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Trend following system is dead

  • #161
  • Mar 5, 2023 3:41am Mar 5, 2023 3:41am
I reckon most people should stop handing round the same books etc and try reading some old books that describe unorthodox views from the usual. People do not understand a trend so how could you possibly appreciate why it shifts.

Maybe broaden your horizons a bit.

I see people who want to use 'mathematical conveniences', visual 'consistencies' and other ways to 'get inside the head of the market'.

You can't if you are looking at a glasshouse.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #162
  • Mar 5, 2023 5:31am Mar 5, 2023 5:31am
Quoting Abade
{quote} The matter of fact is that you DON'T actually need an identical trend to form to make money from it, that's an absolute fallacy. BTW chart patterns are terrible! You need something that is adaptable and will let you generalize future price movements without curve-fitting (fitting to noise) Cheers!
No but you need a trend... which are objectively fading away, so back testing previous trends to gauge performance is becoming pointless IMO. That's from an ex trend trader. Idk what the chart patterns you were talking about I trade off of large market players manipulating the market. Maybe you were talking to someone else? I've never used patterns.
Seeking Fair Value
  • #163
  • Mar 5, 2023 7:15am Mar 5, 2023 7:15am
Quoting Pat Chiko
Trend following system is dead. There is no black and white in this thread....just different shades of grey. I believe that the era of trend following is over unless there is a particular imbalance in a market that overrides everything else. Another exception would be if we were to enter a major inflationary or deflationary environment. In other words, unless there is some very powerful force that can overwhelm everything else. The markets have changed during the past five to ten years because professional money managers now account for a much greater...
Trend following systems have a low winrate but do have a positive expected return. The challenging part of these systems is continually executing through the drawdowns. Almost all markets have periods of consolidation and periods of trending. It's not about a big winrate but it's more about a few big wins. The absolute basics of trend following is a donchian channel breakout with some kind of multiple for ATR for the SL. Then you just trail the SL with the ATR ensuring that the ATR (on average) gives it enough room for the pullbacks. The higher the TF you do this, the more effective but also bigger the SL and bigger the move you need to make a decent return. It's all a balance.

It's not a get rich quick scheme as the winrate is low but the expected return is positive over the long term when you use a sufficiently diversified portfolio of assets.

During the trump administration and associated trade war with China there were very defined trends.

P.S. I don't trade a trend following system but have looked into them in the past.
  • #164
  • Mar 5, 2023 12:14pm Mar 5, 2023 12:14pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- hey dave...... many have said that...... really not sure how to explain..... will try...... it is almost impossible for me to remember the exact reason unless the trades have descriptive comments telling me the reason...... then i can export to excel and see...... similar to seen here..... imagine you had indicators, scripts or ea's that could give you every imaginable buy/sell signal on every pair on every time frame....... these could send alerts, push...
Regarding if you want to sell when the indy crosses above 0 and buy when indy crosses below 0, how about selling when it is above 0 by a long shot and buying when below 0 by a long shot? RSI users do that and yourself when exiting trades using ADR, you have an extreme or at the very least a number in mind based on the average. So why not find a number based on historical movement of the indy in use and do the opposite of the 0 line move? There has got to be a point I really would want to sell above 0 line and want to buy below 0 line.

Also, looking at payton's selected statement day, it looks like the trading is fairly active. A dozen trades entetred on on 23rd and that is shown only because they were exited. Who knows how many more are holding in the tank. I know you said you have alerts going off all over the place but it looks like a lot of work. It looks like this system is screaming for automation. What holds you back from automating it?
  • #165
  • Mar 5, 2023 1:40pm Mar 5, 2023 1:40pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Regarding if you want to sell when the indy crosses above 0 and buy when indy crosses below 0, how about selling when it is above 0 by a long shot and buying when below 0 by a long shot? RSI users do that and yourself when exiting trades using ADR, you have an extreme or at the very least a number in mind based on the average.
//----

hey ot...... you are without a doubt correct.....

just to be clear, the chart with numbers and colors is only counting bars since last signal..... such as if the alma had been rising but today it fell, there would be a red 0.... if it continued to fall tomorrow, it's count would increase to a red 1...... and so on......

your suggestion of buying when below 0 by a long shot, that is often preferable...... i've done a lot of work on, loosely speaking, "reversing" trades and extreme values.......

in a strong downtrend, selling every buy signal along with selling every sell signal helps......

those signal scanners are looking for situations like a 60 minute cci > 300 in a daily downtrend, stochastic below 5 or above 95 and so on......

extreme values like you said..... good entry points...... really the same idea as selling resistance in a downtrend......

i've posted on envids site scripts that calculate trade lengths....... have not checked but usually runs less than 48 hours..... primarily because of her school..... or me because of work..... probably 25% go in as pending orders...... that alone burns some time....... how much, i'm not sure......

without a doubt, someone sitting at the computer all day could run less than 7 hours per trade.....

we are kinda laid back.......h
//------

Inserted Video
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #166
  • Mar 6, 2023 6:29am Mar 6, 2023 6:29am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.png Size: 34 KB


.. oops trend trading is back in town.
Are you now will thread move to recycle bin? Make no sense anymore because many charts talk trend trading is possible and will be in future!
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #167
  • Mar 6, 2023 6:37am Mar 6, 2023 6:37am
Quoting MichaelSch
{image} .. oops trend trading is back in town. Are you now will thread move to recycle bin? Make no sense anymore because many charts talk trend trading is possible and will be in future!
What trend? You found a 1 minute price movement lmao. EURUSD chart: WHERES THE TREND???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend....PNG Size: 5 KB
Seeking Fair Value
  • #168
  • Mar 6, 2023 6:46am Mar 6, 2023 6:46am
Quoting makingmoves
{quote}What trend? You found a 1 minute price movement lmao. EURUSD chart: WHERES THE TREND??? {image}
Lol watch chart again. You can ever find a trend.
See my chart. Price is moving higher, so you have a direction up. It make no sense here to pick another timeframe to say it is no trend. Basic stuff.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #169
  • Mar 6, 2023 7:47am Mar 6, 2023 7:47am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} Lol watch chart again. You can ever find a trend. See my chart. Price is moving higher, so you have a direction up. It make no sense here to pick another timeframe to say it is no trend. Basic stuff.
a 1 minute chart movement is not a trend by any means lmao massive hopium. You think everytime price move up or down its a trend???? In case you didn't comprehend the thread, trend FOLLOWING is dead, good luck following that trend xD Trend trading does not have to be the same thing lool. I too trend trade when given a setup, never trend following. I too was long eurusd;
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.PNG Size: 7 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: vptrade32.PNG Size: 4 KB
Seeking Fair Value
  • #170
  • Mar 6, 2023 8:03am Mar 6, 2023 8:03am
Quoting makingmoves
{quote}a 1 minute chart movement is not a trend by any means lmao massive hopium. You think everytime price move up or down its a trend???? In case you didn't comprehend the thread, trend FOLLOWING is dead, good luck following that trend xD Trend trading does not have to be the same thing lool. I too trend trade when given a setup, never trend following. I too was long eurusd; {image} {image}
What you not understand. Can you see price moving higher?
Meanwhile ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.png Size: 35 KB

Trend is avaible her. Point. If you do not see a trend you have other rule to define it. Or you will not see a trend ever? Sorry really basic stuff. The thread is a joke.
What are the lines price touched? It is a network for that?
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #171
  • Mar 6, 2023 8:18am Mar 6, 2023 8:18am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} What you not understand. Can you see price moving higher? Meanwhile ... {image} Trend is avaible her. Point. If you do not see a trend you have other rule to define it. Or you will not see a trend ever? Sorry really basic stuff. The thread is a joke. What are the lines price touched? It is a network for that?
You are obviously very stupid that you cant comprehend what the thread is about. You still cannot grasp the fact we're not saying trends don't exist anymore but trend following is pointless and that is objectively true and has been written about by some of the largest banks and institutions, last book i read by Brent Donnelly (Senior FX trader at HSBC) also shares the view fx market trend following has been dead for many years. Congratulations you found a 1 minute price movement? You want a 'well done' sticker?
Seeking Fair Value
  • #172
  • Mar 6, 2023 8:25am Mar 6, 2023 8:25am
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} You are obviously very stupid that you cant comprehend what the thread is about. You still cannot grasp the fact we're not saying trends don't exist anymore but trend following is pointless and that is objectively true and has been written about by some of the largest banks and institutions, last book i read by Brent Donnelly (Senior FX trader at HSBC) also shares the view fx market trend following has been dead for many years. Congratulations you found a 1 minute price movement? You want a 'well done' sticker?
Can you answer a question? What is price touching with increasing speed in my chart? What are the lines from? Please read something like Priceaction Breakdown from Laurentiu Damir if you will. But beware!

If people do not have a vaild point in a conversation anymore, often they tend to bring words as "stupid" and so on.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #173
  • Mar 6, 2023 8:56am Mar 6, 2023 8:56am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} Can you answer a question? What is price touching with increasing speed in my chart? What are the lines from? Please read something like Priceaction Breakdown from Laurentiu Damir if you will. But beware! If people do not have a vaild point in a conversation anymore, often they tend to bring words as "stupid" and so on.
No idea what your on about, no I wont read any retail trader nonsense to describe what a sideways chart is doing so I can drain my money to my broker/dealer...

After some quick research that guy 'Laurentui Damir' is a unknown unprofessional retail trader lol and you choose to listen to him to support your views, not interested in nobody's...
Seeking Fair Value
  • #174
  • Mar 6, 2023 9:04am Mar 6, 2023 9:04am
Quoting makingmoves
{quote}No idea what your on about, no I wont read any retail trader nonsense to describe what a sideways chart is doing so I can drain my money to my broker/dealer...
You out of any idea to follow me. It is not important as i can make many more charts to show trend trading is possible.
In your market profile chart why you not trade earlier as the famous 80% rule define.
„The Profile Reports“ (from Dalton Capital Management 1987-1991)
For sure you know that.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #175
  • Mar 6, 2023 9:11am Mar 6, 2023 9:11am
Post from you:

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post14039987

You are talking here about trends?
Like this line here?
"As always for trend trader when such a clear objective trend is present absolutely no shorts to be taken for me, only longs when all lines UP."?
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #176
  • Mar 6, 2023 9:22am Mar 6, 2023 9:22am
Quoting MichaelSch
Post from you: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post14039987 You are talking here about trends? Like this line here? "As always for trend trader when such a clear objective trend is present absolutely no shorts to be taken for me, only longs when all lines UP."?
Ahhhhhh nice now you've resorted to snooping my profile, I'm sure coincidently you missed: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post14327181

"I've traded a trend following strategy for a good few years with decreasing profitability, I recently pulled the plug on it to focus on a other outperforming strategy I trade FX with that is worth my time. Which long story short is mean reversion and trend continuation depending on market situation - essentially there's nowhere in the strategy that allows selling after the market has sold off etc. I didn't forget about trends but adapted and quit trend following."
Seeking Fair Value
  • #177
  • Mar 6, 2023 9:56am Mar 6, 2023 9:56am
Quoting makingmoves
{quote}Ahhhhhh nice now you've resorted to snooping my profile, I'm sure coincidently you missed: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post14327181 "I've traded a trend following strategy for a good few years with decreasing profitability, I recently pulled the plug on it to focus on a other outperforming strategy I trade FX with that is worth my time. Which long story short is mean reversion and trend continuation depending on market situation - essentially there's nowhere in the strategy that allows selling after the market...
It is possible. If you not have had a clue doing it in profit, other can it for sure
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #178
  • Edited 10:17am Mar 6, 2023 10:06am | Edited 10:17am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} It is possible. If you not have had a clue doing it in profit, other can it for sure
Wut... This thread is not about me... So i can only assume your still trying to trend follow hence the emotional reply's and hopium that its 'still possible' when its objectively not...

Not to mention you never said how your following that 'trend' and others in 2023 (would be easy to disprove the strategy via backtesting) you just posted a 1 min EURUSD chart.
Seeking Fair Value
  • #179
  • Mar 6, 2023 10:12am Mar 6, 2023 10:12am
Quoting MichaelSch
{image} .. oops trend trading is back in town. Are you now will thread move to recycle bin? Make no sense anymore because many charts talk trend trading is possible and will be in future!
Its clear from this post you don't understand the thread of even trend following trading ngl. 'Trend trading back in town' who said it left town xD...
Seeking Fair Value
  • #180
  • Mar 6, 2023 9:36pm Mar 6, 2023 9:36pm
You cannot expect the highest level of return from your trades as long as you are not following the right trend. Smart and expert traders don’t trade out of trend because it will dump you to losses by the end of the day.
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