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The Swamp

  • #107,581
  • Mar 15, 2023 10:46am Mar 15, 2023 10:46am
Quoting mmccormac
{quote} If these levels don’t hold I see a fall to 1.0300/1.0250 or 1.0100/1.0080 ish. Doesn’t look great on the bigger chart unless it breaks & bounces hard or unless these current levels hold. On the rate situation, all central banks are going to be under pressure.
Bad inflation in the U.S. is worse inflation in most of the world. When in doubt in 2008. The world bought the USD. Even bought the USD when the EZ had higher rates, while the FED was cutting
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,582
  • Mar 15, 2023 11:39am Mar 15, 2023 11:39am
Tomorrow evening 4 EST. There may be a large move.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,583
  • Mar 15, 2023 11:59am Mar 15, 2023 11:59am
Quoting gatorinla
Tomorrow evening 4 EST. There may be a large move.
Bookmark this. Tattoo it on your forehead. It may be a dud. but it has big market potential for late Thursday.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,584
  • Mar 15, 2023 12:16pm Mar 15, 2023 12:16pm
Why, what is it related to?
I play the trade gamble to feed my Porsche addiction.
  • #107,585
  • Mar 15, 2023 12:27pm Mar 15, 2023 12:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bookmark this. Tattoo it on your forehead. It may be a dud. but it has big market potential for late Thursday.
Lehman brothers moment or ww3

Maybe swiss national bank will bail out CS now that saudis have backed out
  • #107,586
  • Mar 15, 2023 12:32pm Mar 15, 2023 12:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bookmark this. Tattoo it on your forehead. It may be a dud. but it has big market potential for late Thursday.
Not sure what you looking for then? The ECB rate decision Thursday morning will be a big one, though. Do they keep hiking while Cr Suisse teeters on the verge of collapse? This is a preview of the FOMC @ 3/22, they in the same boat. If the ECB holds off on more qt, expect risk assets to react favorably across the board. Idk, though - maybe the Central Bankers are all about tough love now. Cr Suisse I see on the wire asking SNB for a show of support. So far, crickets.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #107,587
  • Edited 12:47pm Mar 15, 2023 12:36pm | Edited 12:47pm
Who went to the window may be exposed 4pm est tomorrow. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...y20230312a.htm


This article seems to have watched this bank crises coming. The hurricane coming was plotted. Before it hit land. https://www.aier.org/article/rising-...ses-questions/


"
Because of its nature (the discount window is usually marketed as a relief valve for stressed financial institutions, which may presage financial stability problems) there is a stigma associated with its use. This is not entirely justified, as there are certainly firms that make use of the discount window periodically without liquidity problems. A prime example of those are small banks that face considerable and/or unpredictable seasonal business fluctuations.
The use of the Fed’s discount window tends to be viewed as a source of concern among other banking firms, caveats notwithstanding. A measure taken to facilitate the use of the discount window without the effect of freezing the borrowing institution out of other lending markets is the introduction of a two-year gap between use of the window and the * Fed’s public release of the names of borrowing firms."

*This may change. It may be released tomorrow at 4pm est.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,588
  • Mar 15, 2023 12:54pm Mar 15, 2023 12:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
Who went to the window may be exposed 4pm est tomorrow.
Yeah, that'll be interesting, but there's probably already alot of general knowledge about who is out there swimming without their trunks on. 4PM EST Thurs seems like a long time away at this point. The tide might come in some by then, might go further out. The looky-loo atrocity of the day is Credit Suisse. Good timing for that drama to get aired out on the eve of the next ECB rate announcement.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #107,589
  • Mar 15, 2023 1:09pm Mar 15, 2023 1:09pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Yeah, that'll be interesting, but there's probably already alot of general knowledge about who is out there swimming without their trunks on. 4PM EST Thurs seems like a long time away at this point. The tide might come in some by then, might go further out. The looky-loo atrocity of the day is Credit Suisse. Good timing for that drama to get aired out on the eve of the next ECB rate announcement.
That's one way to see it. I see it like this. Some countries dont have a window. So how bad off are they? The dropping of the curtain in the U.S. May have a detrimental affect on some U.S. banks. It may also cause some other countries banks more problems. The same news concerning banks can hit equities. The tightening can cause less liquidity. I dont know the future. I do know liquidity issues were in the forefront of 2008. So I dont discount what I dont know. Nobody here knows the effect atm. It has potential to move the market. Credit Swiss may be the least of any problems. Only 10% of an iceberg can be seen on the surface. 90% is underwater. What most of us see, is what we are told. By guys who only repeat what someone told them. A lot of things are unknown. The connections are yet to be known.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,590
  • Mar 15, 2023 1:32pm Mar 15, 2023 1:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Only 10% of an iceberg can be seen on the surface. 90% is underwater. What most of us see, is what we are told. By guys who only repeat what someone told them. A lot of things are unknown. The connections are yet to be known.
Well, that's for damn sure. Just like Rummy said, there are things you know you know and those things also you know you don't know. The known unknowns. It's the unknowns you don't know that you don't know that'll bite you in the butt the hardest. I'd rather know, though, even if it hurts. That's why, I'd bet this - regardless of what the ECB and The FOMC do, after they're done doing it, that will put a floor under risk assets. (like - "ok, well, now we know"...). Credit Suisse situation is tougher because outcomes maybe harder to time and predict. A beached whale can take a surprisingly long time to die. Once it does though, boy it really stinks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #107,591
  • Mar 15, 2023 1:35pm Mar 15, 2023 1:35pm
can really ruin your picnic

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #107,592
  • Mar 15, 2023 1:43pm Mar 15, 2023 1:43pm
I'm not so old to remember 30 countries use the Eur. They all get a shot at voting on things. Just getting enough to agree is one thing. The logistics of getting the 30 members together, debate, and vote. Takes time. By that time, the market has run. I remember when Greece needing funding, it took time.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,593
  • Mar 15, 2023 1:45pm Mar 15, 2023 1:45pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Well, that's for damn sure. Just like Rummy said, there are things you know you know and those things also you know you don't know. The known unknowns. It's the unknowns you don't know that you don't know that'll bite you in the butt the hardest. I'd rather know, though, even if it hurts. That's why, I'd bet this - regardless of what the ECB and The FOMC do, after they're done doing it, that will put a floor under risk assets. (like - "ok, well, now we know"...). Credit Suisse situation is tougher because outcomes maybe harder to time and...
Is the one they blew up with dynamite?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,594
  • Mar 15, 2023 1:50pm Mar 15, 2023 1:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Is the one they blew up with dynamite?
lol yeah....big chunks of rotting whale came raining down on people and cars in the nearby parking lot. Good times....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #107,595
  • Mar 15, 2023 1:53pm Mar 15, 2023 1:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}lol yeah....big chunks of rotting whale came raining down on people and cars in the nearby parking lot. Good times....
Yeah i remember that one. I think in Washington, somewhere out West.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,596
  • Mar 15, 2023 1:55pm Mar 15, 2023 1:55pm
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  • #107,597
  • Mar 15, 2023 2:03pm Mar 15, 2023 2:03pm
Quoting euroboy2208
{image}
Hmmm a stronger bank mixes with a weaker bank. What's could go wrong? Does anyone see the smoke and mirrors?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,598
  • Mar 15, 2023 2:15pm Mar 15, 2023 2:15pm
Cnbc just reported. A Swiss lawmaker said. There is no discussion concerning a bailout atm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,599
  • Mar 15, 2023 2:29pm Mar 15, 2023 2:29pm
CNBC reports: "Swiss regulator : in contact with CS, Central bank to provide liquidity if needed"
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,600
  • Mar 15, 2023 2:50pm Mar 15, 2023 2:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Hmmm a stronger bank mixes with a weaker bank. What's could go wrong? Does anyone see the smoke and mirrors? {image}
https://amp.charlotteobserver.com/ne...le9151889.html

Something like that?
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