NFP news not as relevant? | Forex Factory

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NFP news not as relevant?

  • #1
  • First Post: May 4, 2007 8:17am May 4, 2007 8:17am
This is the 4th month in a row that the move for NFP news is not that big.
Only 19k deviation in job numbers and rise in unemployment. Looks like there are no surprises any more.
Funny how there is always a false move, this time down in GBP/USD before the actual correct direction Looks like the short straddlers that were too close to price action may not have done so well.
  • #2
  • May 4, 2007 7:38pm May 4, 2007 7:38pm
Quoting PipStar
This is the 4th month in a row that the move for NFP news is not that big.
Only 19k deviation in job numbers and rise in unemployment. Looks like there are no surprises any more.
Funny how there is always a false move, this time down in GBP/USD before the actual correct direction Looks like the short straddlers that were too close to price action may not have done so well.
the move down was nothing to do with 'straddlers'. A certain newsource printed a headline figure of 188 instead of 88 and a model sold 6k eurodollar Dec 07s all the way down to 81.5 bringing everytihng else on the yield curve along with it.
  • #3
  • May 4, 2007 7:55pm May 4, 2007 7:55pm
yea as the guy above me said. It had nothing to do with straddlers. You have to keep in mind, the retail forex traders do nothing to move the market, its the banks that move the exchange rates and they do not straddle price. I cant explain why that move happened but I can assure you it did not have anything to do with short straddles. The reason the NFP is not having as much of an impact currently is because there are other fundamental elements in play, although the NFP has alot to do with the US economy you have to look at the bigger picture.
  • #4
  • May 4, 2007 9:38pm May 4, 2007 9:38pm
If you read my post above, I did not say that the move was caused by straddlers but rather that short straddles that were too close to price action got filled in the initial move down and therefore made a loss.

Going back to my original thought, the NFP sure is having a lesser impact and I was wondering whether the deviation of last 4 months have not been large enough to cause a big move. Or whether there are other factors in play that have diminished NFP importance?
  • #5
  • May 4, 2007 10:20pm May 4, 2007 10:20pm
I think if we measure daily range on NFP friday and compare that to a ratio of deviation in actual vs expected and previous vs revision you will find a very close relationship in the last 2 years of data. the NFP still moves almost exactly 100 pips if deviated 25k. If less however it does not move more than 50-60 pips. it has done this the whole time I've traded.
Who was the news wire reporting 188 because TTN reported 188 initially and i about hit something when i did not get a sell strong signal. Then i realized they misspoke or were misquoted.
It really is that easy.
  • #6
  • May 5, 2007 3:43am May 5, 2007 3:43am
Quoting PipStar
If you read my post above, I did not say that the move was caused by straddlers but rather that short straddles that were too close to price action got filled in the initial move down and therefore made a loss.

Going back to my original thought, the NFP sure is having a lesser impact and I was wondering whether the deviation of last 4 months have not been large enough to cause a big move. Or whether there are other factors in play that have diminished NFP importance?
apologies, I misread your post. Not to nitpick but a short straddle doesnt mean anything. I think you meant to say short leg of the straddle.
  • #7
  • Last Post: May 7, 2007 12:29pm May 7, 2007 12:29pm
Quoting sccz97
apologies, I misread your post. Not to nitpick but a short straddle doesnt mean anything. I think you meant to say short leg of the straddle.
same here, apologies
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