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  • #18,561
  • Edited 1:35pm Mar 8, 2023 1:18pm | Edited 1:35pm
tryin fill this RUT dbl cldr, to catch a big NFP move. I think the bigger risk is upside - we see a big miss downside (some yakkers are saying big neg #) then we will see indices pop 2 sigma Friday.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,562
  • Mar 9, 2023 2:09am Mar 9, 2023 2:09am
Quoting The Fool
I have my Ronco Trademaster set to pick up "disinflation" and "25" and if/when it does, I'm long SPX.
What does '25' mean in this context?
  • #18,563
  • Mar 9, 2023 8:53pm Mar 9, 2023 8:53pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote}What does '25' mean in this context?
25 basis points @ the next FOMC rate h
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,564
  • Mar 9, 2023 9:00pm Mar 9, 2023 9:00pm
Quoting The Fool
tryin fill this RUT dbl cldr, to catch a big NFP move. I think the bigger risk is upside - we see a big miss downside (some yakkers are saying big neg #) then we will see indices pop 2 sigma Friday.
I filled something like the dblcal RUT and also same on QQQ's, shaded pretty hard bullish, with strikes way out 10 delta for Friday/Monday.....if NFP sparks another big sell-off, I'll have to close those for a loss.

I expected a big move, but off NFP Friday, not today, but the financials news did it, and the flows into treasurys looks like real fear...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,565
  • Mar 10, 2023 12:17am Mar 10, 2023 12:17am
I usually put on way otm long verts to guard the tail risk of calendar traps like this, but I will put them on the day b4, didn't get the chance today as I was traveling, and the big move kind of ruined that idea also. Going to be an interesting day Friday.....idk, might end up being anti-climactic.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,566
  • Mar 10, 2023 2:51am Mar 10, 2023 2:51am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I expected a big move, but off NFP Friday, not today, but the financials news did it, and the flows into treasurys looks like real fear... {image}
...I bet fin markets will dodge a bullet but this whiff of panic means the Fed's aggressive approach to rate hikes has to be put on hold. And you know what that means:

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,567
  • Edited 9:48am Mar 10, 2023 9:33am | Edited 9:48am
All the RUT Mar10/13 $1800 calendar puts, while RUT @$1800, in for 95c, out for $6.25, didn't hold any cuz there could be lots more downside today.....same date QQQ $292 and $293 put calendars all in for about 40c, out now for 95c. Nice result on the RUT puts....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,568
  • Mar 10, 2023 11:20am Mar 10, 2023 11:20am
will blow over by Monday I bet. Could end up being a gift for stock bulls....

https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/...?itok=yZ2KFe9A
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,569
  • Mar 10, 2023 11:49am Mar 10, 2023 11:49am
Quoting The Fool
All the RUT Mar10/13 $1800 calendar puts, while RUT @$1800, in for 95c, out for $6.25, didn't hold any cuz there could be lots more downside today.....s.
...always second guessing these time spreads, you really should hold on to some til the close of the short leg day if there's a chance it might pin the target strike. I saw these worth almost $9 earlier, if RUT tries to pin 1800 near the close, it could go to $19. Otoh, there's a lot to be said for money in the bank & moving on....with RUT proceeds I bot the lotto tickets shown. I have been wanting to trade sme NDX spreads to see if they can work, been watching volumes come up, it's ok on the monthly expiry days. There's a covered call fund (QYLD) that's popular with dividend stock traders, and they always have their 5,500-6,500 lot trade in the monthly calls.....anyway, the calendars below filled right at the mid.....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,570
  • Mar 10, 2023 3:01pm Mar 10, 2023 3:01pm
Quoting The Fool
will blow over by Monday I bet. Could end up being a gift for stock bulls....
I didn't see no capitulation....yet.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,571
  • Mar 10, 2023 7:16pm Mar 10, 2023 7:16pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I didn't see no capitulation....yet.
pretty orderly sell off tbh…..
  • #18,572
  • Mar 11, 2023 6:21am Mar 11, 2023 6:21am
Is all this bank failure chatter just background noise?
  • #18,573
  • Edited 2:46pm Mar 11, 2023 2:23pm | Edited 2:46pm
Quoting clemmo17
Is all this bank failure chatter just background noise?
idk, we'll see soon enough, I guess. Many are saying SVB is an isolated instance of a bank with a lot of poorly managed credit risk from an uncommonly narrow set of depositors. Still, @ the 16th largest bank in the USA, easy to suspect there may be some more shoes to drop. I think it'll blow over, but may take some time. As noted above, this will be spun as a reason the Fed needs to ease up on their pace of qt, and let what they have already done sink in. Sounds right enough to me, but I will be positioning for more downside in the coming week or so.

I still have running the Mar24 SPX IC with 3775/3750 puts / 4250/4275 calls - I will be rolling those down in the coming week, I expect...and looking for shorter term hedging trades for the puts.....

(same date the IC, roll the calls down to 4100/4125, roll down the puts to 3700/3675.....we'll see what the new week brings but the roll above could probably be done for <50c loss)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,574
  • Mar 11, 2023 6:44pm Mar 11, 2023 6:44pm
I like this guy's stuff. I might buy a subscription for a month or two & see if it's worth it. I have never been able to convince myself to spend money on trading resources that I don't need, though. You can get a lot out of Yahoo Finance and a $10 TDA account which will get you ToS. (ToS is the one thing I could not do without, I guess - or would not want to, anyway.)

I have thought about paying for FinViz premium, BookMap, etc, etc, but I don't think I would use them much.

What do any of you pay for re: trading tools & resources?

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,575
  • Mar 11, 2023 7:27pm Mar 11, 2023 7:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I still have running the Mar24 SPX IC with 3775/3750 puts / 4250/4275 calls - I will be rolling those down in the coming week, I expect...and looking for shorter term hedging trades for the puts.....
an alt to rolling the puts will be to put on RUT dbl diag as shown or similar. If the market moves against the SPX IC puts, I'll have lotsa time to roll, but profit from the earlier RUT put diag could fund the roll cost. All eyes on Tues CPI, it is going to be another interesting week....

RUT and SPX usually correlate dead nuts
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,576
  • Mar 11, 2023 10:27pm Mar 11, 2023 10:27pm
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,577
  • Mar 12, 2023 8:39am Mar 12, 2023 8:39am
Quoting The Fool
What do any of you pay for re: trading tools & resources?
I used to pay for all sorts of different services. Especially when I was heavily trading in illiquid corporate bonds. It's incredible how quickly access to that data adds up.

Finally just settled on a Bloomberg subscription and never looked back. It's about $2400 a month but it's streamlined and the API has the best support possible. Plus it's only a little more expensive than it's direct competitors or trying to piecemeal all of what it does together. Granted I only use maybe 30% of it's capabilities, but it's come in clutch more times than I can count.
  • #18,578
  • Mar 12, 2023 2:19pm Mar 12, 2023 2:19pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Finally just settled on a Bloomberg subscription and never looked back. It's about $2400 a month
Nice. I notice usually these days when you tap into somebody's subscription service, whatever it is, it includes access to the private Discord chats. I guess that's where all the traders are now. Anyway, idk if I have time to get sucked into more chat. I can get some of that for free right here on good ole dinosaur FF.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,579
  • Mar 12, 2023 5:28pm Mar 12, 2023 5:28pm
The Fed, the FDIC, Grandma Yellen, and Jake (from State Farm) all come together b4 Asian open to say soothing words to ward of Kontagionz. We'll see if it sticks. Next up is the Fed, ready to pause now. Buy buy buy!

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  • #18,580
  • Mar 12, 2023 5:38pm Mar 12, 2023 5:38pm
All I axing for is a 5-10% rally by Thursday.
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