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Let's Trade Options

  • #18,541
  • Mar 2, 2023 9:32pm Mar 2, 2023 9:32pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} A dip below 3900 feels like an absolute gift....
...big candles hard to find, best chance is sideways. I'm just ICs until this shit gets better about picking a direction, could take many months...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,542
  • Mar 3, 2023 3:12pm Mar 3, 2023 3:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...big candles hard to find, best chance is sideways. I'm just ICs until this shit gets better about picking a direction, could take many months...
EOW rally totally expected after that stupid flush in Pac-asia the other day


Bulls can thump their chests, bears maybe still have some gumption left to double down short next week.

Either way we are still in the range from October.... Just gotta play it as such
  • #18,543
  • Mar 3, 2023 6:23pm Mar 3, 2023 6:23pm
I bought a 13-month CD @ 5.25% today. Looking for the 10-yr to get there, we'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,544
  • Edited 9:47pm Mar 3, 2023 9:23pm | Edited 9:47pm
I have work to do this weekend. Understand SPX/SPY orderflow in the 0dte regime.

This guy, Dan Kauffman. His face doesn't match his voice, which is a little over the top sometimes, but this video is well worth watching for a newbie like me...

The advice he gives at the very end of the video: " 0dte basically rules the market....recognize that, sell longer duration premium, hedge off the risk, and on a day-to-day basis, be on the buy side of options." ......Word yo. Recognize.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,545
  • Mar 3, 2023 10:05pm Mar 3, 2023 10:05pm
I like Tom Lee. He's a good sport, has been a punching bag for months during the bear market. He's been bullish without wavering. Now maybe he'll turn out to be right after all. He says spoos should rally thru the next 8 weeks, to above 4,250...
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,546
  • Edited 10:54pm Mar 3, 2023 10:38pm | Edited 10:54pm
Mar10/13 calendar with the strikes set at the weekly expected move. The SPX verts guarding th calendar tail risk can be done in SPY or XSP.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,547
  • Mar 3, 2023 10:53pm Mar 3, 2023 10:53pm
go out another week and sell the IC based on the weekly expected move (or further out than that) to fund the front week combo. IC shown credits $2k, the front week combo debits $3.1k

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,548
  • Mar 4, 2023 1:55am Mar 4, 2023 1:55am
JPow testimony b4 Congress Tues, Wed, then NFP on Friday b4 the open. I could see setting up some double verts as shown for Tue Wed @ 0dte and for Thurs @ 1dte. All sides based on the daily em.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,549
  • Mar 5, 2023 9:07pm Mar 5, 2023 9:07pm
Quoting The Fool
sell longer duration premium, hedge off the risk, and on a day-to-day basis, be on the buy side of options." ...
Won't put on the double vert until Monday late or Tues morn, either way a 1-dte, with size funded by the IC
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,550
  • Mar 6, 2023 8:06am Mar 6, 2023 8:06am
starting out the week, risk looks to be upside. If much of this data lines up with the planets, we could see a big week. About frikkin time.

On the full Moon in Virgo, we have the opportunity to uncover shadows around perfectionism, feeling good enough, and accepting ourselves as we are in each moment. When Virgo meets the full Moon on March 7, 2023, it's time to release our fear of making a mistake and instead take a leap of fait
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,551
  • Mar 6, 2023 4:15pm Mar 6, 2023 4:15pm
In these near the close and may add to the verts some at the open Tues. Designed to come off tomorrow and will likely close it all if there's a big move...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,552
  • Mar 6, 2023 8:10pm Mar 6, 2023 8:10pm
Quoting The Fool
starting out the week, risk looks to be upside. If much of this data lines up with the planets, we could see a big week. About frikkin time. On the full Moon in Virgo, we have the opportunity to uncover shadows around perfectionism, feeling good enough, and accepting ourselves as we are in each moment. When Virgo meets the full Moon on March 7, 2023, it's time to release our fear of making a mistake and instead take a leap of fait
The Humphrey Hawkins thing is nearly always a non issue. They might use it as an excuse to move the market of course.

But the real fireworks is likely on friday…. I went on record saying the last jobs report was the last beat we’d see for awhile…. There was just wayyyyy too much baked into the number.
  • #18,553
  • Edited 8:45pm Mar 6, 2023 8:33pm | Edited 8:45pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} The Humphrey Hawkins thing is nearly always a non issue. They might use it as an excuse to move the market of course. But the real fireworks is likely on friday…. I went on record saying the last jobs report was the last beat we’d see for awhile…. There was just wayyyyy too much baked into the number.
They (the algos, of course) are set to rally on the merest whiff of dove. Ditto re NFP and I will roll that in with the 3/14 CPI. Looking at Mar9/Mar14 time spreads, need this 1dte trade to pay for some of those.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,554
  • Mar 7, 2023 12:55am Mar 7, 2023 12:55am
NDX, so big and juicy....too bad there's no volume. I guess I will have to splurge on some to learn my lesson about trading no-volume junk...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,555
  • Mar 7, 2023 1:21am Mar 7, 2023 1:21am
omg I just saw a tastytrade commercial on Bloomberg TV......their vids on tastylive are giving lots of lip service to 0dte options trading..(even though they're a bunch of pit relics who only sell naked)....if I hear the janitors at my building talking 0dte options, I will start to worry....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,556
  • Mar 7, 2023 7:44am Mar 7, 2023 7:44am
I have my Ronco Trademaster set to pick up "disinflation" and "25" and if/when it does, I'm long SPX.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,557
  • Mar 7, 2023 8:30am Mar 7, 2023 8:30am
Quoting The Fool
omg I just saw a tastytrade commercial on Bloomberg TV......their vids on tastylive are giving lots of lip service to 0dte options trading..(even though they're a bunch of pit relics who only sell naked)....if I hear the janitors at my building talking 0dte options, I will start to worry....
Dude its terrifying....

Shoeshine boy moment incoming
  • #18,558
  • Mar 7, 2023 12:13pm Mar 7, 2023 12:13pm
Quoting The Fool
In these near the close and may add to the verts some at the open Tues. Designed to come off tomorrow and will likely close it all if there's a big move...
...CLOSED the SPX 3900/3700 puts for $6.75, which is about a dollar credit net on the double verts. Ideally now I see a little bounce and will roll in the short call of the other vert for a credit spread to recoup some of that loss. Maybe make $1.50-2 net but we'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,559
  • Mar 7, 2023 10:34pm Mar 7, 2023 10:34pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Ideally now I see a little bounce and will roll in the short call of the other vert for a credit spread to recoup some of that loss. Maybe make $1.50-2 net but we'll see.
No bounce, yet....I'm pretty flat except the SPX Mar24 IC is still riding. Will be a watcher mostly tomorrow, but looking to get in some Mar10/15 time spreads, to try to catch moves off the NFP and the CPI.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,560
  • Mar 8, 2023 12:35pm Mar 8, 2023 12:35pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...CLOSED the SPX 3900/3700 puts for $6.75, which is about a dollar credit net on the double verts.
the put vert worth over $13 now. I took them off yesterday for < half that, but I didn't have many. When I have more conviction, I trade larger numbers, and woulda held off closing all, let some run.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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