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  • #18,601
  • Mar 15, 2023 6:04am Mar 15, 2023 6:04am
yikes Credit Suisse
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,602
  • Mar 15, 2023 8:00am Mar 15, 2023 8:00am
Fear
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,603
  • Mar 15, 2023 1:48pm Mar 15, 2023 1:48pm
Quoting The Fool
Meanwhile, the next bank debacle is sneaking around outside there, in the shadows....
hahaha well I guess that wasn't hard to predict. I am such a junkie I keep Bloomberg on overnight and listen to it in my sleep, woke up when the spoos tanked on the early Credit Suisse news. Really fucked up my bounce fantasies....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,604
  • Mar 15, 2023 2:35pm Mar 15, 2023 2:35pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I keep Bloomberg on overnight and listen to it in my sleep
Pro tips!
  • #18,605
  • Mar 15, 2023 3:25pm Mar 15, 2023 3:25pm
So the ECB in the same boat as the Fed now, needing to decide on staying the course with their qt in the face of worrisome financial system risk developments - Credit Suisse over there and the SVB fallout here. ECB decision early tomorrow could move markets either way with increased volatility. C Suisse a bigger problem with more systemic risk implications. Maybe too big to fail but also too big to figure out in short order. The ECB kind of sets the stage for the FOMC. I kind of think they will both remain hawkish. We'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,606
  • Mar 15, 2023 4:50pm Mar 15, 2023 4:50pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I did however, this week quietly move chunky liquid asset account contents out of Key and local Credit Union accounts and into a new one at Chase.....
Youre not alone there

I think the big difference in this secular cycle(I consider what we are experience the end of a 40 year secular bull) is that we are sitting on top of an amount of leverage never before imagined. Therefore the volatility and moves across all asset classes will be massively magnified.
I still am calling for a mammoth move in ES up to ~7000, Dxy to 80, gold to 3K, silver to 50, 10Y to 0%, TLT to 200….

Everything happening currently is just strengthening my resolve. If it all comes to pass Ill go to cash and possibly go hide somewhere off grid with security and sustainable food/water.
  • #18,607
  • Mar 15, 2023 10:33pm Mar 15, 2023 10:33pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} I Dont expect the market to stay down long. Eyes on oil... if it craters, that should be bullish the broad market , and it sure is teetering Also have eyes on the 10Y .. above 3.93- 3.98% changes the playing field from a tech standpoint, although nothing else has really changed. Its key not to let price change sentiment when macro trading....
We'll so far I'm 2 for 3

Oil cratered ... Check
10Y got bitch slapped from 3.98% .... Check

Now where is my equity rally?
  • #18,608
  • Edited 2:43am Mar 16, 2023 12:06am | Edited 2:43am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Now where is my equity rally?
We got this. Christine'll go 50 and set up JPow for 25 next week. There will be lots of "don't worry we in charge" soothing language at the pep rallies. I don't think there will be much new horror from the zombie banks.

https://assets.change.org/photos/7/o...jpg?1530418612
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,609
  • Edited 2:51am Mar 16, 2023 2:32am | Edited 2:51am
I can almost taste that 4,000 pin Friday. Might splurge on a cheap SPY call backspread as shown below....

(Same idea Mar20 QQQ calls @ $310....same IWM $185 calls, the latter for pennies)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,610
  • Mar 16, 2023 2:40am Mar 16, 2023 2:40am
I am sitting at about be on all the call calendars shown above. Just need a rally tomorrow to push the RUT & NDX into some profit. Note RUT & NDX front strike is Mar 17, but that's the European Mar 17, which means I will have to close them tomorrow, or let the front calls expire worthless. I'll grab the $ if I can. SPX used to be the same way but they cut a American Friday expiry strike to meet high demand for that booger.

A good rally towards 4000 by Friday will get my Mar17/20 SPX 4050 calendar calls into nice profit - looking for a net out >$4.00...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,611
  • Mar 16, 2023 4:19am Mar 16, 2023 4:19am
Quoting The Fool
I am sitting at about be on all the call calendars shown above. Just need a rally tomorrow to push the RUT & NDX into some profit. Note RUT & NDX front strike is Mar 17, but that's the European Mar 17, which means I will have to close them tomorrow, or let the front calls expire worthless. I'll grab the $ if I can. SPX used to be the same way but they cut a American Friday expiry strike to meet high demand for that booger. A good rally towards 4000 by Friday will get my Mar17/20 SPX 4050 calendar calls into nice profit - looking for a net out >$4.00...
Hey,

being long (spx) is the most obvious trade here, which is why the market may very well stall and chop into next week as well. Everyone already knows that there's backstops in place in this banking crisis and if CB's keep their hawkish tone then that can keep dragging markets. Just my opinion. Cheers.
  • #18,612
  • Mar 16, 2023 8:57am Mar 16, 2023 8:57am
Quoting catch22
{quote} Hey, being long (spx) is the most obvious trade here, which is why the market may very well stall and chop into next week as well. Everyone already knows that there's backstops in place in this banking crisis and if CB's keep their hawkish tone then that can keep dragging markets. Just my opinion. Cheers.
Yep we are headed fr a green day I bet. Do you trade options?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,613
  • Mar 16, 2023 8:58am Mar 16, 2023 8:58am
Quoting The Fool
I can almost taste that 4,000 pin Friday. Might splurge on a cheap SPY call backspread as shown below.... (Same idea Mar20 QQQ calls @ $310....same IWM $185 calls, the latter for pennies)
entered some of the SPY backspreads shown, although in <1/2 that size....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,614
  • Mar 16, 2023 10:31am Mar 16, 2023 10:31am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Yep we are headed fr a green day I bet. Do you trade options?
possible, for sure.

Yes, i trade options too, mostly for volatility reasons. They "aide" my underlying spot/futures positions. I usually don't make directional bets with them. Cheers.
  • #18,615
  • Mar 16, 2023 10:43am Mar 16, 2023 10:43am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} We got this. Christine'll go 50 and set up JPow for 25 next week. There will be lots of "don't worry we in charge" soothing language at the pep rallies. I don't think there will be much new horror from the zombie banks. https://assets.change.org/photos/7/o...jpg?1530418612

Nice to see the plan come together... Not sure what stops yields from falling... Although yields falling should just spur more risk on.... And oil still can't hold a bid
  • #18,616
  • Mar 16, 2023 11:10am Mar 16, 2023 11:10am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Nice to see the plan come together... Not sure what stops yields from falling... Although yields falling should just spur more risk on.... And oil still can't hold a bid
i dont think yields will fall anytime soon. ECB just raised as promised. CB's just backstop banks from failing and keep their inflation fighting process. Yields will just stay elevated for longer period. Won't rise too much either any more.
  • #18,617
  • Mar 16, 2023 12:00pm Mar 16, 2023 12:00pm
Quoting catch22
{quote} i dont think yields will fall anytime soon. ECB just raised as promised. CB's just backstop banks from failing and keep their inflation fighting process. Yields will just stay elevated for longer period. Won't rise too much either any more.
Looking under the hood there has just been a massive rush for collateral across the major funding mechanisms around the world. I certainly think rates bounce... Just had them lower before they did...although they are certainly trying as I'm typing this.

Fun to piece together the puzzle though....
  • #18,618
  • Mar 16, 2023 12:14pm Mar 16, 2023 12:14pm
Quoting The Fool
I am sitting at about be on all the call calendars shown above. Just need a rally tomorrow to push the RUT & NDX into some profit. Note RUT & NDX front strike is Mar 17, but that's the European Mar 17, which means I will have to close them tomorrow, or let the front calls expire worthless. I'll grab the $ if I can. SPX used to be the same way but they cut a American Friday expiry strike to meet high demand for that booger. A good rally towards 4000 by Friday will get my Mar17/20 SPX 4050 calendar calls into nice profit - looking for a net out >$4.00...
That NDX the bright spot, in for 95c out for $4.00, solid 3-bag. Looking forward to trading that more as Naz has been a hard rallyer. Be lucky to close the RUT calendars for a dime gain, holding SPX calendars until tomorrow. All the bullish backspreads (SPY & QQQ) are in good profit, those were entered early today as indices were still red. Fuck me dead I have survived the roller coaster from Hell, it seems.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,619
  • Mar 16, 2023 12:27pm Mar 16, 2023 12:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Be lucky to close the RUT calendars for a dime gain, holding SPX calendars until tomorrow.
Actually, RUT nets out a nickel loss, feel lucky with that as RUT was whacked down hard.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,620
  • Mar 16, 2023 1:08pm Mar 16, 2023 1:08pm
something like Mar24/27 NDX 13,300 calls.....will wait a bit to see if those can be had for a lot less, will shop for put spreads also
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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