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  • #18,481
  • Feb 15, 2023 11:58am Feb 15, 2023 11:58am
Never fight a begrudging bull. Even with hot CPI, Spooz is only 1.5% off the recent highs…. Battling that sort of momentum is tough…there just isnt enough downside unless its FA driven…

Im so wide these moves barely matter, the short puts I have funding the whole venture are June 350P… but who knows…. Plenty of black swans out there
  • #18,482
  • Feb 15, 2023 12:35pm Feb 15, 2023 12:35pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Plenty of black swans out there
yeah, it might take one. This sideways spoos chop can go on for weeks & months. I won't be surprised to see it rangebound at least until the March FOMC, another month away.....

Anyway, the chop is good for selling spreads. Just sit back and watch the theta $ roll in.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,483
  • Feb 15, 2023 4:26pm Feb 15, 2023 4:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}yeah, it might take one. This sideways spoos chop can go on for weeks & months. I won't be surprised to see it rangebound at least until the March FOMC, another month away..... Anyway, the chop is good for selling spreads. Just sit back and watch the theta $ roll in..... {image}
Premium sellers are cleaning up dude…
  • #18,484
  • Feb 16, 2023 8:19am Feb 16, 2023 8:19am
More sticky data, futes down >1%. Typical will be all that loss will be erased by cob. JPow doesn't have the stones to shock the market, which isn't going down under the threat of a few more incremental 25 bps hikes. It's a btfd world again.....FTSE and CAC40 just hit new ath's today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,485
  • Feb 16, 2023 9:27am Feb 16, 2023 9:27am
Quoting The Fool
More sticky data, futes down >1%. Typical will be all that loss will be erased by cob. JPow doesn't have the stones to shock the market, which isn't going down under the threat of a few more incremental 25 bps hikes. It's a btfd world again.....FTSE and CAC40 just hit new ath's today....
When I saw spooz down 50+ at the open, 2 questions entered my mind

1. Why are we down so much?

2. What time today do we go green?
  • #18,486
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:41pm Feb 16, 2023 1:41pm
Quoting The Fool
More sticky data, futes down >1%. Typical will be all that loss will be erased by cob. JPow doesn't have the stones to shock the market, ....
..You're a pussy Jerome, you hear me boy? That's your legacy. Do some drive-by surprise hikes already, or we'll be in this sideways chop for years...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,487
  • Feb 16, 2023 2:35pm Feb 16, 2023 2:35pm
Hefty call buying, VIX out Mar, April, & May...they say the 100k Mays were "Fifty Cent's"....as good a lotto ticket as any
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,488
  • Feb 16, 2023 2:57pm Feb 16, 2023 2:57pm
Quoting The Fool
Hefty call buying, VIX out Mar, April, & May...they say the 100k Mays were "Fifty Cent's"....as good a lotto ticket as any
....there's another spike to VIX $35 out there somewhere. Model shows that happening by 3/31 - 50-Cent's 100,000 $90 calls, bot for 20c, would net > $1.50 on a lift to $35. (That'd be a $13 million win.) I'm modelling a 50% iv jack, could be more....a 100% iv increase would net $3.40 on the same p/l....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,489
  • Feb 16, 2023 3:10pm Feb 16, 2023 3:10pm
if this bear move follows thru Friday, I will eke out a meager gain for the week. I'll close everything except the SPX bull put vert, might look for a chance to roll that up if the bear continues.....the SPX bear call verts went on for $5, could debit out tomorrow for 75c, with luck....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,490
  • Feb 19, 2023 1:36pm Feb 19, 2023 1:36pm
lots good content in spotgamma's vids

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,491
  • Edited Feb 20, 2023 2:30am Feb 19, 2023 7:57pm | Edited Feb 20, 2023 2:30am
MAYBE stocks can unwind on a hawkish FOMC minutes? Sideways action is getting too boring to trade....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,492
  • Feb 20, 2023 2:39am Feb 20, 2023 2:39am
the indices are flat-lining, atr's are shrinking, iv's are declining, much of the volume in index options is programmatic hft, mm's covering the ever-growing short-duration options volumes, there's no fundies conviction to spark a trend. Nevertheless, still I set these traps....
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  • #18,493
  • Feb 20, 2023 2:56am Feb 20, 2023 2:56am
earnings season still lots to go, look at BIDU, NVDA, ......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,494
  • Feb 20, 2023 7:55pm Feb 20, 2023 7:55pm
Quoting The Fool
MAYBE stocks can unwind on a hawkish FOMC minutes? Sideways action is getting too boring to trade.... {image}
In a Bear market, a dull market just means another leg down is coming, in a bull market, the opposite

the market is definitely dull, the question is are we in a bull or a bear regime?
  • #18,495
  • Feb 20, 2023 9:29pm Feb 20, 2023 9:29pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} In a Bear market, a dull market just means another leg down is coming, in a bull market, the opposite the market is definitely dull, the question is are we in a bull or a bear regime?
bull or bear, I'll take either one. I think we are turning and will see indices drop, my downside low target for a 1-wk window SPX 3,900. I see bond futes selling, /ES down $19...hope that holds for early Monday cuz my $5 Mar13 SPX 3500/4000 bear calls will come off for 70c or lower......I'll sell that again a little further out in the teeth of any rally.

This flag/breakout...flag/breakout shite has been playing since Jan '22. Actually not so hard to trade but there are some misses and some (too much) waiting. I'm on vacation, should take a break, but can't kick it. I'm thinking of going down to Laguna Bch for a spring sabbatical, Apr-May. Don't you miss socal ever?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,496
  • Feb 20, 2023 10:03pm Feb 20, 2023 10:03pm
$97.5531 on a 26-week note, same as 4.9% apy, I have been waiting for the 2-yr note to hit 4.75% or better. What % of hedge funds under-perform these treasury rates?

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,497
  • Feb 20, 2023 10:09pm Feb 20, 2023 10:09pm
they's a 2-yr note auction tomorrow.....some think it'll peak at 5%+ this year

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,498
  • Feb 20, 2023 10:23pm Feb 20, 2023 10:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}bull or bear, I'll take either one. I think we are turning and will see indices drop, my downside low target for a 1-wk window SPX 3,900. I see bond futes selling, /ES down $19...hope that holds for early Monday cuz my $5 Mar13 SPX 3500/4000 bear calls will come off for 70c or lower......I'll sell that again a little further out in the teeth of any rally. This flag/breakout...flag/breakout shite has been playing since Jan '22. Actually not so hard to trade but there are some misses and some (too much) waiting. I'm on vacation, should take...
Yeah, no matter where we go, its just about hitching along for the ride. Im still playing the contrarian mega bull, as I keep having flashbacks to the bear market of 98’ before the dot com run…

And yeah man, SoCal is a special place, spent most of my life there. It’s cold and rainy this time of year, whereas it really is endless summer in Miami. Although during the actual Summer Ill no doubt look to go live back in SoCal for 3 months lol
Laguna Bach is great. My dad and i used to build sets for the Pageant of the Masters there every year. Good times.
  • #18,499
  • Feb 20, 2023 10:26pm Feb 20, 2023 10:26pm
Quoting The Fool
they's a 2-yr note auction tomorrow.....some think it'll peak at 5%+ this year {image}
Id be truly stunned. From where Im sitting rates have peaked and are heading monumentally lower this year….

But who knows. I just try to play the side with the best risk/reward

Rarely have we been so one sided…. Massive opportunity right now in these markets
  • #18,500
  • Feb 20, 2023 10:43pm Feb 20, 2023 10:43pm
yep things are gonna break bigtime, just need to keep trying to have some dogs in the hunt.

....gotta go back to 2007 to comp the short end notes....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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