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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #8,841
  • Feb 25, 2023 9:10pm Feb 25, 2023 9:10pm
Quoting Nala66
I get a little trade shy at this stage because it is Friday and late. Looking at the weekly then I see price is still above the C point but is testing it. {image} See what Monday brings. Off to bed for me though... Have a good weekend
Hi Mr. Alan, Hope you have a nice sunday!

Below chart is my practice analysis of Weekly chart.
At previous, we have a big down trend. Then we have the Reg DIV send price back to cross the EMA , and it did.
Then price also found the Support. But when price try to make HH, there is a 50% resistend level of ABCD and price failed 2 times to make HH to crossed 50% level.

Right now the price have closed under the EMA26 and also break the BULL SUPPORT ( that mean this bull support had disable ).

So the conclusion is the price move down have higher possible than move up on next week.

Could you advise your opinion!

Thank you!
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  • #8,842
  • Feb 25, 2023 10:05pm Feb 25, 2023 10:05pm
Quoting Sol72
Hello Allan! I had problems with the entry: if you wait for the divergence to form, then the entry at the close is too late. Entry before the formation of a divergence from the market - may be erroneous. How to solve this problem?
When looking for a div forming at a 1-hour ZOO a signal on the lower time frames will present itself. We are taking the inference from the 1 hour but entering on the much lower time frames. This will most likely get us in on the wick or tail of the 1-hour bar.

I don't know this, but I think people are simply fearful of taking a chance and try to over think the situations. We all get caught out with wrong choices from time to time the important thing is what we do about it when we do make a wrong choice. This is where the concepts of psychology and logic clash and I would always be on the side of logic because this is something I have complete control over. Psychology is about thinking trades will do this or that and we can easily convince ourselves we are right so much so that many bet the farm on it.

I study the charts prior to trading and attempt to determine where the price is heading based upon the averages. Then, at the appropriate time, I take the signal to take me in that direction. I can determine my target price, say 60 pips, thus telling me my stop should be 30 pips. Doing the math to make this a 2% win or a 1% loss. This is all down to logic, no emotion in it at all.

Am I going to lose 1%? Not at all. There is no way I will let the market go 30 pips against me without taking action to stop it, so I end up losing far less by bailing out. I know this can easily be made up with subsequent trades. It is not so much a hole as it is a little dent.

On the flip side there is also no way I am going to let the market run 60 pips in my favor without doing something about that also. By adding to a winning position, we are making the safest of all trades and compounding our profits. Sure, we can get stopped out of these also, but we have nothing to lose and the world to gain.

By doing this we are logically keeping the math on our side and even a bad trader can stay the course for a very long time.

Unfortunately, many traders do exactly the opposite and THINK they can beat the market with some hair brained notion it will turn in the favor. They dig the hole deeper and deeper always expecting to see light in the bottom of it as they break through to the other side of the planet. Sure, this can work but it takes a huge amount of funding to support it, not to mention the amount of time wasted where profits could have been accumulated.

This is why trading is not just a matter of pushing a button, we need all the logical elements in place...
1) Timing
2) Target
3) Stop
4) Money Management
5) Trade management.

We need a plan. This plan is based upon little more than progression v's regression. We are fine taking two steps forwards and one step backwards providing the backstep does not exceed the sum of progression. By breaking down the long-term targets into bite size pieces we can set goals and determine the fiscal structure to get us from A to B and eventually to Z, this is going to be different for everyone because there are many variables such as age, startup capital, time to trade and so on.

Getting back to the actual trade though. We have to prepare for it in advance. It is not wise to take trades on the fly and attempt to gamble the way to Z.

Enough rambling
  • #8,843
  • Feb 25, 2023 10:12pm Feb 25, 2023 10:12pm
Quoting harry888
{quote} Hi Mr. Alan, Hope you have a nice sunday! Below chart is my practice analysis of Weekly chart. At previous, we have a big down trend. Then we have the Reg DIV send price back to cross the EMA , and it did. Then price also found the Support. But when price try to make HH, there is a 50% resistend level of ABCD and price failed 2 times to make HH to crossed 50% level. Right now the price have closed under the EMA26 and also break the BULL SUPPORT ( that mean this bull support had disable ). So the conclusion is the price move down have higher...
Sure.

As long as the price is between the two 50% levels it is ranging.

Therefor it is better to drop to a lower time frame to determine the current direction of the range.

I rarely go much above the 1-hour chart unless there is something blatantly obvious on the 4-hour chart or daily.

Hard to hold our breath for a week!

Keep an eye open for the weekly breaking the C level.

Price may have broken the EMA but the bears have not shown signs of finding support yet.
  • #8,844
  • Feb 26, 2023 3:37am Feb 26, 2023 3:37am
Hi Alan, hope you enjoy your weekend
I found this position quite good to enter a buy order,
But as you can see, the price continue to go down,
please indicate I was wrong in this situation?
Thank you so much
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  • #8,845
  • Feb 26, 2023 2:14pm Feb 26, 2023 2:14pm
Quoting Fiona96
Hi Alan, hope you enjoy your weekend I found this position quite good to enter a buy order, But as you can see, the price continue to go down, please indicate I was wrong in this situation? Thank you so much {image} {image}
Just adding my 2 pence worth. You are missing the EMA swing points to identify possible ZOO areas, ideally showing divergence on the higher TF mainly the H1. You can then drop to the M5 for entry points.
  • #8,846
  • Feb 26, 2023 6:31pm Feb 26, 2023 6:31pm
Quoting Fiona96
Hi Alan, hope you enjoy your weekend I found this position quite good to enter a buy order, But as you can see, the price continue to go down, please indicate I was wrong in this situation? Thank you so much {image} {image}
Set your chart up correctly and you will see an entirely different picture as we are trading below the EMA's

Currently the EMA's are converging so trading now is IFFY

It would seem to me you are believing the oversold nonsense because the RSI is low.

Look carefully at the RSI. The fast is above the waterline but the slow is below, these are all possible sell signals. (Green circled)
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This is not even a trade setup. You have no target, no stop, are you just guessing?

Zoom out to get the big picture and see the target....
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You have to do the work, I cannot do it for you.
  • #8,847
  • Feb 27, 2023 12:41am Feb 27, 2023 12:41am
Good morning.
This is what I see:
1.19134 level, coincides with a 26 EMA change in color level from the beginning of January.
Also coincides with the February 17th low (that reacted faithfully then), to the mentioned EMA level.
1.1915 is a liquidity level, full of stop losses (yummy meat for the Big Boys algos.)
So I will be looking to go short provided anything worthwhile shows up after the news in a couple of hours.
Otherwise, if a clear divergence shows at the mentioned low, I will definitely try a long on a smaller TF.
(please ignore my light blue Heiken Ashi MA, that is just my system). The red EMA is the 26 one.
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  • #8,848
  • Feb 27, 2023 12:54am Feb 27, 2023 12:54am
I haven´t posted on this thread for ages. Still, Nala is on my list of top 5 traders. I have been using his Divergence RSI for years.
It just works.
So thank you Nala.

This is a chart from DT software I use, see the red boxes? The software calculates statistically calculated swings in time and price, where swing changes are "likely" to occur. It is very effective.
As you can see by the last red box it created, we are at the end of the time range and a bit below the price.
Hope this does not come off-topic in relation to this thread. Don´t want to confuse anybody here.
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  • #8,849
  • Feb 27, 2023 4:17am Feb 27, 2023 4:17am
Quoting cuchuflito
I haven´t posted on this thread for ages. Still, Nala is on my list of top 5 traders. I have been using his Divergence RSI for years. It just works. So thank you Nala. This is a chart from DT software I use, see the red boxes? The software calculates statistically calculated swings in time and price, where swing changes are "likely" to occur. It is very effective. As you can see by the last red box it created, we are at the end of the time range and a bit below the price. Hope this does not come off-topic in relation to this thread. Don´t want...
Not at all I enjoy other points of view.

How did you put those moving average crossovers in a separate window.

Could you let us have the script there is something about them I would like to take a look at. Thanks.
  • #8,850
  • Feb 27, 2023 5:39am Feb 27, 2023 5:39am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Not at all I enjoy other points of view. How did you put those moving average crossovers in a separate window. Could you let us have the script there is something about them I would like to take a look at. Thanks.
Hi Allan, did not understand your question:
did you mean the MT5 pic. or the one from Dynamic Trader software? (pink background)
  • #8,851
  • Feb 27, 2023 5:53am Feb 27, 2023 5:53am
Missed that long, was too focused on a potential SR at the 1.1915 level.
The market did create an SR (stop run) right before the final thrust.
Check how well that last box area worked.
I am looking at the opposite box to short, ideally around the EMA 1,2027 level.
Diversion on H and M30 is already showing.(see the pink arrow).
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  • #8,852
  • Feb 27, 2023 8:21pm Feb 27, 2023 8:21pm
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} Hi Allan, did not understand your question: did you mean the MT5 pic. or the one from Dynamic Trader software? (pink background)
Doesn't matter now I have decided to stick with what I do, It is not broken so why try to fix it?

Hope everyone got this yesterday.
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Same old same old really.

Simple rule.... When it fails one side it will test the other.
  • #8,853
  • Feb 27, 2023 8:36pm Feb 27, 2023 8:36pm
Quoting cuchuflito
Missed that long, was too focused on a potential SR at the 1.1915 level. The market did create an SR (stop run) right before the final thrust. Check how well that last box area worked. I am looking at the opposite box to short, ideally around the EMA 1,2027 level. Diversion on H and M30 is already showing.(see the pink arrow). {image}
I see many traders trading like this (Short2027) but I have little faith in so called SR. To me one or the other side has to FIND support, and this becomes a later resistance. This can often be very confusing, so I have ruled it out of my trading regime.

All the time I am trying to make things more and more simple for myself, using as little as possible to get the job done.
  • #8,854
  • Feb 28, 2023 3:46am Feb 28, 2023 3:46am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I see many traders trading like this (Short2027) but I have little faith in so called SR. To me one or the other side has to FIND support, and this becomes a later resistance. This can often be very confusing, so I have ruled it out of my trading regime. All the time I am trying to make things more and more simple for myself, using as little as possible to get the job done.
Hello, Allan! We will find out after the fact that bulls or bears have found support. Are there signs that support is strong or weak and at what level should it be determined?
  • #8,855
  • Feb 28, 2023 4:05am Feb 28, 2023 4:05am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Hope everyone got this yesterday.
Yesterday I bought at the bull support level. I could have earned more, but I fulfilled the plan for the day and ended the auction. Today I tried to buy on divergence twice - I was knocked out with a stop, but this time I ended up with a profit. Many thanks to Allan for your methodology.
And another question: is it worth sticking to the financial plan or should you try to get the most out of the market?
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  • #8,856
  • Feb 28, 2023 5:16am Feb 28, 2023 5:16am
Quoting Sol72
{quote} Hello, Allan! We will find out after the fact that bulls or bears have found support. Are there signs that support is strong or weak and at what level should it be determined?
If we suspect the bulls are trying for support on the hour chart, then we would see an entry for such on the 5 or 1 min to get in.
  • #8,857
  • Feb 28, 2023 5:18am Feb 28, 2023 5:18am
Quoting Sol72
{quote} Yesterday I bought at the bull support level. I could have earned more, but I fulfilled the plan for the day and ended the auction. Today I tried to buy on divergence twice - I was knocked out with a stop, but this time I ended up with a profit. Many thanks to Allan for your methodology. And another question: is it worth sticking to the financial plan or should you try to get the most out of the market? {image} {image}
Definitely try to get the most out of the market if you have the time and inclination to do so.

But always remember to guard the risk by moving the stop accordingly.

Price generally gets a move on after the HOOK, so this is a great place to take additional trades,

The larger the move to the target the more we can get on the deal and compound our profits.
  • #8,858
  • Mar 1, 2023 1:28am Mar 1, 2023 1:28am
Missed the morning swing yesterday, but got the afternoon one.
Thanks, Nala.
I do trade my own way, M30 (my eyes are too old for M5) but here are some of the invaluable lessons I learned from you over the years,( yes, years).

I created a PowerPoint booklet, it is called "Nala", I copy quotes and pics from you.

-I only trade Cable now.
-Divergence, of course.
-26 EMA, of course.
-Add additional trades, when possible.

Few people with your skills spend so much time sharing, correcting, and teaching others, all for free.
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  • #8,859
  • Mar 1, 2023 5:13pm Mar 1, 2023 5:13pm
Quoting cuchuflito
Missed the morning swing yesterday, but got the afternoon one. Thanks, Nala. I do trade my own way, M30 (my eyes are too old for M5) but here are some of the invaluable lessons I learned from you over the years,( yes, years). I created a PowerPoint booklet, it is called "Nala", I copy quotes and pics from you. -I only trade Cable now. -Divergence, of course. -26 EMA, of course. -Add additional trades, when possible. Few people with your skills spend so much time sharing, correcting, and teaching others, all for free. {image}
Hi cuchuflito.
Why are you use to heiken ashi, can your intruction system ?, i learning method nalla , i try make profit but not yet, thanks nala .
  • #8,860
  • Mar 1, 2023 8:54pm Mar 1, 2023 8:54pm
That was a messy ABCD yesterday, but it got there in the end.

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It kicked off short with an RSI bear div, got to the D1 50% then produced a HOOK test before finally going on to the D1 target. Phew!!!!!
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