Trend following system is dead

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that's very true for a trend trader..... nothing matters but the trend, if any......

think of the period of time between september 1st 2022 and febuary 1st 2023.....

imagine how many supply and demand zones must have existed on all time frames during that period...... how many support and resistances..... how many over bought over sold...... how many times rsi crossing 50...... cci crossing 0....... qqe crossing 50....... on and on and on......

on all timeframes...... on all pairs.....

in 10 seconds metatrader can give us the exact count of each...... on every pair...... along with the activity per session, per day, per hour and on and on again....
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seems like a lot of useful information...... at least in my mind it is......

let's forget all that for a second......

imagine 24 of us would each take an hour of the day to place a trade during the period mentioned above...... peyton would let everyone chose first......does it really matter what hour she gets..... not at all..... in those 82 days, there might be a couple hundred dollars difference between us all at most.......

and what's a couple hundred bucks between trend trading friends.......h
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I’ve been trying to figure out what the dots are in the sub window. Is that your peyton indicator? I assume it’s private, but is it measuring trend? MA angle, or did you develop different metrics?

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hey jonny...... i don't have anything private, and will always supply the mq4 ..... there are 3 or 4 versions of that.... here are 2 posted in another thread.....

the one saying symbol will allow you to see a different symbols results...... such as typing in EURUSD and placing it on the eurcad's chart, you can compare.....
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there might be some things which require too many special icustoms to post....... other than that, it's an open book......h
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Yes, I strongly agree with your statement because indeed people don’t the trend rather they follow their mind, which is causing great loss. Traders should focus on those indicators that serve them with trend-centric ideas like moving average and bollinger bands.

.. nearly impossible trend trade mission. But i see a little light is possible. Message will explode in 5 seconds.

Mine’s just exploded as this thread is clearly for phishing commercial members. I’m outta here. FF clean it up

edit: I don’t mean you MichaelSch

Yes that certainly makes sense,
i think that is a snippet that says if bar is blue, then buy. Maybe intended to mean bar being blue is the only condition given to buy?

So, does payton scan all charts for 4 vertical blue squares and buys/sells? She might not be around to watch the chart or to see when the opposite signal arrives. What are the exit rules then?
I know you don't use SL and assume she doesn't either. Given oanda's individually calculated margin requirements, the effective margin is 1:12 if all 28 pairs are entered. Anyway, Low margin, no SL, multiple pairs....how long has payton's chart taken to reach it's current status?
I do know you trade only swap positive pairs in case of a long haul. Do you/her get tempted to add more at the next color change or once you are in with one position, you hold on until it comes back?

Kinda cool how a thread titled Trend following system is dead can be used to discuss how to trade trends.

It is impossible for many traders because they self sabotage themselves by looking for patterns that don’t exist.

Do not show me a hindsight chart with “look how easy it is”, instead show a live trade call in real time.
Thats actually hard in real time.

There are thousands of indicators and (after) price has already made its trend move, at least one of those thousands of indicators will model that movement perfectly. The question is, which one of those thousands of indicators will model the price (before) price has made it's trend move.

LOL... You post this with friendly reminder do not post more charts that point out it is possible?

Beside I want not become a signal service my charts are clear. It is hard if you not can trade chart formations right and must be practice. What is the point you see the formation. It takes time and must be visible first. If you predict a formation that fast after a line break, sorry you predict it only. Wait more and see if you have a formation. Sorry it is basic stuff and often that make most trouble.

Funny, I just wrote some things about self sabotage:

I've been thinking about some areas of trading off and on for the last few weeks that don't seem to be talked about much and wondering if writing about these things I've gone through would help anyone else. Hopefully the two things I write about below will not just entertain, but will help you move more quickly through your successful trading journey.

My lowest point in trading was when I didn't follow the rules of an ea. I had made over $20k the first day using it and I went against the rules and lost the $20,000 plus $140,000...real $. It's on my tax return for 2009. My wife and I had to dip into our home equity line. I mention my wife because she was sitting there with me when this happened...somebody was being a little too cocky.

The second lowest point was believing someone, who I still consider a friend to this day, who told me that I could trust the guy he referred me to on investing in a start up that was using this guy's trading system. Lost $250,000...real $, it's also on my tax returns. I don't know if his trading system worked or not...the money disappeared before we got to that point. Another time we had to dip into the home equity line. (We soon closed the home equity line because we determined it was a danger to our future financial well-being.)

The biggest thing I've been forced to learn is to NEVER let a loss become shame. Stay with me while I explain this.

This realization of what shame did to me was probably my biggest leap in maturity as a person, as a husband, as a father, as a business owner and as a trader...and, not so surprisingly, I'm so stubborn and dense that I only figured this out a few years ago.

When I had losses, not just in trading, but in life/business, I would get so upset about it, so embarrassed (even though no one else even knew I was embarrassed), and then I would get angry which led to feeling ashamed of myself and getting stuck in that mode. Feeling upset is fine for a little while and being embarrassed about it when you're the only one who knows you feel embarrassed is just stupid, but allowing a loss to make you feel ashamed is VERY damaging.

Feeling ashamed shows in your face and controls your actions. It destroys your ability to bounce back. It destroys people around you. It destroys your ability to think straight and makes it difficult to let go of the loss and move on to the next "one good trade" or decision you need to make. It slows your progress and growth. It's debilitating to the point of mental paralysis. It disqualifies you from being a great trader.

NEVER allow a loss to make you feel ashamed.

It took me a long time in life to get to this place.

Now, when I have a loss, I remind myself of a saying I heard: "Don't be angry at or about the game. Just be happy you got to play."

When I heard that the first time and every time I say it to myself, it's like a light switch in my brain that releases the loss and allows me to move on quickly.

Thought 2: The Loneliness of Trading

I think trading is one of the loneliest things to try to do. There's no mom or dad or guru or friend to do it with. Not that people aren't around. My office is in the loft and my wife is typically home with me, but it's still lonely for me as a trader. I mentored someone in the office last year from 2:30am to 11am, five days a week for four months and it was still lonely. (Don't ask, nope, not doing that again.) We can go on a trading forum and "interact" with other traders. There's a lot of that going on. Millions of wanna-be traders and a few successful traders are in forums like this one, in trading rooms, on discord, in prop firm rooms, guru rooms, mentoring rooms, etc, but there's still that trader loneliness. I think loneliness in trading may be that last hurdle causing a lot of people to not make it as a trader.

Trader loneliness is an emotional part of trading that's beyond mental.

Why is this? I don't know all the answers on this one. We all start out running from strategy to strategy and "guru" to "guru" thinking this one didn't work for the week I tried it, but the next one will. This goes on for a while. It was fourteen years of this for me and then there's the "fourteen year sudden" realization that nothing anyone else is doing works...for me. It seems to work great for the guru. Why doesn't it work great for me? During this step in a trader's progress one starts to understand that each of us have things that we can see on a chart or that we can grasp about fundamentals and there are things our minds will never grasp no matter how many times a guy name Ray says, "It's simple." Things on a guru's chart are typically historical after the fact trades that make indicators look like they work great and make you think trading this system is easy, but then we look at a live chart and the brain just freezes and looks at that dark lonely right side of the chart called THE FUTURE and wants to take that leap and suddenly that same brain screams, "NO ONE WILL BE WITH ME INTO THAT UNKNOWN!".

No one does things how I do them, no one sees things how I see them. Therefore no one can do it for me, NO ONE CAN BE IN MY BRAIN DOING THIS ACT that is risky, dangerous, mystifying and so unknown...jumping off the last candle cliff into the right side of the chart. This truly IS the definition of trader loneliness to me. No one gets it. No one can get it. It's just me against the future, that next millisecond!

That realization that NO ONE IS ABLE TO BABYSIT MY BRAIN AND PUSH THE BUTTON FROM IN THERE FOR OR WITH ME is at the same time terrifying and freeing.

It's lonely as a trader. There's nothing you can do to change this. Being in this forum or room won't change it. Having a "guru" won't change it. Having another trader with you won't change it. Your wife being around won't change it. Being alone in a room won't change it (lol).

The closest you can get to making it better is taking everything you yourself can "see", can understand and putting it all on a chart. Trade that stuff on your chart for months. Figure out what doesn't help you. Figure out how to simplify it. Figure out what you're missing and find it and then, again, trade what you can "see" for months until you have your own rendition, your own system, your own written rules of what will help you take that leap off that last candle cliff into the right side of the chart. That truly is the nearest a trader can get to shedding some light on their loneliness of trading into that next millisecond called the future.

I could write a lot here but I won't.

Only to say this .....

Take all of that and now make a list of all the Life lessons you think of and can observe about what you've experienced and learned. This is not to be a repeat of what you wrote but a more targeted evaluation and review that will show you that Life lessons and trading lessons are in fact the same. Why do this? Real learning MUST cross borders and become seamless juxtapositions, yes pluralized, using many contexts. People always assume they can trade because they have learned but putting everything on a chart is not a solution or reflecting this. So well done for being open with yourself. Creating a schematic is the only way to 'remember' everything.


Peter

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I found putting something on to watch that I find funny to laugh at dulls and cures any loneliness. But it must be something I've seen before but not recently otherwise I remember it too well and it's not so funny. While some may tinker or tweak templates or charts etc, boredom is a sign of tedious thinking. So laughing increases blood pumping etc and helps you feel good. So your thinking is ready to act on trades etc etc.

Peter

Yes, I watch Dry Bar comedy on youtube. This guy was next up just before trading this morning:

If it's something you've seen before then fine. If it's new to you then you'll have the tendency to lose focus on trading. That's how the mind likes it.

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hey ot....... thanks for the very good questions...... posts like yours here are similar to that long dead vegas thread......

what chart are you refering to,,,,,,

i'll answer your questions later today.....h

Thanks. I have put all my energy on automated trading, however, I have always wanted to manual trade on the side as I do like charts and indys and simple, consistent and relaxed systems. This one seems to fit the bill, so I like to learn more about it.
Sorry, I didn't mean chart. I meant her account statement in post #114. To be honest, I am looking for % gain per month as a benchmark to see if I can keep up.

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her % gain would be difficult to say...... because if she makes 2000, i deposit 2000..... which lowers her % gain...... i feel comfortable saying she will make 2000 this month...... maybe 20%..... will let you know in 30 days.....

i think that is a snippet that says if bar is blue, then buy. Maybe intended to mean bar being blue is the only condition given to buy?

no.... it is not the only condition..... imagine having that same indicator in multi time frame fashion on a 30 minute chart..... if the weekly, daily and 240 agree, the 30 has higher odds of success...... there is more....
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does payton scan all charts for 4 vertical blue squares and buys/sells?

no..... scanning indicators do all the real work..... alerts and push notifications let us know what they find with trade suggestions.....
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She might not be around to watch the chart or to see when the opposite signal arrives. What are the exit rules then?

yes..... true...... 90% of her trades exit when hitting their profit targets...... typically targets are far less than daily atr.....
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I know you don't use SL and assume she doesn't either.

true...... our lot size is ridiculously small compared to account size.....
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the effective margin is 1:12 if all 28 pairs are entered

all pairs are not entered ..... we usually go heavy on the low margin required pairs like, audusd and nzdusd.... and typically avoid high margin required like the gbp crosses..... doing so almost doubles your effective leverage.....
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Do you/her get tempted to add more at the next color change or once you are in with one position, you hold on until it comes back?

temptation is not needed..... without a doubt we add..... both when the trade is going with us and against us...... there is concrete proof that is a viable strategy.....
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bottom line.... zigzag......h