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PA Trading with EMAs and common Sense

Quoting TheHusla
{quote} What sorcery is this? What was that entry based off?
shame you missed that double top, it was a nice one...

i also thought the same when i came across this method, it looked to good to be true until i started doing it myself!

WARNING - it is EXTREMELY risky if you start to cost average - large drawdowns for sustained periods are inevitable

the entry is purely subjective simply based on an over extension from ema9, looking for some PA to enter countertrend, mainly wicks, then cost averaging until it reverses, using return to ema's and PA for targets

the bits in yellow are visually obvious entry points for countertrend - the question mark is not, it is still very close to the ema's, an entry here would be based on other factors like previous resistance


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Hi there,
new Day new Luck!
Solled EJ H4 2 Legged PuB to Res Area and Bounce from 20MA
s. Chart

atb vvm
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PA Trading with EMAs & common Sense
Quoting vvm
Hi there, new Day new Luck! Solled EJ H4 2 Legged PuB to Res Area and Bounce from 20MA s. Chart atb vvm {image}
looks like it will be for this one, good old support now acting as resistance, nicely executed...

but i will suggest you target just above 140 big round number to be safe, or start scale out from there, good luck!
EU D1 Bought

s. Chart
atb vvm
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PA Trading with EMAs & common Sense
Quoting vvm
EU D1 Bought s. Chart atb vvm {image}
hey vvm, this one is 50\50 when i look at it technically, and also when i think about it fundamentally due to being a daily timeframe

technically, the downtrend started by the even bigger inside bar circled on the left and made a strong move down, then bounced off support three times as you highlighted,

however, the third retracement down was strong and sharp threatening to breach ema100, and the inside bar you entered on was a relatively small one

the target was rejected sharply last time it was reached so may have trouble finding its way there again - this one should be managed carefully if it continues moving sideways

fundamentally, its very difficult to tell with the trouble brewing in the financial sector at the moment and i am in no position to comment on this, but you should research that further to understand where this trade is heading to achieve an optimal result, best of luck!

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feel free to elaborate on why this is the first time you have used a limit order - i have NEVER used them and never will, for me, its hard enough predicting a winning trade let alone trying to predict EXACTLY what price is going to do!
Hi niks thank you for your professional feedback
Unfortunately I have no idea about fundamentals and technical things
I try to trade the bars.
In this specific case, I'm trading the one Bar Range from low of the Bar 3 to its high....
After Al Brooks,
the Probability of this Setup is > than 60%
but in my Fall comes 100MA as second Support.
s. Chart
I think it can be a 2 legged UpMove to ToR
I moved SL to +10, Money is in the Pocket

have a nice weekend
atb vvm
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PA Trading with EMAs & common Sense
Quoting vvm
Hi niks thank you for your professional feedback Unfortunately I have no idea about fundamentals and technical things I try to trade the bars. In this specific case, I'm trading the one Bar Range from low of the Bar 3 to its high.... After Al Brooks, the Probability of this Setup is bigger than 60% but in my Fall comes 100MA as second Support. s. Chart I think it can be a 2 legged UpMove to ToR I moved SL to +10, Money is in the Pocket have a nice weekend atb vvm{image}
always a pleasure vvm, you do have plenty of ideas for technical things, that's what price action is all about!

i've had mixed results trading the one bar range, it is a tricky one, and ye, the probabilities aren't the highest for a fixed setup like this, but the idea is reasonable and the price action supports it...

hopefully it pops a lot higher monday morning, then you can lock some more in!

fundamental things is just reading up on the latest news from this website for example, maybe some high impact news can cause a dramatic shift, glad to see you have protected this one though so you can relax for the weekend!
Quoting niks
{quote} shame you missed that double top, it was a nice one... i also thought the same when i came across this method, it looked to good to be true until i started doing it myself! WARNING - it is EXTREMELY risky if you start to cost average - large drawdowns for sustained periods are inevitable the entry is purely subjective simply based on an over extension from ema9, looking for some PA to enter countertrend, mainly wicks, then cost averaging until it reverses, using return to ema's and PA for targets the bits in yellow are visually obvious entry...
So you entered this one because it was overextended to the downside and you saw a wick on M1? This one seems highly risky to me personally. Did you have a zone that it reached on higher timeframes? I get you were trading the pullback here.
Quoting vvm
Hi there, new Day new Luck! Solled EJ H4 2 Legged PuB to Res Area and Bounce from 20MA s. Chart atb vvm {image}
Nice man! This one wasn't a trade for me. I don't like these HUGE very fast moves too much. I can see you have good success with them but for me I always enter and it reverses. I was looking to scalp this but it all just went too fast.
Quoting vvm
EU D1 Bought s. Chart atb vvm {image}
This I REALLY like, but didn't see it. VERY nice trade man! Hope it works for you. Based on this I know what I am looking for on Monday!

Put the EMA 200 on your chart. Change the visibility to D1 only. Rejections of the EMA200 on D1 are HIGHLY effective in strong trends.
Been a little distracted this week but hopefully next week back to full focus. Nice trades guys.
I hope I haven't written this quote yet


Al Brooks
Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar
The Technical Analysis of Price Action for the Serious Trader

Quote
Introduction
Many traders consider price action only when trading divergences and trend pullbacks. In fact, most traders using indicators won't take a trade unless there is a strong signal bar, and many would enter on a strong signal bar if the context was right, even if there was no divergence. They like to see a strong close on a large reversal bar, but in reality this is a fairly rare occurrence. The most useful tools for understanding price action are trend lines and trend channel lines, prior highs and lows, breakouts and failed breakouts,...

atb vvm
PA Trading with EMAs & common Sense
the second Part of this Quote:

Al Brooks:
Quote
and failed breakouts, the sizes of bodies and tails on candles, and relationships between the current bar to the prior several bars. In particular, how the open, high, low, and close of the current bar compare to the action of the prior several bars tells a lot about what will happen next. Charts provide far more information about who is in control of the market than most traders realize. Almost every bar offers important clues as to where the market is going, and a trader who dismisses any activity as noise is passing up many profitable...
PA Trading with EMAs & common Sense
the third Part of this Quote:
Al Brooks:
Quote
trades each day. Most of the observations in these books are directly related to placing trades, but a few have to do with simple curious price action tendencies without sufficient dependability to be the basis for a trade.
atb vvm
PA Trading with EMAs & common Sense
Quoting TheHusla
{quote} This I REALLY like, but didn't see it. VERY nice trade man! Hope it works for you. Based on this I know what I am looking for on Monday! Put the EMA 200 on your chart. Change the visibility to D1 only. Rejections of the EMA200 on D1 are HIGHLY effective in strong trends.
Many Thanks Mate,
I did it
have a nice Weekend

atb vvm
PA Trading with EMAs & common Sense
Quoting TheHusla
{quote} So you entered this one because it was overextended to the downside and you saw a wick on M1? This one seems highly risky to me personally. Did you have a zone that it reached on higher timeframes? I get you were trading the pullback here.
yes, overextended plus wick! and yes, extremely risky, that's why i added the WARNING!

the risk is only mitigated by cost averaging, when you do these enough times it gets a lot easier to manage, no other factor plays into these trades other than projection of direction and action to take when it does or does not head in that direction, they are traded with VERY strict money management rules

a couple of quick examples

EURUSD 1M

lets say you enter on the first circle, it is overextended and you saw a wick right! that doesn't go well, so you enter a second order because you saw another wick! but then it keeps going against you and this time you get a clearer signal so you enter a third order, now things are looking good and you start focusing on your target and enjoy your profits!

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AUDUSD 1M

on the other hand, because seeing a wick during an overextension works so well, we try it again at the first circle for example, and like the first trade, we're sure its going to reverse so we enter another two orders, this time however, things are different, we are in drawdown and our break even point appears out of reach, now we're in a short term drawdown that needs to be managed very aggressively to get out of it with the best outcome before we let it run into a deep long term drawdown, THATS THE RISK that needs to be dealt with...

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of course "seeing a wick" can manifest itself in many ways including entering a zone or PA signal
Quoting niks
{quote} yes, overextended plus wick! and yes, extremely risky, that's why i added the WARNING! the risk is only mitigated by cost averaging, when you do these enough times it gets a lot easier to manage, no other factor plays into these trades other than projection of direction and action to take when it does or does not head in that direction, they are traded with VERY strict money management rules a couple of quick examples EURUSD 1M lets say you enter on the first circle, it is overextended and you saw a wick right! that doesn't go well, so you...
I see what you mean. You cut your losses quick and let winners run. Also over time will develop a better intuition. I see you like to trade reversals, I would recommend you also look at continuations. So take all your losses in a week and think "What if I had entered the opp direction". Would it have resulted in better performance? Then just do the analysis and change your view accordingly. Just stay fluid. If it resulted it better performance then good and if not then no harm done.
Hi there,

I am placing 10 charts here
with possible H1 setups for yesterday, Friday, March 17th

That's just my point of view

atb vvm
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PA Trading with EMAs & common Sense
Quoting TheHusla
{quote} I see what you mean. You cut your losses quick and let winners run. Also over time will develop a better intuition. I see you like to trade reversals, I would recommend you also look at continuations. So take all your losses in a week and think "What if I had entered the opp direction". Would it have resulted in better performance? Then just do the analysis and change your view accordingly. Just stay fluid. If it resulted it better performance then good and if not then no harm done.
cost averaging is used with the aim of always breaking even or better, cutting losses quick is not the approach, instead, giving the trade every possible chance to produce a profit is where the risk and money management skills lie - every trade is geared towards the earliest possible exit to minimise risk

most certainly gets easier over time, and there are effective methods for dealing with a drawdown to end it in a small loss, breakeven or small profit, even after a 100+ pip move against my original position!

i have been considering trend continuations more recently and am starting to take those trades as well, i just don't ride them, instead i will exit and re-enter if possible

i used that thought process during my ea development - what if i just did the opposite? didn't work out too well for me!

thanks for the feedback, i'll continue to remain fluid and see where that leads...
Quoting vvm
Hi there, I am placing 10 charts here with possible H1 setups for yesterday, Friday, March 17th That's just my point of view atb vvm {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
and you say you are not technical?! looks like technical analysis to me vvm! they look like good setups, i'll look at them in more detail...
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