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  • #18,621
  • Mar 16, 2023 2:22pm Mar 16, 2023 2:22pm
QQQ 309/310 3/20 backspread calls, in for 12c, worth 60c same day, a run Friday to $310 will get me to $1.50+
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,622
  • Mar 16, 2023 11:38pm Mar 16, 2023 11:38pm
spitballing FOMC week spreads
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,623
  • Mar 17, 2023 2:14am Mar 17, 2023 2:14am
Quoting The Fool
something like Mar24/27 NDX 13,300 calls.....will wait a bit to see if those can be had for a lot less, will shop for put spreads also {image}
what platform are you using for options trading?
  • #18,624
  • Mar 17, 2023 7:25am Mar 17, 2023 7:25am
Quoting catch22
{quote} what platform are you using for options trading?
ThinkorSwim, from TD Ameritrade
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,625
  • Mar 17, 2023 7:28am Mar 17, 2023 7:28am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ThinkorSwim, from TD Ameritrade
I love ToS.... Best risk graph software in the business.
  • #18,626
  • Mar 17, 2023 7:31am Mar 17, 2023 7:31am
Quoting The Fool
I can almost taste that 4,000 pin Friday.
Not so fast fool. Contagion fear is back. Impossible to escape in the 24/7 news, internet, tweet digital swamp.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,627
  • Mar 17, 2023 8:16am Mar 17, 2023 8:16am
it's been a fuckin meat grinder man
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,628
  • Mar 17, 2023 8:27am Mar 17, 2023 8:27am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Not so fast fool. Contagion fear is back. Impossible to escape in the 24/7 news, internet, tweet digital swamp.
....or do they ("they") bring on a couple hrs of non-stop reporting about US bank failures in the 2-3 hrs before the Friday open to spook a pullback so "they" can get a better entry for a run to 4,000?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,629
  • Mar 17, 2023 8:34am Mar 17, 2023 8:34am
seriously do you really think we get this close to 4,000 on witch day without touching it?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,630
  • Mar 17, 2023 8:49am Mar 17, 2023 8:49am
Quoting The Fool
seriously do you really think we get this close to 4,000 on witch day without touching it? {image}
thats because it's too obvious to be long. Market always shakes out weak hands first. News are irrelevant, everybody knows that central banks will simply backstop any contagion risk anyway. Market will go long but in an "option price decaying" fashion
  • #18,631
  • Mar 17, 2023 3:04pm Mar 17, 2023 3:04pm
Quoting The Fool
seriously do you really think we get this close to 4,000 on witch day without touching it?
...never made it. I closed a lot of trades that had been in good profit on Thurs for sad loss Friday. I took a lot off Thursday at max gain, so I escaped the week with a healthy plus, but, for the whipsaw drama, this was one of the worst weeks I can remember. I would rather be a senile Greeter at Walmart for minimum wage.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,632
  • Mar 17, 2023 3:34pm Mar 17, 2023 3:34pm
Even when you end up making a reasonable profit for the week. If you lose a chunk at the end and have been sitting in huge drawdown it can feel like a loss due to the poor R/R. The indices were a roller coaster this week so I understand!
  • #18,633
  • Mar 17, 2023 4:30pm Mar 17, 2023 4:30pm
Quoting Steamroller
Even when you end up making a reasonable profit for the week. If you lose a chunk at the end and have been sitting in huge drawdown it can feel like a loss due to the poor R/R. The indices were a roller coaster this week so I understand!
I was up, down, way down, way up, then finally down. It's a daytrader's market, really, and I guess that's what options are being used for, more and more. It's tradeable, but you must be quick. Also, I can't daytrade anyway in the retirement accounts, which is mostly where I trade. So holding overnight, I'm exposed to the wild news swings. If you're in positions with long duration, you can float above some of the noise. The recurring lesson is: hey, you don't have to be a hero: if you see some good profit, take some of that off.

Anyway, this whipsaw action within a narrow range I bet will continue until we see that big capitulation move that never came. Maybe we need to take out that Oct '22 low. I could see it. There are sick grinding and breaking noises coming from the credit markets....

Have a good weekend, Steam. We live to trade again next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,634
  • Mar 18, 2023 4:01am Mar 18, 2023 4:01am
when iv's are high, diagonals are better than calendars - you can put on diagonals for a credit and then hedge the steep tail risk in further-out verticals. When these are structured and managed well, almost impossible to lose money

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,635
  • Edited 8:35am Mar 19, 2023 8:23am | Edited 8:35am
watching the headlines over the weekend, looks like they will try to get a UBS buyout of Cred Suisse done b4 markets open. Mybe similar workings for 1st Republic. Eyes on ust rates. We could be set up for a rally Monday, but with FOMC Wed, not sure how far it may get anyway.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,636
  • Mar 19, 2023 2:26pm Mar 19, 2023 2:26pm
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,637
  • Mar 19, 2023 5:06pm Mar 19, 2023 5:06pm
Quoting The Fool
Eyes on ust rates. We could be set up for a rally Monday, but with FOMC Wed, not sure how far it may get anyway.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/

I still think JPow stays on track with a 25 bps hike, should be seen with a bit of a hit on UST's, but, with US zombie bank news still steadily hitting the wires, prolly just more ping-pong.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,638
  • Mar 19, 2023 8:27pm Mar 19, 2023 8:27pm
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,639
  • Mar 20, 2023 1:40am Mar 20, 2023 1:40am
Fear Fear Fear Fear!
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,640
  • Mar 20, 2023 8:29am Mar 20, 2023 8:29am
Quoting The Fool
Fear Fear Fear Fear! {image}
Takes a pretty specific set of conditions to build a working wall of worry. But this would definitely fit the bill… the yield collapse is hitting the long end a bit too…
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