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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,301
  • May 7, 2007 2:49pm May 7, 2007 2:49pm
How are you guys reading GBPJPY lately? I lost sense completely....

Are carry trades gone elsewhere? I mean, I keep receiving comments on EURJPY at high levels, */CHF, USDJPY on the move and GJ range is pathetic, at best...
  • #4,302
  • May 7, 2007 2:58pm May 7, 2007 2:58pm
i hope tomorrow till tell. it seems to get pinned now on dayly. so quess it needs to make soon something. ?

just own random thinking. it look bit our offorce. might givesome dips..
  • #4,303
  • May 7, 2007 3:02pm May 7, 2007 3:02pm
The best trending carry trade pair now is CAD/JPY---look at that it has gained more than 300 pips since last wk while GBP/JPY still wandering within 239-240 range----
  • #4,304
  • May 7, 2007 3:23pm May 7, 2007 3:23pm
I thought this ranging was because it was Golden Week last week, so Tokyo was shut for three days or something, and sapped all the volatility. It's supposed to pick up this week, but it's not doing all that much today so far.
  • #4,305
  • May 7, 2007 5:14pm May 7, 2007 5:14pm
I think we should get our weapons back and remove the dust because this week is surely gonna see serious movement. FOMC, BOE, ECB rate decisions, and besides, from today both London and Tokyo are finally out from vacation.
If still nothing special happens, I will move to EUR USD forever.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,306
  • May 7, 2007 7:28pm May 7, 2007 7:28pm
I dont know what is this about, but better keep an eye on it.

20:23We would keep an eye on the carry and the Chinese equity markets. After the cautionary comments out of the PBOC yesterday we could get a lower open in those red hot markets. If this occurs we could see some risk reduction and the carry could suffer.
  • #4,307
  • May 7, 2007 7:53pm May 7, 2007 7:53pm
If the EUR/JPY is ready to come down (Daily chart trend line has been broken), it may drag down the GBP/JPY. Both pair are highly correlated on a daily chart. Anyone agree or correcct me.
  • #4,308
  • May 7, 2007 7:55pm May 7, 2007 7:55pm
Quoting trader8686
If the EUR/JPY is ready to come down (Daily chart trend line has been broken), it may drag down the GBP/JPY. Both pair are highly correlated on a daily chart. Anyone agree or correcct me.
I would agree, but both pairs are highly correlated with the DJIA. And since the Dow Jones is at all-time highs, you could see both cross pairs hit the ceiling very soon.
I am addicted to chaos. That's why I trade forex.
  • #4,309
  • Edited 8:47pm May 7, 2007 8:21pm | Edited 8:47pm
If this EUR/JPY pull back continue, the first support level hit would be 162.40, the next is 159.60. After this, we move all the way up again to 167 level.

Refer to: http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...298752925.html
  • #4,310
  • May 7, 2007 10:44pm May 7, 2007 10:44pm
Quoting trader8686
If this EUR/JPY pull back continue, the first support level hit would be 162.40, the next is 159.60. After this, we move all the way up again to 167 level.
If this is a top (which it hasn't confirmed to me yet), be sure to check your fibos too.

I don't play the E/Y but if I did, I would be entering a long position now (because it is testing the lower trendline) with a TP at the upper trendline. And I would put a SL & reverse short order under the trendline & TPs at the fibos.
  • #4,311
  • May 8, 2007 3:13am May 8, 2007 3:13am

I am very cagey about this pair at the moment because of the research that trader8686 has done and this: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=28649

It's quite OK by me for the respondents to get cross with the analyst for writing that article, but anyone can see that the rise of this pair is faltering on hourly and daily charts and the general opinion of more experienced traders than I is that things are going to get choppy.

Not such an easy ride anymore.

Gone to a better place
  • #4,312
  • May 8, 2007 4:21am May 8, 2007 4:21am
Quoting Al_Have1
If this is a top (which it hasn't confirmed to me yet), be sure to check your fibos too.

I don't play the E/Y but if I did, I would be entering a long position now (because it is testing the lower trendline) with a TP at the upper trendline. And I would put a SL & reverse short order under the trendline & TPs at the fibos.
When you said: If "this is a top" (which it hasn't confirmed to me yet), be sure to check your fibos too. What is the top you are implying?
  • #4,313
  • May 8, 2007 6:22am May 8, 2007 6:22am
Should we start to consider shorting aggressively or still longs are favoured - i.e.buy on dips...what are your opinion guys?

Cesarnc, I miss your smart insights

07:18EU'S STEINBRUECK SAYS YEN FX RATE SHOULD TAKE ACOUNT OF JAPAN ECON RECOVERY
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,314
  • May 8, 2007 6:36am May 8, 2007 6:36am
Think it may be time for some bottom feeding here. Just hit a minor trendline for a long here at 238.45. Will take it with a relatively minor SL for this pair.
LETS PLAY HOCKEY!
  • #4,315
  • May 8, 2007 6:38am May 8, 2007 6:38am
Quoting gagiul
Should we start to consider shorting aggressively or still longs are favoured - i.e.buy on dips...what are your opinion guys?

Cesarnc, I miss your smart insights

07:18EU'S STEINBRUECK SAYS YEN FX RATE SHOULD TAKE ACOUNT OF JAPAN ECON RECOVERY

These kind of comments usually provides good bottoms to fish. But I'm cautious today, because EURJPY exits are calling the shots today.... I'm off the carry trades until find the bottom here. NExt is 161.80 reported and UJ is likely to print 119.50 today... That would be my GJ entry, as GU is holding well...

Well, let's consider the scenario where Carry trades unwinding failes, buyers get back in and GU start soaring ahead of the rate statement. That would provide killing profits...

But GU is also a damn SOB for DAYS already... (sorry the language)
  • #4,316
  • May 8, 2007 7:02am May 8, 2007 7:02am
Buy order at 238.40 or 50 with SL at 238 ? There is a fib too above 238..

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/947...shot003qx0.jpg
  • #4,317
  • May 8, 2007 7:11am May 8, 2007 7:11am
Quoting Warper
Buy order at 238.40 or 50 with SL at 238 ? There is a fib too above 238..
Nice chart... I jumped in at 238.60 and will add at 238.14 (this is GU 1.9926x UJ 119.50 if goes down there).

SL 237.50 on both.

1st TP 239.34, pivot as guideline... May jump out before on discretion.
  • #4,318
  • May 8, 2007 7:34am May 8, 2007 7:34am
Quoting trader8686
When you said: If "this is a top" (which it hasn't confirmed to me yet), be sure to check your fibos too. What is the top you are implying?
The top of the trend run. The trend is very clear on the chart (I like 4h) and it has since broken the lower trendline which would put me in a short position with TPs at the fibos. 1st stop: 160.54
  • #4,319
  • May 8, 2007 7:43am May 8, 2007 7:43am
Long here at 238.30

Buy limit orders set at 236.75 and 235.75

No stop loss on this pair By fri morn all loss on this pair will be green and if not I'll hold till green this pair has not seen it's top I'm holding for Minimum 241.50
  • #4,320
  • May 8, 2007 7:49am May 8, 2007 7:49am
Buy at 239.026 and 235.826 cause I still strongly believe carry trade will still go on.
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