patient...
so get out of the computer.

Get back at USD news and read the results, figures + price action. This is going to be key driver for the next days.

Retail coming bad but PPI coming high, may trigger further carry trade selloff on risk aversion. That would provide good dips in EUR/USD.

Now, if Euro soars, check behavior at 3500 area and consider jumping on Monday only.

Today is likely another tricky day for going after small pips.
  • #38
  • May 11, 2007 4:50am May 11, 2007 4:50am
wow, look at this, a breakout is on the verge, and I suspect it's downward. but I'm not trading this timeframe anymore. though I should, because everytime I'm not trading, the market goes the way I predicted. but as soon as I enter a trade, it goes the other way...
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  • #39
  • May 11, 2007 11:57am May 11, 2007 11:57am
I found your thread will reading jackos thread. I am going to follow this thread and jackos why i study on this method of trading, What a concept have a life out side of staring at the computer night qnd day Good luck GB
  • #40
  • May 11, 2007 2:44pm May 11, 2007 2:44pm
Long 6100 units of EUR/USD at 1.3500, S/L -40pip.
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