Trend following system is dead | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Long Term Forex Trend Following System 5 replies

Is Grid Trading (combined trend following and counter trend) Profitable? 3 replies

Trend following or trend fading? 8 replies

SMA - Bollinger long term trend following system 7 replies

PBTrend A Daily Trend Following System 13 replies

Attachments: Trend following system is dead
Exit Attachments

Trend following system is dead

  • #41
  • Feb 17, 2023 11:08am Feb 17, 2023 11:08am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} That's really very funny coming from a person who believes "data information" is real life. Hehehe I don't care about "twee" or Pat or RickM. I guess you're a person who thinks your trading is real. I have found you and "your people" are so far behind any curve, so far behind anything really, that the attitude says it all. I'm not frustrated or taking losses. I know how to think. So no, not important, relevant. So go watch tv and enjoy whatever you can. I just love stirring the pot. If people don't want to be a moron, then you have options....
Here i found a picture of you wearing a hat together with RickM:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: drax-moonraker-hunting-suit-and-cape-roger-moore-shooting-1536x864.jpg Size: 190 KB
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #42
  • Feb 17, 2023 3:40pm Feb 17, 2023 3:40pm
Just wonder why people call kinder drawings a "system" and then say it stopped working. What stopped working? Drawing tools? Golden ration is not golden and not a ratio anymore? Moving average not the average and not moves anymore? What exactly stopped working in your Systems? (Better call your outstanding never-ever-seen approaches with capital letter of course)
Observer effect
  • #43
  • Feb 17, 2023 4:48pm Feb 17, 2023 4:48pm
I always find it hilarious when silly insecure people who try to cover up what they do not understand, always try to use the same techniques to dismiss or deflect. You'd think that 20 + yrs of being alive on Earth, would be enough time to grow up. But alas all that comes from people is the same old BS about whatever they can muster to keep the attention off them.

What would you people do if something serious happened? Hehehehe.

I also love it on these sites when people think that not using a well rounded approach will yield something. It's not what you "get today" it's what happens tomorrow.

This thread to Rick is a "trap" etc but I see it as a great opportunity. Oh wait !! Does that sound familiar ?? Yes yes I think it does. It sounds a lot like ...... trading. Oh but now, if I follow Rick's lead, I need to stick my head into a jar instead of actually learning something that is real and time tested. Why? Because I can't handle the basic truth of what I am dealing with and I'm too f'n lazy to work outside my comfort zone. And because I wanna get paid NOW. Hihihihihi

Sorry ..... is this rambling? Actual real people call this talking and communication. But not 'modern people'. No. You'd just roll your eyes and yawn coz you get bored too quickly, got the attention span of a gnat and don't have an ounce of maturity where it counts.

The more rubbish you write, the more you become the object of examples of what I'm talking about. Hehehehe.

Maybe the establishment should bring back firing squads. Maybe people would learn a thing or two from that. Mmmmm nnnnaahhh. Probably not. You'd cry and winge and try to find a way to wriggle out of taking responsibility for yourself.

Oh sorry. I'm not using the proper "texting" vocab am I. No wonder people cannot understand what I am saying.

U R not a dumbass but u want 2 bhave lik 1. Butt U confusd Y UR life not so goood.

Yeah, trading is EXACTLY the same as that.

Too much data you lose your way. Too much maths you lose your way. Too much automation you lose control and management capabilities.

Oh I am sooos orry. Right, text talk......

meee sooory, can we b BFF's ?!! "me-love-you-long-time". Hihihihihihii.

I love it when people think they can hide everything because they go online.

Try learning something. Being one step up from animals is not living.

=======================================

Trend ..... no trend.

Learn something and pull your frickin' head out of your ass.

=============================================


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #44
  • Feb 17, 2023 4:53pm Feb 17, 2023 4:53pm
Trend lasts for a period of time, I guess.

What I'm trying to say is, since war began we entered a new situation and markets had to adapt.

We got trends going on in pairs including USD, CHF.

Like stocks, when there's nothing going on EUR and GBP will do well and be in an uptrend, during turbulent times, USD and CHF will.
  • #45
  • Edited 8:17pm Feb 17, 2023 8:06pm | Edited 8:17pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
I always find it hilarious when silly insecure people who try to cover up what they do not understand, always try to use the same techniques to dismiss or deflect. You'd think that 20 + yrs of being alive on Earth, would be enough time to grow up. But alas all that comes from people is the same old BS about whatever they can muster to keep the attention off them. What would you people do if something serious happened? Hehehehe. I also love it on these sites when people think that not using a well rounded approach will yield something. It's not what...
Peter

I think you need a history lesson.

Most people reading my post now are aware of a famous stock trader called Jessie Livermore, who made his money by reading the tape in the early 1900's. If we go back further to the 1860's, we find other great tape readers like Woods and there were many other great speculators who were also tape readers.
It's been done for 150 years, there is nothing new in the trading world.

This same skill in 2023 can be done by reading DATA of Centralized trading exchanges like CME, NYSE, NASDAQ - there's nothing new in reading the data as its just tape reading like Larry performed 100 years ago.

Now you talk about firing squads, texting on phones, bad attention spans, sticking your head in someone's ass - anything that's not a rational mindset a good trader needs to learn this game. Your'e not a trader mate and you prove it every time you write dumbass posts.

Peter

I can explain exactly how I trade from the tape via the CME exchange, how I read the tape when I'm trading Stocks on the ASX exchange - but here is the question I want you to answer.

Do you know what tape I am even talking about?
If you get your head out of someone's ass (preferably not your own) - tell me how's its done?.

Surely someone with your wisdom can answer that question.

If you can even get close to answering with a coherent answer that's evenly remotely comes close to the right one, I am happy to break down in mathematics' how a trend is created, even discuss how a famous trader from 10 years back manipulated the market so cleverly - he got blamed for bringing the US stock market to its knees.

We can argue all night long between ourselves - maybe it's time to add value here.

Kind Regards
RickM
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #46
  • Feb 17, 2023 9:24pm Feb 17, 2023 9:24pm
Quoting birdland
yes and no. i found these 4 clear H4 trends with GU last year: {image}{image}{image}{image} i highlighted the trends on the daily chart also: {image}
on a side note - your chart template looks really clean. What colors are those?
  • #47
  • Edited 11:48pm Feb 17, 2023 11:04pm | Edited 11:48pm
Strange thread, but yes, I can see Twee posting or paying people to post on here to get more clicks. I've condemned him frequently for allowing specific people to post on here who have admitted that they are not active traders. And ALL of them love WEF and their goal for you to "own nothing and be happy." Strange indeed being that means there will no longer be any markets to trade if these depopulation people are allowed to follow through on enslaving us...but I digress.

As to trends and tape reading:
Mike Bellafiore, the co-founder and managing partner of Wall Street prop firm SMB Capital and the author of One Good Trade: Inside the Highly Competitive World of Proprietary Trading (Wiley Trading) and The PlayBook: An Inside Look at How to Think Like a Professional Trader (Financial Times Press), has frequently stated that the top traders on their desk over the years all have one thing in common: They are really good at reading the tape. That firm has been around 18 years so I think I'm going to stick with their proven results/methods over some yahoo getting on here and claiming he's the only manly man left in the world or something like that...it's very hard to care about reading his ramblings so his post are now being ignored.

I guess there's a new trend...ignore Peter/Crap.

Inserted Video
  • #48
  • Feb 17, 2023 11:41pm Feb 17, 2023 11:41pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Peter I think you need a history lesson. Most people reading my post now are aware of a famous stock trader called Jessie Livermore, who made his money by reading the tape in the early 1900's. If we go back further to the 1860's, we find other great tape readers like Woods and there were many other great speculators who were also tape readers. It's been done for 150 years, there is nothing new in the trading world. This same skill in 2023 can be done by reading DATA of Centralized trading exchanges like CME, NYSE, NASDAQ - there's nothing...


Cashbox ..... With age and experience comes perspective. And children don't get a vote when they're pretending to an adult. It shows they have a lot of growing up to do.

Rick ....

That's fine. People can assume I'm an idiot etc, makes no difference here.

Sure we can discuss data transmission. The problem people like me have with data traders, is it's not real life, not even close. What I write here is to show you that gambling/speculation has been made "trendy" meanwhile, real trading is not mentioned because of many reasons.

Company A and B are merging and the debt consolidation report/proposal is delivered. Company A, being the main absorber of the merger, to become the parent company needs to offset debt so they can retain their position in their sector as well as hedge the coming change in eg. debt regulation or cappings. So, they need to float a primary exposure into the market (FX) so they can carry on business, so the shareholders are happy and so they can find agreeable tender of the next product contracts that come out just before Christmas 2023, not long before quarterly turnover and then the next eg shareholders meeting.

With me? Good.

That above is a vanilla eg of what happens all the time out in the real world.

Business activity and decisions -> translate to -> other industry activity and overlaying of activity.

You don't need a business degree to learn this stuff. Just be attentive and observant and ask a lot of questions.

"Data Workarounds" is fashionable these days, just as "is trend trading good?" or "does trend trading work?".

Data traders use an edge that has been galvanized. What 'data' "is" and how you use it or I use it will differ. It goes back to 'the chicken and the egg'. The world does not run on data. Nor do trading decisions. You use CME or NASDAQ. I use the steps that occur before it gets there to see how it may/will merge with what's already on the CME and NASDAQ. Just as an example. So 'tape reading' is not just tape and price reading. I was taught that price tracking is too easy to be manipulated (even back in the 80's before the technology existed worldwide) so it should never be step 1.

Cash and currency are two different things (to the markets) so they must be observed in more than just a price crunching format. I had the same argument with GeFX on FF about this long ago. How to read what's coming in, that then shows up as orders presenting in a way where 'orderflow/book' is not available or not used. The best way is to see the prior steps and understand how business and finance are interlinked. Always interlinked.

Yes I do know the types of data you are talking about. The surprise here for you is, it wasn't your idea to release/use that data. And if you don't ask the kinds of poignant questions re: data, where you realize this, then the illusion covers the reality - you have no control over anything. To me, data is akin to my left hand's lower 3 fingers. They play a part but I would never ever solely rely on them.

Sources of data means nothing if you cannot detail WHY and HOW it came to be. Otherwise you are being force fed information without really knowing its greater purpose. I'm sorry to say, this is a major reason for the push to get people to see and treat all of this as trading instead of mere speculation as an aspect of gambling.

I know what I do is a type of gambling, but I use at least two contingencies to dilute the possibility of loss.... not being wrong, but loss right down to nearly zero. Data cannot do that.

Data is not the source. That should be a wake up call for most people.

So yes I understand about the data. But it is step 4 or 5 in a long chain process. The problem for beginners is you read the wrong news.

It's OK. I'll do my thing and you do yours. Anyway cliches and happenstance aside, real trading is by the looks of it, a dying art form. Speculation dressed up as trading is the new .... trend ... now.

I would say people need to realize there are people who have been trading a lot longer with a much deeper understanding. Price and data are not "king" and never have been.

Rick, once you come off your sugar high re: data, then reality can kick in. Just as with other people. I don't need your maths, mine works just fine. I think you're forgetting, I've been doing this a lot longer than you. So I've had time to .... well, hehehe, use my time. As I have said many times, data crunching is not trading, it's just more data. People drive society and society drives the markets. Surely laziness doesn't extend so far that this basic fact of Life is beyond a person's reach. Business and Finance. Forex is about these things as well as people. If you're serious then these are areas to read into.

To lazy to do this? Then take a number and join the people on these sites.

Ciao.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #49
  • Feb 18, 2023 3:41am Feb 18, 2023 3:41am
For Cashbox and anyone else here ......

Personally, I don't trust Prop Firms, Hedge Funds and Capital 'Managers' as far as I can kick em'. Worked with too many who have their brains in their margins and are too handsy with the public. Please see exhibit A re: what Cashbox said about their proven methods etc. The best stuff is never published. And if something is published, it's not to "help people" make money. People surely are not this naive. You need to try thinking of it as a domino affect ... yes that's an A not an E for affect. Anything published is notably, heavily scrutinized and forecasting is done to determine AFFECT. If you want an eg of this LOOK at the lovely vid Cashbox put there in their post for me to point to here. Price validation has been around since BC times. You people understand that that is all orderflow etc really is right?! Just in another form. And the video (hehehehehehehe) shows this and so all people who jump up and down about all this stuff, getting all giggly and excited, learn about business PLEASE. It's all there. Bus-i-ness (Busy-ness) requires active generation of something native and something foreign to thus create something "new". A product, a service or a hybrid of the 2. A 'financial' market is a hybrid. It is a cash on cash hybrid, so it cannot stop moving while it CAN move. Such silliness in all these videos and on these sites. A strategy reflects one's understanding OF one's understanding of this principle. Ever since trading started in ancient times, this has been present. So give orderflow to a dumbass and they'll think the default settings are "best". WHAT !!!!!??? Are you serious ?!! If you understand business and the consumption of money then you can learn why and how an agreed "price" is concluded / printed / taped (to your forehead!) Hehehehe. Ever tried haggling on price for something you wanted to buy or sell? DAAAHHH. Light bulb moment. Ding Ding Ding !!

As for professional. Well, merely exchange that word for career and you might see how your perception and understanding changes on a dime. The people who do it for a living p-r-o-b-a-b-l-y may know a little more than a youtube video hehehehehehe.

If I was starting out again, I would say this - be ready to buy when the market is empty, be ready to buy when it's full and be ready to cash out when you're humble enough to know when it's time to exit. And for good measure, try a few brokers from different continents and "ratings". That'll give you a mix of good and bad experiences to test your commitment and maturity.

Ok I'm done.

Bye.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #50
  • Feb 18, 2023 1:18pm Feb 18, 2023 1:18pm
Quoting SnailFX
Trend lasts for a period of time, I guess. What I'm trying to say is, since war began we entered a new situation and markets had to adapt. We got trends going on in pairs including USD, CHF. Like stocks, when there's nothing going on EUR and GBP will do well and be in an uptrend, during turbulent times, USD and CHF will.
//-----

of course what you say is true...... but there is always something on tv....

the war..... covid..... brexit..... tarriffs..... euro troubles.... financial crises....... lehman brothers..... jerry springer..... on and on......
//-----

take a daily or weekly chart..... here i used the audnzd because both are commodity currencies and it does not contain usd, chf, gby, jpy......

the trends are just as visible..... as the ma angles increase the trend becomes clearer still......

if you just have to buy or sell against the daily or weekly trends, simply drop down to the lower time frames..... trade the extreme angles.....

and of course, there will be some that say angles can not be measured...... they will also say 3000 wins in a row is impossible.....

yeah ok.... lol..... h

//
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd-w1-oanda-division1.png Size: 18 KB


//------

Inserted Video


//-----
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #51
  • Feb 18, 2023 2:24pm Feb 18, 2023 2:24pm
everyone are heros while observing historical data of the chart. I COULD'VE ENTERED IN BITCOIN IN 2009. but why you didn't then? You never know when the trend is going to start and end, this is the problem, because we don't know what's going to happen tomorrow. Maybe Putin will stop this war and markets will be bullish. I totally agree there is no working trend strategy, what is working 100% called liquidity hunt.
IgorFX
  • #52
  • Edited 2:46pm Feb 18, 2023 2:33pm | Edited 2:46pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- of course what you say is true...... but there is always something on tv.... the war..... covid..... brexit..... tarriffs..... euro troubles.... financial crises....... lehman brothers..... jerry springer..... on and on...... //----- take a daily or weekly chart..... here i used the audnzd because both are commodity currencies and it does not contain usd, chf, gby, jpy...... the trends are just as visible..... as the ma angles increase the trend becomes clearer still...... if you just have to buy or sell against the daily or weekly...
Damn, 2006..

Thanks for the reply hayseed.

Nice chart man!

I believe in trends yeah. It does exist.

AUD going up perhaps could be connected with China reopening. Major things determine the trend. These "High-Impact News" except interest rates and inflation don't mean much in my opinion. It seems like they do to us, but in the bigger picture they don't.

What is that below your chart?
If it blue you go Long and if it's Red you go Short, but if it's Black you don't take the trade right?

Again, thanks for the reply and video.

AUD/NZD Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD.png Size: 18 KB
  • #53
  • Feb 18, 2023 4:34pm Feb 18, 2023 4:34pm
Quoting SnailFX
What is that below your chart? If it blue you go Long and if it's Red you go Short, but if it's Black you don't take the trade right?
//-----

yes somewhat..... that is weekly only...... the video below explains it on 1 timeframe..... the success ratio is better when applied to 5 timeframes..... which can be said of almost all indicators.....

such as, when the combined red or blue counts of 60, 240, 1440 and 10080 times frame total 14 or more, i'll take the next 30 minute signal when remaining atr is available and the zigzag is properly positioned......

i literally trade by lower timeframe numbers and colors , usually in the direction of the larger trend.....h

//----

Inserted Video
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #54
  • Feb 18, 2023 4:42pm Feb 18, 2023 4:42pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
Trend following system is dead. The trend following systems approach doesn't work anymore.
My reply to original premise of this thread is that the statement should NOT be that is doesn't work anymore but instead, that the market is in a period of consolidation.

It's only a matter of time before trends will reappear, study the charts and be ready.

Cheers
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #55
  • Edited Feb 19, 2023 8:31am Feb 18, 2023 7:00pm | Edited Feb 19, 2023 8:31am
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- of course what you say is true...... but there is always something on tv.... the war..... covid..... brexit..... tarriffs..... euro troubles.... financial crises....... lehman brothers..... jerry springer..... on and on...... //----- take a daily or weekly chart..... here i used the audnzd because both are commodity currencies and it does not contain usd, chf, gby, jpy...... the trends are just as visible..... as the ma angles increase the trend becomes clearer still...... if you just have to buy or sell against the daily or weekly...

Hey Bruce, did you find that Fahrenheit 451 in your stack of old laptops or you are just teasing us with it?
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Trend_Angle_fix_fixed-3.mq4   6 KB | 277 downloads
  • #56
  • Feb 18, 2023 7:27pm Feb 18, 2023 7:27pm
Quoting keyman.
everyone are heros while observing historical data of the chart. I COULD'VE ENTERED IN BITCOIN IN 2009. but why you didn't then? You never know when the trend is going to start and end, this is the problem, because we don't know what's going to happen tomorrow. Maybe Putin will stop this war and markets will be bullish. I totally agree there is no working trend strategy, what is working 100% called liquidity hunt.
Totally agree that hunting liquidity is the best trend trading strategy that's ever existed.
Of course I don't know what your definition of liquidity hunting would be, but I will describe my trend trading strategy in a nutshell.

Attack resting orders when orderbook imbalance is strongly against trend.
In other words, follow the trend if forces strongly oppose that move.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #57
  • Feb 18, 2023 10:13pm Feb 18, 2023 10:13pm
Quoting OutThere
Hey Bruce, did you find that Fahrenheit 451 in your stack of old laptops or you are just teasing us with it?
//-----

not yet..... stay so busy really never think about looking for it.....

that indicator you posted is from alexander over on codebase..... he is in the top 10 best coders in the world, at least in my mind.......

it will work somewhat but might not work as well as planned..... place it on a plain chart, zoom in or out..... or squish the prices up and down on the right..... the angle value will change and it should not..... which are some of the reasons so many said angles were impossible to calculate......

that's not true..... what is true, is they could not do it..... so they said it could not be done....

you can, from a single chart, calculate every angle on every symbol on every timeframe..... a single ea on a single chart can trend trade every pair on every timeframe using a single ma only.....

the concept is simple.... if the 10080 sma(10) is falling, the 1440 sma(10) is falling, the 240 sma(10) is falling, the 60 sma(10) is falling, a 30 minute sell signal has a fair shot at success.....
//-----

for the life of me, i can not trade 'support and resistance' or 'supply and demand' or 'breakouts' or 'order flow', or countertrend, or, or, or.....

but give a trend and i'll be in high cotton.....h
//----

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy-w1-oanda-division1.png Size: 14 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #58
  • Feb 18, 2023 11:02pm Feb 18, 2023 11:02pm
Following the trend is always your ultimate strategy. Whatever your indicator is, you have to catch the market trend before opening a trade. And this system isn’t yet dead.
  • #59
  • Feb 19, 2023 2:55am Feb 19, 2023 2:55am
Quoting TheProtege
{quote} on a side note - your chart template looks really clean. What colors are those?
thanks, you can just copy these colors and make your own template (dodge blue, orange red, aqua and red)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kerz.png Size: 4 KB
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #60
  • Feb 19, 2023 9:59am Feb 19, 2023 9:59am
Quoting OutThere
I am wondering, if you don't zoom in or out..... or squish the prices up and down on the right..... the angle value will not change. If no change by manipulating the chart, then the angle given will also stay consistent
//----

correct..... once applied, if you never fiddle with the chart that alexanders indicator will work as intended....... but the angle dissenters kept bringing up all the negative issues.....

there are several very good, at least by my definition, trend following systems on forex factory..... 4hr vegas tunnel, paradox system and fxigors tsr come to mind.....

the paradox system is somewhat clouded in secrecy and mystic but has a firm basis.... once you get rid of the smoke and mirrors you can strip it down 'just the facts ma'am', it really works......

the 4hr vegas tunnel is a simple in you face trend system.... it's something i use daily...... it will generate several hundred trades a month with ease..... last week the chf pairs were the best show in vegas......

the tsr system somehow landed in the commercial section.....

also raghee horners 34 ema wave......

there is no doubt in my mind, or accounts, trend systems properly applied work..... peyton does better than me and she's in the 9th grade.....

do they work every minute of every hour of every day of every week...... of course not.....

are they the absolute best..... probably not.....

i'm ok with that.....h
//-----


vegas system last week.....
//----

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdchf-h4-oanda-division1.png Size: 15 KB

//----

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-m5-oanda-division1-vegas.png Size: 43 KB
//----

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audchf-h4-oanda-division1-vegas-rules.png Size: 18 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
0 traders viewing now