Attachments: daily range Strategy

daily range Strategy

#421
Nov 21, 2006 7:19am Nov 21, 2006 7:19am

62a94
| Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 24 Posts

Quoting JillyB

Disliked

16th November = 20 pip profit
17th November = 28 pip loss
20th November = b/e (15 pips in my direction was hit before it started to retrace, therefore I exited the trade at b/e)

Ignored

jillyB are you saying you made this with the 22 pip straddle and 23 pip tp and 25 sl? i lost all days did you win today i lost

#422
Nov 21, 2006 8:15am Nov 21, 2006 8:15am

62a94
| Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 24 Posts

Did anyone make profit off the 20 or 25 straddle at the open today??

MR DETROIT

#423
Nov 21, 2006 8:40am Nov 21, 2006 8:40am

JillyB
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 95 Posts

Quoting 62a94

Disliked

d

jillyB are you saying you made this with the 22 pip straddle and 23 pip tp and 25 sl? i lost all days did you win today i lost

Ignored

Yes, today was another 28 pip loss.

#424
Nov 21, 2006 8:47am Nov 21, 2006 8:47am

llambert3
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 971 Posts

Quoting JillyB

Disliked

Yes, today was another 28 pip loss.

Ignored

maybe if you look at it and see a 25 pip straddle would've been near the 1.9000 mark (on my chart exactly that) you would not put in the trade. Seems like these type of numbers are hard to overcome sometimes. Just a thought.

#425
Nov 21, 2006 8:55am Nov 21, 2006 8:55am

62a94
| Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 24 Posts

Quoting JillyB

Disliked

Yes, today was another 28 pip loss.

Ignored

JILLY i stopped out with a 20sl and a 25 trigger was that why my trade failed

jilly can you do me a big favor can you give me the way you setup your trade today with you spread included i'm assumimg you set your trade up at london open which was 1.8976 give me The actual numbers you imputed, i know this is a lot to ask you so i greatly appreciate this. also you said you had a profit of 28 pip but in your earlier post you said the tp was 20 were does the other 8 come from. second target perhaps

thanks MR DETROIT

#426
Nov 21, 2006 9:29am Nov 21, 2006 9:29am

62a94
| Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 24 Posts

Sorry Jillyb I Misread Your Post

#427
Edited Nov 22, 2006 7:37pm Nov 21, 2006 10:20am | Edited Nov 22, 2006 7:37pm

robertvo
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 3 Posts

Hi permanentjaun,
I really enjoyed your posts, so I'd like to share some ideas I found out after about 3 years of research and backtesting of different systems.

I think efficiency is not the main goal of a system. In my oppinion consistency is the main goal and in fact I think consistency is the holly grail.

If your system makes pips very consistently, it doesn't matter how many pips, you can leverage and compound that into milions of $$$$ in a couple of years.

For me it's very easy to find out what are the optimal parameters for your straddle system. I can find optimal Timing, optimal SL, optimal TP using my homegrown optimization algorithms. But what happens is that we curve fit your system to the history, which I can guarantee it will not repeat in the future in the same way.

However by using multiple lots with different SL and TP, it will not make most pips (wont be most efficient), but it will be more STABLE. So it will be less curve fitted to the past and will have more potential to be more consistent in the future.

Could you please share your excel backtested results with us?

Robert
{link removed, see rule 3}

#428
Nov 21, 2006 10:45am Nov 21, 2006 10:45am

62a94
| Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 24 Posts

does anyone agree with me when i say that cable has developed an upward consolidation that is limiting it's daily range therefor whipshawing smaller stradlles out such as 20 or 25. or am i just CRAZY, which one is it?

#429
Nov 21, 2006 11:53am Nov 21, 2006 11:53am

traderone
| Joined Feb 2005 | Status: Trader | 392 Posts

Quoting robertvo

Disliked

Hi permanentjaun,
I really enjoyed your posts, so I'd like to share some ideas I found out after about 3 years of research and backtesting of different systems.

I think efficiency is not the main goal of a system. In my oppinion consistency is the main goal and in fact I think consistency is the holly grail.

If your system makes pips very consistently, it doesn't matter how many pips, snip
But what happens is that we curve fit your system to the history, which I can guarantee it will not repeat in the future in the same way.

Robert

Ignored

Robert this is a great post. My studies over the past several years would agree. Consistant pips rather than large number of pips is the key. I too feel that we start to curve fit over past data, which will never be repeated the same way in the future.

Currently I am using small lots on straddles with multiple take profit points. So far, this seems to be very promising.

Don Life is expensive, but includes a free trip around the sun.

#430
Edited Nov 22, 2006 7:36pm Nov 21, 2006 12:14pm | Edited Nov 22, 2006 7:36pm

permanentjaun
| Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 655 Posts

Quoting robertvo

Disliked

Hi permanentjaun,
I really enjoyed your posts, so I'd like to share some ideas I found out after about 3 years of research and backtesting of different systems.

I think efficiency is not the main goal of a system. In my oppinion consistency is the main goal and in fact I think consistency is the holly grail.

If your system makes pips very consistently, it doesn't matter how many pips, you can leverage and compound that into milions of $$$$ in a couple of years.

For me it's very easy to find out what are the optimal parameters for your straddle system. I can find optimal Timing, optimal SL, optimal TP using my homegrown optimization algorithms. But what happens is that we curve fit your system to the history, which I can guarantee it will not repeat in the future in the same way.

However by using multiple lots with different SL and TP, it will not make most pips (wont be most efficient), but it will be more STABLE. So it will be less curve fitted to the past and will have more potential to be more consistent in the future.

Could you please share your excel backtested results with us?

Robert

Ignored

I'm going to have to disagree with you. If you want consistency then we would look for a system that only gets 1 or 2 pips a day. Yes we could use the power of compounding to make those 1 or 2 pips worth a lot of money. The problem is even 1 or 2 pips isn't 100% guaranteed.

Say the system is a remarkable 98% successful for 1 pip. The 2% of the losing times our order is stopped out for a 30 pip loss. So for every 100 trades we have 98+ gain with 60 loss. Total profit is only 38 pips. Now alter the system to a 2 TP and 30 SL. The system is only 95% accurate now. (Still a very high success rate) Out of 100 trades we would have 180+ gain and still 60 loss. Net profit is 120 pips.

The first scenerio is more consistent than the second, but the second is more efficient. By keeping the SL the same and doubling our TP we have effectively increased our expected profits by 300%. This is why I don't think using multiple TP levels really helps us. There is a point which correlates with the SL we select that will give us a maximum expected payout.

To further the above scenerios I will show you the equilibrium point for similar situations. Say we have a SL of 30. We have TP levels of 10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80, and 90. For each TP level we have varying success rates as follows. 10 TP is 90%, 20 TP is 80%, 30 TP is 70%, 40 TP is 60%, 50 TP is 50%, 60 TP is 40%, 70 TP is 30%, 80 TP is 20%, and 90 TP is 10%.

The expected payouts out of 100 trades would be:

10 TP = 900 pips gain - 300 loss = +600 pips
20 TP = 1600 pips gain - 600 loss = +1000 pips
30 TP = 2100 pips gain - 900 loss = +1200 pips
40 TP = 2400 pips gain - 1200 loss = +1200 pips
50 TP = 2500 pips gain - 1500 loss = +1000 pips
60 TP = 2400 pips gain - 1800 loss = +600 pips
70 TP = 2100 pips gain - 2100 loss = 0 pips
80 TP = 1600 pips gain - 2400 loss = -600 pips
90 TP = 900 pips gain - 2700 loss = -1800 pips

It's simple economics. So the optimal TP level for a 30 SL given the success rates given is either 30 or 40. Making a quick calculation shows 35 TP, given an assumed 65% success rate gives us +1225 pips.

Efficiency means just as much about consistency as it does maximizing profit. A 10 TP may be consistent but it sure isnt the best profit level. I'm suggesting that instead of having multiple TP levels to average it out, we look for that optimum TP level. That way we aren't losing pips when we look for only 5 TP or the more rare 80 TP. There is an equilibrium point that will maximize profits somewhere and it's not at multiple points. We may not find the true equilibrium point, but we can come close such that people will have similar success. Such as if they used a 30 or 40 TP as illustrated above. Expected payouts would still be very close.

The first step we need is to find out a small enough SL that won't turn winners into losers, then we go from there. I'm hoping it's no more than 40.

Unfortunately I don't have any conclusive data to show you from my excel backtesting more than what I've already shared. I think a 61 straddle will work well with filtering out bad trades. I'm looking for opinions on a SL and then I can find the optimum TP for a 61 straddle by coming up with success rates for different TP levels from historical data.

How do you all think I should go about looking at the data. Only use 1 years worth of data or all of it? There are several periods of time when gbp/usd traded very differently than it does now. Take a look at March 2002 to June 2002. A year before that involved many large pip days, but overall movement over several months stayed relatively flat.

If we're to build the success rates for this system I think we should either use only 1 years worth of data or at least 10 years. If we look at 2-3 years then odd trading years will affect the results dramatically. By using 10 years or more we can expect that GBP/USD would have traded similar to it does now, or will in the future, and therefore the SL, TP, and success rates we find will be able to stand the test of time. Matt

#431
Nov 21, 2006 1:49pm Nov 21, 2006 1:49pm

PipBird
| Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 40 Posts

Quoting permanentjaun

Disliked

Hello all,

Anyone have any results, or at least been following along to see if this works? I'm at a new position which requires me to work 6-7 days a week so I haven't had the time. That's exactly why I want to find the solution to this system. A minute of time a day to set up the trades then walk away.

Right now I'm analyzing nearly 3 years worth of data in excel to find that magical point of efficiency. I'm an economist so I'm thinking that there should not be multiple exit points. My thinking is that by having multiple exit points we're losing pips even if we hit all of our profit levels. How so? Because if we have hit all of our TP's, then we would have been better off if we had sold all of our investment at the max TP. By creating multiple TP's we are simply creating inefficiency.

What we should be looking for is a point that is hit often enough to maximize our profits compared to our SL. Unfortunately the deciding factor in the success of this system is the SL. What SL is large enough to allow winning trades to stay winners while preventing us from losing 200 pips in a trade?

I'm essentially asking the same question the systems are based off of. If a price moves 50 pips from the open, what're the chances it'll continue to 100? The problem is that by waiting for 50 pips we have missed much of the move and to get 50 pips would require a lot more movement in the same direction. The chances of it doing so are slim compared to the chances of the price moving only another 5 pips past 50 to 55 pips.

Then the SL comes in. Our profit levels are too small to overcome the larger hits on the SL. So what we need to find is an equilibrium point to maximize profit and make it efficient. Where is our straddle? What TP will be hit enough to overcome the loss in SL hits?

I'll give several examples. Out of 718 days of data in my chart, 354 are up days. There are a few I threw out because they were doji's and there are a few updays where the actual major move was down. I'm not going to confuse things further right now. I'll post those results later if I ever read through all of it correctly.

So say our SL is 30 pips and our TP is only 5 to increase probability of successful trades. My straddle is 60 pips. So the number of instances where price is 60-68 are considered SL hits since my spread is 4 and I need a move of 69 to exit with 5 pip profit. There are 281 trades that would have been made on the up days with 27 of them being bad trades. (Again, many of those probably ended up as good trades on the next days candle, or could have been saved from another method but I'm keeping it simple.)

So 254 good trades for a profit of 1270. On the 27 bad trades we'll assume they were worst case scenerio and they each got stopped out at 30 pips. So a loss of 810. Net profit over 281 trades is 460 pips.

Now lets change our TP to 10 pips, but keep the 60 pip straddle and 30 SL. So there are still 281 trades. Anything from 60-73 is stopped out. Anything from 74+ pips is a good trade. Out of the 281 trades, 33 would be bad trades while 248 would be good. So 2480 pips in profit with 990 in loss. Total Net Profit is then +1490.

Another scenerio, TP of 20 with SL 30 and straddle the same 60. 281 possible trades. Anything from 60-83 pips up is a bad trade stopped out. Anything from 84+ pips is a good trade. Out of 281 trades, 52 bad trades and 229 good trades. So gains would be 4580, losses would be 1560. Total net profit would be 3020 pips.

Last scenerio, TP of 90, SL 30, straddle still 60 pips. Need a move of 154 to take profit. Anything from 60-153 is a bad trade. 154+ is a good trade. 83 good trades and 198 bad trades. Gains = 7470. Losses = 5940. Total profit = 1530.

So what happened? Why did net profits go down in the last scenerio? We crossed the equilibrium point for that SL level. We started to become less efficient. This is what we need to find. We have the SL level since we set it ourselves. We have the data to show us the probabilities of our TP being hit. All we need to do is input the years of input into excel and see how many days would have been losing trades. I doubt the percentages will fluctuate that much over the years to drastically affect our profits so long as we use many years worth of data.

This is all this system ever needs to be to be a successful money maker. One straddle, one TP level, and one SL level. The big problem right now is determining the SL level. Looking at the years of data in excel does not show the swings throughout a day. Unfortunately our results are drastically affected by our SL. We want a SL to allow the winners to stay winners but the big losses prevented. Is 50 SL enough for a daily chart? Maybe only 40 or do we need 70?

A system can still be made profitable with a SL of 100 and a lesser TP. What will lead to someone losing money with the system is them forcing too much out of the system. This system can be automated easily, but it may not produce bank breaking numbers. (That's yet to be determined)You have to be willing to accept only a certain amount of profit. The second you stretch more out of it is the second you take it into an inefficient zone. It will correct you automatically though. Thats the beauty of equilibriums.

What do you all think? Agree/disagree? If you agree I think the goal right now would be to find the smallest SL that doesn't take away our winning trades. The lower the better! Matt

Ignored

GoodThings Posted some interesting stats for Cable that may help determine some of this: http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...8&page=2&pp=15

#432
Nov 21, 2006 10:14pm Nov 21, 2006 10:14pm

permanentjaun
| Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 655 Posts

Very interesting. Thanks for the link. I'll be looking that over much more closely in a little bit.

Something that has been running through my head though. The strategy we're talking about would work best in situations where candles have no shadows whatsoever or at least small shadows on the counter trend side of the candle. So I've been thinking, could our success rate be increased if we altered it to a weekly chart? A quick glance shows the length of shadows on a weekly chart compared to the bodies is smaller than the shadows vs shadows on a daily chart.

It might produce a higher success rate which also allows for higher TP levels, even 100 or 200 per trade. Obviously it'd only be 1 trade per week. Who knows? Just something else to consider.

Perhaps if not a weekly gbp/usd chart then look for another currency to play on a daily/weekly chart that has small shadows compared to their candle bodies. Matt

#433
Nov 22, 2006 5:05am Nov 22, 2006 5:05am

JillyB
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 95 Posts

Today was another losing trade for the 22 pip straddle of the London open. It broke the straddle at the top and then got whipped out on the BoE Minutes news at 9.30am.

That's 3 losing trades and 1 break-even trade in the last 4 trades. So I got to thinking that perhaps it has something to do with it being the holiday week and perhaps it's best to stay out during the days around a major holiday. This then made me look at the 4th July and I noted that I'd recorded this as a losing trade, when in fact it wouldn't have been a trading day due to it being a US holiday. In fact I'd also included Columbus Day and Labor Day in the results - Columbus Day was another losing trade and Labor Day was a no trade day. So not including these days would affect the results I've posted for the better.

Also, going back to the 4th July, it interested me to note that the 5th & 6th July were also losing trades (the 3rd was a winning trade). Perhaps there is something to be said for not trading this method around major holidays as the volume is light and therefore the movement is erratic.

I take it that the other days - Columbus and Labor Day - are considered major US holidays when the markets are closed? I checked on the web and they're listed there as holidays, but I need to check that the markets are generally closed on these days. Is Memorial Day - May 29th - also a day when the US markets are closed? Interestingly the system shows a win for this day - which is why I'm asking the question.

Interestingly UK bank holidays don't appear to have any effect on how the performance so eliminating them would be irrelevant.

#434
Nov 22, 2006 6:21am Nov 22, 2006 6:21am

29340
| Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 25 Posts

JB,
thaks for the info...

#435
Nov 22, 2006 6:30am Nov 22, 2006 6:30am

llambert3
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 971 Posts

Quoting JillyB

Disliked

Today was another losing trade for the 22 pip straddle of the London open. It broke the straddle at the top and then got whipped out on the BoE Minutes news at 9.30am.

That's 3 losing trades and 1 break-even trade in the last 4 trades. So I got to thinking that perhaps it has something to do with it being the holiday week and perhaps it's best to stay out during the days around a major holiday. This then made me look at the 4th July and I noted that I'd recorded this as a losing trade, when in fact it wouldn't have been a trading day due to it being a US holiday. In fact I'd also included Columbus Day and Labor Day in the results - Columbus Day was another losing trade and Labor Day was a no trade day. So not including these days would affect the results I've posted for the better.

Also, going back to the 4th July, it interested me to note that the 5th & 6th July were also losing trades (the 3rd was a winning trade). Perhaps there is something to be said for not trading this method around major holidays as the volume is light and therefore the movement is erratic.

I take it that the other days - Columbus and Labor Day - are considered major US holidays when the markets are closed? I checked on the web and they're listed there as holidays, but I need to check that the markets are generally closed on these days. Is Memorial Day - May 29th - also a day when the US markets are closed? Interestingly the system shows a win for this day - which is why I'm asking the question.

Interestingly UK bank holidays don't appear to have any effect on how the performance so eliminating them would be irrelevant.

Ignored

It is a little wierd in that the stock market is closed Easter, but we have to work (I work for a bank). I know Labor Day and Memorial Day the markets are closed. The section I work in at the bank takes day after Thanksgiving instead of Columbus day. The other part of bank is closed so I think the markets are closed too. As far as being a major holiday, I would say Columbus Day is not. You can bet Memorial and Labor Day are though. Memorial is in our minds the beginning of summer and Labor Day the end. Everybody here does some big plans for those.

#436
Nov 22, 2006 7:27am Nov 22, 2006 7:27am

forextutor
| Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 1 Post

i thiunk thread is right io have noticed the same thing on the 15 monute chart for about two months now and it has only disobeyed this movement ones. i think some thing has to cause this bought i can't explain it fundamentally or technically.

Quoting keewi56

Disliked

I had been seeing this type of activity and had concluded that if the market was generally moving in a particular direction after the London open,then it was likely to carry that day. Nothing scientific, but there is something in this. Interested in your findings.

Ignored

#437
Nov 22, 2006 10:06am Nov 22, 2006 10:06am

traderone
| Joined Feb 2005 | Status: Trader | 392 Posts

A great day for the Micardo method. After an early week of No Trades, today was +30 and +80 pips. Thanks Micardo!

Don Life is expensive, but includes a free trip around the sun.

#438
Nov 22, 2006 10:21am Nov 22, 2006 10:21am

PipBird
| Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 40 Posts

Quoting permanentjaun

Disliked

Very interesting. Thanks for the link. I'll be looking that over much more closely in a little bit.

Something that has been running through my head though. The strategy we're talking about would work best in situations where candles have no shadows whatsoever or at least small shadows on the counter trend side of the candle. So I've been thinking, could our success rate be increased if we altered it to a weekly chart? A quick glance shows the length of shadows on a weekly chart compared to the bodies is smaller than the shadows vs shadows on a daily chart.

It might produce a higher success rate which also allows for higher TP levels, even 100 or 200 per trade. Obviously it'd only be 1 trade per week. Who knows? Just something else to consider.

Perhaps if not a weekly gbp/usd chart then look for another currency to play on a daily/weekly chart that has small shadows compared to their candle bodies. Matt

Ignored

Interesting... So of course trigger, TP and SL all adjusted. On 1st glance, 150-200 pip trigger, SL and TP seems about right.

#439
Nov 22, 2006 10:48am Nov 22, 2006 10:48am

angiegiles00
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 180 Posts

Quoting JillyB

Disliked

Today was another losing trade for the 22 pip straddle of the London open. It broke the straddle at the top and then got whipped out on the BoE Minutes news at 9.30am.

That's 3 losing trades and 1 break-even trade in the last 4 trades. So I got to thinking that perhaps it has something to do with it being the holiday week and perhaps it's best to stay out during the days around a major holiday. This then made me look at the 4th July and I noted that I'd recorded this as a losing trade, when in fact it wouldn't have been a trading day due to it being a US holiday. In fact I'd also included Columbus Day and Labor Day in the results - Columbus Day was another losing trade and Labor Day was a no trade day. So not including these days would affect the results I've posted for the better.

Also, going back to the 4th July, it interested me to note that the 5th & 6th July were also losing trades (the 3rd was a winning trade). Perhaps there is something to be said for not trading this method around major holidays as the volume is light and therefore the movement is erratic.

I take it that the other days - Columbus and Labor Day - are considered major US holidays when the markets are closed? I checked on the web and they're listed there as holidays, but I need to check that the markets are generally closed on these days. Is Memorial Day - May 29th - also a day when the US markets are closed? Interestingly the system shows a win for this day - which is why I'm asking the question.

Interestingly UK bank holidays don't appear to have any effect on how the performance so eliminating them would be irrelevant.

Ignored

Hi there

I anticipated possible whipsaw on 9.30am news today so set up s/l at 50 pips and survived to end trade 80 pips in profit.

Over last month I have demoed my spread bet account with 23 pip straddle, and did not trade US mid term elections and 3 other big news days.

I made 1 losing trade, rest were winners. I use s/l of 40 pips.

Not sure what results would be if I had traded the past month live as maybe slippage would have a large impact? This is reason I am selective which big news days I trade (red impact on FF calender).

Be interested to learn what s/l levels others on this thread are testing?

Cheers

Angie

#440
Nov 22, 2006 4:19pm Nov 22, 2006 4:19pm

permanentjaun
| Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 655 Posts

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As I said I'm doing all of my backtesting in excel since my broker does not have EA capabilities. I think I prefer it this way anyways so I can actually see all of the numbers. The problem with this is that in analyzing all the numbers it becomes very cumbersome to play with them. Looking at 700 days of numbers can be confusing looking at all the possible scenerios they create. <o

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So I thought I'd simplify things for a couple minutes. I mentioned in a previous post that for this strategy the perfect candle is one where the counter trend shadow is 0 and the body is long with a close at the high. I've been looking at other charts for GBP/USD and noticed that switching to a weekly chart gets rid of a lot of the counter trend shadows or at least makes them much more proportionally small compared to the bodies than on a daily chart. I decided to look at the data in excel.<o

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I saw some pretty interesting things. I think I was fairly correct in my observation that the counter trend shadows on weekly candles are much smaller in proportion than on daily candles. You would think a longer time frame would allow for more movement and therefore longer shadows. This isn't so much the case though. <o

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Here are the pip movements for UP weeks. The numbers on the left, high-open, show the pip movement in the real body of the candle. The values on the right are the counter trend shadows for their corresponding weeks.<o

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0.0249<o></o>

0.0118<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="3.0700000000000172E-2">

0.0307<o></o>

0.0103<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="3.939999999999988E-2">

0.0394<o></o>

0.009<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="1.760000000000006E-2">

0.0176<o></o>

0.0089<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="1.3600000000000056E-2">

0.0136<o></o>

0.0087<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="1.5900000000000025E-2">

0.0159<o></o>

0.0084<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="2.5200000000000111E-2">

0.0252<o></o>

0.0078<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 10"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="1.5700000000000047E-2">

0.0157<o></o>

0.0074<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 11"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="3.9400000000000102E-2">

0.0394<o></o>

0.0073<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 12"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="1.5200000000000102E-2">

0.0152<o></o>

0.0068<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 13"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="2.7399999999999869E-2">

0.0274<o></o>

0.0053<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 14"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="1.4700000000000157E-2">

0.0147<o></o>

0.0052<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 15"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="2.6499999999999968E-2">

0.0265<o></o>

0.0051<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 16"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="2.4699999999999944E-2">

0.0247<o></o>

0.0048<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 17"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="2.2799999999999931E-2">

0.0228<o></o>

0.004<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 18"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="1.4399999999999968E-2">

0.0144<o></o>

0.0036<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 19"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="3.8599999999999968E-2">

0.0386<o></o>

0.0033<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 20"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="3.0499999999999972E-2">

0.0305<o></o>

0.0032<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 21"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="2.7600000000000069E-2">

0.0276<o></o>

0.0031<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 22"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="3.3200000000000118E-2">

0.0332<o></o>

0.003<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 23"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="5.1199999999999912E-2">

0.0512<o></o>

0.0022<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 24"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="2.1100000000000119E-2">

0.0211<o></o>

0.002<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 25"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="4.9300000000000122E-2">

0.0493<o></o>

0.0019<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 26"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="2.1500000000000075E-2">

0.0215<o></o>

0.0019<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 27"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="3.0799999999999939E-2">

0.0308<o></o>

0.0009<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 28"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="4.0400000000000214E-2">

0.0404<o></o>

0.0005<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 29"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="1.8000000000000016E-2">

0.018<o></o>

0.0002<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 30; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="1.8899999999999917E-2">

0.0189<o></o>

0.0001<o></o>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<o

></o

>

Here are the values on DOWN weeks. So the numbers on the left are the upper shadows and the numbers on the right are the range of the body of the candle. <o

></o

>

<o

></o

>

<TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 145pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=193 border=0 u1:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 68pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3291" width=90><COL style="WIDTH: 77pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3730" width=102><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 68pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=91>high - open<o

></o

>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 77pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=103>open - low<o

></o

0.0116<o></o>

0.0242<o></o>

0.0114<o></o>

0.0134<o></o>

0.0109<o></o>

0.0111<o></o>

0.0093<o></o>

0.0167<o></o>

0.0083<o></o>

0.0209<o></o>

0.0079<o></o>

0.02<o></o>

0.0078<o></o>

0.0362<o></o>

0.0075<o></o>

0.0252<o></o>

0.0069<o></o>

0.0144<o></o>

0.0068<o></o>

0.0211<o></o>

0.0062<o></o>

0.0333<o></o>

0.0049<o></o>

0.0269<o></o>

0.0047<o></o>

0.0161<o></o>

0.0045<o></o>

0.0471<o></o>

0.004<o></o>

0.0386<o></o>

0.0028<o></o>

0.0241<o></o>

0.0024<o></o>

0.0428<o></o>

0.0024<o></o>

0.0251<o></o>

0.0021<o></o>

0.0382<o></o>

0.0016<o></o>

0.0196<o></o>

0.0014<o></o>

0.0181<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 22; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" u1:num="1.2000000000000899E-3">

0.0012<o></o>

0.0253<o></o>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<o

></o

>

Those counter trend numbers strike me as relatively small if you ask me. Lets use a 61 straddle with a 100 SL. Where should our TP be? The following scenerios are on up weeks. <o

></o

>

<o

></o

>

Let's try a 150 TP. We need 215 pip movement. This happened 19 times for a gain of 2850. Assuming worst case scenerio we would have lost 11 times for a loss of 1100. In those same candles it would have triggered 12 trades on the counter side for a loss of 1200. So only 550 pip profit. Very inefficient.<o

></o

>

<o

></o

>

Let's try a 50 TP. So 61 straddle requires a 54+61 = 115 pip move. On the UP weeks we would have hit that target EVERY SINGLE TIME. The gain would be 1500. BUT, there would have been trades triggered on the opposite side since our trigger is small. There would have been 12 trades triggered where 3 would have hit our TP and 9 losing. So 1500+150-900. 750 pip profit. Better than the first scenerio. You're averaging about 125 pips a month at that rate since these stats are only half a year or so. (The other half of the year are down weeks)<o

></o

>

<o

></o

>

I have a theory that a better equilibrium point will be where some of the trades in the correct direction do not close for profit. By allowing one or two of those to not close in profit we may gain by allowing many fewer counter trend trades to happen. Meaning we will sacrifice 2 of our winning trades to prevent making 4 losing trades. Let's try a 92 straddle with 50 TP. Still a 100 SL. We need 145 pips to close in TP.<o

></o

>

<o

></o

>

28 trades on the good side of the trend. 1400 pips. 2 not closing so -200. 4 trades triggered on the counter trend side. 2 hit TP and 2 do not. So total profits will be 1400+100-200-200 = 1100 pips. Averaging about 183 pips a month at that rate. Decent right?<o

></o

>

<o

></o

>

Looking at down weeks using the last scenario data of 92 straddle, 50 TP, and 100 SL we get the following results. 22 trades occurring on the main trend side. 19 would close for profit and 3 a loss. 650 profit. 4 trades triggered on the down side, all lose. Net gain is 250 pips. Over all the weeks then our total pip gain is 1350 or about 112 a month. Those numbers aren’t so impressive. This means that we probably shouldn’t use the same straddle and TP for down weeks. <o

></o

>

<o

></o

>

I don’t want to further this post any more since it is about to get even more confusing with numbers and scenerios. Once I change the straddle and TP for up vs down situations then it also changes the previous results. I’ll try and clean things up later.

<o

></o

>

I’m also going to test the possibility of a trailing stop loss. Is a 100 trailing stop loss large enough to prevent our week long trades from being stopped out? I’ve already shown that it’s possible to make nearly 200 pips a month using a simple 100 SL. If the large 100 trailing stop loss doesn’t stop out any winning trades, but saves the losers from being complete 100 pip losses to perhaps only 50-80 then it will greatly affect our profit margins.

<o

></o

>

I’m starting to wonder how much more one could make by using the same strategies for shorter time frames. Is it worth it? If I can find a way to have expected profits of 150-200 pips a month would it be worth it to be in front of the computer to trade the strategy on a daily or intraday timeframe? What if trading it on a daily chart only nets another 50 pips a month? Maybe if we can get an EA to successfully carry out the trades it might be. Right now I may be leaning towards the weekly chart though. 30-50 avg pips a week is enough for me. Power of compounding will make it very worth while.

<o

></o

>

I haven’t checked yet, but I’m hoping 100 SL on a weekly chart is enough. Considering the small counter trend shadows on the weekly charts I have to assume that price rarely rises 92 pips then reverses over 100 pips to form the shadow before rocketing 200-400 pips in the original direction to form the body. It’s not impossible mathematically, but if either side had that much control over the price then they wouldn’t allow for the 100 pip reverse. Understand? Anyways, would like to hear everyones thoughts. Where do you all stand on this? Thanks. Matt

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