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The Swamp

  • #107,201
  • Mar 2, 2023 2:09am Mar 2, 2023 2:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the day now at 0674. 12h at 0627
0626
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,202
  • Mar 2, 2023 2:12am Mar 2, 2023 2:12am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} I bought the dip on the equity puke at 845est... Long 1.0647 SL 1.0638 It's really a proxy for the dxy at 104.58... or that's how I see it anyhow . 10Y futs breaking out over 4%.... I'm firmly fading it...
in 2hs closing below 0626 may be against you. Or it can support now. -1.0548 close today is probably inline to test 1.0515 this week. Pa never reached the attractant at 1.05150. Pa was blocked from reaching 1.0515 by the day 200. I cant say if it will break 1.0515 with a week close. If it did, I posted older times when it did yesterday.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,203
  • Mar 2, 2023 2:19am Mar 2, 2023 2:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 0626
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,204
  • Mar 2, 2023 2:26am Mar 2, 2023 2:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} in 2hs closing below 0626 may be against you. Or it can support now. -1.0548 close today is probably inline to test 1.0515 this week. Pa never reached the attractant at 1.05150. Pa was blocked from reaching 1.0515 by the day 200. I cant say if it will break 1.0515 with a week close. If it did, I posted older times when it did yesterday.
1.0626 s, *1.0548, *1.0534 1.0515.
*Can drop slightly.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,205
  • Mar 2, 2023 2:28am Mar 2, 2023 2:28am
It says 1.0519 here. It may be a little lower. It was 0615 last week. PA should be attracted to it. This week reaching it is lower than last week. Closing this week below is not so bullish. It could also support after reaching. If so, bulls want it to close above 1.07.. At hand atm is close in 1.5 hs being -+ 0626. PA still closed yesterday below 1.07 and 1.068x. Today its 0672, PA is below it now.
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1.0626 s, *1.0548, *1.0534 1.0515. *Can drop slightly. {image} {image}
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,206
  • Mar 2, 2023 2:37am Mar 2, 2023 2:37am
Quoting gatorinla
It says 1.0519 here. It may be a little lower. It was 0615 last week. PA should be attracted to it. This week reaching it is lower than last week. Closing this week below is not so bullish. It could also support after reaching. If so, bulls want it to close above 1.07.. At hand atm is close in 1.5 hs being -+ 0626. PA still closed yesterday below 1.07 and 1.068x. Today its 0672, PA is below it now. {quote}{image}
Its a good day to get screwed in either direction. PA is in the blender 1.0515/1.07
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Quoting gatorinla
While pa is deciding on a direction. This area may range a while. 1.07-1.052 is about 180 pips apart.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,207
  • Mar 2, 2023 2:39am Mar 2, 2023 2:39am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} I bought the dip on the equity puke at 845est... Long 1.0647 SL 1.0638 It's really a proxy for the dxy at 104.58... or that's how I see it anyhow . 10Y futs breaking out over 4%.... I'm firmly fading it...
I also went long this morning, my stop was below yours at 1.0631 s/o-8 and took a jappy short which I got stopped out -10 before it turned around. My timing was off!
Jpy strength and EUR weakness I have sold eurjpy on the break of a 30 min bearish outside bar from the top, targeting 144.60 area. I have my stop at be now.
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Never say never.
  • #107,208
  • Mar 2, 2023 2:53am Mar 2, 2023 2:53am
Quoting gatorinla
I got pendings in the box. ADR is spent. Back to bed. {image}
i brought stops to 1.0666
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,209
  • Mar 2, 2023 3:19am Mar 2, 2023 3:19am
ATM its running from 1.0626. 40 min left.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,210
  • Mar 2, 2023 3:29am Mar 2, 2023 3:29am
Quoting gatorinla
ATM its running from 1.0626. 40 min left. {image}
9 min later (12 min on screenshot)

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,211
  • Mar 2, 2023 3:36am Mar 2, 2023 3:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 9 min later (12 min on screenshot) {image}
-1.0620 would capture the 30 min. It may be more aggressive with a close below 0620
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,212
  • Mar 2, 2023 3:46am Mar 2, 2023 3:46am
1.0626 dropped some.. It needs to be below 1.0625.x,,
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,213
  • Mar 2, 2023 3:51am Mar 2, 2023 3:51am
Oh this isn't a call for a ginormic drop today. PA has already moved 40 pips of atr. The 6h has some support at 1.06,, The 8h at 0618 and 1.0607. The time to take this trade was yesterday. Ones hope is for 1.0626 to start resisting. That may be a setup for a new day. 1.0574 is supportive. A bear hopes pa will close today below 0574.9. Hope is a terrible thing. It keeps people holding trades, they know they should close.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,214
  • Edited 4:17am Mar 2, 2023 4:06am | Edited 4:17am
The year at 1.07/1.0964 depending on what close you take. Is larger than the week at 1.0515. The day now at 1.0674 is smaller than the week. The 12h at 1.0625 (now 1.0623) smaller than the day and week.

Here is the 8h and 1.0618 and 1.07..A game of inches.

But the Achilles heel is the attraction to 1.0515.
If your looking at a chart smaller. Give a stronger pull to 1.0515 the bennifit of doubt. Its the "anti long" above it this close. At least whilw below 1.07..
If pa is unable to close a week below 1.0515. Then a long to 1.07 is likely..

There are large attractants above 1.07 also.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,215
  • Mar 2, 2023 4:09am Mar 2, 2023 4:09am
Quoting gatorinla
Oh this isn't a call for a ginormic drop today. PA has already moved 40 pips of atr. The 6h has some support at 1.06,, The 8h at 0618 and 1.0607. The time to take this trade was yesterday. Ones hope is for 1.0626 to start resisting. That may be a setup for a new day. 1.0574 is supportive. A bear hopes pa will close today below 0574.9. Hope is a terrible thing. It keeps people holding trades, they know they should close.
1.0623
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,216
  • Edited 4:43am Mar 2, 2023 4:23am | Edited 4:43am
Quoting gatorinla
Give a stronger pull to 1.0515 the benefit of doubt. Its the "anti long" above it this close. At least while below 1.07.. If pa is unable to close a week below 1.0515. Then a long to 1.07 is likely.. There are large attractants above 1.07 also. {image}
1.0803 may attract if pa stalls and starts closing above 1.07.. At 1.0515 this may happen. Once to 1.0515 (dynamic) PA may screw the downtrend. If pa is unable to close below, and gives back 1.07..
If Pa crosses and starts closing above 1.0803 (dynamic) An attraction to 1.1243 may occur. It may be attracted to 1.1543..I think that was Citi's target. 1.15. Above the algo at 1.1186.

One has to have a plan in case the opposite of your trading plan dominates. I think PA is bearish. I think the usd is heading back to the last century usd levels. But if pa stalls. The attractants need to be considered. PA tends to go back to the 20sma regardless. ATm the week is 1.0515, the month 1.0803..ATm between those 2 is 1.0659
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,217
  • Mar 2, 2023 4:56am Mar 2, 2023 4:56am
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0614
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  • #107,218
  • Mar 2, 2023 4:58am Mar 2, 2023 4:58am
Quoting gatorinla
{image} 0614
6h 0601
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,219
  • Mar 2, 2023 5:01am Mar 2, 2023 5:01am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 6h 0601 {image}
8H close is 7am est 1.0607. 6h 9 am est
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,220
  • Mar 2, 2023 5:57am Mar 2, 2023 5:57am
Quoting razldazl
{quote} I also went long this morning, my stop was below yours at 1.0631 s/o-8 and took a jappy short which I got stopped out -10 before it turned around. My timing was off! Jpy strength and EUR weakness I have sold eurjpy on the break of a 30 min bearish outside bar from the top, targeting 144.60 area. I have my stop at be now. {image}
Yeah I took my s/o too
It's not true according to the data, but it definitely "feels" like those triggers during the pac-asian sessions get stopped more than most.
Still seems to me the dxy upside is limited to 106.2x(if that)...

I'm holding some chf/jpy shorts in my shorter term portfolio. Pretty light right now tbh.... I need to get more risk on the table at these levels.
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