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  • #18,581
  • Mar 12, 2023 10:49pm Mar 12, 2023 10:49pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Nice. I notice usually these days when you tap into somebody's subscription service, whatever it is, it includes access to the private Discord chats. I guess that's where all the traders are now. Anyway, idk if I have time to get sucked into more chat. I can get some of that for free right here on good ole dinosaur FF.
Bloomy chat used to be the place all the cool kids who traded institutional money would hang out. You quickly learn they are a bunch of desperate degens just like the rooms here on ff. Only difference is they have cooler toys and enforced risk params
  • #18,582
  • Mar 12, 2023 10:50pm Mar 12, 2023 10:50pm
Quoting The Fool
The Fed, the FDIC, Grandma Yellen, and Jake (from State Farm) all come together b4 Asian open to say soothing words to ward of Kontagionz. We'll see if it sticks. Next up is the Fed, ready to pause now. Buy buy buy! {image}
If the market gets wind the fed is done hiking the market will fly
  • #18,583
  • Mar 13, 2023 12:51am Mar 13, 2023 12:51am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} If the market gets wind the fed is done hiking the market will fly
if the Core CPI prints @ 5.4% or lower I'd bet the Fed really will skip a March hike. At any rate, we are set for a hella bullish week if the stars even halfway line up.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,584
  • Mar 13, 2023 2:36am Mar 13, 2023 2:36am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}if the Core CPI prints @ 5.4% or lower I'd bet the Fed really will skip a March hike. At any rate, we are set for a hella bullish week if the stars even halfway line up.
seems this bull move may peter out a bit Monday, we'll see. Looking to see at the open what the vol crush is. Time spreads I'm looking at are for Mar 14/15, want to catch any move off the CPI .... if spoos goes up much more Monday I will be looking to fade that. In this market the next whipsaw is always just around the bend....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,585
  • Mar 13, 2023 7:31am Mar 13, 2023 7:31am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} I Dont expect the market to stay down long. Eyes on oil... if it craters, that should be bullish the broad market , and it sure is teetering Also have eyes on the 10Y .. above 3.93- 3.98% changes the playing field from a tech standpoint, although nothing else has really changed. Its key not to let price change sentiment when macro trading....
Gotta think spooz may want to test 3650... But with oil and yields on the drop it could really rip off those levels...
  • #18,586
  • Mar 13, 2023 8:35am Mar 13, 2023 8:35am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}seems this bull move may peter out a bit Monday, we'll see. Looking to see at the open what the vol crush is. Time spreads I'm looking at are for Mar 14/15, want to catch any move off the CPI .... if spoos goes up much more Monday I will be looking to fade that. In this market the next whipsaw is always just around the bend....
Vol getting spicy...

Man if we really get a wash to 3650 that sets up a monster buying opp
  • #18,587
  • Mar 13, 2023 8:57am Mar 13, 2023 8:57am
The game of chicken = the Fed vs. the Market - who capitulates first? The Fed in their emergency meeting today, I expect it'll be them, there will be some explicit words of a pause in qt. Meanwhile, the next bank debacle is sneaking around outside there, in the shadows....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,588
  • Mar 13, 2023 9:37am Mar 13, 2023 9:37am
been trying take advantage of big bacwardated skew in SPX options iv with some Mar14/15 call calendars, targeting 4,025, tough to fill cheap though
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,589
  • Mar 13, 2023 9:46am Mar 13, 2023 9:46am
Quoting The Fool
been trying take advantage of big backwardated skew in SPX options iv with some Mar14/15 call calendars, targeting 4,025, tough to fill cheap though
early there was a 10-12% spread and those calendars were 65c, that spread has narrowed to 5-7%, need to be faster to catch these, I've never been fast enough to be a good daytrader, need to be a mchine...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,590
  • Mar 13, 2023 3:49pm Mar 13, 2023 3:49pm
RUT most vulnerable to legging down, look at those iv's, they will likely drop even on a down move. But I needed something for a hot CPI.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,591
  • Mar 13, 2023 6:42pm Mar 13, 2023 6:42pm
Idk, after bouncing around like a March hare the last few days, I won't be surprised to see a muted reaction from stocks @ an in-line CPI print.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,592
  • Mar 14, 2023 2:56am Mar 14, 2023 2:56am
I am thankful that I am not smart enough to fully understand what is going on in the bond markets. Moves in the 2-yr ust over the last few days unmatched since 1987 crash. Moves in German bunds, I hear, the largest ever seen since the euro began. Not sure I know what to make of this shitstorm. I keep hearing, though, that the impact on banks is going to result in much tighter lending practices> Hmm, how bout that? What the Fed (and other CBs) could not bring about by orderly qt, perhaps will be achieved now by other means? Hard to imagine there won't be more carnage in the smaller banks....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,593
  • Mar 14, 2023 9:27am Mar 14, 2023 9:27am
Quoting The Fool
Idk, after bouncing around like a March hare the last few days, I won't be surprised to see a muted reaction from stocks @ an in-line CPI print.
in-line and this rally looks like it could get some legs if there's no new atrocity news from the fin space. I entered Mar17/20 call calendars in SPX and RUT, targeting 4050 and 1900....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,594
  • Mar 14, 2023 1:11pm Mar 14, 2023 1:11pm
I expect confused & choppy stocks until the bonds settle down....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,595
  • Edited 3:48pm Mar 14, 2023 3:18pm | Edited 3:48pm
Here's what I ended up with, need to see lotsa green candles to close the week. RUT 1900 is a bit far but SPX, otoh, if they can get above 3,950 tomorrow, will have a shot at pinning 4,000 by Fri, which is my goal. Battling iv crush on these call calendars, so need some greenies to stack up.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,596
  • Mar 14, 2023 3:52pm Mar 14, 2023 3:52pm
Quoting The Fool
RUT most vulnerable to legging down, look at those iv's, they will likely drop even on a down move. But I needed something for a hot CPI.
....closed the RUT put calendars near the open for about a 60% loss. No regrets....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,597
  • Edited Mar 15, 2023 12:28am Mar 14, 2023 4:08pm | Edited Mar 15, 2023 12:28am
NDX +276 on the day, sitting at 12,200, ...12,500 looks well in reach by Thurs/Fri, which will pay well. Curious as to how I may get filled trying to close it, hope to be in decent profit to find out. Naz been the better mover lately... these are well worth trading, even if there be slippage on the low volume. Huge roi....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,598
  • Mar 14, 2023 10:20pm Mar 14, 2023 10:20pm
The U.S. bond market, the Euro$, JGBs, and just about every other major funding mechanism just gave the signal… Basically The collateral system has gotten really really bad(thats been lost in this yield meltdown). The massive volume in the funding mechanisms are just hedging going nuclear and no one willing to insure mega corps against an end of the world risk event.
The 4w bill yield dropped an astonishing 15bps from yesterdays close, its not 8bps under the current RRP and there’s a rate hike a little over a week away. Just huge stress. Even though today seemed calmer the collateral run continued. There’s also been a huge surge at the Fed’s “regular” securities lending window. If todays level holds tmmrw, at $53bln it would be a new record beating the previous high set at the end of Sept.

Like I said before, eyes on oil. WTI futures curve is back to contango- demand/liquidity becoming an issue yet again. Crazy the Fed isnt paying attention to oil breaking to just pennies of fresh yearly lows since WTI moves the CPI more than any other factor. Where’s China reopening? Where’s the “hot” US economy? All fantasy….

The banking crisis could certainly drop us to 3650, but we are primed for a hell of a rally from down here. After that, the major catastrophe we have all feared seems like a foregone conclusion…
  • #18,599
  • Mar 15, 2023 12:05am Mar 15, 2023 12:05am
Quoting Wulfgar
…. The banking crisis could certainly drop us to 3650, but we are primed for a hell of a rally from down here. After that, the major catastrophe we have all feared seems like a foregone conclusion…
https://www.lynalden.com/march-2023-newsletter/

Setting up for the Mar FOMC, but the real moves near-term might come out of left field, impossible to time. So, as usual, I try to have something on for every eventuality.

Anyway, I only need to think ahead a few days maybe a few weeks, at most, anything else above my pay grade. This shit is really over my head and it's too late to change my major. I see the 2yr ust up only 10bps overnight, I think if it would settle down around 4.5% then do nothing for a while there would be a little space for a directional move north. You can tell it wants to..... The Fed is becoming almost an afterthought, drowned out in the sickening noise of things breaking, but if they a) hold back totally, or b) go 50 bps on 3/22, well that could be a binary trade scenario that we likes....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,600
  • Mar 15, 2023 12:09am Mar 15, 2023 12:09am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I only need to think ahead a few days maybe a few weeks, at most, ....
I did however, this week quietly move chunky liquid asset account contents out of Key and local Credit Union accounts and into a new one at Chase.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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