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Bitcoin

CPI inflation data from the United States for February was released today at 12:30 pm GMT and came in-line with market expectations. Headline CPI decelerated from 6.4 to 6.0% YoY (exp. 6.0% YoY) while core gauge moved from 5.6 to 5.5% YoY (exp. 5.5% YoY). Reaction of the FX and equity markets was fairly muted - after initial volatile up and down swings, indices moved slightly higher and USD weakened. However, scale of the moves on USD and stock markets is relatively small. Much more action can be seen on the cryptocurrency market with Bitcoin testing $26,000 mark following the release.

Taking a look at BITCOIN chart at D1 interval, we can see that the cryptocurrency is trading higher for the third day in a row and, just as it was the case yesterday and on Sunday, the move is quite big. Bitcoin trades almost 9% higher on the day and makes a break above $26,000 mark for the first time in 9 months! Other cryptocurrencies are also trading higher with Ethereum adding 5% and Dogecoin trading over 4% higher.

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EURUSD

The EURUSD pair begins today with clear positivity to attack 1.0745 level and attempts to breach it, which hints heading to achieve new gains in the upcoming sessions, while it faces negative pressure by stochastic that might hinder the mission to rise.

Therefore, we prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level followed by detecting its next destination clearly, noting that the contradiction between the technical factors provides another reason for neutrality. Note that confirming breaching 1.0745 will push the price to achieve positive targets that start at 1.0800 and extend to 1.0925, while consolidating below it will press on the price to resume the bearish wave that targets 1.0620 followed by 1.0515 as next main stations.

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Oil

On Tuesday, the market could see a drop in risk aversion

The recent panic in the stock market, which was linked to the problems of the banking sector in the USA, has been halted

1. The main stock indices from the Old Continent ended the session sharply higher
2. The DAX gained 1.83%, while the French CAC40 added 1.86% and London's FTSE closed 1.17% higher. Poland's WIG20 ended the session slightly above the benchmark +0.11%
3. DE30 quotations reached key short-term resistance at 15280 points
4. Today's CPI inflation data from the US was in line with expectations and showed that prices rose by 0.4% in February after accelerating by 0.5% in January. In contrast, annualised CPI was 6.0% in February, the smallest annual price increase since September 2021. (previously 6.4%). The underlying CPI was also in line with expectations.
5. Wall Street's major stock indices traded higher. The Nasdaq is up 1.5% at the time of preparing this commentary with the S&P500 and Dow Jones adding 1.05% and 0.45% respectively.
6. Apple halts bonus payments, Meta Platforms announces job cuts
7. Tuesday saw massive declines in crude oil. OPEC raised its forecast for crude demand growth in CHINA, but left the forecast unchanged when it came to global demand, explaining this by concerns about global economic growth. OIL.WTI quotes are losing more than 5%, with OIL down 4.5% and falling below the $77 per barrel level.
8. In the forex market today, we are seeing an outflow into commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar. The Japanese yen is performing poorly. The EURUSD pair maintains bullish momentum and struggles to break out above the resistance level near 1.0750 on a sustained basis.
9. Tuesday brought a continuation of the increases in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin's quotations broke out with momentum above the USD 25,000 level, which is an important resistance in the medium term. Etherum's price, on the other hand, jumped above $1,750.
10. At 08:40 pm GMT, we will learn API data on oil stocks, and at 09:20 pm GMT, Bowman from the Fed will speak

OIL.WTI quotes have overcome an internal trendline, which could herald an attack on the December minimum at $70 per barrel.

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GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair continues to fluctuate within sideways and tight track since yesterday, noticing that stochastic gets rid of its negative momentum to approach the oversold areas, waiting to motive the price to resume the bullish trend that its next targets located at 1.2260 followed by 1.2440.

The EMA50 continues to support the suggested bullish wave, which will remain valid unless breaking 1.2070 and holding below it.

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USDJPY

The USDJPY pair settles around 134.00 level since yesterday, affected by stochastic negativity that slows the intraday bullish wave, waiting to resume the rise and achieve our positive targets that start at 135.40 and extend to 137.70 after surpassing the previous level.

Therefore, we will keep our bullish overview conditioned by the price stability above 133.30, as breaking it will put the price under the negative pressure again, to head towards visiting 131.75 areas initially.

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EURUSD

A relief on the markets triggered by actions of US authorities over the weekend, aimed at containing risk from SVB collapse, turned out to be short-lived. US and European stock markets rallied yesterday but those moves are being reversed today. German DAX futures (DE30) are trading over 1% lower at press time while S&P 500 futures (US500) drop 0.6%. DE30 bears attempt to break below 15,000 pts mark at press time. A move lower on equity markets is accompanied by strengthening of USD which pressures EURUSD and GOLD.

While there is no clear reason behind the drop, it looks like markets remain nervous due to the situation in the banking sector. However, attention may be turning to the European banking sector. Shares of Credit Suisse are trading 10% lower today and hit a fresh record low. Credit Suisse top shareholder ruled out any further financial assistance to the European bank, which has been plagued by issues over recent years.

EURUSD plunged and tested a key near-term support zone in the 1.0675 area, marked with previous local low, 100-period moving average (H1 interval) as well as the lower limit of market geometry. A break below would, at least in theory, hint a bearish trend reversal.

DE30 has once again failed to break above the 15,244-15,285 pts resistance zone and launched a pull back. The index is attempting to make a break below psychological 15,000 pts at press time.

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AUDUSD

AUDUSD broke above the 0.6630 resistance zone following a solid jobs report from Australia. The pair is now testing the 200-hour moving average (purple line).

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EURUSD

EURUSD pair’s strong decline stopped at 1.0515 yesterday, which formed solid support against the price, to rebound bullishly and start building bullish wave on the intraday basis, motivated by stochastic positivity.

Therefore, we expect to witness more bullish bias in the upcoming sessions, and the targets begin at 1.0640 and extend to 1.0745 after surpassing the previous level. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1.0515 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to suffer additional losses that reach 1.0440.

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GBPUSD

GBPUSD pair attempted to break the minor support 1.2060 but it consolidates above it, to keep the chances valid to resume the bullish trend on the intraday basis, waiting to visit 1.2260 as a next main target.

Stochastic provides clear positive signals now to support the expectations to rise in the upcoming sessions, and breaching 1.2145 will ease the mission of achieving the waited positive targets. We remind you that breaking 1.2060 will push the price to decline to test the most important support at 1.1940 before any new positive attempt.

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USDJPY

The USDJPY pair faced clear negative pressure to break 133.30 and settles below it by today’s open, to head towards expected turn to decline, on its way to achieve negative targets that start at 131.60 and extend to 130.50.

The EMA50 forms negative pressure against the price to support the continuation of the expected bearish trend, while stochastic positivity might cause some sideways fluctuation before resuming the decline. Note that breaching 133.30 and holding above it will reactivate the positive scenario and push the price towards 135.40 initially.

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EURUSD

Media reports surfaced saying that ECB officials told at a meeting with European ministers yesterday that some of European banks could be vulnerable amid SVB-Credit Suisse turmoil. Headlines triggered a slump on EUR market as well as European stock market indices. EURUSD dipped back below 1.06 mark while DE30 attempts to take out daily lows near 14,750 pts.

EURUSD dipped below 1.06 on media reports that ECB sees some European banks as vulnerable.

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USDJPY

1. US indices finished yesterday's session higher as a rescue package for First Republic Bank eased market concerns about another bank failure in the US. S&P 500 rose 1.76%, Dow Jones added 1.17% and Russell 2000 jumped 1.38%. Nasdaq outperformed and managed to finish 2.48% higher
2. Indices from Asia-Pacific traded higher today - Nikkei rose 1.10%, S&P/ASX 200 moved 0.48% higher while Kospi and Nifty 50 gained 0.60% and 0.25% respectively. Indices from China traded higher as well
3. DAX futures point to a higher opening of today's European cash session
4. First Republic Bank reportedly exploring potential sale, according to Fox Business
5. US Treasury Secretary Yellen told senators that government refunds of uninsured deposits will not be extended to every bank that fails, only those that pose systemic risk to the financial system
6. Fitch believes that recent developments in US will not cause major shifts in US monetary policy
7. S&P affirms US at AA+; with Outlook Stable pointing to continued economic resilience
8. MUFG analysts said US inflation data remained elevated enough to justify FED 25bp rate hike next week
9. Goldman Sachs expects ECB to hike rates by 25 bps in May
10. Japan Economy Minister Goto doesn't expect a big impact on Japan's economy from US banking sector issues
11. Cryptocurrencies are trading higher today - Bitcoin jumped over 4.0% and is testing 26,000 mark, while Ethereum advances more than 2.0%
12. Energy commodities are trading mixed - oil rose 0.3% while US natural gas prices fell 0.8
13. Precious metals trade higher today - silver jumped 1.4%, gold adds 0.7%
14. AUD and NZD are the best performing major currencies while USD and CAD lag the most

USDJPY pair pulled back to major support at 133.00, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave launched in January 2021.

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USDCHF

USDCHF pair provided clear negative trades yesterday, and begins today with new decline to attempt to break 0.9260 level again, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that our waited targets begin at 0.9150 and extend to 0.9060.

Stochastic provides negative signals that support the continuation of the expected decline, reminding you that the continuation of the bearish wave depends on the price stability below 0.9316.

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Bitcoin

Cryptocurrencies are enjoying another day of strong gains with BITCOIN rallying over-7% and looking towards the $27,000 mark. The most popular coin took out a local high from Tuesday today and reached a fresh 9-month high. While cryptocurrencies performed poorly between mid-February and early-March, the digital asset market took a U-turn this week. Actions of US authorities aimed at stemming contagion risk from collapse of tech- and crypto-related banks, triggered a rally on cryptocurrencies market. Bitcoin is currently trading over 35% above a local low reached as recently as a week ago on March 10, 2023. Solid gains have been all across the cryptocurrency market this week.

A number of cryptocurrencies rallied over-20% over the past week! Taking a look at the BITCOIN chart at D1 interval, we can see that the coin has not only fully recovered from the February 21 - March 10 sell-off but has even jumped noticeably above mid-Friday's peak in the $25,000 area. Coin is closing in on a $27,000 mark. Near-term potential resistance levels to watch are marked with lower and upper limits of a short-term trading range from May and June 2022 at $29,000 and $31,500, respectively.

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EURUSD

Industrial production in the US remain unchanged at 0.0% in February, below market consensus of a 0.2% MoM rise.

EURUSD is rather unimpressed by today's data. The pair continues to trade around 1.0620 level.

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US100

Nasdaq-100 (US100) failed to sustain bullish momentum and break above the 12,750 pts resistance zone. The index is pulling back today as concerns over the condition of the US and European continue to linger over markets. However, Nasdaq-100 drops the least among major Wall Street indices due to an almost non-existent share of the banking sector in the index.

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US500
Concerns over the condition of the banking sector triggered a sell-off on the global stock markets this week and now investors hope that FED will ease its hawkish rhetoric at a meeting scheduled for next week.. We will get to know what Fed's response is the coming Wednesday at 6:00 pm GMT. However, rate decisions from the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank will also draw attention, and so will flash PMIs for September from Europe and US. Be sure to watch US500, DE30 and GBPCHF next week!

US500
FOMC rate decision is a key event of the week. The market anticipates the Fed will hike rates by just 25 basis points, in light of easing inflationary pressures and the recent banking turmoil. However, some expect that the central bank can reverse course if the financial system is in distress. We will see whether those expectations are met on Wednesday, 6:00 pm GMT and any deviation away from a 25 bp move could potentially trigger additional volatility on the markets. The meeting will also be closely watched as a new set of economic forecasts will be provided.

DE30
While central banks will draw the most attention next week, release of flash PMI indices for March may also trigger a jump in volatility. German manufacturing and services indices are expected to rise slightly compared to February releases and weaker-than-expected print could provide some fuel for DE30 bulls. As usual, focus in Europe will be primarily on releases from France (Friday, 8:15 am GMT) and Germany (8:30 am GMT).

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EURUSD

EURUSD pair shows calm positive trades to gradually towards our waited target at 1.0745, getting good support by the EMA50, to keep the bullish trend suggested for the upcoming period.

It is important to monitor the price when reaching the targeted level, as breaching it will extend the bullish wave to reach 1.0920 areas as a next main station, while consolidating against the bullish wave will press on the price to rebound bearishly to test the minor support areas around 1.0635 initially. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1.0635 will stop the expected rise for today and push the price to turn to decline to visit 1.0515 level as a first station.

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GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair provided new positive trades to test 1.2200 barrier, waiting to get positive motive that assists to push the price to continue the price and achieve our positive targets that start at 1.2260 and extend to 1.2440 after surpassing the previous level.

The EMA50 continues to support the expected bullish wave, which depends on the price stability above 1.2060, as breaking it will put the price under negative pressure that targets testing 1.1940 before any new attempt to rise.

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Gold

Precious metals gain amid increase in risk-aversion and pullback in US yields

Strong upward move launched on the gold market on March 8, 2023 is continuing at the beginning of a new week. Risk-off moods can be spotted on the financial markets at the beginning of a new week and it is providing support for safe haven assets, like for example gold. UBS will buy troubled Swiss lender, Credit Suisse, in a government-brokered deal. However, this failed to ease market concerns as the deal will include write down of Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds and this may turn out to be a hit to banks and other institutions with exposure to Credit Suisse. Apart from that, Fed and 5 other central banks (ECB, BoJ, BoE, BoC and SNB) will switch from weekly to daily USD swap auctions in order to boost USD liquidity. US yields pulled back providing even more support for precious metals.

As a result of those market moves, gold is trading over 1% higher on the day. Gold price climbed above $2,000 per ounce this morning, reaching the highest level since March 2022.

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