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The Swamp

  • #107,261
  • Edited 9:50am Mar 3, 2023 9:37am | Edited 9:50am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I started to short on this bounce 1.0611 .1.0606.... lets see....stop loss at the high of the day if the mini bearish trend reverses.
bulls still hold H1 atm.... not sure about my shorting may work...it is testing H1..
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  • #107,262
  • Mar 3, 2023 9:38am Mar 3, 2023 9:38am
The smaller sma are above the 50% marks. If that swaps below. That should be bearish. The next h closes a 6h. The 6h is at 1.0605.3.
The 50% mark to me is between 2 significant points. That's why the sma's went there.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,263
  • Mar 3, 2023 9:57am Mar 3, 2023 9:57am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I started to short on this bounce 1.0611 .1.0606.... lets see....stop loss at the high of the day if the mini bearish trend reverses.
booked lunch money... will short again if bears can take over H1 trend..
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  • #107,264
  • Mar 3, 2023 10:01am Mar 3, 2023 10:01am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} booked lunch money {image}
130$ for lunch... talk about inflation
Price = the amount a greater fool is willing to pay!
  • #107,265
  • Mar 3, 2023 10:10am Mar 3, 2023 10:10am
EU and usd are stuck. eu range 1.07/1.0518 ish..center about 1.0609..
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  • #107,266
  • Mar 3, 2023 10:22am Mar 3, 2023 10:22am
Quoting gatorinla
The smaller sma are above the 50% marks. If that swaps below. That should be bearish. The next h closes a 6h. The 6h is at 1.0605.3. The 50% mark to me is between 2 significant points. That's why the sma's went there. {image}
pa closed below the 6h.. It may test 1.0574 again. 1.0574 support. To break it with closes needed. PA needs to equalize. Range

If eu runs to 1.0519/15 whenever. For the eu drop lower, the usd 105.27 has to below that pa (usd pa climbing North). Or the eu at 1.0518 ish will likely bounce (usd headed South).

EU pa is caught between the year close 1.07, and the week S at 1.0518 (also a Fib at 1.0515). These are large places.. They take time to break. Ranges form meanwhile
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  • #107,267
  • Mar 3, 2023 10:39am Mar 3, 2023 10:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} pa closed below the 6h.. It may test 1.0574 again. 1.0574 support. To break it with closes needed. PA needs to equalize. Range If eu runs to 1.0519/15 whenever. For the eu drop lower, the usd 105.27 has to below that pa (usd pa climbing North). Or the eu at 1.0518 ish will likely bounce (usd headed South). EU pa is caught between the year close 1.07, and the week S at 1.0518 (also a Fib at 1.0515). These are large places.. They take time to break. Ranges form meanwhile {image}
Shorted again at 1.0609
  • #107,268
  • Mar 3, 2023 11:19am Mar 3, 2023 11:19am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Shorted again at 1.0609
added a few.. 1.0612 to 1.0618..pending more all the way to 1.0628.. stop loss 1.0638.
  • #107,269
  • Mar 3, 2023 11:56am Mar 3, 2023 11:56am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} added a few.. 1.0612 to 1.0618..pending more all the way to 1.0628.. stop loss 1.0638.
Friday evening there is always unidirectional moves as liquiditity fades and traders worry about holding over weekend.
  • #107,270
  • Edited 1:24pm Mar 3, 2023 1:05pm | Edited 1:24pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Shorted again at 1.0609
It looks rudderless in the center at 1.0609. The 12h, 8h, 6h, 4h, ect are all within 14 pips apart. The day 20sma at 0661. center to 1.0517 week 20sma at *1.0589
Month to week center *1.0660
The day 1.0661 and month/week center have confluence at 1.0660/61.

Center to center *1.0589/*1.0660 at **1.0625. **1.0625 area has some center confluence. Orbit where *gravity equalizes.
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  • #107,271
  • Mar 3, 2023 1:38pm Mar 3, 2023 1:38pm
month week day. The day is dead center between the month and week. To have a decent trend. The day needs to move below the week. Or vice verse with week over the month and day above those. The day will be the first to show movement.
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  • #107,272
  • Mar 3, 2023 1:42pm Mar 3, 2023 1:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
month week day. The day is dead center between the month and week. To have a decent trend. The day needs to move below the week. Or vice verse with week over the month and day above those. The day will be the first to show movement. {image}
The same chart with a Fib added.. Like when you go to Disneyworld. (pre smartphone days) The map says, "You are here". The Magic Kingdom is the center.
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  • #107,273
  • Mar 3, 2023 1:55pm Mar 3, 2023 1:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Month to week center *1.0660 The day 1.0661 and month/week center have confluence at 1.0660/61. Center to center *1.0589/*1.0660 at **1.0625. **1.0625 area has some center confluence. Orbit where *gravity equalizes.
Possible short If 1.0660/61 holds.
4h is magenta, 1h yellow

The day ma is between those 2 forces in orbit.

The smaller ma Are some what indicative. They are north of the 6h atm.
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  • #107,274
  • Mar 3, 2023 2:49pm Mar 3, 2023 2:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It looks rudderless in the center at 1.0609. The 12h, 8h, 6h, 4h, ect are all within 14 pips apart. The day 20sma at 0661. center to 1.0517 week 20sma at *1.0589 Month to week center *1.0660 The day 1.0661 and month/week center have confluence at 1.0660/61. Center to center *1.0589/*1.0660 at **1.0625. **1.0625 area has some center confluence. Orbit where *gravity equalizes.
Thanks. I didn't close my shorts at 1.0638 since I see there is no volatility..... either bears or bulls have any strength ..... just a ranging market... my shorts average around 1.0615.. I see I can make some later...
  • #107,275
  • Mar 3, 2023 6:43pm Mar 3, 2023 6:43pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Thanks. I didn't close my shorts at 1.0638 since I see there is no volatility..... either bears or bulls have any strength ..... just a ranging market... my shorts average around 1.0615.. I see I can make some later...
When it held above 0625. That may help the attraction to 0661..From there?, I figured breaking 1.0700 would force it to the week's 10518ish. It hasn't yet. The 200 ema day didnt allow it. I'm hoping 1.066xx does it next time, backed by 1.07.. But hope is a fool's game. If it starts a path above 1.07.. I have to think its going to 1.0802. 1.0802 or 1.0518 (whatever the week 20 sma is).. 1.0802 has 1.0835 backing it. 1.066x has 1.07 backing it. 1.0518 has 1.0515 back it. Pa back below 1.0574 closed, should be bearish if before Tuesday. Tuesday closing below it may be bearish.

I hold out for a long 1.0518/15,, maybe some slip. If it starts closing above 1.0518 dynamic.
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  • #107,276
  • Mar 4, 2023 2:41am Mar 4, 2023 2:41am
Took a couple of small hits on cable and eur shorts and then just kept away, nothing clear for me (no powder necessary lol)...
EJ hit my target yesterday but I actually closed manually Thursday so I left profit on the table.

I have a long setup for eur now, so we may well see 1.0665 1.0685 area

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Never say never.
  • #107,277
  • Mar 4, 2023 7:38am Mar 4, 2023 7:38am
Quoting razldazl
Took a couple of small hits on cable and eur shorts and then just kept away, nothing clear for me (no powder necessary lol)... EJ hit my target yesterday but I actually closed manually Thursday so I left profit on the table. I have a long setup for eur now, so we may well see 1.0665 1.0685 area {image}
Thinking the same for 35 pips, or 70 pips. 1.066x or 1.07. I dont beyond that without breaking 1.07 and closing. I see an attraction to 1.0518, or 1.0802. I stick with 1.0518 because of 1.07. If pa is above 1.07, I loose that reason. At 1.0518 the attraction to 1.0802 dynamic will change it. But the attraction may pull it back to 1.07 again.
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  • #107,278
  • Mar 4, 2023 8:40am Mar 4, 2023 8:40am
White represents the month sma. The closest i can get for a week, on a month chart. Is a 5 sma its not perfect for a week (magenta). But it gives some perspective.

I think pa is at a large crossroads. To go North it needs to take 1.07, followed by 1.0802. Like in this chart. Once it cleared all of them. It went up 1100 pips.

But if it can not clear 1.07, and 1.08. It has the chance to slip below the surf.

I dont have anything on this chart to represent a day. What's happening currently on the day is 1.0661. Bulls need to take it before 1.07 or 1.0802. If not, pa may not reach those. PA at the week lows is testing the day 200 and the week 20sma. A bounce is normal if bullish for sure. A bounce is normal even if it would break down eventually. The first minor levels a bounce would reach below current pa (the smaller ma). The next level to reach is a day. It has tested the day a few times and failed. When the market opens that day will be lower than Friday's close. The first levels to be tested next week will be the day, or the 12h. The day will be less than 1.0661, the 12h slightly less than 1.0617. Between those 2 is about 43 pips. 43 pips above 1.0661 (-slight trajectory drop) is about 1.07. 43 pips below 1.0617, is about 1.0574. Either of these 2 have S/R tendencies. See past pa. Either of them lost could start a run. Those are micro levels pointing to larger ones.. About the same as 1.0802 and 1.0518 on a little bigger scale showing 1.0661. So micro wise 1.0638 acting as R could mean something to the day and 12h. Like 1.0661 can. As random as things appear. They have a connection. Closing below 1.0617 may lead to closing below 1.0609 to test 1.0574 etc.

In that perspective the first level bulls need is 1.0638. If below 1.0617 (12h) thats a little weakness. Strength is above 1.0638, and followed be 1.0661+ 1.07 etc,
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  • #107,279
  • Mar 4, 2023 8:46am Mar 4, 2023 8:46am
Quoting gatorinla
The next level to reach is a day. It has tested the day a few times and failed. When the market opens that day will be lower than Friday's close. The first levels to be tested next week will be the day, or the 12h. The day will be less than 1.0661, the 12h slightly less than 1.0617. Between those 2 is about 43 pips. 43 pips above 1.0661 (-slight trajectory drop) is about 1.07. 43 pips below 1.0617, is about 1.0574. Either of these 2 have S/R tendencies. See past pa. Either of them lost could start a run. Those are micro levels pointing to...
This was the day failing the white line. I cant say that will continue. It may pop to the moon. If it can not take 1.0638. That not a moon pop sign. Bulls need a launch. Not taking 1.0638 and falling below 1.0617 is not a good bull sign. See who shows up.
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  • #107,280
  • Mar 4, 2023 8:52am Mar 4, 2023 8:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} This was the day failing the white line. I cant say that will continue. It may pop to the moon. If it can not take 1.0638. That not a moon pop sign. Bulls need a launch. Not taking 1.0638 and falling below 1.0617 is not a good bull sign. See who shows up. {image}
The week North of it 20sma. The bull side untested.
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