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The Swamp

  • #107,561
  • Mar 15, 2023 4:41am Mar 15, 2023 4:41am
Day range low has reached @1.0679...
  • #107,562
  • Mar 15, 2023 4:52am Mar 15, 2023 4:52am
Day down trend stop per sys I 1.0746 tested.. let's see bears can hold at NY close
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  • #107,563
  • Mar 15, 2023 4:56am Mar 15, 2023 4:56am
Quoting Boulder
FX option expiries for Mar 15 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0500 1.7b 1.0700 1.8b 1.0750 3.5b 1.0800 932m 1.0830 1.8b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.1900 1b - USD/JPY: USD amounts 133.00 1.6b 134.00 541m 135.00 668m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6675 502m 0.6720 926m - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3500 744m 1.3575 1.5b 1.3725 837m 1.3945 1.1b
I had a long pending off the 30m at 0664, sl 54. I canceled when i saw what option was at 0650. Now I have to think, if it hit 0650. Why not 1.0638?.. So I have one at 0639x pending.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,564
  • Mar 15, 2023 5:27am Mar 15, 2023 5:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I had a long pending off the 30m at 0664, sl 54. I canceled when i saw what option was at 0650. Now I have to think, if it hit 0650. Why not 1.0638?.. So I have one at 0639x pending.
I will leave it anyway for Friday close. But the option was 750.
I can short 1.0732, if it makes it there. Since the 15 min went to bears. Maybe even 1.0694/1.07 is R
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,565
  • Mar 15, 2023 5:46am Mar 15, 2023 5:46am
The world banking news looks dire.. It may bounce to 1.0665/66. That may be a sell. My long is not healthy looking .. the sl below my trend 1.0626. i trimmed tp to 0665
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,566
  • Mar 15, 2023 5:50am Mar 15, 2023 5:50am
Quoting Boulder
Day down trend stop per sys I 1.0746 tested.. let's see bears can hold at NY close {image}
H4 uptrend stop at 1.0614.. I have flat all my shorts on this drop... sideline..
  • #107,567
  • Mar 15, 2023 5:59am Mar 15, 2023 5:59am
s/o, I left a pending s at 1.0665
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,568
  • Mar 15, 2023 6:02am Mar 15, 2023 6:02am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} H4 uptrend stop at 1.0614.. I have flat all my shorts on this drop... sideline..
My 1h trend at 1.0726 barely held. The close was 1.0726.8.. I was skeptical about going back to 0665 again. The close gives it a little breath
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,569
  • Mar 15, 2023 6:08am Mar 15, 2023 6:08am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} H4 uptrend stop at 1.0614.. I have flat all my shorts on this drop... sideline..
maybe a waste money.. try a long here 1.0616.. stop loss 1.0596
  • #107,570
  • Mar 15, 2023 6:21am Mar 15, 2023 6:21am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} maybe a waste money.. try a long here 1.0616.. stop loss 1.0596
stop out .. no more catch the falling knife...
  • #107,571
  • Mar 15, 2023 6:28am Mar 15, 2023 6:28am
H4 now at 1.0601
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  • #107,572
  • Mar 15, 2023 6:50am Mar 15, 2023 6:50am
Quoting gatorinla
The tube figureheads are saying this bank situation on the Westcoast is not systemic. Maybe so, but the banks are holding paper. On buildings while people work at home. Many people have moved away from the higher priced real estate in the valley. These 2 situations make paper on those have less vaule. A lot of the west coast tech has a like situation. Houses were bought often above asking. When a thread is pulled. It has some affect on the entire blanket. Higher rates affect banks profit. Less loans more defaults....
Hmmm the same "Figure heads", were begging the FED to step in. You know the guys some think are genius. Who made a few bucks, and now think they know everything. The guys who dont want government in their business. Are now begging government to get in their business.

What a difference in thinking when it comes to them losing money. The "mommy mommy" syndrome "I skinned my knee"
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,573
  • Mar 15, 2023 6:55am Mar 15, 2023 6:55am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Hopefully someone will buy it over the weekend. The FEDS closed it after hours. There could be contagion. Pay attention this weekend. This could grow like Lehman Brothers. Like Buffet says. "You dont know who is swimming necked, until the tide goes out".
yep
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,574
  • Mar 15, 2023 7:06am Mar 15, 2023 7:06am
Its all about "compared to what". The eur/usd is about comparing. If one bank is having trouble making money. Do to higher rates. So is many others. But it is a big secret. Was a big secret

Quoting gatorinla
The situation with U.S. banks is hurting the USD atm. Watching CNBC atm. A lot of the guest and commentators. Are talking about the FED may not be able to raise much more. I dont hear anyone talking about comparisons. If this banking situation stops the FED from raising. It could cause inflation to run much higher. The "comparisons" I speak of being. Core inflation is higher in Europe already. More run away core inflation in the U.S. May be amplified in other places with higher inflation. Those countries...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,575
  • Mar 15, 2023 7:58am Mar 15, 2023 7:58am
Quoting Boulder
H4 now at 1.0601 {image}
4h bearish now
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,576
  • Mar 15, 2023 8:04am Mar 15, 2023 8:04am
https://www.reuters.com/business/fin...on-2023-03-15/
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,577
  • Mar 15, 2023 8:11am Mar 15, 2023 8:11am
Credit Swiss down to 1.80$ a share
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,578
  • Mar 15, 2023 10:17am Mar 15, 2023 10:17am
Credit Swiss on the floor.. ECB had indicated a raise.. What will the ECB do now? Not raise? Just a 1/4 raise..... I dont think its a peachy outlook. A raise was priced in.
As always the energy inflation will be higher in the EZ.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,579
  • Mar 15, 2023 10:22am Mar 15, 2023 10:22am
Quoting gatorinla
Credit Swiss on the floor.. ECB had indicated a raise.. What will the ECB do now? Not raise? Just a 1/4 raise..... I dont think its a peachy outlook. A raise was priced in. As always the energy inflation will be higher in the EZ. {image}
Yeah, central bankers are in a tough spot. If they hike it is a policy mistake considering the situation, if they don't, they will lose credibility on their commitment to lower inflation.
Kinda, damned if you do and damned if you don't
Price = the amount a greater fool is willing to pay!
  • #107,580
  • Mar 15, 2023 10:30am Mar 15, 2023 10:30am
Quoting gatorinla
Credit Swiss on the floor.. ECB had indicated a raise.. What will the ECB do now? Not raise? Just a 1/4 raise..... I dont think its a peachy outlook. A raise was priced in. As always the energy inflation will be higher in the EZ. {image}
If these levels don’t hold I see a fall to 1.0300/1.0250 or 1.0100/1.0080 ish. Doesn’t look great on the bigger chart unless it breaks & bounces hard or unless these current levels hold.

On the rate situation, all central banks are going to be under pressure.
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