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The Swamp

  • #107,361
  • Mar 7, 2023 4:20pm Mar 7, 2023 4:20pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Still holding long. It's tough, if your bearish the dollar, to stomach a day like today, but it is what it is. I have no play until 1.0520 is decided. Too much of a no man's land for me around this big quarterly zone. Could send us down as far as 1.0088 again.... My if-then scenario includes the market staying heavy to through tmmrw and Thursday, with a jobs report induced rally on Friday. So the game plan is to stay long and ride it out.
I would like to see a week close below 1.0552 and 1.0515.. The inflation news today should grind on these some..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,362
  • Mar 7, 2023 4:24pm Mar 7, 2023 4:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I would like to see a week close below 1.0552 and 1.0515.. The inflation news today should grind on these some.. {image}
The indicater draws these. week above.. this is a month
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,363
  • Mar 7, 2023 4:29pm Mar 7, 2023 4:29pm
While she is grinding the R at 1.0549 may allow passage. The residual at 1.0574.9 may not be so willing.

ATM price is 1 pip below 1.0549.. Between the grind low, and 1.0549, it may not move much.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,364
  • Mar 7, 2023 5:23pm Mar 7, 2023 5:23pm
The close made the RWB line up.. the green lines up between RW (green is not there yet). The yellow 30 is near 1.0574.9..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,365
  • Edited 6:53pm Mar 7, 2023 6:28pm | Edited 6:53pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} System II H4 reversed as well.. better to short bounce next a few days {image}
The day 200ema is down here 1.0536 ish. I figure a week close below 1.0515 should take care of it. I dont want to overlook a test of 1.0574.9.. With the latest inflation news from Powel.. It may not bounce much with those ma's lining up There should be some R develop at 1.0549. It sometimes will test the old one at 1.0574.9
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,366
  • Mar 7, 2023 9:11pm Mar 7, 2023 9:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
While she is grinding the R at 1.0549 may allow passage. The residual at 1.0574.9 may not be so willing. ATM price is 1 pip below 1.0549.. Between the grind low, and 1.0549, it may not move much.
It barely made it back above 0549, since close.. Its grinding below. It did hit the 200 now. 0515 is close. If it has a little bounce in it. This may be where it does. A weak bounce may be as little as 0549, 0574.9 could also be one. That's if it has any bounce. I have a dynamic s at 0528. I have new pending shorts to catch a bounce.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,367
  • Mar 7, 2023 9:23pm Mar 7, 2023 9:23pm
Fundis bearish.. Technicals bearish. What are you?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,368
  • Mar 7, 2023 9:34pm Mar 7, 2023 9:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
Fundis bearish.. Technicals bearish. What are you?
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  • #107,369
  • Mar 8, 2023 3:40am Mar 8, 2023 3:40am
Hi, hope everyone is well.

Can we have the data for GOLD please, thanks
Cheers!!
  • #107,370
  • Mar 8, 2023 3:45am Mar 8, 2023 3:45am
Well done Gator and other short traders! Waiting for the dust to clear, leaving some sell orders above, lets see where the week ends..
Never say never.
  • #107,371
  • Mar 8, 2023 5:57am Mar 8, 2023 5:57am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} {image}
1.0549 may not let it.. But if it does, secondary 1.0674. Its being squeezed into 1.0528 and 0515. The man said his expectation's were greater raises at a faster pace. Employment has been good. So he still has a green light. PA is now under the week 0551. PA is like stepping on a tube of toothpaste. A very unattractive women in a bar, insulted a friend of mine. She called him "fat." He said "yeah I'm fat, but I can loose weight. What can you do about that face?" The moral of the story being, its bearish. What can you do about it? The man pulling the strings has said, "he will raise more, faster". You dont have to go "all in". Then be stuck if it rises 25+ pips. You could do a little bit, and add. A little at a time. On those little bounces.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,372
  • Mar 8, 2023 6:20am Mar 8, 2023 6:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1.0549 may not let it.. But if it does, secondary 1.0674. Its being squeezed into 1.0528 and 0515. The man said his expectation's were greater raises at a faster pace. Employment has been good. So he still has a green light. PA is now under the week 0551. PA is like stepping on a tube of toothpaste. A very unattractive women in a bar, insulted a friend of mine. She called him "fat." He said "yeah I'm fat, but I can loose weight. What can you do about that face?" The moral of the story being, its bearish. What can you do about it? The man...
Even with last years drop. The eu has not done this until this month for 20 years. The 20 sma on the month has not been below 1.0835. Its below it now. Its below it with the year, bi-year, quarter, month lined up. The week being the next piece at 1.055x.. PA is below it atm. PA yesterday ran and closed below the day, 12h 6h 4h 3h 2h 1h etc. That was/is a very strong move.

Its not that the week cant recover, and make this the low before a bull run. It could do this in the face of the Fed. In the game of probabilities. The FED has the upper hand. Those ma's take a lot of persuasions to develop over time. The odds being, this is the wind to a short's back. Plus the swap favors a short. Today is trip swap day.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,373
  • Mar 8, 2023 6:40am Mar 8, 2023 6:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1.0549 may not let it.. But if it does, secondary 1.0674. Its being squeezed into 1.0528 and 0515. The man said his expectation's were greater raises at a faster pace. Employment has been good. So he still has a green light. PA is now under the week 0551. PA is like stepping on a tube of toothpaste. A very unattractive women in a bar, insulted a friend of mine. She called him "fat." He said "yeah I'm fat, but I can loose weight. What can you do about that face?" The moral of the story being, its bearish. What can you do about it? The man...
FX option expiries for Mar 8 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
- EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  1. 1.0500 797m
  2. 1.0560 2.5b
  3. 1.0600 902m
  4. 1.0645 1.5b
  5. 1.0670 2.3b

  • #107,374
  • Mar 8, 2023 6:46am Mar 8, 2023 6:46am
Quoting PipsMaster23
Hi, hope everyone is well. Can we have the data for GOLD please, thanks
Gold
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  • #107,375
  • Mar 8, 2023 6:50am Mar 8, 2023 6:50am
Eur.. watch bears can hold H1 trend stops ..1.0553 to 1.0561
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  • #107,376
  • Mar 8, 2023 6:59am Mar 8, 2023 6:59am
If today, some crazy stuff happens. Where pa closes today above 1.0635 dynamic. That may allow a bull run. I favor a bear run. If pa ends the day above 1.0635, Its a bad sign for bears caught in a trap.

I favor bears. Some trapped long stops in the 1.0480/70/0515 area. Stops being hit trigger shorts, and b/o trades. New longs trading the low stop's, are not so deep.
I had plans to long here last week 1.0515/18 after the week 20 sma was reached. Powel and the ma's weaned me . I prefer to sell the bounces. The above paragraph would be "a deer in the headlight moment." I have it posted beforehand. I did have pendings at 1.0515/18. Because of support. I canceled them.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,377
  • Mar 8, 2023 7:03am Mar 8, 2023 7:03am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} FX option expiries for Mar 8 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0500 797m 1.0560 2.5b 1.0600 902m 1.0645 1.5b 1.0670 2.3b

We missed all those longs on COT. During the COT blackout. Those s/l may start hitting just below 1.0480.
1.0549 R developing.. Residual at 1.0574
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,378
  • Mar 8, 2023 7:06am Mar 8, 2023 7:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} We missed all those longs on COT. During the COT blackout. Those s/l may start hitting just below 1.0480
. look at hour chart..those FVG ..
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  • #107,379
  • Mar 8, 2023 7:10am Mar 8, 2023 7:10am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} . look at hour chart..those FVG .. {image}
day fvg at 1.0552 to 1.0621
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  • #107,380
  • Mar 8, 2023 7:15am Mar 8, 2023 7:15am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} . look at hour chart..those FVG .. {image}
a 1h is not good now..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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