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Let's Trade Options

  • #18,521
  • Feb 26, 2023 1:48pm Feb 26, 2023 1:48pm
Love all the info you provide us here man, been trying to get into options myself and just reading your stuff makes me slightly understand
The consistency that you seek is in your mind
  • #18,522
  • Feb 26, 2023 1:53pm Feb 26, 2023 1:53pm
I feel like most markets are at a very sensitive level at the moment, feel like QQQ if it fails to push 290 we can see potential downside into 287 and 284. And also keeping eyes on SPY, want to see a reaction at 393, if we fail that I'd like to look for puts towards 387.
The consistency that you seek is in your mind
  • #18,523
  • Feb 26, 2023 7:31pm Feb 26, 2023 7:31pm
Quoting alexvmit
I feel like most markets are at a very sensitive level at the moment, feel like QQQ if it fails to push 290 we can see potential downside into 287 and 284. And also keeping eyes on SPY, want to see a reaction at 393, if we fail that I'd like to look for puts towards 387.
I can usually talk myself into any directional bias, which is why I almost always trade bi-directionally. The typical combo trades I have been showing have a long call part, a long put part and an IC, which is short call/short put. I am trying to cover up, down, and sideways. Sometimes it doesn't work and I lose a little money; sometimes I work it just right and it makes a ton. It's really a lot of fun and I am always trying to improve the game, within pretty narrow bounds. If you ever want to give options trading a try, you're welcome to post some of your trades here, and I will tell you what I think.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,524
  • Feb 26, 2023 7:37pm Feb 26, 2023 7:37pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...there's a gap to fill at about 4,080-4,090, looking for a bounce Monday to sell calls into a lotto calendar
...if we can gap $20+ into early Monday, I can sell Mar2 $4150 SPX calls to make a nice calendar for no cost. I can also diagonalize a little bit, don't want to, even though $4,150 is way out there, @ 1 delta atm....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,525
  • Feb 27, 2023 3:31pm Feb 27, 2023 3:31pm
PRICE action bearish, but no conviction either way. I won't be surprised to see a consolidation zone ~<$150 wide set up round 4000 and run for weeks...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,526
  • Feb 27, 2023 8:33pm Feb 27, 2023 8:33pm
wide fly lotto tix, way otm - but plenty finpress hacks are predicting a retest of Oct 22 lows. The 10-lot example shown risks $1,600 & is margin neutral

@ 10 days from expiry, be will be around 3,885, value at 3,500 will be > $25k

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@ expiry, maxP will be > $99k and be @ 3,590

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,527
  • Feb 28, 2023 1:56am Feb 28, 2023 1:56am
I have not been trading NDX, although it's tempting. The problem is the options are just too thin. They seem to be coming up some though. Still my fear is I spend a few g's on some trades, hit a big score, and then they won't fill me to close....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,528
  • Feb 28, 2023 2:13am Feb 28, 2023 2:13am
Most strikes only have single-digit volume....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,529
  • Feb 28, 2023 7:53am Feb 28, 2023 7:53am
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,530
  • Feb 28, 2023 1:34pm Feb 28, 2023 1:34pm
I expect this tiny range sideways action to run until the next CPI week, March 13 week....Beware the Ides yo...iv's will be cratering in the sideways chop and that'll be good for time spread entries.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,531
  • Mar 1, 2023 6:09pm Mar 1, 2023 6:09pm
Quoting The Fool
I expect this tiny range sideways action to run until the next CPI week, March 13 week.
Whatever was given up today will be reclaimed overnight, you know the drill.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,532
  • Mar 1, 2023 9:07pm Mar 1, 2023 9:07pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Whatever was given up today will be reclaimed overnight, you know the drill.
That little puke to 3930 at 845est was the best buy signal I've ever seen...
  • #18,533
  • Mar 1, 2023 11:42pm Mar 1, 2023 11:42pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Whatever was given up today will be reclaimed overnight, you know the drill.
...or maybe we level down, swing around 3,900 for a while. A break below 3,900 by Friday late will make my February, fuckall if it's a few days late. I am almost on the verge of giving up on directional trading until some things change in the macro regime....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,534
  • Mar 1, 2023 11:46pm Mar 1, 2023 11:46pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} That little puke to 3930 at 845est was the best buy signal I've ever seen...
Soros, the Illuminati, The Keebler Elves, Q, and the Galactic Federation have let Wall Street know that we need a dip to at least Oct'22 lows. I am assuming the PBOC, the CCP, and the King of England (god help us) all got the same message. When the Feb CPI comes in hot, the door is open for a Mar Fed 50 bps hike, and possibly a direct asteroid strike on the Vatican, and then we can really capitulate.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,535
  • Mar 2, 2023 5:52am Mar 2, 2023 5:52am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Soros, the Illuminati, The Keebler Elves, Q, and the Galactic Federation have let Wall Street know that we need a dip to at least Oct'22 lows. I am assuming the PBOC, the CCP, and the King of England (god help us) all got the same message. When the Feb CPI comes in hot, the door is open for a Mar Fed 50 bps hike, and possibly a direct asteroid strike on the Vatican, and then we can really capitulate.
Lolll yep that's what the whole damn world is waiting on... Just a parade of horribles to btfd from

All I've been seeing is premium sellers cleaning up dude...
  • #18,536
  • Mar 2, 2023 8:09am Mar 2, 2023 8:09am
Quoting The Fool
When the Feb CPI comes in hot, the door is open for a Mar Fed 50 bps hike
...why buy stonks when you can get safe ust yield over 5% on the front end? Prob going to 4.5% for 10 yrs? There are more shoes to drop, more chickens to come home & roast, (and other things of this nature), only question is when, and I'd say sooner than later, but I am so bored with waiting on the next inflation/FOMC data print. I need a new side hustle...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,537
  • Mar 2, 2023 8:27am Mar 2, 2023 8:27am
Quoting Wulfgar
All I've been seeing is premium sellers cleaning up dude...
yup, skew is in the puts, but not by a ton. Still, I'd like to sell a rip, wondering if there's a good data point out there, that's all it would take. NFP postponed til next week and then CPI on 3/14....I am looking to bracket those. Labor is prob still gonna outperform but CPI may be cooling well....we'll see. For now, crossing fingers for a dip below 3,900 Friday.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,538
  • Mar 2, 2023 8:38am Mar 2, 2023 8:38am
Quoting The Fool
For now, crossing fingers for a dip below 3,900 Friday.
...ISM pmi tomorrow and then 4x Fed heads talking, maybe that could be enough to print a decent sized red candle. SPX ATR is cratering, almost < $50, that's taking the iv's along. Nobody loves a market that doesn't move....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,539
  • Mar 2, 2023 5:46pm Mar 2, 2023 5:46pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} That little puke to 3930 at 845est was the best buy signal I've ever seen...

And of course we close up 50 from there

I don't know man. Sure seems like this thing is coiled to blow. No? Macro accumulation can certainly stretch down to 380, but the question is do they need it?
If more corps lay off a bunch of people on shit earnings, then do huge stock buybacks and don't do splits, the market rips in a stunning fashion.

I'm waiting for one of those WTF weekly green candles that just leaves a trail of done and dusted shorts in it's wake.

But it's usually a stairstep until the blow off at the end...
  • #18,540
  • Mar 2, 2023 5:47pm Mar 2, 2023 5:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}. For now, crossing fingers for a dip below 3,900 Friday.
A dip below 3900 feels like an absolute gift....
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