He mentioned weak because shorting these pairs is trading against the carry traders. Carry traders have loads and loads of money, they will protect their positions better than banks - they may even be banks themselves.
Trade with the Carry Traders. Once we smell the unwinding, go with them.
Nothing wrong with that. Just be aware that you're exposing yourself to more whipsaws. I would restrict pullback entries to the 24 EMA.
Um, "Clansman" is not the best choice of name. I mean, dude!
oh how I wish I was a carry trader. I like the idea of having loads and loads of money!
joke aside, BurgerKing, thank you for the tip. It's something I didn't know but sure will keep in mind.
Now, I don't mean to litter the thread with phylosophical off-topic discussion, but if all traders big and small follow this principle, that would mean GBP/JPY and similar pairs would go up FOREVER, right? Carry traders defending it, no one smart would go against it, that means most of the time we would only have LONG trades, hence price would go up and up...
Felicia, you're right. Pull back was sharp indeed. I'm still novice trader, so I'm not familiar with all the "moods" and behaviors of certain currencies, but now I remember you said JPY might go +/- 50,100 PIPs just like that.
I guess I was lucky this time. It started towards the loss, was about -14, now I'm good about +20. Cross your fingers for me
thanks,
Shone
Like I said, the chart doesn't lie. We can philosophize all we like, but a signal is a signal, and you were right to take it.
Hi all, I just wanted to share my backtest results with you on this system. I did this on the 1 hour only with pullbacks to at least the 12EMA as an entry. For an exit I waited until the 12EMA actually touched the 24EMA. Once in I stayed in until the exit and didn't reenter at pullbacks which may give you better results. Many timies getting out using your own discretion would have given you more pips. I tested this from April 2nd until May 7th. YThere were 8 trades, 4 wins and 4 losses for a total pip profit of 399. All 4 loosers could have taken a 50 pip profit as well. Looks like this is a very good system. I believe with trader discretion this could have easily been 550 - 600 pips. Thank you Felicia...you go!!
PS I forgot to mention that this is only on the Cable as this is the only pair I trade and that this is only the second time I have ever backtested anything. Has anyone else backtested this?
My own backtesting is all visual; it's nice to see actual pip numbers. The trades that were losers after being 50-pip winners should have been closed out at break even at the very least. I would never let a trade turn into a loser after being ahead that much. Felicia is this the system that has worked for you the best and the only one you trade?
Thank you Felicia, just to confirm these MA's are all Exponential at the close, and what have you seen as a good pip goal per trade? I can delete this post after your reply if you would like in case it doesn't belong here. Thank you again...
PS Are you self taught or did you have someone mentor you on all these techniques...you seem like a very knowledgeable trader...are you full time?
The stories he has are fascinating. In short, he thought it was the best entry system he had ever seen. I modified it with different colors to create the crocodile jaw opening and added the 200 EMA as a trend filter. Now he is using my version. Cornflower and the "5/10" (my 5-min) are of my own devising, though they are really nothing original from a conceptual standpoint.
