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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,341
  • May 9, 2007 3:29am May 9, 2007 3:29am
i will go long at 238.78 tp50 pips sl 90pips .
....
  • #4,342
  • May 9, 2007 3:47am May 9, 2007 3:47am
Hey Sami

If this is your usual risk/reward ratio you will lose your account - it should be the other way around (unless your system has an extremely high success rate)
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #4,343
  • May 9, 2007 4:13am May 9, 2007 4:13am
Quoting Geldmeister
Hey Sami

If this is your usual risk/reward ratio you will lose your account - it should be the other way around (unless your system has an extremely high success rate)
Seems to me that Sami is a follower not a trader.....
  • #4,344
  • May 9, 2007 4:15am May 9, 2007 4:15am
Quoting stevetan2010
Seems to me that Sami is a follower not a trader.....
geee...why stereotype people like dat?
  • #4,345
  • May 9, 2007 4:39am May 9, 2007 4:39am
Quoting cesarnc
Nice chart... I jumped in at 238.60 and will add at 238.14 (this is GU 1.9926x UJ 119.50 if goes down there).

SL 237.50 on both.

1st TP 239.34, pivot as guideline... May jump out before on discretion.
This was a good one Cesarnc. Thanx to u, im up over 100 pips on both longs at 238.15 and 238.60.

Bless u.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,346
  • May 9, 2007 4:42am May 9, 2007 4:42am
Quoting gagiul
This was a good one Cesarnc. Thanx to u, im up over 100 pips on both longs at 238.15 and 238.60.

Bless u.
Greedy bastard

Pivot now at 238.71 and R1=239.17, previous bottomish for some time... I'll Tp partials at that level
  • #4,347
  • May 9, 2007 4:51am May 9, 2007 4:51am
Quoting cesarnc
Greedy bastard

Pivot now at 238.71 and R1=239.17, previous bottomish for some time... I'll Tp partials at that level
you take these levels from masterforex.co.uk right? i also started to rely on them, especially on daily and 4 hours pivots....
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,348
  • May 9, 2007 5:02am May 9, 2007 5:02am
Quoting cesarnc
Pivot now at 238.71 and R1=239.17, previous bottomish for some time... I'll Tp partials at that level
Just TP'd manually here 239.08... Too many times this damn pair bounced 1 pip from my targets...

I'm in need to start banking profits for days already...
  • #4,349
  • May 9, 2007 5:03am May 9, 2007 5:03am
Quoting gagiul
you take these levels from masterforex.co.uk right? i also started to rely on them, especially on daily and 4 hours pivots....
No... I have an indicator in the MT4 that updates the daily pivot at 00:00 GMT and keep the levels whatever the chart's timeframe
  • #4,350
  • May 9, 2007 5:17am May 9, 2007 5:17am
Hey gagiul (and all),

File attached.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Daily Fib Pivots.ex4   20 KB | 306 downloads
  • #4,351
  • May 9, 2007 5:23am May 9, 2007 5:23am
Quoting cesarnc
Hey gagiul (and all),

File attached.
thanx a lot man.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,352
  • May 9, 2007 5:27am May 9, 2007 5:27am
Quoting gagiul
thanx a lot man.
No problem...

This last move in Cable was a EURGBP correction, so nothing can be said about how traders will get into position for the FOMC.

That being said, if for some reason the USD gets stronger ahead of the news, GU can easily turnaround, that's why I decided to TP partials.

In the other hand, UJ would be beneficiary in this scenario. Question then would be which would move better, GU or UJ, as to figure out what GJ will do.

Big day for GBP pairs is tomorrow and 0.25% hike confirmed (0.5% possible but not likely) will favor GBP pairs, specially the carry trades, imo
  • #4,353
  • May 9, 2007 5:34am May 9, 2007 5:34am
Hi Cesarnc!
Thanks for that great trade. But are you thinking of re-entering long at the bottom of this present dip?
Eyes For Pips!
  • #4,354
  • May 9, 2007 5:39am May 9, 2007 5:39am
Cesarnc,

I honestly think that after this rumor of the market that Bernanke maybe won't be so dovish this time, the traders are puting cash now.. the market suddenly started to move...
  • #4,355
  • May 9, 2007 5:44am May 9, 2007 5:44am
Quoting Ecogates
Hi Cesarnc!
Thanks for that great trade. But are you thinking of re-entering long at the bottom of this present dip?
in my humble opinion, I would bet on GY going higher than 239.20 until UY goes above 120 and GU above 1.9940 which are both resistances...
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,356
  • May 9, 2007 6:00am May 9, 2007 6:00am
Quoting Ecogates
Hi Cesarnc!
Thanks for that great trade. But are you thinking of re-entering long at the bottom of this present dip?
I'm cautious with GJ today as it's a dollar day. GBP pairs will be favored tomorrow with some degree of previsibility.

Problem today is that FOMC is not a 1 second event like most of the news we deal with. SInce no-change is largely expected, the market goes after FED's words that (intend to) justify the decision.

Quote
I honestly think that after this rumor of the market that Bernanke maybe won't be so dovish this time, the traders are puting cash now.. the market suddenly started to move...
Totally agree. US economy is showing mixed-to-negative indicators that could justify a rate cut, but it is also at high inflation levels. The combination of the two is what is stalling FED from cutting rates.

So the market will wait for FED's words as to (try to) figure out whether or not a rate cut lies in the near future.

How is the market going to get into position before the news and how it is going to trade the aftermath is an incognito to me.

HOWEVER

There are comments that a hawkish FED is likely to prop USDJPY up more than GBPUSD down, due to the BOE's rate statement for tomorrow. Makes sense. In this landscape, GJ long will be favored. But as I said before, I don't like to increase my GJ positions when the day is all about the dollar.
  • #4,357
  • May 9, 2007 6:45am May 9, 2007 6:45am
Quoting Geldmeister
Hey Sami

If this is your usual risk/reward ratio you will lose your account - it should be the other way around (unless your system has an extremely high success rate)
my ratio 3win:1 loss = 150-90=+60 and i us to move my tp and sl at the condtion of the market and the let me make more than 120 pips evry 4 trades,
....
  • #4,358
  • May 9, 2007 8:46am May 9, 2007 8:46am
let me make my prediction here:
Us rate, unchange
GB: 0.25
JP; will rise its rate to 0.75 this year

and i believe 240.15 is the top of GBP/JPY. in next two month, we will see a correction like what happened in March.
  • #4,359
  • May 9, 2007 9:09am May 9, 2007 9:09am
Trade close +50 pips ,
....
  • #4,360
  • May 9, 2007 9:41am May 9, 2007 9:41am
Quoting sami772
Trade close +50 pips ,
Hey sami me too! But My USDJPY dip scoop only gave about 20 pips and my GBPUSD is in the red lol.

Long live the GJ dragon. Now waiting for some nice USD news releases to shake up my system

If the value stays the same, current weakness in USD might mean another dip or 2 but carry trades will resume and we will ride the waves up.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
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