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The Swamp

  • #107,621
  • Mar 16, 2023 9:44am Mar 16, 2023 9:44am
Quoting gatorinla
Christine Lagarde press conference, ECB : I surmise "nothing to see here, go home, leave your doors unlocked."
"All is fine, ignore the elephant in the room and move on"
Price = the amount a greater fool is willing to pay!
  • #107,622
  • Mar 16, 2023 9:49am Mar 16, 2023 9:49am
Hmmmm. I wonder what happens if inflation causes the ECB to raise? So the banks make less profit. At the same time the housing on the banks balance sheet falls 10- 20% +. I'm just asking for a friend.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...operty-markets
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,623
  • Mar 16, 2023 9:55am Mar 16, 2023 9:55am
Quoting PipsMaster23
{quote} Could this area still be considered for a shorting opp.
I had some pending there. It could hit 1.066x too. But if it remains below 1.0624 today closed, and below 1.0885 Friday close. It has a good shot of testing support. Being above 1.0587 atm is the bull side of the week. Being below 1.0624 bear side of day. 1.066x is a more equal area. If it was to go to 1.0638. Yeah bulls want this. But its also a place bears may ambush.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,624
  • Mar 16, 2023 9:56am Mar 16, 2023 9:56am
BBL
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,625
  • Mar 16, 2023 2:52pm Mar 16, 2023 2:52pm
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  • #107,626
  • Mar 16, 2023 2:56pm Mar 16, 2023 2:56pm
COT report is catching up now.. last week Mar 7thCOT report, hedge funds continued to cut Eur longs and increased Eur shorts. 2nd week in a row. Tomorrow we will see Mar 14th report..
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  • #107,627
  • Mar 16, 2023 3:04pm Mar 16, 2023 3:04pm
Quoting Boulder
{image}
I was thinking 1.0638. But that 1.07 and 4 billion looks like a bullseye. I haven't seen many 4 billion. 1.0694 is on the radar/1.7
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,628
  • Mar 16, 2023 3:41pm Mar 16, 2023 3:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I was thinking 1.0638. But that 1.07 and 4 billion looks like a bullseye. I haven't seen many 4 billion. 1.0694 is on the radar/1.7
Day downtrend stop at 1.0738
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  • #107,629
  • Edited Mar 17, 2023 5:54am Mar 16, 2023 5:11pm | Edited Mar 17, 2023 5:54am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Day downtrend stop at 1.0738 {image}
The options at 1.07 sits there, I respect it. That's a large attraction. But if asked if it would not run much above 1.06020/37 ish. I can see that too. If next week is to point bearish. I think it will close below 1.0574/88. 74 better than 88. 1.0548 better, but even these is no guarantee the support breaks.

ATM pa sits below 1.0694. It closed a month below
1.0694. It closed today below 1.0624. It has not closed a week below 1.0688. It has closed the year below 1.0835.
Break the bottom to 1.0100, or run to 1.0805 is what I see.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,630
  • Mar 17, 2023 4:23am Mar 17, 2023 4:23am
FX option expiries for Mar 17 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
- EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  1. 1.0500 1.2b
  2. 1.0660 1.7b
  3. 1.0710 5.1b
  4. 1.0775 1.4b

  • #107,631
  • Mar 17, 2023 5:38am Mar 17, 2023 5:38am
1.0624 may support enough to get 1.0694/1.0710 for option close
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,632
  • Mar 17, 2023 5:45am Mar 17, 2023 5:45am
Quoting gatorinla
1.0624 may support enough to get 1.0694/1.0710 for option close
Close to 1.0624 now..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,633
  • Mar 17, 2023 5:52am Mar 17, 2023 5:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If next week is to point bearish. I think it will close below 1.0674/88. 74 better than 88. 1.0648 better, but even these is no guarantee the support breaks. ATM pa sits below 1.0694. It closed a month below 1.0694. It closed today below 1.0624. It has not closed a week below 1.0688. It has closed the year below 1.0835. Break the bottom to 1.0100, or run to 1.0805 is what I see.
These are wrong.. Correct should be a 1.0574/88. 74 better than 88. 1.0548. I will fix these.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,634
  • Mar 17, 2023 6:13am Mar 17, 2023 6:13am
For bulls, it needs to get back above 0638.. I think 0624 may hold. If not, 1.0610 may come. I longed
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  • #107,635
  • Mar 17, 2023 6:18am Mar 17, 2023 6:18am
I longed for the options pull. I need it to climb. 1.0638 to start. Where it went, in the zone, is where I planned to short.. That large option # changed my plan.
There was a short scalp near the first run. But it only got to 1.0635. Missing 1.0638 missed me.
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  • #107,636
  • Mar 17, 2023 6:48am Mar 17, 2023 6:48am
After seeing the 12h close above 1.0624 and 1.0638. I figured bulls had this to the option area. Now with 1.0624 failing, I'm less positive. 1.0609/10. lost wont be good. Bulls need to recover 1.0638+. 1.0624+ to start.

Why do i trade Friday's?
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  • #107,637
  • Mar 17, 2023 6:55am Mar 17, 2023 6:55am
If you have a dead father. This may pull some memories. If you have a son. Torture him with this. One day it will haunt him.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,638
  • Mar 17, 2023 6:56am Mar 17, 2023 6:56am
Quoting gatorinla
After seeing the 12h close above 1.0624 and 1.0638. I figured bulls had this to the option area. Now with 1.0624 failing, I'm less positive. 1.0609/10. lost wont be good. Bulls need to recover 1.0638+. 1.0624+ to start. Why do i trade Friday's? {image}
yep. I hear you. Long from 17 but not feeling the momentum…if we drop back down I’m calling it a day, the sun is shining
Never say never.
  • #107,639
  • Mar 17, 2023 7:06am Mar 17, 2023 7:06am
Quoting razldazl
{quote} yep. I hear you. Long from 17 but not feeling the momentum…if we drop back down I’m calling it a day, the sun is shining
If it can close 1h above 1.0666/70 R it may already have hit the option. The option is fighting the clock. It has a window of time..
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  • #107,640
  • Mar 17, 2023 7:28am Mar 17, 2023 7:28am
I was thinking options would hit before this number was released. After release, a drop to close the week below 1.0588. A little more than 1.5 hs to go.
If not options, I would had shorted.
I did leave shorts up there pending, in case.
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